Big 12 Conference 2005-06 Preview
by Zach Ewing
Welcome to mid-America, where the towns are mostly small and the athletic budgets are huge. The Big 12 Conference is loaded again and has what it takes to be considered one of the best conferences – maybe the best – in the country.
After Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have all had their time in the sun, it’s Texas’ turn this year. Thus, any conversation about this conference starts in Austin. Junior small forward P.J. Tucker is back from an academic suspension that forced him to sit out the second semester of last year. Sophomore center LaMarcus Aldridge also returns from injury. Without those two players, the Longhorns limped to a first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament last year. With them, not to mention the return of point guard Daniel Gibson, big men Brad Buckman and Mike Williams, sharpshooter Kenton Paulino and another stellar freshman class, Texas should challenge for the national title.
After that, the Big 12 is a bit more muddled. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech both reached the Sweet 16 last season, but the Cowboys lost nearly everyone – super soph JamesOn Curry does return – and the Red Raiders looked pedestrian in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic to open the season, losing by 35 to Syracuse and in double overtime against Wake Forest. Never count out Bob Knight, though. He’ll have Tech ready to go by conference play.
Also keep an eye on Texas A&M and Colorado. Billy Gillispie did a brilliant job in year one in College Station, and if the Aggies can overcome the loss of all-Big 12 forward Antoine Wright, they could gun for an NCAA Tournament bid. Colorado was better last year than anyone, including myself, expected and returns all five starters to what is now a veteran team.
Everywhere else, change has come or might be coming soon. That includes powerhouses Oklahoma and Kansas. The Sooners still figure to be a top-15 team despite the transfer of lightning-quick point guard Drew Lavender, who went to Xavier. Lavender was spectacular at times but seemed like he was often in Kelvin Sampson’s doghouse. Of course, with big men Kevin Bookout and Taj Gray coming back, the Sooners shouldn’t have a problem making the Big Dance and staying a while.
For Kansas, it’s been a tumultuous off-season. First came the J.R. Giddens bar fight debacle. The guard was stabbed in the calf after he and several others attacked a man in a bar. Coach Bill Self kicked him off the team, and Giddens transferred to New Mexico, where he will be eligible next season. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks will rely on four freshmen or sophomores to start and a few others to play significant minutes. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Brandon Rush, Micah Downs, Julian Wright and Mario Chalmers make up the best freshman class in America.
At Kansas State, and even more so at Missouri, Jim Wooldridge and Quin Snyder are coaching for their jobs. Problem is, neither has the team to save it. The Wildcats’ Mr. Everything, Jeremiah Massey, graduated, and Tiger power forward Linas Kleiza left for the NBA draft, leaving Mizzou without an interior game. Nebraska is hoping for some kind of change. It hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since the 1997-98 season but returns Joe McCray, who was honorable mention All-Big 12 as a freshman last season.
Baylor, meanwhile, can’t even play a non-conference schedule. That’s too bad for a Bears team that might finally have been ready to compete for a post-season berth but now will have to play its first games against a rugged and seasoned Big 12 slate.
With that said, here’s the fun part: It’s time for me to make some predictions and then time for you to laugh at them a few months from now. Seriously. You can, it’s OK. I expect it.
Projected Order of Finish
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas Tech
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas
6. Oklahoma State
7. Colorado
8. Texas A&M
9. Nebraska
10. Missouri
11. Kansas State
12. Baylor
Preseason Awards
1st Team All-Big 12:
Daniel Gibson, Texas
Curtis Stinson, Iowa State
P.J. Tucker, Texas
Taj Gray, Oklahoma
Kevin Bookout, Oklahoma
2nd Team All-Big 12:
JamesOn Curry, Oklahoma State
Jarrius Jackson, Texas Tech
Richard Roby, Colorado
Brad Buckman, Texas
Joseph Jones, Texas A&M
Honorable Mention:
Joe McCray, Nebraska
LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas
Aaron Bruce, Baylor
Brandon Rush, Kansas
Terrell Everett, Oklahoma
Mario Boggan, Oklahoma State
Will Blalock, Iowa State
Thomas Gardner, Missouri
Martin Zeno, Texas Tech
Kenton Paulino, Texas
Julius Ashby, Colorado
Acie Law, Texas A&M
Player of the Year: P.J. Tucker, Texas
Freshman of the Year: Brandon Rush, Kansas
Newcomer of the Year: Mario Boggan, Oklahoma State
Defensive Player of the Year: Taj Gray, Oklahoma
Most Improved Player: Joseph Jones, Texas A&M
Coach of the Year: Wayne Morgan, Iowa State
Coach on the Hot Seat: Quin Snyder, Missouri
1. Texas Longhorns (2005-06: 6-0, 2004-05: 20-10, 9-7, tied 5th)
Lost in first round of NCAA Tournament to Nevada.
