Western Athletic Conference 2005-06 Preview
Entering the 2005-06 season, the Western Athletic Conference is adjusting to a massive realignment. The domino effect of schools switching conferences, which started on the East Coast, has had a big impact on the WAC. Rice, SMU, Tulsa and UTEP all left for Conference USA, and New Mexico State, Utah State and Idaho have filled those vacancies. Utah State has been a power in the Big West the past few years, going to four of the last six NCAA tournaments, including an upset victory against Ohio State in the first round of the 2001 tourney.
Utah State, like the rest of the conference, will focus on knocking off the conference’s best team, Nevada. The Wolf Pack enter the season as the favorite to win the conference once again and were ranked in preseason polls. It’s the first time a WAC team has been ranked in the preseason by the two major polls since Utah, New Mexico and TCU were in both polls in 1998.
There are many reasons the Wolf Pack enter the season as the favorite to represent the WAC in the NCAA Tournament for a third consecutive season. Nevada returns the reining conference player of the year in junior forward Nick Fazekas and starting guards Ramon Sessions and Kyle Shiloh.
Other noteworthy changes in the conference include a bunch of new coaches, as a third of the teams switched leaders. Former BYU coach Steve Cleveland is the new head man at Fresno State, former Cal assistant George Nessman is at San Jose State, and former Louisville assistant Reggie Theus arrives at New Mexico State.
Preseason Awards
1st Team All-WAC:
Nick Fazekas, Nevada
Paul Millsap, Louisiana Tech
Julian Sensley, Hawaii
Ja’Vance Coleman, Fresno State
Ramon Sessions, Nevada
Honorable Mention: Jaycee Carroll, Utah State
Player of the Year: Nick Fazekas, Nevada
Fazekas was the WAC’s top performer in 2004-05 as a sophomore, averaging 20.7 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Although he’s 6-11, he has the ability to shoot from the outside and is also difficult to defend in the paint.
Newcomer of the Year: Elijah Ingram, New Mexico State and Jerome Richardson, Louisiana Tech
Ingram enters as a junior after playing two seasons at St. John’s. He started in 47 of 52 games for the Red Storm, averaging double digits in scoring during both of his seasons there. He should see considerable action in the backcourt at New Mexico State this season. Richardson is a junior who spent the past two seasons at Frank Phillips College, where he was named a first-team NJCAA All-American last season after averaging 20.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He is a projected starter for the Bulldogs.
Most Underrated: David Pak, Utah State
Pak’s impact doesn’t necessarily appear in the box score, but rather on the scoreboard. He only averaged 6.1 points and 3.1 assists per game last season, but he runs the offense and plays good defense. Utah State made the NCAA tournament with Pak running the team as the point guard a year ago.
Most Improved Player: Eric Lane, Boise State
Lane was supposed to have a breakout year last season, but struggled early and then had an off-court incident that slowed his season. He finished the year strong, scoring in double figures in seven of Boise State’s final nine games and putting the Broncos in the WAC tournament final.
Ascending Team: Hawaii
The Rainbow Warriors have a strong recruiting class and experience led by preseason All-WAC guard Matt Gibson. Hawaii is projected to be one of the top contenders behind Nevada after three of the top five teams from a year ago left the conference.
Descending Team: Idaho
The Vandals struggled in the Big West conference, finishing 6-12 in conference and 8-22 overall. They will have even a tougher time in the WAC.
Best Bets:
There are two. First, Nevada will make the NCAA tournament. The conference tournament will be in Reno, the home of Nevada, which means the Wolf Pack will most likely earn the conference’s automatic bid for the field of 65. Second, Louisiana Tech’s Paul Millsap will lead the country in rebounding for a third consecutive year.
