Pac-10 Conference Quarterfinals Preview | |||
Preview by Scott Allen The dawn of the 2004 Pac-10 Tournament means different things to different people and teams. For the fans, it means three exciting days of basketball at a glamorous facility, but as Arizona head coach Lute Olson reiterated earlier this week, not everyone loves Championship Week. The Hall of Fame coach, who has long opposed a conference tournament along with Stanford head coach Mike Montgomery, lashed out at the conference’s athletic directors for scheduling decisions he says are killing the Pac-10’s national image. In particular, Olson cited the lack of non-conference play due to the Pac-10’s 18-game conference season. As for the Tournament, which Olson and Montgomery voted against reviving after a 12-year hiatus in 2002, Olson feels it should at least involve the entire conference. Under the new format, only the top eight teams make their way to Staples Center. For six of those eight, the next three days provide one final chance to dance. Stanford and Arizona are the only sure-bets on Selection Sunday with Washington sitting squarely on the bubble. The Huskies likely need at least a couple of wins to bolster their tournament resume. Meanwhile, Oregon and Cal, who at one point in the season figured to be solidifying their spot or playing for a higher seed in the field this weekend, must win the tournament to punch their tickets. Thursday could be the swan song for USC’s Desmon Farmer and the end of the road for UCLA, perhaps not soon enough for first-year head coach Ben Howland. Yes, the conference is down. Yes, it may send only two teams to the Big Dance. But if the last couple years are any indication, the next three days will include a few surprises and their fair share of intriguing storylines — like it or not. (1) Stanford vs. (8) Washington State Stanford, which has won 16 straight against the Cougars, has been upset in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament each of the past two years, both times by USC. While the Cardinal is likely relieved to not have to face Henry Bibby’s crew, with talk that anything short of cutting the nets on Sunday would jeopardize the Cardinal’s stranglehold on a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the pressure is on against a Washington State team hungry to finish the job it nearly completed in Pullman. Then again, pressure is nothing new for a Stanford team that played the majority of the season with the biggest bulls-eye in the nation on its back. Look for Pac-10 Player of the Year Josh Childress, who was held to 12 points on 3-for-11 shooting in last week’s meeting, to put the Cardinal back on track and for Lottich and point guard Chris Hernandez to rebound from a dreadful shooting performance against the Huskies. If the Cougars can control the tempo of the game as they did a week ago, and Marcus Moore gets hot, Stanford might have to sweat another one out down the stretch. Prediction: Stanford 62, Washington State 50 (4) California vs. (5) Oregon Cal’s Leon Powe, the Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, and fellow freshman Marquise Kately pose matchup problems down low for Oregon. The Oakland native’s 20 points and 11 boards paced the Bears in an 85-81 overtime victory in Berkeley two weeks ago. Oregon freshman point guard Aaron Brooks had a career-high 16 points in that game and his return to the lineup after suffering a fractured wrist in early January has paid immediate dividends for the Ducks’ offense. Whereas Cal’s offense relies heavily on feeding the ball inside, the Ducks opt for the long-range attack. Jackson, Davis and Joseph all shoot above 40 percent from beyond the arc. That puts the pressure on Cal guards Richard Midgley and Ayinde Ubaka, who will have to expend a lot of energy chasing the Ducks’ trio of threats from three. For Cal, the game could come down to the play of Amit Tamir, who has been inconsistent throughout the season and had just five points and three rebounds in the last meeting with Oregon. Prediction: Oregon 80, Cal 74 (2) Washington vs. (7) UCLA Last season, under former head coach Steve Lavin, the Bruins shocked Arizona in the first round of the tournament before losing to Oregon. Howland won the Big East Tournament at Pittsburgh last season, but he’s got his work cut out for him in Los Angeles, especially having to face one of the nation’s hottest teams. Even after the win over Stanford, with an RPI in the 70s, Washington NCAA chances are up in the air. A loss could very well pop their bubble, but look for Nate Robinson and the Huskies to run all day on the Bruins and advance to the semifinals with an easy win. Prediction: Washington 85, UCLA 68 (3) Arizona vs. (6) USC USC and Arizona boast two of the most athletic squads in the Pac-10 and Thursday’s game could turn into a track meet. The Wildcats should be focused on stopping Farmer, putting extra weight on the shoulders of the Craven and Stewart twins, as well as Pac-10 Newcomer of the Year Jeff McMillan. The matchup between USC’s Rory O’Neil and Channing Frye will be pivotal, as both big men will try to avoid getting lost in the shuffle of what should be a fast-paced game. O’Neill’s numbers are down as a junior but he ended the season scoring in double figures in four of his last five games, including a 16-point, 12-rebound, six-block performance against Cal. USC must also contend with a hot-shooting Salim Stoudamire, who, like Farmer, can drop 30-plus on any given day. Prediction: Arizona 89, USC 82
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