NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Michael Protos
In the sixth edition of the Crystal Ball, Illinois returns to the top as NCAA champion while several other teams make their move in seeding, including Arizona, Pittsburgh and Maryland.
For the first time in the Crystal Ball, I foresee Kentucky reaching the Elite Eight, which should appease some Wildcat fans who feel I have underrated the SEC’s finest. Based on the Wildcats’ loss to South Carolina, Kentucky clearly is not the strongest offensive team in the country and will likely wilt under the pressure of keeping up with teams like Illinois, North Carolina and Wake Forest. But if the Wildcats draw Oral Roberts, Nevada and Boston College – as I predict in the brackets below – Kentucky could easily ride its defense to a run through the tournament. A Kentucky vs. Boston College Sweet 16 match up would be an epic battle for basketball purists who love defense.
If you love fast-paced, high-flying drama, you’ll likely prefer the Sweet 16 match up of Wake Forest vs. Washington, one of my upset specials for that round. This week I’ve added a list of my first-round upsets to whet the appetite of those looking to get a head-start at filling out an entire bracket.
Among the top teams, I like North Carolina to earn a No. 1 seed instead of Duke because the Tar Heels have only lost to Wake Forest and Duke in ACC play, both on the road. Duke, on the other hand, has a loss to Wake Forest and two to Maryland. If the Tar Heels and Blue Devils had equal conference records, I’d give the advantage to Duke. But I can’t rationalize placing the ACC’s third-place team ahead of the second-place team because of a one-point win at home.
At the other end of the spectrum, a few teams need to improve their efforts or risk falling out of the tournament. The last at-large bid was tough to choose this week. Quick: who do you pick among LSU, North Carolina State, Iowa, West Virginia, Memphis and Alabama-Birmingham? Tough choices. I’d prefer to say none of the above, and upsets in conference tournaments could eliminate the need to choose. But for now, LSU gets the nod. Stanford, Wichita State and Miami (FL) are other endangered species.
No. 1 Seeds:
Illinois
Wake Forest
North Carolina
Kansas
No. 2 Seeds:
Duke
Boston College
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Squeaking By
Stanford
Wichita State
Miami, FL
LSU
Just Missing
North Carolina State
Iowa
West Virginia
Memphis
Shooting Stars
Teams that rose at least two seeds
Arizona
Pittsburgh
Maryland
Southern Illinois
DePaul
New Mexico
Fading Fast
Teams that fell at least two seeds
Cincinnati
Villanova
Wichita State
Iowa
West Virginia
Temple
First Round Upsets
No. 12 Miami, FL vs. No. 5 Charlotte
No. 13 Vermont vs. No. 4 Pittsburgh
No. 9 Georgia Tech vs. No. 8 George Washington
No. 10 DePaul vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
No. 11 Nevada vs. No. 6 Cincinnati
No. 9 Georgetown vs. No. 8 Texas
Chicago Region:
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Illinois vs. winner of the play-in game between Monmouth (NEC) and Alabama A&M (SWAC)
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 UCLA
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 5 Charlotte vs. No. 12 Miami, FL
No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. No. 13 Vermont (America East)
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Marquette
No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 14 Pennsylvania (Ivy)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Southeast Louisiana (Southland)
Albuquerque Region:
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Portland State (Big Sky)
No. 8 George Washington vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech
First and second rounds in Tucson, Ariz.
No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 LSU
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 13 Davidson (Southern)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Stanford
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Winthrop (Big South)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 DePaul
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Gardner Webb (Atlantic Sun)
Austin Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Samford (OVC)
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Georgetown
First and second rounds in Boise, Idaho
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Wichita State
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Miami, OH (MAC)
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Nevada (WAC)
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Oral Roberts (Mid-Continent)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 7 Pacific (Big West) vs. No. 10 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)
No. 2 Boston College vs. No. 15 Holy Cross (Patriot)
Syracuse Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 16 Coppin State (MEAC)
No. 8 Southern Illinois (MVC) vs. No. 9 UTEP
First and second rounds in Boise, Idaho
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Old Dominion (CAA)
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 13 St. Joseph’s (Atlantic 10)
First and second rounds in Tucson, Ariz.
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 New Mexico
No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 14 Denver (Sun Belt)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 St. Mary’s
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 15 Niagara (MAAC)
Sweet 16
Chicago
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 12 Miami, FL
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 3 Syracuse
Albuquerque
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Connecticut
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
Austin
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
No. 2 Boston College vs. No. 3 Kentucky
Syracuse
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 4 Washington
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 6 Florida
Elite Eight
Chicago: No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 2 Arizona
Albuquerque: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 5 Connecticut
Austin: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Kentucky
Syracuse: No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 4 Washington
Final Four
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 2 Duke
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Washington
Championship
No. 1 Illinois beats No. 1 North Carolina
