Tuesday Morning Point Guard
by Dean Austin
Ten College Basketball Thoughts
1. Utah State got screwed, completely and utterly. Richmond makes the field on what I can only see as the strength of beating Kansas who have been over rated all year. Is this the decision that forces the Aggies Stew Morrill to move to a higher profile program?
2. Loved the smack talk between Billy Packer and St. Joseph’s coach Phil Martelli over the decision to make Saint Joseph’s a No. 1 seed. Packer is right for what it is worth, there’s no way any rational evaluation of a team’s strength puts the Hawks higher than a No. 3 seed.
3. I’d have put Oklahoma State at a No. 1 instead of Kentucky; I don’t agree with them being given the top No. 1 seed at all. The Wildcats got swept by Georgia. Once is acceptable, twice should lose you a No. 1 seed.
4. The St. Louis Regional bracket. By my reckoning this is the 2nd easiest bracket. Kentucky should waltz into the Elite Eight with only No. 5 Providence a potential foe. I have grave doubts about No. 8 Washington even being in the tournament and the match up with No. 9 UAB is a yawner. Kansas as noted above has been over rated all year and a No. 4 seed is a joke. Illinois-Chicago at No. 13 has a serious chance of knocking off the Jayhawks and if they don’t Providence should.
4a: In the lower half of the St. Louis bracket is the only real quality. Gonzaga at No. 2 should have no problems with No. 15 Valparaiso but then faces a very interesting potential battle against No. 7 Michigan State. This assumes that the Spartans get past Nevada which is most certainly not a given. Boston College is a ridiculously over rated No. 6 seed and my first significant upset pick is No. 11 Utah to rain on the Eagles parade. Georgia Tech at No. 3 needs to make sure it doesn’t look past No. 14 Northern Iowa but if Paul Hewitt’s squad is successful they should enjoy a run to the Elite Eight.
4b: Sweet Sixteen Kentucky vs. Providence and Georgia Tech vs. Gonzaga.
5. My pick as the toughest bracket is the East Rutherford regional bracket. I’ve discussed in previous columns how I believe Saint Joseph’s could possibly the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed but I’m not hoping for it. The Hawks are a great story and one that I would hate to see end in infamy. Assuming that Nelson et al. make it through to the 2nd round I would be most surprised if they beat the winner of No. 8 Texas Tech and No. 9 Charlotte. Down at No. 5 Florida is a classic under achiever in the upset mode, the problem is that No. 12 Manhattan even with a gaudy 24-5 mark has not inspired confidence this season. Regardless of the outcome I see the winner getting steam rolled by No. 4 Wake Forest on their march to the Elite Eight.
5a: In the lower half of the East Rutherford bracket is the best No. 2 and No. 3 combination, Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh. I’d be most surprised if No. 6 Wisconsin has any hassle with No. 11 Richmond and Bo Ryan’s Badgers could give Pitt all they can handle in the 2nd round. The over rated No. 7 Memphis Tigers do battle with the season ending collapse of No. 10 South Carolina for the prize of being beaten up by Eddie Sutton’s Cowboys. I’ve a sneaking suspicion South Carolina pips Memphis in round one.
5b: Sweet Sixteen Texas Tech vs. Wake Forest and Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State.
6. Each year Duke gets an easy ride to the Elite Eight and each year the talking heads on TV talk about how their regional is the toughest. This year the Atlanta regional wins the Krispy Kreme official Donut bracket award. Initially looks cool, but kind of soft and sickly in the middle. Cincinnati No. 4, Illinois No. 5, North Carolina No. 6, Xavier No. 7 and Seton Hall No. 8. I seriously think the committee has developed a sense of humor. Screamingly over rated, the lot of them. Duke’s only potential hiccup on an easy jaunt to the Elite Eight is if No. 9 Arizona beats No. 8 Seton Hall and Lute Olsen gets to play his starters the whole game. The Wildcats are supremely talented but woefully thin. Down at No. 4 and No. 5 are the tournaments two biggest upsets waiting to happen. Murray State at No. 12 and East Tennessee State at No. 13 could easily bounce Illinois and Cincinnati respectively and set up a match up of the two double digit seeds for the right to go to the Sweet Sixteen.
6a: In the lower half I really like the chances of No. 11 Air Force to upset No. 6 North Carolina. Texas should win through against Princeton, although that is certainly not a given. Curiously this sets up the match up I discussed in a column early in the season, Air Force vs. Texas. Then I hinted that such a match up might be difficult for the Longhorns. I still think it is but I’m going to hedge the other way. Meanwhile I can’t get excited by No. 2 Mississippi State but I’m not sure either No. 7 Xavier or No. 10 Louisville can beat the Bulldogs. If Rick Pitino’s squad makes it by the Musketeers, and I rate that 50/50 at best, then you could see a nice upset. This regional has an Elite Eight of Duke vs. Texas written all over it and anything else would be a huge surprise.
6b: Sweet Sixteen Duke vs. East Tennessee State and Texas vs. Mississippi State.
