NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Michael Protos
Changes abound in this week’s Crystal Ball, with a new prediction for the championship and a shakeup among the top seeds.
By virtue of Duke slipping past North Carolina, the Blue Devils proved they belong as a No. 1 seed and are a viable championship contender. Defense wins championships, and Duke has the ACC’s stingiest bunch. North Carolina’s loss coupled with Boston College’s first misstep of the season allowed Wake Forest to advance to a No. 1 seed, joining Kansas and Illinois.
At the other end of the spectrum, a few major conference teams must be concerned with the emergence of teams like St. Joseph’s in the Atlantic 10 and Nevada in the WAC. Both of those conferences have other tournament-worthy teams, such as George Washington, UTEP and even Temple. St. Joseph’s and Nevada probably are not at-large teams right now, but they lead their conferences, so they’re in the field. As a result, teams like North Carolina State, Texas A&M, New Mexico and Alabama-Birmingham are watching from the outside.
The most significant change in the predictions is Georgia Tech’s second-round upset of Illinois. How can a so-so team take down the nation’s best and hottest bunch? Because the Yellow Jackets have bottomed out. With the return of B.J. Elder, the Yellow Jackets’ offense becomes more potent, and Georgia Tech already has a Final Four-caliber defense.
The match up is horrible for Illinois and is a product of seeding. At No. 8, Georgia Tech must avoid the portions of the bracket in which Duke and Wake Forest reside at No. 1. That leaves only two options, and with all of the Big East teams in the field, the committee must be careful to avoid placing them in the same immediate section of a bracket. Hence a possible second-round clash between Georgia Tech and the Illini. As a result, Illinois misses the Final Four, and I see Wake Forest storming through Oklahoma State for the national championship.
The good news for Illinois is that this is only the prediction as of today. If I’m right, Georgia Tech will likely climb to a No. 6 or No. 5 seed by early March, and Illinois would draw a better bracket.
Enough talk. Here’s the breakdown and the brackets.
No. 1 Seeds:
Illinois
Wake Forest
Duke
Kansas
No. 2 Seeds:
Boston College
Kentucky
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
Last Four Teams In:
UCLA
Miami, FL
LSU
Temple
Last Four Teams Out:
North Carolina State
Texas A&M
New Mexico
Alabama-Birmingham
Rising
Teams that rose at least two seeds:
Duke
Connecticut
Gonzaga
Texas Tech
Pacific
George Washington
Georgetown
St. Mary’s, CA
Falling
Teams that fell at least two seeds:
Georgia Tech
Mississippi State
Maryland
Iowa
Stanford
UCLA
The Brackets
Chicago Region:
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Illinois vs. winner of the play-in game between Missouri-Kansas City (Mid-Continent) and Alabama State (SWAC)
No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 9 St. Mary’s
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 12 Miami, OH (MAC)
No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 13 Davidson (Southern)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 6 Charlotte vs. No. 11 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)
No. 3 Connecticut vs. No. 14 Winthrop (Big South)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 7 George Washington vs. No. 10 Stanford
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 15 Southeast Louisiana (Southland)
Albuquerque Region:
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Portland State (Big Sky)
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Maryland
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Temple
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Vermont (America East)
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 UCLA
No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 14 Pennsylvania (Ivy)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Wichita State (MVC)
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Samford (OVC)
Austin Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Delaware State (MEAC)
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Georgetown
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 12 Nevada (WAC)
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 13 St. Joseph’s (Atlantic 10)
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 LSU
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 14 Denver (Sun Belt)
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Marquette
No. 2 Boston College vs. No. 15 Niagara (MAAC)
Syracuse Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 16 Monmouth (NEC)
No. 8 UTEP vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 West Virginia
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Old Dominion (CAA)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 6 Pittsburgh vs. No. 11 Miami, FL
No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 14 Holy Cross (Patriot)
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 7 Pacific (Big West) vs. No. 10 Iowa
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Gardner Webb (Atlantic Sun)
Sweet 16
Chicago
No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 8 Georgia Tech
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Connecticut
Albuquerque
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Alabama
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No.6 Texas Tech
Austin
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Utah
No. 2 Boston College vs. No. 3 Washington
Syracuse
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 5 Gonzaga
No. 6 Pittsburgh vs. No. 7 Pacific
Elite Eight
Chicago: No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 8 Georgia Tech
Albuquerque: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 3 Washington
Austin: No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 7 Pacific
Syracuse: No. Kansas vs. No. 2 North Carolina
Final Four
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Washington
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 1 Kansas
Championship
No. 1 Wake Forest beats No. 2 Oklahoma State
