The Big Dance
by Dean Austin
As observant readers will have noted, I’ve taken a sabbatical from Hoopville this season. Personal family business is the reason, I’m afraid, and indeed I won’t even be in this country when the tournament is played. However, even without watching games most evenings and reading hundreds of columns, I have followed along the season – not to the depth I would like, but then that’s usually a bit extreme.
So here are my thoughts about the tournament.
The Chicago region is probably the easiest for the No. 1 seed. Illinois has an experienced team, all 5 starters returned and there are no obvious minefields. Boston College has been over-ranked all year and I consider their No. 4 seed generous. Alabama has a legitimate shot to play in the sweet 16 although they are a dreaded No. 5 seed. In the bottom half, Utah State vs. Arizona screams upset potential to me, and Oklahoma State was one of the teams at the start of the year that I really liked. This is probably the regional most likely to have No. 1 meet No. 2 in the Elite Eight.
The Albuquerque region is by far the toughest regional despite what the East Coast (Big East, ACC) bias folks said on CBS. I think the West Coast doesn’t get appropriate respect, or more accurately, the mid-table Eastern Conference teams get too much, but all that being said Washington is a silly No. 1. I’d take Wake Forest, Kentucky, Kansas, and Oklahoma State over them as a No. 1 seed. However, this region is packed with teams with tons of potential. Both Pacific and Pittsburgh, my comments about mid-table Big East teams notwithstanding, were ranked too low and either could give Washington trouble. Louisville was a legit No. 2, so No. 4 is a surprise. And then there’s Georgia Tech, who to my mind are the sleeping giant of the tournament. The Yellow Jackets have 4 starters back from last year and this is a team that knows how to win against the best teams. They might lose to a lower seed, but in any matchup against a higher seed in this regional I’d take them. I like Gonzaga but can’t see any way Wake Forest doesn’t come out of this regional.
Billy Packer and Jim Nance were prattling on about how great the Syracuse region is, and even the very reliable Andy Katz has got into the act. Horse puckies. North Carolina has been over rated all year, ranked No. 1 at the start of the season and got their butts handed to them by Santa Clara. The only problem is that the regional is so weak only an inspired New Mexico would seem to have a shot at causing waves – there’s a Pepperdine joke in their somewhere but I’ll leave that alone. I don’t like Villanova and that to me, Villanova vs. New Mexico is the No. 5 vs. No. 12 match up most likely to be this year’s No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset. Florida won the SEC, but they seem to find ways to lose in the NCAA. Kansas has a cupcake draw to the Sweet 16, and unless the mad bombers return at Charlotte or Julius Hodge brings the rest of the team along with him at NC State, neither is going to trouble UConn. Really weak as far as I’m concerned and would be very hard for the first 3 seeds to not make it through to the sweet sixteen.
Finally in the Austin region, the mystery of the year to me is the poor form of Mississippi State. While they traditionally don’t do well in the tournament, I expect them to beat Stanford. In fact, you can make a compelling argument that all the Pac-10 sides don’t make it out of the first weekend. If – big if – Mississippi State plays to their potential, they could easily cause Duke some issues. Vermont has one really good player and not a lot more. Syracuse should win, as should Michigan State. Michigan State is another interesting team with Top 10 talent that still hasn’t gelled. The best match up is Utah vs. UTEP. I really, really like UTEP and think they could do all kinds of damage in the tournament. But drawing Utah and their big Oz center, Andrew Bogut, is a very tough challenge. I can see the winner giving Oklahoma all kinds of trouble. In the bottom half, there is no way Kentucky should have any issues.
So my Final Four would be Illinois, Wake Forest, Kansas and Duke but you could make a strong argument for Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, or Kentucky getting through. My hunch says Wake Forest wins it all.
Oh yes, and for those of you who liked my columns from last year, a couple of final thoughts. Oakland stole Randy Moss, Jeff Garcia signing for Detroit is a good move, right now I think the Eagles are my favorites to win the Super Bowl, I really like the Padres to win the National League, the Diamondbacks will be better than you think, it wont be another 86 years before Boston wins it all, but not this year, the NHL may well be dead as we know it and I’m waiting for the new league backed by the players to be started, the Warriors will actually be good next year (don’t laugh) and there’s no way New York gets the 2012 Olympics.
The West Wing isn’t as good as the great early years but the whole Jimmy Smits/Matt Santos arc is superb. NCIS is the most underrated show on TV. The interaction between the characters is pitch-perfect and even has the confidence to wink at the audience with an Illya Kuryakin joke. House is the best new show when Hugh Laurie answers the protestations of his colleague that “I’m not English, I’m Australian” with such classic lines as “You’ve got the Queen on your money, you’re English.” Medical Investigation has potential, I’ll watch the second show of Blind Justice to see where it goes and the CSI juggernaut keeps chugging along. Repeats of Whose Line is it Anyway are still the best place to find constant mirth and it’s a crime that the show still isn’t on.
See you all next season when I hope to return with not only my regular column but also the Upset Quotient. And no, that isn’t a threat!
