NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Michael Protos
The field of 65 is becoming a little clearer as February winds down and March Madness approaches. But the seeding of these teams is extraordinarily fluid.
The top teams are beating each other up right now. Boston College rejoins the No. 1 seeds despite a loss at Villanova this past week. That’s because the other candidates – Kansas, Oklahoma State and Kentucky – also lost, but they lost to teams less formidable than Villanova. Arizona and Louisville are strong No. 2 seeds, but they haven’t made a good enough case to slide into a top spot. That could change before the season concludes, however.
Meanwhile, West Virginia and LSU are becoming hot commodities. The Mountaineers are an especially interesting case as they become the eighth Big East team in the tournament. Thanks to Wichita State’s recent struggles, West Virginia rejoins the field as the Mountaineers finish strong.
As the teams jockey for positioning, predicting the results is also increasingly difficult. Here are a couple of hints for those playing along at home. First, in the past five NCAA Tournaments, there have been an average of six to seven upsets in both the first and second rounds. Second, as the tournament progresses, the best teams usually win. There’s only been one upset in the championship game in the past five years – No. 3 Syracuse taking down No. 2 Kansas.
So enjoy and, as always, feel free to e-mail me your comments and complaints.
No. 1 Seeds:
Illinois
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Boston College
No. 2 Seeds:
Louisville
Oklahoma State
Michigan State
Arizona
Squeaking By
Georgia Tech
UTEP
St. Mary’s
Miami, FL
Just Missing
Wichita State
Texas A&M
Memphis
Iowa State
Shooting Stars
Teams that rose at least two seeds
Villanova
LSU
Nevada
West Virginia
Fading Fast
Teams that fell at least two seeds
Kansas
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech
UTEP
Wichita State
First Round Upsets
No. 10 New Mexico vs. No. 7 Southern Illinois
No. 9 Maryland vs. No. 8 UCLA
No. 10 Stanford vs. No. 7 Cincinnati
No. 9 Nevada vs. No. 8 Mississippi State
No. 12 Davidson vs. No. 5 Villanova
No. 9 DePaul vs. No. 8 Texas
The Brackets
Chicago Region:
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Illinois vs. winner of the play-in game between Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) and Alabama A&M (SWAC)
No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 George Washington
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 5 Syracuse vs. No. 12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)
No. 4 Charlotte vs. No. 13 Miami, FL
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 6 Pacific (Big West) vs. No. 11 West Virginia
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 7 Southern Illinois (MVC) vs. No. 10 New Mexico (WAC)
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Southeast Louisiana (Southland)
Albuquerque Region:
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 1 Boston College vs. No. 16 Portland State (Big Sky)
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Maryland
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 St. Mary’s
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 13 St. Joseph’s (Atlantic 10)
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 UTEP
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Pennsylvania (Ivy)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Georgetown
No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 15 Gardner Webb (Atlantic Sun)
Austin Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 16 Tennessee Tech (OVC)
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Nevada
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 Miami, Ohio (MAC)
No. 4 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. No. 13 Old Dominion (CAA)
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 6 Pittsburgh vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Winthrop (Big South)
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 7 Cincinnati vs. No. 10 Stanford
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 15 Missouri-Kansas City (Mid-Continent)
Syracuse Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Coppin State (MEAC)
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 DePaul
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 12 Davidson (Southern)
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Vermont (America East)
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 14 Holy Cross (Patriot)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Marquette
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Niagara (MAAC)
Sweet 16
Chicago
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 4 Charlotte
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 10 New Mexico
Albuquerque
No. 1 Boston College vs. No. 4 Utah
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 7 Texas Tech
Austin
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 5 Connecticut
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 6 Pittsburgh
Syracuse
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
Elite Eight
Chicago: No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 3 Kansas
Albuquerque: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 4 Utah
Austin: No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 5 Connecticut
Syracuse: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Washington
Final Four
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 2 Duke
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Oklahoma State
Championship
No. 1 Illinois beats No. 1 North Carolina