Coach: Rick Barnes
Starters:
Sophomore guard Daniel Gibson
Senior guard Kenton Paulino
Junior forward P.J. Tucker
Sophomore forward LaMarcus Aldridge
Senior forward Brad Buckman
Outlook:
It’s a good time to be a Longhorn. With Texas’ football team a steady No. 2 and one game away from a national title game appearance, the basketball team is keeping pace. The Longhorns have won their first six games in hoops, including wins against West Virginia and Iowa in the Guardians Classic, and are No. 2 on the hardcourt as well.
College coaches love it when they don’t lose much from one year to the next, so Barnes has to be drooling about this year’s team. Texas lost only center Jason Klotz, which admittedly is a hole to fill, and guard Kenny Taylor. But it also has help returning in the form of Tucker and Aldridge, who both missed the majority of last season’s conference play. Tucker is explosive and tough at the same time, a combination bound for gaudy statistics. Aldridge, however, might steal the show. He’s averaging 17.2 points and 11.6 rebounds per game on the young season and teams with Buckman to form a fearsome inside
game.
And oh yeah: there’s Gibson to run the show, and he might be better than everyone else. Some say he’s better than T.J. Ford, who led the ‘Horns to a Final Four in his last season. Expect another this year.
Schedule:
Texas survived its first big test, the Guardians Classic, with close wins against the Mountaineers and Hawkeyes. There are, of course, others, starting with a New York City showdown with No. 1 Duke Dec. 10. The Longhorns also play at Memphis before always-tough conference play. Texas visits the Big 12 North’s toughest team, Iowa State, but gets Kansas at home.
Post-season Prediction: Lose in national semifinals
2. Oklahoma Sooners (2005-06: 3-0, 2004-05: 24-7, 12-4, tied 1st)
Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament to Utah.
Coach: Kelvin Sampson
Starters:
Junior guard Chris Walker
Senior guard Terrell Everett
Sophomore guard David Godbold
Senior forward Taj Gray
Senior forward Kevin Bookout
Outlook:
Sampson has raided the junior college ranks again, and it looks like he’s been successful again. You wanna transfer Drew Lavender? Go ahead.
The Sooners brought in left-handed Chris Walker, whose JuCo coach calls him the Tom Brady of college hoops. Another JuCo guard, Michael Neal, has been impressive thus far off the bench, leading the Sooners with 14.3 points per game. And let’s not forget one of last season’s JuCo splashes, Everett, who was second on the team in scoring last season. Those three, along with the rapidly improving Godbold, should make up for the loss of Lavender, Lawrence McKenzie and Jaison Williams on the outside.
But the Sooners’ real strength is inside. Gray, another guy Sampson pulled from a junior college, is possibly the conference’s best player. He’s lived up to the hype so far, with 12.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game and eight total blocks. But forget that talk about being the Big 12’s best player: Gray might not be his team’s best. Bookout, who seems like he’s in his seventh year at Oklahoma, is finally a senior. If he can stay healthy – he’s had shoulder problems throughout the past two seasons – the Sooners will have an inside tag team that no one in the Big 12, not even Texas, can match.
