Sun Belt Conference Season Preview
The entire Sun Belt Conference rejoiced during the 2003-04 season as Western Kentucky, who had dominated during the first few seasons of the millennium, finally returned back to earth. With the fall of the Hilltoppers to a fifth-place finish and quarterfinal loss in the conference tournament (on their home court no less), several teams made a run at claiming the newly departed throne. While many teams stepped up to the challenge, the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana Lafayette proved to be a notch above the rest. The Cajuns claimed both the regular season and conference championships.
This season, the top teams from ’03-’04 will again remain near the top, while the league’s bottom half will also stay put. Louisiana Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock, the defending Sun Belt West Division champs, are the league’s top two teams this season and will battle for the title. Arkansas State will make the biggest improvement, as its two stars will finally carry their team on their backs. New Orleans will slip a bit from its surprise finish last season, despite the services of sophomore sensation Bo McCalebb. And the dark horse candidate to win the league is Middle Tennessee State.
Towards the bottom of the league, New Mexico State, Denver, South Alabama and North Texas will go head-to-head twice to determine who qualifies for the conference tournament whose season will end with the close of the regular season. Florida International will once again bring up the rear. And the once feared Hilltoppers? Middle of the pack seems to be their new role.
Preseason Awards
First Team All-Sun Belt
Bo McCalebb, New Orleans
Mike Dean, Middle Tennessee State
Brian Mitchell, Louisiana Lafayette
J.J. Montgomery, Arkansas State
Dewarick Spencer, Arkansas State
MVP – McCalebb, New Orleans
Team-by-team capsules (In order of Hoopville’s predicted finish)
1. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
(17-12, 9-5) 1st in Sun Belt East Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Zack Graber, G
Brandon Freeman, G
Josh Jacobs, F
Richard Hardman, F
Darius Eason, C
Key games – Non-conference: vs. Southern Illinois (Dec. 7); Conference: home-and-home with Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (Feb. 26).
The Trojans are not flashy. They do not win games with style and flair. Plenty of other Sun Belt teams receive more attention. But in 2004-05, they will be the best team and that’s all that matters. Returning four of five starters and a solid bench, Arkansas-Little Rock should have enough firepower and experience to upend defending champion Louisiana Lafayette. But it will not be easy.
Brandon Freeman returns as the team’s leader following a solid first season with the Trojans. The senior junior college transfer averaged 13.5 points per game last season, a number he will likely stay close to this season. An excellent outside shooter, Freeman can take games over but will not need to with ALR’s balanced attack. Josh Jacobs plays more like a guard, making the combination of Jacobs, Freeman and Zack Graber a formable backcourt.
The Trojans are small upfront, yet overcame the same problem last season. Despite having no regular players taller than 6-foot-9, ALR out-rebounded its opponents last season (37 to 35.1). Last season the team rebounded by committee, led by Richard Hardman (6.3) and Darius Eason (4.6). The team is solid on both ends of the floor; not spectacular, simply efficient.
Southern Illinois will pose the Trojans a winnable non-conference game against a upper echelon opponent, opposed to their road matches against Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech and Mississippi State. Earning a split against Arkansas State and Western Kentucky should suffice en route for a conference championship. A sweep against either would be bonus, being swept by either will be detrimental. More than likely, its season finale against Louisiana Lafayette in Little Rock will determine this season’s regular season champ.
2. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
(20-9, 12-3) 1st in Sun Belt West Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Tiras Wade, G
Orien Greene, G
Dwayne Mitchell, F
Brian Hamilton, F
Chris Cameron, C
Key games – Non-conference: at North Carolina State (Dec. 15), against Southern Illinois (Jan. 5); Conference: against Western Kentucky (Jan. 27), against Middle Tennessee State (Jan. 29), at Arkansas State (Feb. 24), at Arkansas-Little Rock (Feb. 26).
A projection of repeating as West Division champions and a second-place overall finish of the Cajuns is a true testament to their dominance last season. Louisiana Lafayette lost three starters and a key reserve from the team that coasted to the regular season and conference championship and nearly upset North Carolina State in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Despite the losses, the Cajuns return plenty of talent to make another run at the conference crown.
Brian Hamilton was arguable the team’s best overall player last year, finishing third in scoring (11.4) and first in rebounding (6.9) on the team. He excelled on the offensive glass with nearly three offensive rebounds per game. Hamilton is an explosive 6-foot-6 forward that combines the skills of a big man and a guard. He rarely shoots from beyond the three-point line and is a tenacious defender who averaged two steals per game last year.
Dwayne Mitchell was the Sun Belt’s Sixth Man of the Year in ’03-’04 and could become the team’s scoring leader this season. The Cajuns also have a new, but experienced and talented backcourt, in senior Orien Greene and Tiras Wade. Greene was the backup last season and made key contributions. Wade is a transfer from East Tennessee State and could be the X factor for Louisiana Lafayette.