Best Shooter: Jaycee Carroll, Utah State
Best Playmaker: Ramon Sessions, Nevada
Best NBA prospect: Nick Fazekas, Nevada
Best Defender: Kyle Shiloh, Nevada
Most Versatile: Julian Sensley, Hawaii
Team Capsules
1. Nevada Wolf Pack (2004-05: 25-7, 16-2, 1st)
Starters:
Sophomore guard Ramon Sessions
Junior guard Kyle Shiloh
Senior forward Mo Charloh
Junior forward Nick Fazekas
Senior center Chad Bell
Schedule Highlights:
The Wolf Pack start the preseason with away games at UNLV, at Kansas and against UCLA in Anaheim in the Wooden Classic. They have a key six-game stretch in January and early February with four of six on the road, including Fresno State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State. Nevada will appear in an ESPN Bracket Buster contest Feb. 18 in Reno, and the conference season ends with a home game against Fresno State.
Outlook:
The loss of Kevinn Pinkney hurts the Wolf Pack more than any other player departure. Last season, the senior forward was the team’s most valuable player, averaging 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. He was the team’s backbone because he did whatever it took to win games. The most likely replacements for Pinckney are Fazekas and fellow big man Bell, who will get the chance to start in the middle his senior season. He only averaged three points and 2.8 rebounds per game in 2004-05.
Another player who looks to help fill the void left by Pinkney is JuCo transfer Demarshay Johnson, a 6-9 post player who can block shots and score inside. Denis Ikovlev is another JuCo transfer who will get plenty of playing time.
Mark Fox returns for his second season with the Wolf Pack a year after his squad went 25-7 and reached the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Two redshirt players will be active this season, guards Marcellus Kemp and Lyndale Burleson. Kemp missed 2004-05 with a knee injury but averaged 4.6 points per game two years when he helped the Wolf Pack reach the Sweet 16. He should see considerable time in the backcourt this year. Burleson, whose brother Nate plays wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, will enter his freshman year and is an excellent defensive point guard.
The Wolf Pack should earn the conference’s bid to the NCAA tournament for a third consecutive year partially because they have the conference’s player of the year in Fazekas. They also get to play the conference tournament on Nevada’s campus in Reno, a place where they have only lost six games in the past three seasons.
2. Utah State Aggies (2004-05: 24-8, 13-5 in Big West, 2nd)
Starters:
Senior guard David Pak
Sophomore guard Jaycee Carroll
Sophomore forward Nick Hammer
Senior forward Nate Harris
Senior center Cass Matheus
Schedule Highlights:
The Aggies’ biggest games before conference play are against the biggest in-state opponents: at Utah Nov. 30 and home vs. BYU Dec.22. They have an early conference tilt at Hawaii Dec. 17. Utah State also has a tough back-to-back set in mid-January against Louisiana Tech and Nevada. A couple of weeks later, the Aggies have two tough road games at New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech.
Outlook:
The Aggies lose only one starter from last year’s team, forward Spencer Nelson. Last season, he averaged 16.0 points, 7.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. JuCo transfer Hammer will try his best to fill Nelson’s void in the starting lineup, but look for Carroll and Harris to pick up most of the slack. Those two were the only other players to average in double figures in points.
The Aggies have eight JuCo transfers this year, and they are hoping a few of them step up soon to give them the depth necessary to continue the level of play they’ve set as a standard during the past five years in the Big West. In addition to Hammer, Utah State needs contributions from Chaz Spicer, Durrall Peterson and Chris Session.
Utah State was a strong contender to reach the NCAA tournament every year when it played in the Big West conference. But with the move to the WAC, the Aggies will have a much tougher road to the tournament for a fifth time in seven years. With Carroll and Harris, they have two players who should be all-conference at the end of the season.
3. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2004-05: 16-13, 7-11, 7th)
Starters:
Junior guard Matt Gibson
Junior guard John Wilder
Senior forward Matthew Gibson
Senior forward Julian Sensley
Senior center Chris Botez
Schedule Highlights:
Hawaii starts the season with a huge game against Final Four participant Michigan State before facing UNLV twice in a two-week span. Once again, the Rainbow Warriors host the Rainbow Classic in Honolulu, which includes Oregon State, Iowa State and Colorado State. They start the WAC season by hosting Utah State in mid-December before two big games early in January against Nevada and Louisiana Tech. Hawaii ends the regular season with two games at home against New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech.