Schedule:
Oklahoma has had no tests so far, but you don’t have to look far ahead for the first one. The Sooners visit Philadelphia to play Villanova Dec. 3. Kansas found out how tough that can be last season. West Virginia in Oklahoma City and Alabama at home are also on the non-conference slate. Once Big 12 play starts, Oklahoma should be 5-0 when Texas comes calling Jan. 28.
Post-season Prediction: Lose in Sweet 16
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2005-06: 4-2, 2004-05: 20-10, 10-6, 4th)
Lost in Sweet 16 of NCAA Tournament to West Virginia.
Coach: Bob Knight
Starters:
Sophomore guard Martin Zeno
Junior guard Jarrius Jackson
Junior guard Drew Coffman
Junior forward Jon Plefka
Junior forward Darryl Dora
Outlook:
Yes, Syracuse blew Texas Tech right out of Madison Square Garden. And yes, the Red Raiders lost the next night to a Wake Forest team that’s not nearly as good as last year’s team. But don’t you remember last season’s slow start? The 15-point loss to TCU, a loss to Ohio State and a 30-point spanking from Iowa? No, you probably don’t. That’s because at the end of the year, Bob Knight had his team playing as well as anyone in the country.
Ronald Ross is gone, and this is a young team. But last year’s team had to replace Andre Emmett and still made out fine. Knight has a way of making things work, and that’s why Tech is picked third in the Big 12. Jackson will have a big year, Zeno will be a nice complement, and Dora might finally give the Red Raiders a consistent force inside. That doesn’t mean they won’t lose a few games early. It just means that come March, watch out for that red sweater.
Schedule:
After the storm Texas Tech ran into in New York, things slow down for a while. A rematch with TCU Wednesday and dates at UNLV and in Dallas against Arkansas are the only other pre-conference games worth noting. If the Red Raiders can get through their first seven Big 12 games, they’ll be fine. They open with a trap game at Texas A&M, get a breather against Baylor and then get the other five teams picked in the top half of the conference right in a row. That gauntlet begins Jan. 14.
Post-season Prediction: Lose in second round
4. Iowa State Cyclones (2005-06: 4-1, 2004-05: 18-11, 9-7, tied 5th)
Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament to North Carolina.
Coach: Wayne Morgan
Starters:
Junior guard Curtis Stinson
Junior guard Will Blalock
Senior forward Anthony Davis
Sophomore forward Rahshon Clark
Freshman center Ross Marsden
Outlook:
OK, Iona has a nice team. Sure. But there is no possible way Iowa State should have lost to the Gaels by 17 points like it did last week. This team has too much talent. That’s why folks in Ames shouldn’t be too concerned with the loss. It was a fluke. Iowa State went through a bad stretch last season but was one the Big 12’s hottest teams going into the Big 12 Tournament. This year, there shouldn’t even be a bad stretch. Having said that, Iona? Come on. That was just weird.
Stinson is one of the top three guards in the Big 12 and one of the top 10 in the country, hands down. Blalock provides a nice complement in the backcourt, and Clark can shoot from outside, too. The major concern for the Cyclones is inside. At 6-6, Clark is way undersized, and Marsden is just a big hometown kid until he proves otherwise. He’s started all four games for Iowa State thus far and has looked good at times, but he’s still far too raw for the Big 12. On the season, he has 10 points, 11 rebounds and 12 fouls. If he grows up, Iowa State could be a sleeper in the Big 12. If not, the Cyclones will go only as far as Stinson can carry them. And if the Iona loss is any indication, that might not be too far.
Schedule:
Iowa and Ohio State are obviously the giants on the non-conference slate – the Hawkeyes come to Ames, the Buckeyes to Des Moines. But the Cyclones have quite a few smaller tests: Fresno State and possibly Oregon State and Hawaii or Colorado State in the Rainbow Classic. After that, the Cyclones should blow through the Big 12 North, with the notable exception of the next team on this list.
Post-season Prediction: Lose in second round
5. Kansas Jayhawks (2005-06: 2-2, 2004-05: 23-6, 12-4, tied 1st)
Lost in first round of NCAA Tournament to Bucknell.