The bench is not as deep, or at least not as proven, as last year’s team. This appears to be the Cajuns chink in the armor as last season they beat teams with their depth. Early on they have a shot at revenge against the Wolfpack. Once the conference season starts though, it could smooth sailing up until the final week. The Cajuns can repeat if they build a big enough lead, because winning at either Arkansas State or Arkansas Little Rock will be a tough proposition.
3. Arkansas State Indians
(17-11, 7-7) 4th in East Division
Projected Starting Lineup
J.J. Montgomery, G
Dewarick Spencer, G
Andre King-Holland, G
Isaac Wells, F
Marcus Ardison, F
Key games – against Mississippi (Dec. 1), at Georgia Southern (Dec. 15); Conference: home-and-home with Western Kentucky and Arkansas-Little Rock, at Middle Tennessee State (Feb. 17), against Louisiana Lafayette (Feb. 24).
Disappointing is the word to describe last season for the Indians. No way should a team with two of the most explosive players in the league, J.J. Montgomery and Dewarick Spencer, finishing seventh overall and fourth in its division. This year, despite losing some of the their supporting cast of a year ago, Montgomery and Spencer will spark a turnaround at Arkansas State and carry the team to the cusp of a conference title.
Now do not let this lofty preseason position fool you; if Montgomery and Dewarick do not become leaders and learn to integrate their talents into a team concept, a fourth place in the East Division will occur again. We’re not counting on this being the case. Spencer, the league’s leading scorer last year with a 19.0 average, is the duo’s outside shooter threat. Spencer made 47.8 percent from the field and 45.7 percent from the three-point line last year. Montgomery (17.9 points per game) prefers dribble penetration and getting to the free-throw line. He averaged nearly eight free throws per game last season.
The rest of the squad though remains a bit of a question mark. A key to success for the Indians is the play of Isaac Wells and Marcus Ardison, two transfers into the program who will likely serve as the starting frontcourt. If these two hold their own against the rest of the league and the bench produced an ample amount of playing time, this could a bright season for ASU. Two of their last three games come against Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Lafayette, games that could determine if ASU are contenders or pretenders.
4. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
(17-12, 8-6) T-2nd in East Division
Projected Starting Lineup:
Bryan Smithson, G
Mike Dean, G
Marcus Morrison, F
Michael Cuffee, F
Kyle Young, C
Key games – Non-conference: San Jan Shootout, (Dec. 20-22), at Villanova (Dec. 27); Conference: home-and-home against Arkansas-Little Rock, Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, at Louisiana Lafayette (Jan. 29).
Make no mistake about it; the Blue Raiders are the dark horse candidate to win the Sun Belt. With plenty of experience returning, a star in Mike Dean and a few fresh faces that make an immediate impact, Middle Tennessee State can hang with anyone in the conference. If you cards fall in the right places, they are capable of winning the whole thing.
Departing from last season’s team is Tommy Gunn, their leader and second leading scorer. The Raiders will need to replace both his scoring and on-court presence. They have the talent to do both. Scoring wise, Mike Dean will become the undisputable No. 1 option. The 6-foot-3 shooting guard led the team in scoring in ’03-’04 (16.2 points per game), but it truly was a one-two punch of Dean and Gunn. Dean is team-orientated though and will know how to handle his role of go-to player.
Bryan Smithson started 28 games last season at point guard as a freshman, gaining limitless experience and gelling into the role as floor general. He’s steady improvement and development as a team leader will mark how far the Raiders go this season. Michael Cuffee was MTSU’s top rebounder (5.9 per game) last season, and is joined by the solid Kyle Young at center and Marcus Morrison at small forward.
If the Blue Raiders receive contributions from a few bench players, they could be tough to beat. Their starting five is arguable the best in the conference. In fact, upon reading this preview it’s hard to wonder why MTSU is picked to finish fourth overall. A tough conference schedule, a road game against Louisiana Lafayette and home-and-homes against three of the remaining top four teams, is the major road block to that title. But the title is definitely within reach.
5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
(15-13, 8-6) T-2nd in East Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Antonio Haynes, G
Anthony Winchester, G
Boris Siakam, F
Courtney Lee, F
Elgrace Wilborn, C
Key games – Non-conference: at Murray State (Dec. 4), at Virginia (Jan. 5), Bracket Buster Saturday (Feb. 19); Conference: home-and-home vs. Arkansas-Little Rock, Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State, at Louisiana Lafayette (Jan. 27)
Darrin Horn probably spent some soul-searching during the offseason. Not only did his Western Kentucky team underachieve during his first season as head coach, but that was just the start. After the season, three players transferred for personal reasons. Coupled with the transfer last year of Patrick Sparks before Horn even coached one game at WKU and Horn must wonder what he got himself into. The bright side? The Hilltoppers are still good.
