Atlantic Sun Conference 2005-06 Preview
by Michael Protos
The Atlantic Sun Conference danced the realignment shuffle this off-season, though few media sources made much fanfare of their moves. Gone are Central Florida, Georgia State and Troy. In their place, the A-Sun welcomes East Tennessee State, Kennesaw State and North Florida.
Of the departed three, Central Florida made the leap to the most noteworthy conference – Conference USA. However, with the departure of Cincinnati, Louisville, DePaul and Marquette, that conference no longer looks quite as formidable. Troy bolted for the Sun Belt Conference, which is home to mid-major heavyweight Louisiana-Lafayette. Georgia State bounced into the Colonial Athletic Association, which is best known for UNC-Wilmington. The Seahawks have made noise in the NCAA Tournament more than once. Now that conference’s power is centered at Old Dominion.
Of the new arrivals, East Tennessee State is the most significant. The Bucs had a successful run in the Southern Conference and figure to become a perennial power in the A-Sun. Kennesaw State and North Florida are both entering their first seasons as Division I programs, so look for them to struggle for a few seasons. Both were solid Division II programs from the Peach Belt Conference.
A one-bid conference, the A-Sun is all about winning the conference tournament. And the conference handed new arrival East Tennessee State a gift by allowing the Bucs to host the conference tournament March 3-5. Only the top eight teams play in the conference tournament, which generates an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Pre-season Awards
Atlantic Sun MVP: Tim Smith, East Tennessee State
Smith is one of the most dominant players in the conference and most prolific scorers in the country. He finished seventh in scoring in the nation last season, averaging 22.2 points per game. The Bucs return their entire starting lineup, so there’s plenty of experience on this team, which requires defense to respect the second and third scoring options. Smith should have a monster season in the Atlantic Sun after tearing apart Southern Conference foes for the past three seasons.
All-Atlantic Sun Team:
Brian Bender, Gardner Webb
Simon Conn, Gardner Webb
Will Emerson, Mercer
Brian Fisk, Lipscomb
Tim Smith, East Tennessee State
Defensive Player of the Year: Tim Jennings, Gardner Webb
Jennings is a defensive monster in the post, blocking 40 shots last season. A year older, wiser and possibly quicker, Jennings should continue to wreak havoc on opposing offenses and repeat as defensive player of the year.
Coach on the Hot Seat: Robbie Laing, Campbell
Laing has guided the Fighting Camels, one of the least intimidating nicknames in sports, through one of their worst periods. In two seasons, the Camels are an astoundingly bad 5-49. The team won only two games last season and none in conference play. If Laing doesn’t get this team heading in the right direction, he will be heading out of town.
Team Capsules
Gardner Webb Bulldogs (2004-05: 18-12, 13-7)
Projected starters:
Senior center Simon Conn
Senior forward Brian Bender
Senior forward Tim Jennings
Senior guard T.J. McCullough
Junior guard Chris Gash
Schedule highlights:
at North Carolina
at Auburn
at Minnesota
Roster notes:
After sharing the league title with Central Florida last season, the Bulldogs return their entire starting lineup and every major contributor. Senior forwards Brian Bender and Simon Conn are the leaders of this seasoned team. Bender averages 15.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game while Conn averages 14.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. That’s a lot of points and significant experience in the frontcourt, and not something many mid-major programs nationwide can claim.
Look for the Bulldogs to dominate most A-Sun opponents. The teams that have the best chance of derailing Gardner Webb are East Tennessee State and Belmont. The Bucs have a great starting five, but Gardner Webb’s depth should allow the Bulldogs to win that match up. Belmont could pose a bigger threat because the Bruins win by firing a bunch of three-pointers. That is the Bulldogs’ one weakness: no player hits more than 35 percent of his three-pointers.
Prediction: First
East Tennessee State Bucs (2004-05: 10-19, Southern: 4-12)
Projected starters:
Senior forward Dillon Sneed
Sophomore forward Andrew Reed
Senior guard Ben Rhoda
Junior guard Travis Strong
Senior guard Tim Smith
Schedule highlights:
at Tennessee
at Clemson
vs. Central Michigan
Roster notes:
The Bucs return diminutive senior guard Tim Smith, the team’s leading scorer and one of the most dangerous guards in the country. At only 5-9, opposing defenses can’t stop Smith. He averaged 22.2 points per game last season, good for seventh in the country. He figures to have another great season, especially with the return of fellow seniors Dillon Sneed and Ben Rhoda.
East Tennessee State also returns starters Andrew Reed and Travis Strong, who must learn from the seniors in preparation for next season when they will have to run the team. The rest of the lineup is inexperienced, so the Bucs can ill afford an injury and will need the reserves to learn on the job. The lack of depth will prevent the Bucs from overcoming Gardner Webb, but the starting five is probably the best in the conference. It’s certainly good enough to carry the Bucs to second and guarantee a spot in the A-Sun Tournament, which will be held on the Bucs’ home court. East Tennessee State’s gym is more than double the size of any other school’s gym in the conference.
