Missouri Valley Conference 2005-06 Preview
by Neal Heston
During the past few years, it seems as if the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) enters a new season following its best year ever. Well, the 2005-06 campaign will have a lot of expectations to live up to. Three teams (Southern Illinois, Creighton and Northern Iowa) from the Valley qualified for the NCAA Tournament last season, while another two (Wichita State and Southwest Missouri State, the latter now known as simply Missouri State) earned trips to the NIT. Illinois State tacked on another winning campaign, and Bradley and Drake were a couple bad nights away from giving the MVC eight teams with winning marks.
“Parity” is the best word to describe the league heading into this winter. Northern Iowa and Creighton are the best threats to contend for the title and NCAA Tournament bids, as both squads will return the bulk of their rosters. Behind them should follow Bradley, Missouri State, Southern Illinois and Wichita State fighting for third through sixth place. Indiana State and Drake have outside chances of upper half finishes, but both have nice chances of posting winning campaigns.
Without further adieu, here’s my attempt at predicting the finish in the Valley for ’05-06:
1. Northern Iowa
2. Creighton
3. Southern Illinois
4. Missouri State
5. Bradley
6. Wichita State
7. Drake
8. Indiana State
9. Illinois State
10. Evansville
At first glance, Northern Iowa and Creighton appear as the likely candidates to represent the Valley in the NCAA Tournament. If the Valley is able to attract a third bid again, it’s tough to leave Southern Illinois out.
For now, though, go ahead and pin NIT tags on Southern Illinois, Missouri State and Bradley, and don’t be surprised to see Wichita State sneak in as well. Drake and Indiana State are good enough for possible winning seasons, but there are still too many question marks to expect postseason appearances from them right now.
Hoopville’s Preseason Awards
All-MVC Team
Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa
Nate Funk, Creighton
Marcellus Sommerville, Bradley
David Moss, Indiana State
Jamaal Tatum, Southern Illinois
Player of the Year: Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa
Newcomer of the Year: Zach Andrews, Bradley
Coach of the Year: Greg McDermott, Northern Iowa
Touring the Valley
Northern Iowa Panthers
Prediction: First MVC, Second round of NCAA Tournament
Last Season: 21-11, 11-7; Fourth MVC, NCAA Tournament first round
UNI enters the 2005-06 campaign in a position every Valley team would want: favorites by many to win the conference crown with who many of the same people agree is the best player in the league (Ben Jacobson). The Panthers should look back to what happened to one of their rivals last year, though. Wichita State was tabbed by the league to win the crown, and the Shockers appeared well on their way heading into February. Heartbreaker after heartbreaker helped Wichita State slide down the ladder slowly, and the Shockers saw themselves on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.
The team that ultimately crushed the hopes of Wichita State catching an NCAA bid last year was this Northern Iowa team after Jacobson sank a game-winning trey on the regular season’s final night to win the game for the Panthers in Topeka.
Jacobson, who led the MVC with 17.9 points per game in 2004-05, has certainly captured the eyes of the nation after leading the NIT All-Stars to a 7-0 record this summer in Europe while scoring a team-high 16.7 points per game. The senior guard also boasts a top 50 spot on the preseason Wooden Award All-American team.
No star can succeed without a strong nucleus around him though, and that is exactly what surrounds Jacobson. All four of the other starters from last season return, which includes Erik Crawford, Grant Stout, Brooks McKowen and Eric Coleman. With all these men returning, so does 88 percent of the team’s scoring last season, 90 percent of its rebounds and 94 percent of its blocks. Those are high return numbers for a team that fared so well last season, and that’s why the Panthers are the popular choice for the Valley title.
One area where UNI will have to improve is its depth. The departures of Chris Foster, Pete Schmit and Jon Godfread leave holes on the bench.
Big games for UNI:
Nov. 23 at Western Michigan
Nov. 29 at Iowa State
Dec. 6 vs. Iowa
Dec. 19 at LSU
Dec. 23 vs. Dayton
Creighton Bluejays
Prediction: Second MVC, First round of NCAA Tournament
Last Season: 23-11, 11-7; Third MVC, NCAA Tournament first round
One thing for sure about the Valley is that UNI will not run away with the crown, and that is because of the Bluejays. Creighton was one of two clubs to knock off the Panthers at Cedar Falls last season while winning both contests in the season series. The Bluejays also ran away with the MVC Tournament title.