Coach: Bill Self
Starters:
Sophomore guard Russell Robinson
Senior guard Jeff Hawkins
Freshman guard Brandon Rush
Sophomore forward C.J. Giles
Sophomore center Sasha Kaun
Outlook:
If everyone stays in school for a couple more years, this team could be legendary. That probably won’t happen, though, so Kansas fans will have to settle for what will be one of the most exciting – and youngest – teams in the country. Rush, who averaged 15 points a game against the stiffest competition in the Maui Invitational, was a godsend for Self, who wasn’t sure whom his go-to guy would be before the season. That’s not to say that the two towers inside, Giles and Kaun, won’t be able to score at will against some teams. The bench is deep with raw talent like Mario Chalmers and Julian Wright and precious experience in the form of Christian Moody.
Reserve center Darnell Jackson will likely be another big help off the bench, but he’s been suspended for the first nine games of the season because of a mysterious connection with a Kansas booster. That’s another reason that, unlike last year, Kansas will be playing its best ball at the end of the season.
Schedule:
Seventh place in Maui wasn’t exactly what Kansas was looking for, but remember, this is a team of babies. If they can even become toddlers by season’s end, look out. Nevada at home, St. Joseph’s in New York, California in Kansas City and Kentucky at home provide stiff non-conference tests. The Jayhawks must also travel to Austin this year, though they get Oklahoma and Texas Tech at home.
Post-season Prediction: Lose in Sweet 16
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2005-06: 4-1, 2004-05: 24-6, 11-5, 3rd)
Lost in Sweet Sixteen of NCAA Tournament to Arizona
Coach: Eddie Sutton
Starters:
Freshman guard Byron Eaton
Sophomore guard JamesOn Curry
Freshman forward Roderick Flemings
Junior forward David Monds
Junior center Mario Boggan
Outlook:
Curry might be the best player in the conference, but he’ll have a tough time showing it without help from his mates. The good news is, Boggan appears to be the real deal. In five games, he’s averaged 13.4 points and six rebounds per game. Beyond that, Monds is averaging double figures and highly touted point guard Eaton has shown flashes of brilliance (18 assists and 16 steals) but has committed 22 turnovers.
The Cowboys aren’t as young as Kansas, but they might be as inexperienced. Only Curry had ever started a Division I game before this season. Replacing John Lucas, Joey Graham, Ivan McFarlin and Daniel Bobik isn’t going to happen with a snap of Sutton’s fingers, no matter how good of a coach he is. Another trip to the Big Dance, however, is expected.
Schedule:
No shame in the Cowboys’ start: they’ve beaten teams they should beat, looked pretty good doing it, and lost a close game to No. 10 Boston College. A game against Gonzaga in Seattle is the toughest pre-conference tilt left, although home games against UNLV and in Oklahoma City vs. Tennessee won’t be cakewalks. Oklahoma State also gets a relatively easy start to Big 12 play: two home games and contests at Missouri and Baylor.
Post-season Prediction: Lose in first round of NCAA Tournament
7. Colorado Buffaloes (2005-06: 3-1, 2004-05: 14-16, 4-12, 11th)
Coach: Ricardo Patton
Starters:
Senior guard Jayson Obazuaye
Junior guard Marcus Hall
Sophomore guard Richard Roby
Senior forward Chris Copeland
Senior forward Andy Osborn
(Senior center Julius Ashby in second semester)
Outlook:
This is an interesting team. The Buffaloes were supposed to have nothing last season but scrapped together a decent year and were in nearly every game they played. Now, everybody is coming back – and I mean everybody, except two walk-ons – and Colorado should contend. Obazuaye is a speedy point guard who doesn’t take many shots but knows how to play the position. Roby is the most underrated player in the Big 12, and Copeland can score and rebound. Osborn will be a decent substitute in the middle until Ashby comes back from an academic suspension when the fall semester is over.
Then again, Colorado lost to Colorado State in its second game of the season, an 83-82 head-scratcher in which both teams shot better than 52 percent. Still, expect the Buffaloes to get it going, and when Ashby returns, hiccups like that probably will be fewer and farther between.