Outlook:
Hawaii loses two starters from last season, forward Jeff Blackett and guard Jake Statos. With the loss of Statos, the point guard position is a question mark because Gibson is better on the wing. He led the team in scoring a year ago, so the Rainbow Warriors need Gibson to put the ball in the hoop in addition to running the offense. Sensley is the other player the Rainbow Warriors will significantly count on. Those two are the only returning players who averaged in double figures in scoring last season.
Hawaii’s ability to play away from the island is going to determine what kind of post-season hopes they have come March. Last season, eight of their 11 losses in conference play were on the road. This team has the experience to make a run in the conference. Their five starters are either juniors or seniors, and only JuCo transfer Wilder lacks experience among the starters. If Wilder can play the point well and let Gibson play on the wing instead, the Rainbow Warriors should be in contention for a post-season birth.
4. Fresno State Bulldogs (2004-05: 16-14, 9-9, tied 4th)
Starters:
Senior guard Dekyron Hicks
Junior guard Ja’Vance Coleman
Sophomore guard Donovan Morris
Junior forward Quinton Hosley
Junior forward Renato Cesar
Schedule Highlights:
The Bulldogs will face two schools from major conferences early in the season. Oregon State comes to Fresno Nov. 26, and the Bulldogs travel to Iowa State Dec. 3. They have a tough stretch to start the conference schedule, including Utah State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech and Nevada.
Outlook:
The biggest change for the Bulldogs is new head coach Steve Cleveland. His hiring has also led to several defections, which could eventually be good. The only significant loss is Mustafa Al-Sayyad, who was a good shot blocker and defender. Al-Sayyad wasn’t the only starter who is gone. Forward Chris Berry also left. Cleveland will have three JuCo transfers starting this year: Cesar, Hosley and Nicks. Nicks has the onus of replacing point guard Kevin Bell, who will come off the bench this season.
The two returning starters, Coleman and Morris, were the team’s top two scorers last season, and Coleman should earn all-conference honors. The junior guard averaged 16.9 points and five rebounds per game last season. The key to this year’s team will be whether the transfers can take some of the load off Coleman, who will again be the team’s biggest threat. If Cesar and Hosley can defend, rebound and keep opposing defenses honest, some of that pressure on Coleman may decrease, which could propel the Bulldogs into the post-season this March.
5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2004-05: 14-15, 9-9, tied 4th)
Starters:
Senior guard Daevon Haskins
Senior guard Corey Dean
Junior guard Jerome Richardson
Junior forward Paul Millsap
Junior forward Chad McKenzie
Schedule Highlights:
The Bulldogs open the season against Nebraska Nov. 20 face Alabama a week later. In addition to those major conference opponents, Louisiana Tech plays at Texas Tech, Memphis and Wisconsin. During the most important part of its WAC schedule, Louisiana Tech plays Nevada, Utah State and Boise State at home in early February. Louisiana Tech will end the conference season with a road game at Hawaii.
Outlook:
The big addition to the Bulldogs’ attack is Richardson, a first-team All-American JuCo point guard. He is one of the favorites for conference newcomer of the year. If he’s able to run the offense and get the ball to Millsap, this team could surprise some people in the conference. This team will have to make up for the loss of two starters in guard Donell Alick and big man Wayne Powell. Both averaged in double figures in scoring a year ago, leaving only Millsap and Corey Dean as Bulldogs who averaged at least 10 points per game last season. The other new starter, McKenzie, is also a JuCo transfer and will join Millsap in the frontcourt.
Louisiana Tech will compete night in and night out because they have one of the league’s best players in Millsap. The 6-8 junior led the country in rebounds during his first two seasons and should do so again this year. He also poured in 20.4 points per game last season. Although Nevada’s Nick Fazekas gets a lot of attention, Millsap is the league’s best post player. The hopes for Louisiana Tech depend on whether Dean can provide the perimeter shooting necessary to open the inside game for Millsap. Also, Richardson must prove he can play the point guard position.
