Peering in the Crystal Ball
by Michael Protos
Everyone loves predictions. We argue about whether a columnist is right on target or way off. To contribute to the precursor to March Madness, I offer my own projections in the 2005 NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball.
The basis for the Crystal Ball is a compilation of rankings, which I update daily. I rank the top 75 teams or so and also include every conference leader, from the best of the Southland to the cream of the Mid-Continent’s crop. Teams slide up and down the rankings based on their performance, strength of schedule, road wins/losses and games against marquis teams. I don’t punish teams as much when they lose to good teams if the rest of the schedule features several quality wins. But if a team plays a soft schedule and starts losing to even strong competition, I drop that team further down the rankings.
Because the season is young, the seeds will almost certainly change, and the last few teams to make the tournament will likely trade places with hotter teams. Conference leaders will also likely switch during the next couple of months. I also predict the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four and championship based on this bracket. As of today, here is what I see in the crystal ball.
No. 1 Seeds:
Illinois
North Carolina
Kansas
Syracuse
No. 2 Seeds:
Wake Forest
Oklahoma State
Michigan State
Cincinnati
Last Four Teams In:
Texas Tech
Rice
Vanderbilt
Temple
Last Four Teams Out:
Providence
UCLA
Memphis
Stanford
The Brackets
Chicago Region
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Illinois vs. winner of the play-in game between Alabama State (SWAC) and Austin Peay (OVC)
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Virginia
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 Temple
No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 Vermont (America East)
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Texas Tech
No. 3 Boston College vs. No. 14 Bucknell (Patriot)
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 UNLV
No. 2 Cincinnati vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (Mid-Continent)
Albuquerque Region
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 16 Portland State (Big Sky)
No. 8 Charlotte vs. No. 9 North Carolina State
First and second rounds in Boise, Idaho
No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 13 Davidson (Southern)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Rice
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10 Michigan
No. 2 Wake Forest vs. No. 15 Winthrop (Big South)
Syracuse Region
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Gardner Webb (Atlantic Sun)
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Arizona State
First and second rounds in Boise, Idaho
No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Bowling Green (MAC)
No. 4 George Washington vs. No. 13 Pacific (Big West)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 LSU
No. 3 Georgia Tech vs. No. 14 Princeton (Ivy)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 7 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 15 Niagara (MAAC)
Austin Region
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Southeast Louisiana (Southland)
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia
First and second rounds in Tucson, Ariz.
No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Southern Illinois (MVC)
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Old Dominion (CAA)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 6 UTEP vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 South Carolina State (MEAC)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 Xavier
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 St. Francis (PA) (NEC)
Sweet 16
Chicago
Illinois vs. Connecticut
Alabama vs. Cincinnati
Albuquerque
Syracuse vs. Oklahoma
Texas vs. Wake Forest
Syracuse
North Carolina vs. Bowling Green
Georgia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Austin
Kansas vs. Arizona
Duke vs. Michigan State
Elite Eight
Chicago: Illinois vs. Alabama
Albuquerque: Oklahoma vs. Texas
Syracuse: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Austin: Kansas vs. Duke
Final Four
Illinois vs. Texas
North Carolina vs. Kansas
Championship
North Carolina beats Illinois
