NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball – March 7, 2005
by Michael Protos
The regular season is officially over, and we’re approaching full-fledge March madness. But don’t tell that to this past weekend’s underdogs, who got the party started early.
This weekend featured an uncharacteristically large number of upsets among top 10 teams. With Illinois, Wake Forest, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Oklahoma State and Washington all losing, the greatest beneficiary is Connecticut. The Huskies move into a No. 1 seed because they are playing better basketball than Kentucky, Kansas, Duke or Oklahoma State, all of which are presumed to have better profiles. And that’s without Connecticut’s best guard, Rashad Anderson. Watch out.
Meanwhile, the last teams in are Creighton, Minnesota, Georgetown and West Virginia. The last two are in peril of falling out of the field of 65 if only one or two upsets occur in the mid-major conferences. In the next few days, watch the Missouri Valley, Mid-American and Big West conference tournaments. Upsets in these conferences could leave the Hoyas and Mountaineers out in the cold.
Indiana, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and a whole slew of ACC teams need a strong performance in conference tournaments to move ahead into the field. Hot teams that squeak into the field often provide the best chances for a lower seed upset. For example, Minnesota is peaking at the right time of year and would beat a Cincinnati team that seems to be treading water. Likewise, Creighton is playing excellent ball and would take down an inconsistent Charlotte team.
The most noteworthy change in the Crystal Ball is Illinois’ absence from the Final Four. As long as the Illini avoid teams with the acronym of OSU, they’re money. But Illinois draws Oklahoma State in the regional final, creating matchups that favor the Cowboys. Connecticut returns to the Final Four to defend its title, advancing to the championship game. But this year, the Huskies lose to the ACC challenger as North Carolina stymies Connecticut’s inside game and wins with a combination of good-enough defense and transition offense. In other words, the Tar Heels dictate the pace of the game as they have done all season.
Read on to see which teams make the tournament and how far they advance. Feel free to express your approval or dissatisfaction by e-mail.
No. 1 Seeds:
Illinois
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Connecticut
No. 2 Seeds:
Kentucky
Louisville
Kansas
Duke
Squeaking By
Creighton
Minnesota
Georgetown
West Virginia
Just Missing
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Texas A&M
Virginia Tech
Shooting Stars
Teams that rose at least two seeds:
Connecticut
Florida
Georgia Tech
St. Mary’s
Iowa State
Creighton
Fading Fast
Teams that fell at least two seeds:
Charlotte
Maryland
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Vanderbilt
Marquette
First Round Upsets
No. 14 Vermont vs. No. 3 Boston College
No. 12 New Mexico vs. No. 5 Pittsburgh
No. 11 Creighton vs. No. 6 Charlotte
No. 11 Minnesota vs. No. 6 Cincinnati
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Nevada
No. 10 Maryland vs. No. 7 Southern Illinois
No. 10 UTEP vs. No. 7 Syracuse
No. 9 St. Mary’s vs. No. 8 UCLA
No. 9 Mississippi State vs. No. 8 Texas
The Brackets (Note: Teams that have already secured a bid are in all caps.)
Chicago Region:
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Illinois vs. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC)
No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 9 DePaul
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Pittsburgh vs. No. 12 New Mexico
No. 4 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. No. 13 WINTHROP (Big South)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 6 Charlotte vs. No. 11 Creighton (MVC)
No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. No. 14 Oral Roberts (Mid-Continent)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 7 Syracuse vs. No. 10 UTEP
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 TENNESSEE-CHATTANOOGA (Southern)
Albuquerque Region:
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC)
No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 9 Stanford
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 5 Florida vs. No. 12 Miami, Ohio (MAC)
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 St. Joseph’s (Atlantic 10)
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 6 Pacific (Big West) vs. No. 11 George Washington
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 14 Denver (Sun Belt)
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 7 Nevada (WAC) vs. No. 10 Notre Dame
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 CENTRAL FLORIDA (Atlantic Sun)
Austin Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 16 Portland State (Big Sky)
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 St. Mary’s
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 West Virginia
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 PENNSYLVANIA (Ivy)
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Georgetown
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 14 Holy Cross (Patriot)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 7 LSU vs. No. 10 Iowa State
No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 15 Niagara (MAAC)
Syracuse Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 North Carolina vs. winner of play-in game between Delaware State (MEAC) and Alabama A&M (SWAC)
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Mississippi State
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 13 Old Dominion (CAA)
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Minnesota
No. 3 Boston College vs. No. 14 Vermont (America East)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 7 Southern Illinois vs. No. 10 Maryland
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Northwestern State (Southland)
Sweet 16
Chicago
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 4 Gonzaga
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Albuquerque
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Florida
No. 6 Pacific vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
Austin
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 7 LSU
Syracuse
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Villanova
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 14 Vermont
Elite Eight
Chicago: No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Albuquerque: No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 6 Pacific
Austin: No. 3 Washington vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
Syracuse: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Kansas
Final Four
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Washington
Championship
No. 1 North Carolina beats No. 1 Connecticut