Prediction: Second
Belmont Bruins (2004-05: 14-16, 12-8)
Projected starters:
Junior center Andrew Preston
Senior forward Dan Oliver
Sophomore guard Justin Hare
Senior guard Brian Collins
Junior guard Josh Goodwin
Schedule highlights:
at Oklahoma
at Ohio State
at Kansas State
Roster notes:
The Bruins’ M.O. for the past few seasons has been to jack up enough three-pointers to out-score opponents. This season figures to be no different as Belmont plans to use a three-guard lineup most of the time, which features reigning A-Sun Rookie of the Year Justin Hare. Although Hare did not start for the Bruins last season, he logged plenty of minutes.
Hare and company must overcome the loss of Jese Snyder, who led the team in scoring last season at 11.8 points per game. But Hare, Josh Goodwin and Brian Collins also averaged in double-figures, so they will merely need to step up. With such an experienced lineup, look for Belmont to contend with the conference heavyweights, Gardner Webb and East Tennessee State. The Bruins will definitely be in the top eight and playing in the conference tournament in March.
Prediction: Third
Lipscomb Bisons (2004-05: 16-12, 11-9)
Projected starters:
Senior center Shaun Durant
Senior forward Cameron Robinson
Sophomore guard Eddie Ard
Junior guard Brian Fisk
Senior guard James Poindexter
Schedule highlights:
at Auburn
at Tennessee
vs. Liberty
Roster notes:
Lipscomb returns all five starters from last season’s squad and has an excellent opportunity to challenge for a top spot in the A-Sun. Labrian Lyons is the only significant contributor from last season who does not return. The Bisons get back junior guard Brian Fisk and senior guard James Poindexter, who both averaged in double figures last season. Seniors Shaun Durant and Cameron Robinson form a potent pair in the paint as both attack the glass to grab rebounds.
Although the Bisons return the nucleus of their team, Lipscomb lacks the same talent that Gardner Webb and East Tennessee State possess. For the Bisons to climb above those squads and Belmont, this team must play more consistently and polish off weaker A-Sun competition.
Prediction: Fourth
Mercer Bears (2004-05: 16-12, 11-9)
Projected starters:
Senior center Will Emerson
Sophomore guard Shaddean Aaron
Junior guard Jacob Skogen
Senior guard Damitrius Coleman
Junior guard Ross Alacqua
Schedule highlights:
at Oklahoma State
at Colorado
at Georgia Southern
Roster notes:
The Bears liked to score early and often last season, averaging nearly 81 points per game. But Mercer loses two of its four double-digit scorers from last season, so it must find some new contributors or slow down the pace. Senior center Will Emerson returns and is probably the best big man in the conference. He averaged 15.6 points and 7.5 rebounds per game last season, but is one of only four forwards on the roster.
With so few post players, opponents will likely collapse on Emerson whenever he touches the ball. Therefore, it’s critical for junior guard Jacob Skogen to continue to be a scoring threat after averaging 14.7 points per game last season. The rest of the guards do not have gaudy statistics, but they are a solid bunch that should help propel the Bears into the middle of the pack. Mercer likely won’t join the conference’s elite, but the Bears should still be on the prowl during the conference tournament.
Prediction: Fifth
Jacksonville Dolphins (2004-05: 16-13, 11-9)
Projected starters:
Junior center Ljubisa Vrcelj
Senior forward Mario Brown
Senior forward Antonio Cool
Senior guard Jesse Kimbrough
Senior guard Aubrey Conerly
Schedule highlights:
vs. Florida State
at Florida
at Georgia Tech
Roster notes:
The Dolphins switched their coach after last season, as longtime coach Hugh Durham moved on. Jacksonville tabbed Georgia Tech assistant Cliff Warren, who enters his first year as a head coach and will have his hands full.
Jacksonville loses several critical members of last season’s team, including Haminn Quaintance, David Lee and B.J. Surry. Those three accounted for nearly half the Dolphins’ point production from last season. Returning starters Antonio Cool and Jesse Kimbrough must step up, and the same is true for several other seniors and juniors. This team will probably struggle to find an identity under new coach Warren and inexperienced starters. But Jacksonville was among the A-Sun’s defensive leaders, and good defense always gives a team a chance to win. Look for the Dolphins to win enough to reach the conference tournament.
Prediction: Sixth
Florida Atlantic Owls (2004-05: 10-17, 10-10)
Projected starters:
Senior forward Rodney Webb
Senior forward Fred Marshall
Sophomore forward Derrick Simmons
Senior guard Quinton Young
Sophomore guard Ty McTyer
Schedule highlights:
at Northwestern
at South Florida
vs. College of Charleston
Roster notes:
The most significant roster changes for the Owls this off-season is the addition of Matt Doherty as head coach. After taking a year off, Doherty is back in the coaching game after a rough three-year tenure at North Carolina, where he recruited the likes of Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants and Sean May. If Doherty can get just one player of that caliber to come to Boca Raton in three years, the Owls will have received more than they could have hoped for.