6. Boise State Broncos (2004-05: 16-18, 6-12, 8th)
Starters:
Junior guard Eric Lane
Junior guard Coby Karl
Junior forward Tyler Tiedman
Junior forward Seth Robinson
Senior forward Tezarray Banks
Schedule Highlights:
The Broncos play BYU Dec. 7 and Arizona State in the Sun Devils’ holiday tournament Dec. 21. Boise State opens the WAC season with five of seven tough games in January. They play at Utah State, Nevada and Hawaii during that run. This tough stretch ends with Nevada coming to Boise Jan. 26. The Broncos end the season with two of three at home and a road game at Fresno State.
Outlook:
Boise State must replace two major players, forward Jason Ellis and swingman Jermaine Blackburn. Blackbrun was the leading scorer last season, and Ellis was a four-year contributor who averaged nearly a double-double last season. JuCo transfer Tiedman will need to step up to replace Blackburn. Tiedman was forced to abandon a pitching career at Arizona because of an arm injury, but the coaches are high on his shooting ability and overall feel for the game. His progress will be a big factor in the Broncos’ success.
The Broncos are projected to finish anywhere in the middle part of the WAC standings. If Tiedman excels, they could finish as high as third thanks to their returning backcourt. Juniors Lane and Karl are back and make for an experienced guard duo. Lane averaged 9.5 points per game last season as the starting point guard, and Karl, son of NBA head coach George Karl, is the leading returning scorer at 12.7 per game. Karl also averaged more than three rebounds and three assists per game last year. He will lead the Broncos’ attack this season. If anybody can match Ellis’ production in the frontcourt, Boise State will surprise people in the WAC.
7. San Jose State Spartans (2004-05: 6-23, 3-15, 10th)
Starters:
Senior guard Donta Watson
Senior guard Alex Elam
Junior forward Harry Brown
Senior forward Demetruis Brown
Senior center Matt Misko
Schedule Highlights:
The Spartans play in Lubbock, Texas, as part of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic to start the season. After that tournament, the Spartans look forward to a Nov. 30 meeting at California. They open the WAC season with two home games against Utah State Jan. 5 and Nevada Jan. 7. San Jose State then ends the season against those same teams on the road.
Outlook:
The biggest change in San Jose is new coach George Nessman. The former Cal assistant has already had a big impact for the Spartans because he signed Devonte Thomas, making Thomas the first high school senior from the Bay Area in 21years to accept a Spartan scholarship. Previously, San Jose State has made a living by signing JuCo recruits.
JuCo recruits Brown and reserves Menelik Barbary and Julian Richardson will strive to produce enough points to cover the loss of three key contributors from last year’s squad. The departed players include leading scorer forward Marquin Chandler, who averaged 19.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. They also lost Eric Bloom and Michael McFadden, who both averaged more than seven points per game. The Spartans will welcome back redshirt senior Brown, who should provide a spark for this team. He’s a 6-6 forward who started 16 of 25 games in 2003-04 and averaged 7.5 points per game that year.
The Spartans lost a lot from last season, but they have some depth in the frontcourt with Misko and Barbary. Their frontline can match up with others in the conference. This team has experience, as most contributors will be juniors or seniors. Elam is the leading returning scorer after averaging 9.8 points per game last season. Misko, Watson and Brown are all seniors who should start this year, too. The Spartans have a good chance to escape the basement of the conference for the first time since the 2002-03 season.
8. New Mexico State Aggies (2004-05: 6-24, 1-14 in the Sun Belt Conference’s West Division, 6th)
Starters:
Junior guard Elijah Ingram
Senior guard Mike Mitchell
Junior forward Supo Jegede
Sophomore forward Tyrone Nelson
Senior center Tyrone Lawrence
Schedule Highlights:
The Aggies open the season at UCLA in the NIT Season Tip-Off. The Aggies also play two games apiece against UTEP and New Mexico. Texas Tech also comes to Las Cruces Dec. 29. The toughest stretch of the WAC portion will be at the beginning of February when the Aggies face Utah State and Nevada twice in four games. They play four of their final five conference games at home and finish on the road at Hawaii.