After deferring to the departed Nigel Dixon and Mike Wells in ’03-’04, guards Anthony Winchester and Antonio Haynes step into leadership roles this year. Winchester averaged 14.1 points, while Haynes averaged 11.9 points and 4.0 assists per game last season, numbers that will all go up. Both are excellent outside shooters and Haynes is deft at creating shots for teammates and still getting his own shot. This year he will likely have to worry more about involving his teammates since many are inexperienced.
The Hilltoppers have seven new members on the squad, including the rest of the starting lineup. Siakam, Lee and Wilborn will start the season in the starting lineup, but none of their positions are sewed up. The first month will be an audition for the frontcourt. The sooner a rotation is established, the better. WKU faces a tough conference schedule and even plays the Bracket Buster game in late February. With so many new faces, the Hilltoppers could easily slide up or down several positions in the conference standings.
6. New Orleans Privateers
(17-14, 9-6) 2nd in West Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Chad Barnes, G
Bo McCalebb, G
Todd Bostic, G
Shawn Mallory, F
Ben Elias, F
Key games – Non-conference: against Mississippi State (Dec. 13), against Southern Miss (Dec. 30), at Alabama (Jan. 1); Conference: home-and-homes against Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, against Arkansas State (Feb. 3)
Say hello to the Bo McCalebb show. After an incredible freshman season, the Privateers outstanding guard is ready to take on the Sun Belt; make that the world. He’s already been tapped as the league’s Preseason Player of the Year, by both Sun Belt head coaches and Hoopville.com. However, the departure of his entire supporting cast from last season will make repeating UNO’s unlikely success last season (reaching the conference title game after being picked last in the preseason) a difficult task.
Last year, McCalebb did not start until mid-way through the season but still led the team in scoring by season’s end (13.1 points per game). The 6-foot guard is not a great shooter, just a great scorer. More important, he is a natural leader. This will be important this season thanks to the departure of five seniors and Victor Brown, who left the team for unspecified reasons.
The Privateers ability to remain in the upper echelon of the Sun Belt depends on the development of McCalebb’s supporting cast. The will have to mature by the end of the January. Thanks to quirky scheduling, the Feb. 3 home game will be its second-last conference game of the season, with six of its last seven coming on the road. New Orleans must be a cohesive unit, not the McCalebb show only, by then if it holds any hope of finishing near the top of the Sun Belt.
7. Denver Pioneers
(14-13, 6-9) T-4th in West Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Rodney Billups, G
Erik Benzel, G
Andrew Carpenter, G
Antonio Porch, F
Yemi Nicholson, C
Key games – Non-conference: vs. Stanford (Dec. 13), at Colorado State (Dec. 30); Conference: vs. Arkansas State (Jan. 20), vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (Jan. 22), vs. Middle Tennessee State (Feb. 12).
Last season the Pioneers started hot and struggled down the stretch. This season will shape up similar to last year, with Denver finishing near the middle of the pack. Seemingly just like every team in the Sun Belt this year, the Pioneers return an experienced backcourt that will be the team’s leaders this season. For Denver, those guards are Rodney Billups and Erik Benzel.
Benzel was the team’s leading scorer last year with a 14.4 points per game average. Benzel lived behind the three-point line, where he attempted 75 percent of his field goal attempts. He shot 42.2 percent from deep and averaged more than three treys per game. He is balanced out by Billups, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.0 assists per game last year. Billups is a solid point guard and is no stranger to leading his team.
Again, seemingly like the rest of the league, how Denver’s inexperienced frontcourt will be a determinant on how the team performs. For the Pioneers, this responsibility falls on Antonio Porch and Yemi Nicholson. The two averaged 12.5 and 14.5 minutes per game last season, respectively. If they produce marginally on the offensive side and defend well, Denver could benefit from facing some of the league’s big boys at home and not on the road.
8. South Alabama Jaguars
(12-16, 6-9) T-4th in West Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Shane Spencer, G
Jeffrey Collins, G
Mario Jointer, G
Richard Law, F
Jacque Pate, C
Key games – Non-conference: against Southern Miss (Dec. 20), against UAB (Dec. 31); Conference: home-and-home against North Texas, New Orleans, Denver and New Mexico State.
South Alabama seemed to be in every game last season. They were the gnat that never goes away, always flying around your face. The Jaguars were able to win some of those games, but lost quite a few too. This season USA will feature a few new players, but for the most part expect to play a similar kind of basketball: defensive, hang-around-until-the-end ball with hopes of squeaking out wins in the final seconds.
