New-look Big East could schedule real surprises
The Big East has a new look with 16 teams, as Boston College has departed for the ACC and five teams from Conference USA have joined. Expectations are extremely high for the conference, with national powers like Villanova, Connecticut, Syracuse, Louisville and Cincinnati dotting the landscape, and a number of other programs with a great deal of recent success such as DePaul, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and West Virginia.
Naturally, the competition will be fierce night in and night out, with some of the home-and-home series sure to get a lot of national attention. Connecticut plays Louisville, Syracuse and Villanova twice; the Cardinals get Connecticut and Villanova twice in addition to longtime rival Cincinnati; Villanova gets Connecticut, Louisville and Syracuse twice. The great matchups don’t end there, but they certainly headline it all.
“We’ve just got to go through it one time and see what it is,” said Villanova head coach Jay Wright. “It seems so… the challenge just seems so awesome. You look at the schedule and see Connecticut twice, Syracuse twice, Louisville twice. I just think we all have to go through it one time to see how it is, but there’s no doubt it’s going to be the best college basketball conference in the country.”
Television has certainly influenced the determination of these matchups, and as such has indirectly influenced who other teams will play twice and who they won’t play at all. That also points to something that will be interesting to watch this season: the effect of the unbalanced schedule on teams not projected to be among the top teams.
It certainly would not be a surprise to see an unexpected team or two getting into the middle of the pack or even contending for the top spot at some point in the season as the top teams beat up on each other and a team continues to pile up wins with its more favorable conference schedule. This isn’t the first season with an unbalanced schedule for the Big East, but it takes on new meaning now that teams won’t play everyone at least once and the influence of television has led to top teams playing each other twice, thus increasing the possibility of teams at the top simply beating up on each other.
Who could wind up benefiting from it this season? At first glance, Rutgers and Seton Hall seem like candidates, but each has some obstacles in terms of personnel. If the Scarlet Knights get some consistent point guard play alongside sharpshooter Quincy Douby and someone complements sophomore Ollie Bailey in the frontcourt on a consistent basis, they could be a surprise team as they get rebuilding St. John’s, Seton Hall and USF twice. The Pirates need a lot to come together, but they get Rutgers, St. John’s and USF twice. The Red Storm could be in this discussion, but one of their home-and-home series is with Georgetown, a team that figures to be an NCAA Tournament contender. If Rutgers or Seton Hall manages to sweep the teams they play twice, that gets them six conference wins on the way to the eight needed to guarantee a .500 record in conference play.
Perhaps a better bet would be Notre Dame, a team which, unlike Rutgers and Seton Hall, projects to be an NCAA Tournament contender. The Fighting Irish play rebuilding Marquette, DePaul and Providence twice each, and they get Syracuse and Villanova at home. They still get tested on the road with Connecticut and Louisville, but overall the Irish would appear to have a pretty favorable draw.
If a team is able to sweep its home-and-home series, that makes six Big East wins right there. Winning games can help a team’s confidence, and may even help them pull off a big win or two against a top team along the way. Getting another couple of wins at home would make a team 8-8 or better, which then makes the NCAA Tournament discussion potentially interesting, especially since the Big East could be the top conference in college basketball this season. There will certainly be much debate about how many teams should go from the Big East, especially if it lives up to the hype and delivers the best conference in college basketball.
The value of being .500 or better in a major conference could become a big subject for debate, and this wouldn’t be the first time that happened. In fact, it’s likely to become more common in the years ahead as more conferences grow in size and thus continue to have unbalanced schedules. It happened in 2002-03, when Boston College went 10-6 in conference play and won the East Division, only to be left out of the NCAA Tournament. Seton Hall also posted a 10-6 Big East record that year, and likewise did not receive an NCAA Tournament bid. A similar case occurred in the ACC last season, where Virginia Tech went 8-8 in ACC play to finish in a tie for fourth place and had wins over Duke, North Carolina State and at Georgia Tech, but was left out of the NCAA Tournament. Of note is that the Yellow Jackets were also 8-8 in ACC play, but made the NCAA Tournament.
Historically, going .500 or better in a major conference has been a ticket to the NCAA Tournament in the vast majority of cases. We’ve seen in recent years that it is no longer a near-guarantee, and that trend seems likely to continue as the unbalanced schedules become more and more pervasive as a result of conferences that have too many members to pull off a true round-robin regular season. Among the “Big Six” conferences, the Pac-10 is now the only conference that has such a format, as the ACC lost it last season when it expanded to eleven members.
To be sure, no team will take an approach resembling one of “sweep the bottom teams and win one or two against the top”, but that could transpire and ultimately explain a surprise team or two contending for an NCAA Tournament bid or for the top of the conference standings.
