Atlantic 10 Conference Preview – Part Two
In Part One of the A-10 Preview, we handed out Preseason Hardware, and projected the East Division. Below, in Part Two, we’ll finish up by previewing the West Division.
West Division
1. George Washington Colonials
18-12 (11-5, A-10), 2nd in A-10 West
Projected starting five:
PG Carl Elliot (8.4 ppg, 4.3 apg)
SG T.J. Thompson (13.2 ppg, 3.4 apg)
SF Omar Williams (7.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg)
PF Mike Hall (10.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg)
C Alexander Kireev (1.5 ppg, 1.0 rpg)
The reason why the Colonials are picked to finish first in the A-10 West here and in virtually every other conference preview is because they have every key player from last year’s team returning. Senior forward Tamal Forchion is the only player to have started a game (14) in 2003-04 that is not on GW’s roster. Forchion transferred to West Georgia due to the breakout seasons of fellow forwards Mike Hall and Pops Mensah-Bonsu. Redshirt freshman center Jaaron Greene has recovered from a thumb injury that kept him out all last season. Greene, at 6-foot-11 and 254 pounds, will provide much-needed muscle near the basket.
The Colonials only have one new face on their roster this year, freshman Maureece Rice. Despite the depth at guard (and at every other position) that GW has, Rice may be able to contribute as a scorer. A Philadelphia native, Rice broke Wilt Chamberlain’s city high school scoring record with 2,206 career points.
Greene’s thumb obviously has to be a concern for GW, but word is that it’s fine and he won’t be affected by it at all. That’s good news to Colonial fans because even though Kireev is currently starting down low, Greene should get most of the minutes.
GW was selected to finish near the bottom of the A-10 West last season, and with good reason. With a roster loaded with freshmen and sophomores (there were 10 of them combined), they were expected to struggle due to their youth and inexperience. The Colonials proved otherwise, finishing second in the division ahead of Richmond and Xavier, who both received NCAA Tournament bids. Two players that aren’t in the starting lineup, Bonsu and sophomore guard J.R. Pinnock, both averaged over 20 minutes per game last season. They will continue to contribute off the bench, and will allow coach Karl Hobbs to substitute in fresh legs without a drop off in talent. Although they won 18 games last year as mostly freshmen and sophomores, I believe that their inexperience hurt them on the road, where they went 5-9. This year the Colonials are still young (only 1 senior starter, Thompson) but are no longer inexperienced. That is a dangerous combination, and don’t be surprised to see the Colonials win the division by a couple games. GW could set the tone for an A-10 championship and NCAA Tournament season with a season-opening road win over Wake Forest.
2. Xavier Musketeers
26-11 (10-6, A-10), T-3rd A-10 West
Projected starting five:
G Dedrick Finn (8.5 ppg, 3.35 apg, .378 3-pt %)
G Churchill Odia (12.0 ppg, 8.5 apg, 5.1 rpg – high school)
F Keith Jackson (2.4 ppg, 1.5 rpg)
F Justin Doellman (7.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, .425 3-pt %)
F Brian Thornton (11.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg) – Vanderbilt, 2 years ago
The Musketeers lost Lionel Chalmers, Romain Sato and Anthony Myles, their top three scorers from last year’s Elite 8 team but have younger players that are ready to step up and fill their shoes. Although Sato was a preseason Wooden Award candidate, Chalmers may be the toughest of the group to replace. After Xavier struggled early in the season, Chalmers elevated his game to lead the Musketeers’ March charge. Finn and Odia, both of whom are capable of playing point guard, will fill in nicely, as Finn served as Chalmers’ understudy the past two seasons and Odia is highly regarded as one of the top freshmen in the country. At 6-foot-9 and with a deadly outside shot, Doellman is a nightmare to defenders. He can shoot over smaller players and can take most players his size to the basket. Expect a breakout year from him, as he has averaged 21.5 points in two preseason games thus far. Thornton, a transfer from Vanderbilt, is fully capable of producing the same numbers that Myles did last season (10.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg). The Musketeers did what good programs do – immediately replace the talent that was lost from the season before.
As mentioned above, the 6-foot-6 Odia, who was heavily recruited by Rick Pitino, should be able to contribute immediately. Also expected to contribute are 6-foot-3 freshman guard Stanley Burrell and 6-foot-9 freshman forward Josh Duncan, who are rated among the nation’s top 250 players from the Class of 2004 by most publications. Too bad for Xavier that games are only 40 minutes long – all its talent may not get the playing time it deserves.