7. Lastly the Phoenix regional bracket is a minefield waiting to blow up in Stanford’s face. The No. 1 Cardinal shouldn’t have any problems with Texas San Antonio although the Southland conference’s leading scorer LeRoy Hurd could go off on the night. However a 30 point loss to Oklahoma State is more indicative of the Roadrunners true caliber. Either No. 8 Alabama with the widely reported “toughest schedule in the country” or No. 9 Southern Illinois could cause trouble in the second round but it would be a huge surprise if Stanford didn’t cruise to the Elite Eight. Defending National Champion Syracuse is a No. 5 seed in a match up against No. 12 BYU. I suspect a lot of “experts” will pick this as a classic No. 12 vs. No. 5 upset but in fact I think the Orangemen beat BYU handily.
7a: When folks complain about the East Coast bias it is too easy to point to examples such as Maryland being given a No. 4 seed to “prove” the argument. Yes the Terps won the ACC tournament, and yes the ACC is the best conference in America. But one great run does not negate a so-so regular season where Gary Williams’ team finished 16-11 overall and had a losing conference record. That is not under any circumstances the making of a No. 4 seed. Their opponents, No. 13 seed UTEP are the team I suspect most commentators will say got in at the expense of Utah State. And they might be correct but to overlook the Miners would be a serious mistake. This one has upset written all over it this year.
7b: The lower half of the Phoenix bracket contains a couple of lower seeds with real potential to go far. Vanderbilt at No. 6 and Dayton at No. 10 were both ranked in the Top 25 during the season Again a trendy pick will be to take No. 11 Western Michigan over Vanderbilt but I’m taking the Commodores to go through. The Wolfpack of North Carolina State are at No. 3 and may have their hands full in the second round with Kevin Stallings’ squad. Dayton at No. 10 should knock off No. 7 DePaul but are unlikely to beat an at full strength Connecticut squad. The Huskies have lost focus throughout the season and any such lapse this year will be punished.
7c: Sweet Sixteen Stanford vs. Syracuse and North Carolina State vs. Connecticut.
8. Following up on my fascination with the Assist to Turn Over ratio here are the details for the top four seeds in each regional. I’m less interested in Saint Joseph’s, Gonzaga and even Cincinnati, which can be attributed to good teams playing lesser opponents but I think the ratio for Mississippi State and Maryland is very illuminating
1.4:1 Saint Joseph’s, Gonzaga
1.3:1 Connecticut, Cincinnati
1.2:1 Stanford, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas
1.1:1 NC State
1:1 Kentucky, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
1:1.1 Mississippi State, Maryland
8a: Mississippi State’s first opponent Monmouth has only a 1:1 ratio but both Xavier and Louisville have a 1.1:1. Meanwhile UTEP is even better at 1.2:1.
9. Nine of my Top 10 coaches made the Big Dance. Kelvin Sampson letting down the side
10. Game(s) I’d pay to watch this week: All of them, there is NO better time than the Big Dance. But if I had to pick one site it would be Columbus Ohio for the match ups between Illinois, Murray State, Cincinnati and East Tennessee State.
Five Non-College Basketball Sports thoughts
1. Nice pick up by the Cowboys picking up Drew Henson for a 3rd round draft pick. It’s quite possible that the former Michigan signal caller doesn’t pan out but a 3rd round pick is a good price to pay for gambling on someone who would have been a top 10 selection in the first round if he had stayed to his senior year in Ann Arbor.
2. I’m torn by the Todd Bertuzzi – Steve Moore incident in Vancouver. Certainly Bertuzzi was out of line and his suspension was an appropriate one. Yet this was in a very real way the continuation of the Steve Moore – Markus Nasland incident previously when Naslund was concussed and missed three games. I don’t think this is as “simple” as everyone makes out even if you do have to throw the book at Bertuzzi for unless the underlining issues are dealt with this, unfortunately, will happen again.
3. I suspect the Allen Iverson – Chris Ford run in is the final straw in Philadelphia. Iverson will be in a different uniform next season.
4. Do I see another Yankees – Red Sox battle shaping up over the prospect of trading for Pirates starter Kris Benson. Eight years removed from being the No. 1 overall pick in baseball, Benson still has some serious talent that has been derailed by injuries.
5. Jeff Garcia signs with the Browns but what gets my interest is the projections of Kellen Winslow Jr. being picked 7th overall by those same Cleveland-ites. If so he would be a perfect target for Garcia in running the offense – and I hate taking TE’s in the first round.
And a couple of Non-Sporting Thoughts
1. Was listening to AOL’s Movie Soundtrack radio station the other day. It’s a nice way to hear music from movies I’ve never seen. On came Ashokan Farewell from the album Song of the Civil War. Not sure whether that was related to the mini series or not but what a hauntingly beautiful strings rendition from Jay Ungar. Superb!
2. One show this season that has snuck up on me has been NCIS. I’ve always liked Mark Harmon, and he’s got a nice quirky supporting cast in Sasha Alexander, Michael Weatherly, Pauley Perrette and the always brilliant David McCallum. I’m reminded a lot of Kate Jackson and her character from Charlie’s Angels when I see Sasha Alexander.
3. Knowing my interest in soundtracks your erstwhile editor recommended The Last of the Mohicans which had somehow slipped under my radar. The Trevor Jones and Randy Edelman score has soaring themes more reminiscent of a Hans Zimmer score than say a John Barry but wonderful regardless.