Surprise, surprise – the Jaguars’ top two returning players are guards. Shane Spencer and Jeffrey Collins both received considerable playing time last season, both coming off the bench and in the starting lineup. Collins averaged 8.8 points per game, third on the team, while Spencer led the team in assists with 2.8 per game. Spencer and Collins will hold the responsibility on offense, not so much to score but to control the tempo, which must be slow for South Alabama to be effective.
That means the defensive pressure rests solely on the frontcourt. They must control the glass, vital for the Jaguars’ success. In ’03-’04, South Alabama was out-rebounded by nearly four boards per game, (35.9 to 32.1), a big reason for the Jags’ struggles. Richard Law and Jacque Pate, both new to the program, will shoulder this responsibility. USA goes against all of the middle-of-the-road teams twice this season. These games will determine where they finish.
9. North Texas Mean Green
(13-15, 8-7) 3rd in the West Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Leonard Hopkins, G
Isaac Hines, G
Calvin Watson, G
Michael Jones, F
Justin Barnett, C
Key games – Non-conference: against TCU (Dec. 4), Dr. Pepper Classic (Dec. 29-30); Conference: home-and-home against New Orleans, Denver, South Alabama, New Mexico State
The Mean Green lost four of its five starts from last season and will take the biggest fall of any team in the Sun Belt this season. The lone returning starter, Leonard Hopkins, takes over the reigns as team leader. Hopkins was the team’s leading scorer last season (14.0 points per game) and is a solid player on both ends. He is a good rebounding guard and passes and guards well.
The rest of the North Texas squad received plenty of playing team last year, even if it was from the bench. Watson, Jones and Barnett each played more than ten minutes per game last year, which bodes well for this season. Watson and Jones each averaged 3.5 boards per game, an area they must improve upon. NTU likes to get up and down the court, which will hinder them against the top teams in the conference but could benefit them against the lesser teams.
Similar to South Alabama, North Texas plays home-and-homes with four the other middle-of-the-road teams in the Sun Belt. If the Mean Green finds a rhythm early this season, expect a higher finish than predicted now.
10. New Mexico State Aggies
(13-14, 6-9) T-4th in West Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Mike Mitchell, G
Byron Davis, G
Robert Frazier, G
Jeff Jones, F
Josh Jenkins, F
Key games – BP Top of the World Classic (Nov. 19-21), against Tulsa (Jan. 10); Conference: home-and-home against North Texas, New Orleans, South Alabama, Denver
The Aggies are a work-in-progress this season, replacing several players from a team that struggled last year. The up side is that new blood could be just what New Mexico State needs. The ’03-’04 season was a disappointing one, as the Aggies finished well below expectations. With home-and-homes against the other four already mentioned squads, NMSU will have plenty of chances to improve its standings and fight for a spot in the conference tournament.
Bryon Davis and Robert Frazier are the top returning players for Aggies. Davis started sixteen games last season, averaging 26.9 minutes and 5.4 points per game. Frazier contributed 12.8 minutes per game. The rest of the starting lineup, Mike Mitchell, Jeff Jones and Josh Jenkins, are new but highly-touted by the coaching staff. Similar to North Texas, the early season will be a big determinant to how New Mexico State performs this season.
11. Florida International Golden Panthers
(5-22, 1-13) 5th in the East Division
Projected Starting Lineup
Antonio Jones, G
Junior Matias, G
Ivan Almonte, F
Ismael N’Diaye, F
Bryon Burnett, C
Key games – Non-conference: at South Florida (Dec. 20), FIU Holiday Classic (Dec. 27-28); Conference: against Denver (Jan. 15), against North Texas (Jan. 17), against New Mexico State (Jan. 24).
After an ugly season, the Golden Panthers are hoping to turn over a new leaf with new head coach Sergio Rouco, who came to Florida International from Texas-El Paso. The bright side for Rouco is most of last season’s team returns, giving him experienced players to work with. The bad news is that this team must prove it can win conference games and have the confidence to compete.
Unlike almost every team in the Sun Belt, FIU relies on its big man for big plays and leadership. Six-foot-8 center Bryon Burnett is the team’s top returning rebounder and one of its top returning scorers. He will need to lead by example for the Panthers. Despite Burnett’s efforts, not much is expected from Florida International in ’04-’05.
What to look for in the Sun Belt
This is a guard-orientated league, providing a plethora of three-pointers and fast-paced action. From the bright star of McCalebb, do-it all Dean, scoring machines Montgomery and Spencer and plenty of others, how these little guys perform will determine how their respective teams fare. But with all of those big names in the league, when it’s all said and done, look for the no-name Trojans of Arkansas-Little Rock to bring home the ’04-’05 title.
