Final Four Preview
(1) Duke vs. (2) Connecticut
The second national semifinal Saturday features the lone No. 1 seed to make the Final Four, Duke, and the preseason favorite to win the national championship, No. 2 Connecticut. The winner of this game will be favored to win the championship.
For Connecticut, the road to the Final Four has been littered with underwhelming competition – No. 15 Vermont, No. 7 DePaul, No. 6 Vanderbilt and No. 8 Alabama. The Huskies have won every game by at least 16 points. Each of these opponents is worthy of praise – no team that qualifies in the NCAA Tournament is bad per se – but none of them approaches Connecticut’s talent level.
The most intriguing story for the Huskies to this point has been the health of junior dominator Emeka Okafor. When his back appeared to be fairly reliable, Okafor suffered a stinger in his neck and shoulder during the Huskies’ romp against Alabama in the Elite Eight. He reinjured the neck and shoulder in practice Wednesday, but coach Jim Calhoun expected Okafor to back for a full practice Friday and to play at full strength Saturday.
Connecticut will need Okafor at full strength against Duke and sophomore forward Shelden Williams. Williams’ Blue Devils have been one of the more impressive teams in this tournament. Duke manhandled No. 16 Alabama State and No. 8 Seton Hall. The Blue Devils won tough games against No. 5 Illinois and No. 7 Xavier to earn the team’s second trip to the Final Four in the new millennium.
The Blue Devils have their own health concerns to address. Senior guard Chris Duhon has played in the tournament despite sore ribs, a product of a run-in with a camera in the ACC championship game against Maryland. Duhon and Okafor will be the keys to the game Saturday. The player who can contribute the most to his team will guide his team to a national championship appearance.
For Duke, Duhon is the engine that drives the team on both ends of the court. Offensively, Duhon orchestrates the attack that frustrates so many opponents. He cuts through defenses, forcing defenders to collapse, which invariably leaves sophomore guard J.J. Redick or junior guard Daniel Ewing open on the wings. Duhon has an uncanny ability to sense where his teammates are and deliver crisp, accurate passes that frequently result in easy buckets. Or if he cannot penetrate, Duhon is equally capable of getting the ball into the paint to Williams or freshman forward Luol Deng. When Duke desperately needs a score, Duhon is the man that coach Mike Krzyzewski can rely on to drain a deep three pointer or kiss an off-balance layup off the glass.
For Connecticut, Okafor is the difference maker. He can single-handedly erase an opposing team’s inside game. Against Duke, Okafor will have to shut down Williams, Deng and sophomore forward Shavlik Randolph. Williams will present the greatest challenge, but Okafor’s natural ability and experience gives the Huskies the edge. Offensively, Okafor must force Duke to collapse the defense, allowing Connecticut’s best shooters, junior guard Ben Gordon and sophomore Rashad Anderson, to get open looks.
If guard play dictates the results of the game, Duke has the advantage. But if Connecticut establishes a dominant half-court game, in addition to the Huskies’ reliable fast break opportunities, the Huskies will be able to run this game.
Prediction: Duke 79, Connecticut 72