Schedule:
The Mountain West provides Colorado’s toughest non-conference tests, meaning that the Buffaloes should have a pretty good record come January. Colorado State already sprung an upset, and Utah in Boulder and TCU in Forth Worth will both have a shot, too. Big 12 play will bring a rude awakening, with games at Texas and at home against Kansas to start.
Post-season Prediction: Lose in NIT second round
8. Texas A&M Aggies (2005-06: 3-0, 2004-05: 19-9, 8-8, 7th)
Lost in NIT quarterfinals to St. Joseph’s.
Coach: Billy Gillispie
Starters:
Junior guard Acie Law
Sophomore guard Dominique Kirk
Freshman forward Josh Carter
Junior forward Marlon Pompey
Sophomore center Joseph Jones
Outlook:
If the first three games of the season are any indication, Texas A&M will finish higher than this in the Big 12. The Aggies have decimated Southern, Mississippi Valley State and Tulane. Granted, that’s not exactly Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, but they’ve looked impressive, winning by an average of 33 points. Law is shooting a whopping 66 percent from the field and is averaging 19.3 points a game. Jones, Hoopville’s preseason Big 12 most improved player, is averaging 14 points and five rebounds per game. He also has 11 steals and is shooting 74 percent from the field and 14-of-17 from the free-throw line.
That’s a pretty good start. If Gillispie can get production out of Pompey and super frosh Carter, he’ll have an NCAA Tournament team. But beware of a sophomore slump for the coach: last year’s team had high-flying Antoine Wright (gone to the NBA) and a chemistry that might be hard to duplicate.
Schedule:
It continues to be a pan of cupcakes for the Aggies. Their only halfway decent opponents in non-conference play are Penn State Dec. 3, Auburn Dec. 22 and Pacific Jan. 3, which will be Texas A&M’s first game away from College Station. Three of the first five Big 12 games are on the road, however, and the home games are against Texas Tech and Oklahoma.
Post-season Prediction: Win NIT championship
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2005-06: 4-0, 2004-05: 14-14, 7-9, tied 8th)
Coach: Barry Collier
Starters:
Freshman guard Marcus Walker
Sophomore guard Joe McCray
Senior guard Jason Dourisseau
Senior forward Wes Wilkinson
Sophomore center Aleks Maric
Outlook:
Every year, or at least for the past several seasons, it seems like Nebraska is ready to break through. Every year, the Huskers return some good players, seem to have a good nucleus and even get a few nice non-conference wins. But when Big 12 play starts, it’s always a different story. Last year had the makings of something different. Nebraska beat Colorado, took care of business against Kansas State and later took down Texas A&M and shocked Oklahoma State and Iowa State. But sprinkled in between, there were still a few inexplicable losses: two against hapless Missouri (three if you count the Big 12 Tournament) and a 20-point defeat at Kansas State. Those four games cost the Huskers a post-season bid.
Could this year really be different from start to finish? Maybe, but don’t blame fans in Lincoln if they’re not jumping up and down. This year, hope lies in the fact that McCray was one of the Big 12’s top guards last year and Maric can control the boards inside. But the heart and soul of the team, Jake Muhleisen, is gone, as are Mr. Everything Marcus Neal and big man John Turek. Bottom line: Things could change, but wait to see it before you believe it.
Schedule:
Marquette will bring the first challenge of the season Wednesday. After that, circle the Huskers’ two non-conference tilts away from the Devaney Center: at Creighton Dec. 11 and vs. Florida State in Miami on New Year’s Eve. Nebraska has to play Oklahoma to start Big 12 play, but then gets five straight against its North companions. Time to prove yourself, Huskers.
Post-season Prediction: Lose first round NIT
10. Missouri Tigers (2005-06: 2-1, 2004-05: 16-16, 7-9, tied 8th)
Lost in first round of NIT to DePaul.
