First looks and early trends
January is historically a month in which the NBA’s scouting consortiums (The Gang of 30) will begin to lower their opinions regarding NCAA players as their international colleagues start to sing the praises of the overseas prospects.
There’s a simple explanation for this annual occurrence. A week or two into conference play and several of the players who compiled impressive stats against soft competition during the non-conference portion of the schedule are now being exposed. Scouts will hurriedly rewrite their player summaries and start to look more at what players can’t do.
Meanwhile, across the pond, several mini-tourneys sprout up as well as big rivalry matchups in Euroleague play. It is during this time that the scouts get their chances to rewrite evaluations – often changing to more positive ones as games play out.
One such player is Daniel Gibson, the lead guard for Texas. Currently he’s our 23rd ranked PG, and for good reason. Gibson is a terrific college point guard who has the right skills to lead his team. How well Texas may do in March may have more to do with Gibson’s play than that of unanimous lottery projection LaMarcus Aldridge. But college play and NBA are quite different, and Gibson does not have the game for the pros. He’s too error-prone, often on the negative side of the ATO (assist to turnover) ledger, and can frequently have 2-3 assist games. His listed height is 6-2, but he’s closer to a flat 6 foot. It all adds up to the fact that Gibson is a very good college player, which doesn’t automatically translate into an NBA career.
Other players who are being downgraded include Steven Smith of LaSalle. Smith had a fine Chicago Pre-Draft Camp last June and has played relatively well enough to date, but scouts are beginning to have second thought about what his NBA position would be. Listed at 6-07 and 225 pounds, Smith plays more like a power forward who steps out and nails perimeter shots. Some think he’s a wing player trapped inside a power player’s body. Others aren’t even that sure. The jury will remain in deliberation regarding Smith’s draft chances, perhaps until June.
Josh Boone is emerging as this season’s Chris Taft. Taft was the Pitt power player who began last season as a top 2 draft lock. He then played himself into the second round and now finds himself getting garbage time minutes as a spare part in the Golden State Warriors’ rotation. Boone is apparently playing himself from a high lottery assumption 2 years ago into another second round afterthought. First, it was the thought that he was playing in the shadows of Emaka Okafor. Then it was the crowded interior caused by Charlie Villanueva. Now, lackadaisical play forced Head Coach Jim Calhoun to play Hilton Armstrong, who has usurped Boone as the interior first option. So well has Armstrong played that he’s also usurped Boone on the rankings of several NBA teams as well as our rankings.
And as these college players see their stock take a dive, foreign players are watching as their values increase.
Right now the top international prospects are:
- Sergio Andrea Bargani of Italy, assumed by many to be a top 7 pick
- Rudy Fernandez, the Spanish 2 guard with tons of potential
- Marko Bellinelli, an Italian perimeter player extraordinaire
- Tiago Splitter, a Brazilian perennial draft candidate who may finally be ready
- Sergio Rodriguez, a Spanish PG who could hit pay dirt in a PG poor draft.
Marko Thomas, a Croatian wing player, could actually be the best NBA prospect in Europe. But a hefty six-figure buyout of his contract has scared most teams far away.
Next time out, we’ll take a close look at the quality and depth at each position.