Doherty has a tough road ahead this season, however, because the Owls lost four of their top six scorers. The team does return senior guard Quniton Young, who averaged 12.3 points per game. He must fill the shoes vacated by Mike Bell, who averaged 19.1 points per game. Senior Rodney Webb is the other most significant returning Owl. He averaged 9.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game last season. The rest of the lineup is a hodge-podge of inexperienced and unproven players. The Owls should finish in the top eight and reach the conference tournament, but primarily thanks to a terrible Campbell team and two Division II arrivals in the conference. The other eight teams have to make the conference tournament.
Prediction: Seventh
Stetson Hatters (2004-05: 10-17, 8-12)
Projected starters:
Senior forward J.J. Hirst
Sophomore forward Collins Okafor
Senior guard Anthony Register
Senior guard E.J. Gordon
Junior guard Will Holloman
Schedule highlights:
at Georgetown
at Florida State
at Miami
Roster notes:
The Hatters return senior guards Anthony Register and E.J. Gordon, who combined for more than 30 points per game last season. That is nearly half of the Hatters’ production last season, and they will continue to be the driving force for the Hatters since they lack any type of viable post presence.
The graduation of Borislav Djordjic and Mark Stiles hurts Stetson’s frontcourt. Senior forward J.J. Hirst will need to become a leader in the frontcourt despite averaging less than two points and rebounds per game last season. Stetson features one of the best names in all of college basketball: Chief Killingstallionsims. The 7-1 center doesn’t see much playing time, much to the chagrin of college basketball writers nationwide. The bottom line for the Hatters is that they’ll go as far as Register and Gordon can carry them. Without a real frontcourt, that’ll only be the middle of the A-Sun pack.
Prediction: Eighth
Campbell Fighting Camels (2004-05: 2-25, 0-20)
Projected starters:
Senior forward Comerlee Poole
Senior forward Maurice Latham
Junior forward Diego Aguiar
Sophomore guard Jake Wohlfeil
Sophomore guard Ruell Pringle
Schedule highlights:
at Florida State
at Indiana State
at Evansville
Roster notes:
The good news for the Fighting Camels is that they return almost of all their lineup from last season. That means more experience, including the services of sophomore Ruell Pringle, who led the team with 12.6 points per game in his freshman season. And senior forward Comerlee Poole is a solid big man who averaged 8.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game last season.
The bad news is that this team – with the same players from last season – won only two games and none in conference play. That does not bode well for this season. Fortunately, Kennesaw State and North Florida are Division I newcomers, so the Camels should find a way to avoid finishing last, but not by much. And it won’t be enough to get them into the conference tournament.
Prediction: Ninth
Kennesaw State Owls (2004-05: 24-6, Division II)
Projected starters:
Freshman center Dusty Moore
Senior forward Kenan Knight
Sophomore guard Ronnell Wooten
Senior guard Israel Ingle
Junior guard Golden Ingle
Schedule highlights:
at George Washington
at St. Louis
at Furman
Roster notes:
Kennesaw State makes the switch from Division II to Division I at a time of transition. The Owls have virtually no one from last season’s roster left on the team. Gone are the top three scorers, and nine of the top 10 contributors. That’s a brutal turnover for a perennial D-II powerhouse that must now adjust to D-I.
Sophomore guard Ronnell Wooten is the leading man on this team after averaging 9.1 points per game. He will likely be the go-to man for points this season. But unless some of the youngsters develop quickly, opposing defenses will be able to shadow him with their best defensive stopper – or two. Luckily, Wooten is a sophomore, and with seven freshmen on the team, the Owls’ best days are ahead.
Prediction: Tenth
North Florida Ospreys (2004-05: 14-17, Division II)
Projected starters:
Junior forward James Grimball
Senior forward David Ashwell
Senior guard Derrick Scott
Senior guard Riley Didion
Sophomore guard Chris Timberlake
Schedule highlights:
at College of Charleston
at Binghamton
vs. Savannah State
Roster notes:
North Florida enters its first Division I campaign without last season’s leading scorer, Donny Lotz, who graduated after averaging 13.7 points per game last season. Against Division II competition, the Ospreys only managed to score a little more than 66 points per game. So without Lotz, the Ospreys must find a new leader and put up more points, or else this team will lose badly in a lot of games this season.
Senior guard Derrick Scott and junior forward James Grimball will carry much of the load. Scott averaged 12.3 points per game, and Grimball was good for 11.3 points per game. They are the only other Ospreys who averaged more than 10 points per game. North Florida did not shoot particularly well from three-point land or rebound effectively, and those trends figure to continue this season. The Ospreys will do well to evade last place in the A-Sun this season.
Prediction: Eleventh
Final thoughts
The Atlantic Sun Conference will likely be hierarchical this season. The best teams – Gardner Webb, East Tennessee State, Belmont and Lipscomb – contrast greatly with the worst teams – Campbell, Kennesaw State and North Florida. The top four will likely battle for seeding in the conference tournament, which could be huge because the fourth team will likely have to play a dangerous Mercer team.
Florida Atlantic, Stetson and Jacksonville do not appear particularly strong on paper, but they could still surprise the heavyweights. If nothing else, they should avoid the conference’s cellar and earn a trip to the conference tournament.
A conference championship between Gardner Webb and East Tennessee State would be worth of national attention because either team has the potential to upset an opponent in the NCAA Tournament.
