First Round Preview – Phoenix Region
by Jim Woods
No. 5 Syracuse vs. No. 12 BYU
The returning National Champs get to start their journey towards a repeat title performance in the city Carmelo Anthony now calls home. Last year was truly special for the Orange, but this year the road appears to be a lot tougher. It starts Thursday in Denver when they face BYU. The Cougars comes out of the Mountain West Conference on a nice run. They have won 9 of their last 10 games, with the only loss being to Utah in the conference tournament semifinals. Earlier this season the Cougars had their most impressive win when they knocked off Oklahoma State. Syracuse played very well down the stretch of the Big East regular season (wins over Pitt and Connecticut) but then did not look impressive in a quarterfinal loss in the tournament to Boston College.
Syracuse is very much a two-dimensional team offensively. Gerry McNamara (16.2 ppg) and Hakim Warrick (19.6 ppg) are clearly the two best players for the Orangemen. Syracuse has not been able to find a third player to really step up since Billy Edelin left the team midseason. If either of the top two has an off game or gets in foul trouble, the Orange can struggle to find points. BYU is led by star center Rafael Araujo (18.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg) who is among the 30 finalists for the Wooden Award. Araujo is a tough match-up for anybody, and Syracuse will look to collapse their patented 2-3 zone around the big Brazilian. Normally, I would say the zone will really limit the Cougars interior play, but I just watch the Orangemen lose to BC because Craig Smith dominated in the paint. BYU is capable of knocking in three-point shots (forward Luiz Lemes shoots 41% behind the arc) and will not hesitate to take a few early to stretch the defense and open up gaps to enter the ball to Araujo.
What Will Work for Syracuse: The Orangemen need to establish a third scorer early in this game. It doesn’t matter if it is Demetris Nichols, Josh Pace, or Louis McCroskey, but they have to find somebody to take the pressure of the big two. McNamara must have a good game shooting the ball from long range, so Syracuse needs to run some offense to get him free looks.
What Will Work BYU: Get the ball inside to Araujo. He is the horse who they have ridden this far, and they can’t stop now. Interior passing and movement in their zone offense will be the key for the Cougars. Warrick is the Orange’s leading scorer, but the focus defensively for BYU must be McNamara. He needs to be pressured for 40 minutes in the thin mountain air to wear down his legs.
Prediction: I don’t like ‘Cuse having to travel to Denver to take on a team from another mountain state. Playing at the altitude in Denver won’t nearly effect BYU they way it will effect the Orangemen. Syracuse is caught in a catch-22. To get easy shots for some of their complimentary players they can get out and push the ball. But pushing the ball in this spot will cause fatigue. Syracuse also is a very poor free throw shooting team (63.6%). If you exclude McNamara, that number drops to 57.9%. I don’t like that number in a close game. The interior of Syracuse’s zone was exposed in the Big East tournament, and Araujo is as good of a big man as there is in the country. He will be a load to handle inside. Craig Forth and Jeremy McNeil must have big games defensively for Syracuse. I don’t see either of them stepping up. I love the experience of McNamara and Warrick, but if either of them does not play well Syracuse is not a dominant team. Every year a twelve knocks off a five and I like that here. BYU wins a thriller 69-67.