After leading his team to its first-ever Elite 8 appearance, former head coach Thad Matta became a hot commodity. After Ohio State’s Jim O’Brien was fired in June for giving money to a former recruit, the Buckeyes went after Matta and got their man. Matta’s associate head coach from a year ago, Sean Miller, was selected to replace him as the Musketeers’ head coach. Miller was supposedly chosen as the replacement to prevent Matta recruits from jumping ship. He may lack head coaching experience, but Miller won’t lose any games for Xavier – he’s been with the program for several years and knows what it takes to win. Miller is also an excellent recruiter, so expect the Musketeers to become a very familiar bunch in March.
On paper, it appears that George Washington is the hands-down favorite to win the A-10 West, but the Musketeers are also a dangerous, young team. Finn’s intensity and aggressiveness are contagious, and Doellman should average at least 15 points per game. Thornton will be a solid, consistent presence in the post, something that Xavier didn’t have last season. If the Musketeers’ group of freshmen are as good as they are hyped to be, the losses of Chalmers, Sato and Myles may not be as crippling as once thought. Although I do think that GW has the better team, I would not be surprised if Xavier won the division. But because of all the uncertainties (players stepping into bigger roles, a lot of newcomers, a new coach, etc.) I have to pick them to finish second. A post-season bid is definitely in the works for Xavier, but it’s up to their newcomers as to whether they’ll be dancing come March.
3. Dayton Flyers
24-9 (12-4, A-10), 1st in A-10 West
Projected starting five:
PG Warren Williams (4.9 ppg, .408 3-pt %)
SG Mark Jones (9.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg)
SF Marques Bennett (2.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg)
PF Norman Plummer (26 ppg, 9.1 rpg) – high school
C James Cripe (1.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg)
Much like Xavier, Dayton lost its three top scorers from 2003-04 in Ramod Marshall, Keith Waleskowski and Sean Finn. Unlike Xavier, the Flyers don’t quite have the same amount of proven talent stepping in to take their place. Junior point guard Warren Williams, after being a steady backup to Marshall the last two seasons, will finally get a chance to start for Dayton. Williams won’t be spectacular, but expect him to effectively run the offense and average around 8 or 9 a game while being the Flyers’ best outside shooter. Waleskowski’s hustle and Finn’s size will not be replaced this season, but freshman Norman Plummer and sophomore James Cripe will give Dayton’s opponents a look they’re not used to seeing from Flyer forwards. Plummer is extremely athletic and quick for someone his size (6’7″, 215 lbs.) and Cripe, unlike Finn, has a soft touch on his mid-range jumper.
For the first few games of the season, it may be a good idea for Dayton to wear nametags, as the Flyer faithful won’t recognize most players on the roster. Five freshmen join the team in coach Brian Gregory’s second year at the helm, including Plummer, who will likely win the battle for the power forward spot over fellow freshman Chris Alvarez. Whoever loses that battle will back up both forward spots along with another freshman, Jimmy Binnie. Although only 6-foot-8, redshirt freshman Nick Stafford will give Cripe some competition at center. The freshman that may contribute the most to Dayton, on the scoreboard at least, is 6-foot-1 guard Brian Roberts, who was the Division I High School Player of the Year in Ohio in 2003-04. If the Flyers decide to go with a three-guard lineup, Roberts has a strong possibility to start.
There are three possibilities for Dayton this season: Its new players and freshmen could come up huge and the Flyers would push for first place in the division, only some of those players will step up and Dayton will win about 16 games or so, or the team will fail to gel and they will have a down year for the first time in half a decade. A big problem for Dayton may be its backcourt scoring. As the team’s lone senior, Mark Jones must prove that he can consistently knock down the outside shot, as he often failed to last season. Junior swingman Marques Bennett plays mostly for defensive purposes, and will split time with another junior swingman, Monty Scott. Scott is one of the Flyers’ most athletic players, and is a much better scorer than Bennett. Cripe showed promise in limited time last season, most notably with a nine point, three rebound performance in just 14 minutes against Xavier at home. There are a lot of variables for the 2004-05 Flyers, but if Gregory can figure out how to maximize his team’s potential, Dayton may be able to eek out its sixth consecutive 20-win season.
