Who Do You Play?
by Michael Protos
The dawn of the new basketball season brings new hope to fans from coast to coast. ACC fans are especially giddy because the conference has several potential Final Four teams. From Wake Forest to Duke to even Virginia, 2004-05 promises to be a special season.
But not every team will succeed, and it’s hard to wade through the hype to find the bona fide contenders. One predictive gauge is a team’s schedule. Every ACC team plays a few games against schools from the NCAA’s best conferences. So let’s look past these elite games. These are the games that, win or lose, will not hurt a team’s strength of schedule. And strength of schedule is one of the most important factors that NCAA selection committee members consider in March when they choose the field of 65 and seed teams.
So let’s look at the opponents from non-major conferences. Two wins against Division III competition is more damaging than blow out losses to Kansas and Arizona. On the other hand, a win at Southern Illinois, a Missouri Valley Conference heavyweight, is more beneficial than a blow out win at home against Southern Miss, one of Conference USA’s cellar dwellers.
The criteria for grading non-major conference opponents is simple. How many games against these teams does the school play? How strong are those teams? Did they play in the NCAA Tournament last season? And is the game at home or on the road?
For the purposes of this column, we’ll toss out games against teams from the Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Conference USA, Mountain West, Pac 10, SEC and WAC. And then there’s the Gonzaga exception: The Bulldogs have annually proven to be an elite team in the West Coast Conference, so Georgia Tech’s game in Las Vegas against Gonzaga will not be considered.
Clemson
Tigers coach Oliver Purnell has faith in his team’s ability to succeed this season, proven by a schedule that features only five games against teams from mid-major or weaker conferences. That’s tied with Wake Forest and Virginia for the fewest number of such games. But the teams from these conferences that Clemson does play are especially tasty creampuffs. Of Hampton, UNC-Asheville, Charleston Southern, Norfolk State and the Citadel, Hampton had the highest RPI last season – a staggeringly bad 265. A loss to any of these teams would be inexplicable, especially because all five games are at Clemson.
Although the Tigers have a strong non-conference schedule, the games against bad teams are especially bad. Hampton and Norfolk State reside in the MEAC, the nation’s least powerful conference according to last season’s RPI rankings. The sum of Clemson’s non-conference schedule is a mixed message. On one hand, Purnell indicates that he wants his team to play a lot of games against teams from major conferences. On the other hand, he has a built-in safety net should the Tigers struggle against the good teams on their schedule.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: D
Duke
Duke’s history and pedigree guarantees that the Blue Devils can schedule anyone they want. So coach Mike Krzyzewski can choose non-conference opponents carefully. Based on the games against non-major conference opponents, Krzyzewski clearly treats the regular season as a practice run for the NCAA Tournament.
Duke plays seven non-major conference opponents this season, but three of those teams reached last year’s NCAA Tournament: Illinois-Chicago, Princeton and Valparaiso. The Blue Devils travel to Valparaiso, simulating a possible but unlikely first-round match up against a lower seed in hostile territory. In addition to these three, the Blue Devils play Davidson and Toledo, two of the most powerful teams in the Southern Conference and the MAC, respectively. The two biggest mismatches are against Tennessee-Martin and UNC-Greensboro. But even these teams hovered around 250 in the RPI rankings last season.
Duke’s scheduling strategy is sound for the team and beneficial for the game. The Blue Devils gain invaluable experience against the type of teams that would love to upset Duke during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The opposing teams will improve their RPI regardless of a win or loss, and their coaches can attract better recruits when their schools play such high-profile games.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: A
Florida State
Clemson and Duke are examples of one good way to schedule non-major conference opponents (Duke) and one not so good way to do so (Clemson). Florida State falls between the extremes but definitely leans toward a poor non-major conference lineup with games against weaklings such as Texas Southern, Shawnee State (a non-Division I school for crying out loud), Florida International, Jacksonville and South Alabama. The Seminoles do play Kent State, however, one of the MAC’s perennially strong teams. They also host Texas A&M Corpus Christi, which upset Air Force last season, and Stetson, a contender in the Atlantic Sun this season.
But none of these games are away games – most are at home and a couple of them are neutral site match ups. Kent State is clearly the most challenging team in the bunch and the only one with an RPI higher than 150 last season. With eight games against non-major conference teams, the Seminoles can ill afford to lose a marquee game.
With three new starters, coach Leonard Hamilton may have built an easier schedule to allow his lineup to jell before conference play. That may be best for the team’s confidence and may pay dividends down the road, but there’s no doubt the Seminoles’ non-major conference schedule will dull the luster on Florida State’s résumé in the eyes of NCAA selection committee members.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: D
Georgia Tech
Back on the positive side of the discussion, Georgia Tech, like Duke, has a strong schedule with only six non-major conference opponents, two of which reached the NCAA Tournament last season. The Yellow Jackets host Alabama State and travel to Illinois-Chicago to play a pair of teams looking to return to the tournament this season. Coach Paul Hewitt should be commended for accepting to play Illinois-Chicago as an away game. The other four non-major conference opponents are Arkansas-Little Rock, Charleston Southern, James Madison and Lafayette.
Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock finished strong last season, and both are favored to compete for their conference titles. That leaves Georgia Tech with only two pushovers on the schedule: James Madison and Charleston Southern. Now that makes for a balanced diet of non-major conference teams: two NCAA teams from last season, two conference contenders for this season and two easy wins.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: A
Maryland
Maryland’s non-conference schedule features seven games against teams that qualify as non-major conference opponents. The best team in the bunch is George Mason, which finished in the top 100 according to RPI rankings last season. The Terrapins also play Liberty, an NCAA Tournament team. But besides those two, Maryland’s schedule against non-major conference teams is poor. Jackson State, Mercer, UNC-Asheville, American and Mount St. Mary’s are not exactly mid-major over-achievers. In fact, only American finished near the top of its conference’s standings last season.