The losses of Kellen Miliner and Tyler McKinney will undoubtedly hurt, but the team scoring, rebounding, blocks and steals leaders all will slip on Bluejay uniforms in 2005-06, as Nate Funk (scoring and rebounding), Jeffrey Day (blocks) and Johnny Mathies (steals) all return. Other notable returns include Dane Watts, Jimmy Motz and Anthony Tolliver. Those six players will bring back a cool 52.3 points per game with them.
Funk will also be one of the top players competing for the MVC’s Player of the Year Award. He finished just 0.1 PPG (17.8) behind Jacobson in conference scoring last season. The guard also hauled in a team-leading 5.1 rebounds per contest in 2004-05.
Similar to UNI, Creighton appears to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament entering the season. The question is can the Bluejays snap this “one-and-done” stuff? Creighton has fallen in the first round four times in its last six tournament appearances.
Big games for Creighton:
Nov. 26 vs. Dayton
Nov. 30 at DePaul
Dec. 11 vs. Nebraska
Southern Illinois Salukis
Prediction: Third MVC, NIT
Last Season: 27-8, 15-3; First MVC, NCAA Tournament second round
Here we are again. The Salukis surely can’t five-peat, can they? If you don’t believe SIU will be near the top when the season winds down, then you haven’t been watching MVC basketball long enough.
The Salukis are my No. 3 pick in the Valley race only because of the departures of Stetson Hairston, LaMar Owen, Joshua Warren and MVC Player of the Year Darren Brooks. Those four gentlemen take with them 52 percent of the team’s scoring, 50 percent of rebounds and almost 60 percent of the Salukis’ blocks.
The returning starters and the bench were so strong last season, though, that SIU should be a huge factor in the Valley race. Jamaal Tatum, who was the team’s No. 2 scorer with 12.3 points per game, will return, and he was the only player other than Brooks to average double figures last season. (Yes, only two players scored more than 10 points per game on a team that went 15-3 in this league!) Brooks was also the team’s leading rebounder with 5.2 RPG, but the next four in line – who all return – averaged 3-plus rebounds per contest. Tony Young, Matt Shaw and Mike Dale should make even greater strides as well.
Above all, never forget one huge aspect that brought the Salukis success last season: defense. This team strives on the defensive side, allowing a league-low 60.7 points per game in ’04-05, and the team leader in blocks returns for SIU this winter (Randal Falker).
Big games for SIU:
Dec. 10 vs. Kent State
Dec. 28 at Murray State
Missouri State Bears
Prediction: Fourth MVC, NIT
Last Season: 19-13, 10-8; Fifth MVC, NIT
This team looked dead seven games into the conference schedule last season after a 1-6 start. If not for the dismal jump, who knows what could have been for the Bears in 2005? MSU (formerly SMS) recovered to win nine of its final 11 Valley contests and advanced to its second MVC Tournament championship game in as many seasons.
Even with the losses of Tamarr Maclin, Trevyor Fisher and Anthony Shavies, this Bears team is just as dangerous – if not more – heading into this winter. Only two players averaged double figures in scoring last year, and one of them returns in free-throw sharp-shooter Blake Ahearn (10.0 PPG). This group of men succeeds on balance, with the distribution of minutes and points spread evenly eight-deep into the roster last year.
Four MSU players who scored at least seven points per game return for this campaign: Deke Thompson (8.9), Tyler Chaney (8.7), Kellen Easley (7.7) and Nathan Bilyeu (7). Three of those four also averaged at least four rebounds per game as well.
The Bears have too much talent not to qualify for the NIT, and this writer certainly wouldn’t be surprised if MSU crushed the hopes of UNI, Creighton or Southern Illinois to steal a bid to the NCAA Tourney.