Coach: Quin Snyder
Starters:
Sophomore guard Jason Horton
Senior guard Jimmy McKinney
Junior guard Thomas Gardner
Sophomore forward Marshall Brown
Senior center Kevin Young
Outlook:
After the nightmare of the past two seasons, it’s tough to see things going right in Columbia. But I guess I can conjure up something. Here’s a best-case scenario: Gardner finds his long-range stroke and continues to pile up 20 points and six boards per game. McKinney becomes the team’s glue. Horton grows up fast, and Young proves that he really can be an inside presence. The Tigers pull a few upsets, don’t let that Sam Houston State thing happen again and sneak into the NCAA Tournament, saving Snyder’s job.
Of course, there’s a flip side: Missouri still can’t attack the zone, shoots way too many three-pointers, loses a couple of more games to schools you’ve never heard of and the Tigers play out the season with no one watching, except those who want to see how players perform when they know their coach is getting the ax.
To which extreme will the Tigers gravitate? The key might be Young, who has had an unproductive and at times pathetic career to this point. He’s the only post player the Tigers can use to draw attention away from their slew of guards. There might still be hope. In Mizzou’s win against Northwestern State, the big Jamaican had 17 points and 13 rebounds. So maybe there’s still hope, though Snyder’s position, with his job perhaps in Young’s bumbling hands, isn’t an enviable one.
Schedule:
Winning at Arkansas and at underrated Davidson will be tough for the Tigers, as will their traditional game with Illinois in St. Louis. And Big 12 play doesn’t figure to have many wins, either.
Post-season Prediction: Job hunting for Snyder’s replacement
11. Kansas State Wildcats (2005-06: 3-0, 2004-05: 17-12, 6-10, 10th)
Coach: Jim Wooldridge
Starters:
Sophomore guard Clent Stewart
Junior guard Akeem Wright
Junior guard Lance Harris
Junior forward Cartier Martin
Senior forward Dramane Diarra
Outlook:
Cartier Martin has the potential to be a beast at the wing. Through three games, which included an impressive 12-point win against New Mexico, he’s averaged 23.3 points and 9.7 rebounds and is shooting 62 percent from the field. The rest of the team, however, is a whole lot of so-so. If the Wildcats can play some defense, which hasn’t been a problem so far, get another scorer – Harris or reserve David Hoskins might be the guy – and develop an inside presence not named Martin, they might move up into the NIT. But that’s a long list.
Schedule:
The toughest tests are at Washington State and at home against Colorado State, and that’s not saying much. The Wildcats could enter Big 12 play undefeated. But what will they do once they get there?
Post-season Prediction: Figuring out what on Earth you can do in Manhattan, Kan.
12. Baylor Bears (2005-06: 0-0, 2004-05: 9-19, 1-15, 12th)
Coach: Scott Drew
Starters:
Sophomore guard Aaron Bruce
Senior guard Kevis Shipman
Junior forward Tim Bush
Freshman forward Jari Vanttaja
Senior center Tommy Swanson
Outlook:
It’s going to be tough. Bruce is one of the league’s best players, and Swanson can be dominant inside. But because of NCAA sanctions, the Bears can’t play any non-conference games. That means that when Baylor takes the floor against Texas Tech Jan. 11, the Bears will not have played a team other than themselves. Tech, and every other opponent after that, will be battle-tested by comparison. Baylor’s going to have to deal with seasoned Big 12 athletes, day in and day out, without getting a chance to gain experience in non-conference play. That’s too bad, because on the court, things are looking up. Maybe next year.
Schedule:
Here’s a joke: Baylor’s athletic department actually sent out a press release with the Bears’ schedule on it. It’s the 16 Big 12 games. Did I really need a press release to figure that out?
Post-season Prediction: Wondering what could have been with a few games under their belt
Big 12 Finale
So there you have it. Things look much like they did last year. The same six teams will reach the NCAA Tournament, but a few changes will occur here and there. Teams like Iowa State, Texas Tech and Colorado look to move up, while Kansas and Missouri might slip a bit. And at the top, it will be the South schools, Texas and Oklahoma. But the fun thing about all of this is that I could be completely wrong. Kansas State could win the Big 12, go dancing and shock everyone. Texas Tech could run on hard times and scrap to make the NIT. Let’s go have some fun.