4. Duquesne Dukes
12-17 (6-10 A-10), 5th in A-10 West
Projected starting five:
PG Martin Osimani (4.5 ppg, 5.9 apg)
SG Bryant McAllister (11.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg)
SF Jack Higgins (9.7 ppg, .457 3-pt %)
PF Kieron Achara (5.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg)
C Sean McKeon (17.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 4.8 bpg) – high school
The Dukes lost two seniors who started every game last year in Elijah Palmer and Jimmy Tricco. Palmer was easily Duquesne’s best player from a year ago, averaging 13.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest. Tricco was one of the team’s best shooters, making 58 three-pointers and shooting 81 percent from the charity stripe. Duquesne’s backcourt, which has the potential to be one of the best in the conference, will pick up the slack from the departure of their two senior stars. Osimani, who led the A-10 in assists last season, is a prototypical pass-first point guard, meaning that he runs an offense beautifully and distributes the ball evenly, but couldn’t throw a pea into the ocean (.315 FG%). McAllister is extremely quick off the dribble, and Osimani will look to find him cutting to the basket. This combination will lead to a lot of free throws and easy buckets for the junior guard. Higgins was one of the A-10’s best shooters in 2003-04, and may emerge as the best now that he finally has a chance to start for the Dukes.
McKeon, a 6-foot-10, 240-pound freshman, may get a chance to start for Duquesne simply because he has the best shooting touch of their big men and will mesh the best with the Dukes’ strong backcourt. Junior JUCO transfer Keith Gayden, who is considered to be a stronger rebounder and defender than Palmer, will also be ready to immediately contribute. Providing depth up front will be 6-foot-7 home-schooled freshman Chauncey Duke and 6-foot-6 freshman swingman DeVario Hudson. Unfortunately for Duquesne, its best recruit for this season, sophomore forward Ryan Lambert, will have to sit out a year after transferring from Western Kentucky.
The Dukes, along with the rest of the A-10 West, are very intriguing. On one hand, McAllister and Higgins could blossom and become a very poor man’s version of Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, or they could progress as planned and have solid seasons. With Duquesne depending so much on their backcourt to score, how McAllister and Higgins develop will directly affect how the Dukes’ season will go. Osimani will always be an excellent distributor, and if his shooting touch improves (it couldn’t get much worse), Duquesne’s backcourt could carry them – but not very far. The Dukes are not deep enough or talented enough up front to compete with the A-10 elite, but could finish as high as third if they can pull off an upset against Dayton.
5. Richmond Spiders
20-13 (10-6 A-10), T-3rd in A-10 West
Projected starting five:
PG Daon Merritt (5.1 ppg, 2.5 apg)
SG Courtney Nelson (16.0 ppg, 7.0 apg) – high school
SF Jamaal Scott (4.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg)
PF Gaston Moliva (5.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg)
C Kevin Steenberge (4.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg)
Following the trend of its division rivals (excluding George Washington), Richmond graduated key cogs from its 2003-04 squad. Gone are Mike Skrocki (16.0 ppg), Tony Dobbins (11.1 ppg, A-10 Defensive Player of the Year) and Reggie Brown (7.5 ppg), leaving the Spiders with a lot of role players and unproven freshmen. It is possible that some of these players may blossom, but it would take a coaching miracle from Jerry Wainwright to return to post-season play with this bunch. One of those players that could pick up the slack is sophomore forward Gaston Moliva, who was named to the A-10 All-Rookie team a year ago. Moliva is a solid 6-foot-7, 240-pound banger that fits in perfectly with Wainwright’s physical style of play. Last season Moliva was too physical for his own good, however, and led the Spiders in personal fouls despite averaging only 19 minutes per game. Also ready to showcase his skills is another sophomore, point guard Daon Merritt. If Merritt has a glaring weakness it would be his outside shooting, as he only connected on 34 percent of his field goal attempts last season. Despite his low shooting percentage, he has shown a knack for scoring, and averaged 24 points against weak competition in Cancun this summer.
Also ready to lend a hand is prize freshman recruit Courtney Nelson. The player of the year in New Jersey last year, Nelson was a consistent scorer throughout high school, averaging at least 15 points per game each of his four years. Drew Crank, a 6-foot-10 center out of Virginia, will also look to contribute right away. If Moliva continues to be foul prone, he should get plenty of chances for playing time.
The Spiders have several players that may have trouble shaking off past injuries. Merritt missed his entire senior year of high school due to a broken foot and Crank played only nine games last season before breaking his hand.