Big games for MSU:
Dec. 7 at Oral Roberts
Dec. 10 vs. Detroit
Bradley Braves
Prediction: Fifth MVC, NIT
Last Season: 13-15, 6-12; Sixth MVC
What do you get when the third-leading scorer in the Valley and a member of the conference’s Newcomer of the Year team return for 2005-06? A dangerous team. That is exactly what the Bradley Braves are this season; they will contend after a nice run during the second half of last season.
Marcellus Sommerville sat third in the MVC with 17.5 points per game last season, and All-Newcomer member Patrick O’ Bryant was good for 10 points and 7.4 rebounds per contest.
One hundred percent of last season’s scoring, rebounds and blocks return for this campaign, including team leaders in scoring (Sommerville), rebounds (Sommerville), blocks (O’ Bryant) and steals (Tony Bennett). Four players averaged 10 points or more in ’04-05.
Bradley will without a doubt rack up some points, but one concern this year will be defense, as the Braves surrendered 71.3 points last year (eighth in the MVC). That’s too high to make a big splash in the Valley.
Big games for Bradley:
Nov. 19 at DePaul
Dec. 21 at Southern Miss
Wichita State Shockers
Prediction: Sixth MVC, NIT
Last Season: 22-10, 12-6; Second MVC, NIT
Last season was a disappointment – to say the least – for the Shockers, who entered the season with very high expectations. Wichita State was a lock for the NCAA Tourney until its stumble in February when the Shockers had to settle for their third consecutive trip to the NIT. Kudos to the team for its run through the NIT, though, instead of complaining about not getting into the NCAA and going one-and-done.
A postseason berth this winter would be a blessing after Jamaar Howard (WSU’s rebounding, blocks and steals leader), Randy Burns (scoring leader), Rob Kampman and Adam Liberty depart.
Paul Miller, who averaged 10.9 points per contest last year, will have to lead this team in his senior season. All hope isn’t lost, as Kyle Wilson, P.J. Couisnard and Sean Ogirri will occupy the court too, bringing back with them 26.9 PPG and 10.2 RPG.
The Shockers may trip a few times this winter, which is bound to happen when four-fifths of the starting lineup is gone. Expect an uphill climb on the rollercoaster this February, though, with a fourth straight trip to the NIT a high possibility.
Big games for WSU:
Nov. 25 at Illinois
Dec. 10 at Michigan State
Drake Bulldogs
Prediction: Seventh MVC
Last Season: 13-16, 7-11; Seventh MVC
The departures of Pete Eggers and Lonnie Randolph mean that 21.5 points per game are gone this season, but returning are Aliou Keita (9.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG), Chris Bryant (6.5 PPG), Chaun Brooks (5.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG) and Nick Grant (4.6 PPG). Unsure as of now is the health of Klayton Korver, but if the junior forward steps on the court this winter, so does 9.9 points and 5 rebounds per contest. With that noted, a good chunk of the Bulldogs will return from a team that could have easily racked up 12 wins in the MVC during 2004-05.
Drake went 7-11 in the Valley last winter, but it could have easily been 12-6 after one-point defeats vs. Southern Illinois, at Illinois State and at Northern Iowa and three-and six-point losses vs. Creighton and Southern Illinois. Those aren’t only close losses, but against some quality competition too (also insert an 81-72 win against Northern Iowa).
This team will be dangerous during Dr. Tom’s third year in Des Moines, especially if Korver is ready to go. Seventh place is a modest tag for the ‘Dogs.
Big games for Drake:
Dec. 5 vs. Iowa State
Dec. 20 at Iowa
Indiana State Sycamores
Prediction: Eighth MVC
Last Season: 11-20, 5-13; Tenth MVC
The Sycamores are an interesting team heading into 2005-06. The defense allowed just 65 points per game last winter, but INS suffered an 11-20 campaign because of an offense that managed only 61 points a game.
With Amani Daanish and Jerod Adler departed, Indiana State lost one-third of its scoring and rebounds and nearly one-half of its blocks (though blocks leader David Moss returns). Part of a successful season will depend a lot upon Moss, who was the team leader in scoring (14.9 PPG), blocks (14) and steals (43), and he was No. 2 in rebounds with 6.5 RPG.