Another problem with the Terrapins schedule against non-major conference opponents is that every game is in College Park, Md. With such easy opponents, coach Gary Williams could afford to take his team away from the comforts of home once or twice. The Terrapins have high expectations for this season, and they must sweep these games and perform well against their elite non-conference foes to make up for a pedestrian strength of schedule.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: D+
Miami
The Hurricanes have a new coach and enter a new conference that’s more challenging from top to bottom than the Big East. So coach Frank Haith can be excused for scheduling a soft non-conference schedule. But this is ridiculous. Among the non-major conference opponents, not a single one has an RPI from last season above 200. Most of the opponents rank as some of the weakest teams in the nation’s weakest conferences. For an ACC program, this type of schedule isn’t going to cut it.
The marquee match up against a non-major conference opponent is probably a home game against South Carolina State, one of the MEAC’s best teams. In addition to South Carolina State, Miami will play – all at home mind you – Wofford, Florida Atlantic, Stetson, Tennessee Tech, Appalachian State and Norfolk State. The lone road game is against Florida International, which ranked as one of the worst 16 teams in the nation last season.
Haith and the Hurricanes probably have a long road ahead, regardless of who they are playing. So such a failing schedule against non-major conference opponents can be forgiven – this year. But the Hurricanes better start finding more ACC-worthy foes or else the Hurricanes will continue to struggle to break into the top 100 of the RPI based on their pitiful strength of schedule.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: F
North Carolina
The Tar Heels have a strong schedule that features only six games against non-major conference teams. And those games feature one NCAA Tournament team and two solid teams, including one on the road. Coach Roy Williams should be commended for scheduling Santa Clara on the road, one of the better teams in the West Coast Conference, en route to Hawaii for the Maui Invitational. The game at Santa Clara in Oakland, Calif., could easily turn into a loss if the Tar Heels do not play hard for 40 minutes.
In addition to Santa Clara, the Tar Heels play Vermont, which is a strong mid-major program fresh off a good but short outing in the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina also hosts Loyola-Chicago, UNC-Wilmington, Cleveland State and William and Mary. The kids from Wilmington have been a perennial power in the CAA, but they have not been at the top of the conference for a couple of seasons. Overall, the non-major conference opponents are strong, though not spectacular.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: B
North Carolina State
Coach Herb Sendek and the Wolfpack often receive criticism for weak non-conference schedules. Not this season. The Wolfpack play only six non-major conference teams, and three of those teams made the NCAA Tournament last season: Manhattan, Liberty and Louisiana-Lafayette. The most interesting match up of that bunch is Louisiana-Lafayette, which NC State played in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. The Ragin’ Cajuns will seek to avenge the defeat and upset the ‘Pack in Raleigh.
Meanwhile, North Carolina State also hosts New Orleans and Campbell and plays an away game at Columbia. These three games should be easy to win and are a nice tune-up for the more challenging portion of the schedule.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: B+
Virginia
Coach Pete Gillen needs a great season or else he and his coaching staff will be filing for unemployment. A good way to keep the job is to sport a gaudy record and earn a berth in the NCAA Tournament. But a gaudy record against awful teams is not the recipe for success, so Gillen has cooked up a winning schedule. The Cavaliers play only five games against non-major conference teams.
Those non-major conference teams are decent but not good: Robert Morris, Appalachian State, Furman, Loyola Marymount and Western Kentucky. None of these teams had an RPI above 100 last season, but none had an RPI below 250. These teams will basically serve as filler for the Cavaliers’ elite games. These are five must-win games for Gillen and Virginia, and the games will not bring down the team’s strength of schedule much.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: B-
Virginia Tech
Like Miami, Virginia Tech is entering a new conference and will likely struggle to compete at the level of most ACC teams. But also like Miami, Virginia Tech will do little to help its preparation for conference play with a soft non-conference schedule. Virginia Tech plays the most non-major conference teams, and most of them are pretty bad. Three of them, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Loyola (Md.) and Bethune Cookman, ranked among the bottom ten teams last season.
The only redeeming value to the Hokies’ non-major conference schedule is Western Michigan. The Broncos should be considered a powerful team based on their dominant performance all season in the MAC. Although the Broncos will not be as competitive this season as they were last season, they have the opportunity to upset Virginia Tech on the Hokies’ home court.
Overall, Virginia Tech may enter conference play with a decent record, but the team’s strength of schedule will be abysmal. That will force the Hokies to win several games in the conference to even earn consideration for an NIT bid – a tall order for this ACC newcomer.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: D-
Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons are poised for a championship run, and they have a tough non-conference schedule to prove their mettle. With only five games against non-major conference competition, Wake Forest plays one of the nation’s most challenging schedules. The non-major conference competition is relatively weak, however.
Of the five teams, only Virginia Commonwealth represents a quality opponent as an NCAA Tournament from last season. In addition to VCU, the Demon Deacons play Yale, Elon, North Carolina A&T and Longwood, a non-Division I squad – all at home. Based on the strength of VCU and the sheer lack on non-major conference opponents, Wake Forest earns a middle-of-the-pack grade for the non-major conference portion of its schedule.
Quality of non-major conference opponents: B-