Richmond’s success depends heavily on the ability of Wainwright to maximize the talent of his young team. A well-respected coach and an excellent X’s and O’s man, he may be able to do that. Even if he does, however, it appears that this Spiders team is a year away from repeating the success of a year ago. But that’s alright – they’re the only Division I program with the nickname of Spiders. That counts for something right? Their brutal non-conference schedule will not help matters any, as they play five teams that reached the NCAA Tournament in 2003-04. Don’t expect Richmond to pull an upset like they did at Kansas last winter, but don’t be surprised if they take down a few of the A-10’s best teams.
6. La Salle Explorers
10-20 (5-11, A-10), 6th in A-10 West
Projected starting five:
PG Jermaine Thomas (7.2 ppg, 2.4 apg)
SG Darnell Harris (19.5 ppg, 4.0 apg) – high school
SF Mike St. John (4.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg)
PF Steven Smith (17.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg)
C Roman Narmbaye (10 ppg, 10 rpg) – high school, 2 years ago
It’s one thing to lose several players to graduation or the NBA, but La Salle experienced a different kind of hurt – losing three players and its head coach to a rape scandal. The Explorers lost Gary Neal (17.9 ppg), Mike Cleaves (6.9 ppg) and Dzalfo Larkai (3.6 ppg) after the three players allegedly raped an intoxicated women’s basketball player who was attending a camp at the school. Former head coach Billy Hahn resigned after supposedly discouraging the alleged victim from going to the police. If that weren’t enough, La Salle also lost David Bell (6.1 ppg) and Rasheed Quadri (4.6 ppg) to graduation. Obviously, the Explorers are desperate for someone to step up and soften the blow of losing their top scorer and four other players. That someone may be Narmbaye, who redshirted last season because of a knee injury. At 6-foot-10, his presence down low may take some pressure of Smith, who is a preseason Wooden Award candidate. Smith will also appreciate Narmbaye’s help on the glass, as La Salle was out-rebounded by an average of 2.9 boards per game last season. Junior guard Jermaine Thomas, who returns as the Explorers’ top outside shooter (.328 3-pt %) and defender (1.14 spg) will also be forced into a larger role.
If La Salle’s incoming freshmen thought that they were not going to have a large impact this season, they were very mistaken. Harris, an explosive 6-foot-1 guard, was named Baltimore’s “Best Athletic Rising Star” a year ago. This may have something to do with his 38-inch vertical leap, but I don’t want to jump to conclusions. Freshman forward Sherman Diaz and 5-foot-8 freshman guard Richard “Tabby” Cunningham will also have an excellent opportunity to earn a lot of playing time.
The Explorers named former Maine head coach John Giannini as the man who would replace Hahn and hopefully turn La Salle into a reputable program again. That is usually done by winning, and winning often, so this cleansing process may take awhile. At Maine, Giannini recorded a school-record 125 wins against 111 losses. He also led the Black Bears to 20-win seasons on two occasions, something that no other Maine coach has ever done.
There is no way to sugarcoat this: La Salle will be terrible this year. The Explorers will have to search long and far for teams that they will be able to beat. It’s very unfortunate too, because coming into the season they had two promising young players in Smith and Neal and several returning role players. They still wouldn’t have been able to compete with the likes of George Washington and Massachusetts, but they will now struggle to win more than five or six games. With only 10 players on its roster, I don’t even want to think about what would happen if someone got injured and missed a large part of the season. These guys really don’t deserve this – they are paying the price for the mistakes that their teammates made. It’s an unfortunate situation, and I hope that the Explorers prove me wrong and have a good year.
Saint Joseph’s won’t win 30 games this year. Xavier or Dayton probably won’t win the A-10 West. There may be a lot of things that seem strange about the 2004-05 A-10 season, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t be another exciting year of college hoops. After earning four NCAA Tournament berths last year, the A-10 made a push to be considered a major Division I basketball conference. The A-10 elite, which this year appears to be George Washington and Massachusetts, have the talent to achieve some success in the Big Dance. Hopefully they do, because it’s about time that the nation realizes that A-10 basketball is about more than Jameer Nelson, Xavier’s miraculous tournament run and teams with unique nicknames (i.e., Bonnies, Colonials, Dukes, Explorers, Flyers, Minutemen and Spiders).
[Back to Part One of the Atlantic 10 Preview]