The other part of the puzzle is pretty simple – offense. It’s fairly obvious that the Sycamores struggled in almost all aspects of offense last winter with a season field goal percentage of 40 percent (last in the MVC), a free throw percentage less than 70 percent (seventh, MVC) and a rebounding margin of minus-2.8 per game (eighth in the Valley). There are some good defenses in the Valley, but the Sycamores have too many weapons to rate that low on offense.
Indiana State ranked second-to-last in the MVC for offense last season with 66.8 points per contest. The Sycamores held opponents below 66 points 18 times last year and lost 11 of those games. A few more connections could have turned a last place finish in the league into a successful campaign. If INS finds its touch this winter, this team will surprise a lot of people.
Big games for INS:
Dec. 6 vs. Indiana
Dec. 17 at Butler
Illinois State Redbirds
Prediction: Ninth MVC
Last Season: 17-13, 8-10; Sixth MVC
A lot of question marks surround the Redbirds going into this winter. Gregg Alexander, Vince Greene and Trey Guidry were all lost to graduation, and Lorenzo Gordon, the third-leading scorer in the Valley with almost 18 PPG, was forced to depart because of academic reasons – a total of 47 points per game all gone. In addition, half of the rebounds from last season have disappeared. Obviously, all stat leaders in the major categories won’t return in 2005-06.
The highest returning scorer, Neil Plank, ranked No. 5 on the Redbirds last season (7.1 PPG). In addition, only two players who averaged more than 20 minutes of playing time return in Plank and Greg Dilligard. ILS will enter a cold winter with a lot of untested men and much to prove. Head Coach Porter Moser has his work cut out for him.
Big games for ILS:
Nov. 22 at Cincinnati
Dec. 3 vs. Wisconsin-Green Bay
Evansville Purple Aces
Prediction: Tenth MVC
Last Season: 11-17, 5-13; Ninth MVC
Evansville’s good offense was matched nearly perfectly with a bad defense last season. With Andre Burton and Lucious Wagner now gone (the team’s top two scorers), that spells trouble for the Purple Aces in 2005-06. Losing those two takes away more than one-third of UE’s 71 points per game from last winter.
Potential awaits, though, with Bradley Strickland, Matt Webster and Kyle Anslinger all returning. All three of those players sunk at least 9 points per game last year. Webster also led the team in rebounds, while Strickland was the blocks leader with 29. Expect Webster, Strickland and Anslinger to be joined by youngsters Eric Ottens and Drew Gore in the starting lineup.
Big games for UE:
Dec. 3 vs. Purdue
Dec. 21 at Austin Peay
Top 10 Valley Games in ’05-06
Just about all Valley games are capable of going down to the wire, but here are some you won’t want to miss.
1. Jan. 11: Creighton at Northern Iowa – Nate Funk sank a buzzer-beating basket to knock down the Panthers in Cedar Falls last season. This game will get a lot of attention.
2. Feb. 25: Creighton at Missouri State – Who knows? This game could determine who is crowned MVC champion on the regular season’s final night.
3. Feb. 25: Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois – (See Creighton at Missouri State.)
4. Jan. 7: Northern Iowa at Missouri State – The Bears owned UNI before 2004, winning 14 consecutive matches against the Panthers. Now MSU has lost four of its last five in this series.
5. Dec. 28: Missouri State at Creighton – This will be quite the thriller to begin the season. It’s unfortunate that one of these teams will have to start 0-1.
6. Jan. 31: Northern Iowa at Creighton – The Bluejays have owned UNI in Omaha, but the Valley title is going to have to pass through the Qwest Center.
7. Feb. 11: Southern Illinois at Creighton – SIU won both meetings last season by a combined 10 points, but the Bluejays should reverse their fortune this year.
8. Jan. 16: Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa – UNI has knocked down SIU in the Dome the last two seasons.
9. Jan. 21: Drake at Northern Iowa – The Bulldogs nearly pulled off an upset in Cedar Falls last season (which would have given Drake the series sweep), but Brooks McKowen saved the Panthers by sinking a free throw with no time left.
10. Jan. 25: Creighton at Southern Illinois – This matchup always seems to be the Valley game of the year, so it might be placed a little low.