Outlook:
The most noteworthy off-season change for New Mexico State is the hiring of Reggie Theus as head coach. The former NBA star comes from Louisville, where he was an assistant under Rick Pitino. He has brought enthusiasm back to the New Mexico State program.
Two transfers will play an important role in directing the Aggies this season. Ingram came from St. John’s after playing two seasons for the Red Storm in which he started 47 of 52 games and averaged more than 10 points per game. Theus needs Ingram to embrace the point guard position. The other key addition is Nelson, who came from Prairie View A&M. Nelson was named the Southwestern Athletic Conference freshman of the year while at Prairie View. In his only season there, he started 23 games and led the Panthers in scoring and rebounding at 15.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. JuCo transfer Jegede is also a projected starter.
This season could indicate which direction Theus will guide the program. He will use the fast-paced system that has worked so well for Pitino in Louisville, which will be a revolutionary strategy in the WAC. But this team lacks the depth necessary to be successful with this style. This team lacks experience beyond Lawrence and Mitchell, who are both seniors. If this team can win five games in WAC play, Theus can consider his first campaign a success.
9. Idaho Vandals (2004-05: 8-22 overall, 6-12 in the Big West, 8th)
Starters:
Sophomore guard Jerod Haynes
Senior guard Tanoris Shepard
Junior guard Keoni Watson
Sophomore forward Mike Kale
Junior forward Desmond Nwoke
Schedule Highlights:
Idaho open the season with three games in the state of Washington: At Gonzaga, Washington and Washington State. The Vandals open the WAC season against New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech, and their toughest stretch is on the road at Nevada and Utah State in January. Idaho ends the regular season with three road games at New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech and Boise State.
Outlook:
The biggest change for Idaho is their move from the Big West conference to the WAC. After struggling to 6-12 in the Big West last season, the Vandals will have an even rougher season in the more competitive WAC.
Aside from switching conferences, the Vandals must also deal with the loss of two of their top scorers. Guard Dandrick Jones, who averaged more than 16 points per game, and forward Anton Lyons, who averaged 11.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, were the most reliable options on an already mediocre team. Idaho must replace a third starter in forward Lionel Davis, who was second on the team in rebounding. Watson, a JuCo transfer, must help Idaho adjust to a new lineup. He can play either guard spot. Nwoke took a medical redshirt last season but now must contribute early and often.
The Vandals haven’t had a winning season since 1998-99, and with the conference switch, it’s going to be some time before they have another one. The confidence of this team could be fragile. It must learn how to win, which will be difficult in this conference. Idaho does have some size, with four players who are 6-8 or taller. The loss of three starters, however, will yield a tough season in Moscow, Idaho.
Conference Wrap Up
The WAC has one of the country’s best mid-major teams in Nevada. They are the first WAC team in seven seasons to be in both major top 25 polls entering the season, so they are definitely the favorite to win the conference. The Wolf Pack advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2004 and to the second round last season, which means the fans in Reno have high expectations for this season.
In addition to the team expectations, the WAC has two of the country’s most accomplished and noteworthy big men in Nevada’s Nick Fazekas and Louisiana Tech’s Paul Millsap. Fazekas, the conference player of the year in 2005, is the preseason player of the year and the top player on the conference’s best team. He is the WAC’s best NBA prospect. Millsap has the led country in rebounding during his first two seasons at Louisiana Tech, and he should do it for a third consecutive year. Both of these players should average more than 20 points and 10 rebounds a game.
The WAC’s biggest question is whether it will be a one-bid conference come March. Nevada will be in the NCAA Tournament, but will another team join the Wolf Pack? Most likely, no other team will merit an at-large bid. But should one team knock off Nevada in the WAC tournament, there will be two teams playing in the NCAA Tournament. Last season, Boise State knocked off Nevada on its home court in the conference tournament. Can it happen again?
