Forecasting the Field
Throw out all the conventional wisdom about the NCAA Tournament.
That’s the message the regular season and conference tournaments gave us this year. The regular season always tells us less than the whole story, but this year, it shows a picture that’s even tougher to decipher. A team entering the NCAA Tournament with 10 straight wins? Don’t immediately figure them to be a lock for the Final Four or to pull off an upset before losing to a top seed. A team entering with 3 straight losses? Don’t think they won’t turn it around and bow out in the first round. A team with plenty of seniors and hence postseason experience? They may lose to an inexperienced team.
Throw it all out for 2004.
It’s been said all year long that the NCAA Tournament will be wide open, that there are about 15-20 schools that could make a run to the Final Four and then win it all. Well, that’s certainly the case, more than any other season in recent memory. Picking the Final Four teams is tough enough, but this year it’s even tougher, and a large part of the difficulty prior to Selection Sunday was the fact that we don’t know the matchups. As much as any other year, how teams match up with opposing teams will say a lot about how far they can go.
Additionally, success and struggle has been fleeting this season; many teams had stretches where they would win several in a row, then lose both games in one week, then get back on the winning track. Only nine teams enter the NCAA Tournament with four or fewer losses, and the two teams that entered last weekend undefeated both lost a game in the season’s final nine days. (One team with three losses, Utah State, was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.) The team that many felt was the clear preseason top team, Connecticut, lost six games this season.
That means a number of teams could easily fool us all when we go through our brackets. Not only does a team’s seed only say so much by itself, but considering what goes into it, it can be even more deceiving. This year, seeds are almost irrelevant, and not just because there are a lot of very questionable seeds. It isn’t likely to be the first time all four top seeds make the Final Four, or that a No. 16 seed finally wins over a top seed, but it’s ripe for many upsets along the way, even mild upsets like the No. 9 seed winning over No. 8 (which happens frequently as it is). Many teams enter the tournament looking primed to over/underachieve based on their seed.
Wake Forest (19-9) could make a deep run, but they enter the NCAA Tournament having lost three straight games and that includes being bounced right away in the quarterfinal of the ACC Tournament. They have had ups and downs during the season, so the question is if they’ll right the ship and make a good run or finish on a complete tailspin with a fourth straight loss.
Another team that ended the season with a struggle is Providence (20-8), a No. 5 seed in the St. Louis region. The Friars looked strong most of the season, even having the highest RPI among Big East teams at a couple of points, but lost their last three games – two at home and then one in the Big East Tournament. The Friars have struggled on the defensive end after that was a staple of their winning ways most of the season. But they had a brief stretch earlier in the season where they didn’t play well, and they also won five games within ten days, so this team has shown they can rebound from poor outings. If they get past Pacific, a tough second round matchup with Kansas may loom.
One team that enters playing very well is up the road from Providence, Boston College. The Eagles (23-9) are the No. 6 seed in the St. Louis region and enter having won nine of their last ten games, including big wins over Providence to end the regular season and Syracuse in the Big East Tournament. After being snubbed from the NCAA last season, the Eagles made sure it didn’t happen again this year. The way they’re playing suggests they could make a nice surprise run, but they face a tough Utah team and a second round matchup with Georgia Tech likely looms.
Another team playing well is Washington (19-11), which got in thanks to winning 14 of their last 17 games. The Huskies are the only team to beat Stanford, and also beat Arizona three times. Whether or not they deserved the No. 8 seed that they got is debatable – they have the lowest RPI rating of any at-large team (60) by a good margin (Richmond is next at 47) – but if they beat UAB in the first round, they should give Kentucky some trouble in the second round.
Maryland (19-11) finished the season on a hot streak, including winning the ACC Tournament. But as the No. 4 seed in the Phoenix region, the young Terrapins also seem ripe to be victims of an upset. They made a good run at the end of the season and may ride the hot streak past the Sweet 16, but don’t be surprised if they’re eliminated quickly as well. They have a tough first round opponent in UTEP, and a win there may earn them a date with defending national champion Syracuse.
Illinois (24-6), the No. 5 seed in the Atlanta region, had won 12 games in a row before losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship. The Illini didn’t look good in that game, so the natural question arises: is the game an aberration or will the Illini continue the trend and lose early in the NCAA?
Want a completely unpredictable team? Try Arizona (20-9), the No. 9 seed in the Atlanta region. The Wildcats have been nothing special all year, finishing third in a weak Pac Ten and struggling with depth early in the season thanks to injuries. They are a dangerous team with their athleticism and their guards, but they have also looked very ordinary at times as well. The Wildcats could just as easily lose to Seton Hall in the first round as they could go to the Final Four.
Another team that is a wild card is the defending national champions, Syracuse (21-7). The Orangemen won easy games in non-conference play, not leaving the state of New York to play a game until January. They won a few tough games along the way to show that they were still strong, but then struggled for several weeks in Big East play before finishing the regular season with five straight wins. The Orangemen will need to get the most out of the 2-3 zone again, as their offense really struggled in Big East play after they scored over 80 points in three of their first four conference games. They could easily bow out to Brigham Young in the first round or make a run to the Final Four.
In many respects, a lot of teams could go under these descriptions; these are just a few examples. The hottest teams coming in stubbed their toes somewhere along the way during the season, and the teams that slumped into the tournament had some big wins and good stretches along the way. It isn’t because each team was inconsistent, it was because the playing field in college basketball is evening out to some degree. Even the teams that made it in after being on the bubble are as dangerous as some of the top seeds; these teams made it because they have proven that they can beat top competition.
An exciting NCAA Tournament is in front of us. The field is certainly as wide open as ever, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Final Four does not consist of a single No. 1 or No. 2 seeds; it would be a fitting conclusion to this season. Enjoy the many great games, and remember to throw out all the conventional wisdom about picking the teams in your brackets.
