NCAA Tournament Crystal Basketball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
February 10, 2006
Now that the NFL is out of the way, the NBA is in its midseason doldrums, baseball is still months away, and the NHL is stopping for a few weeks with a giant gambling black cloud hanging over its rinks, the attention and spotlight shines brightly on NCAA basketball.
With college hoops approaching its regular season deadline, crunch time is upon us. Whether it be the face-painted fans in and out of arenas all across the nation, the players fighting for that ring that lasts forever, the coaches trying to prove they belong in their positions, or the writers who have five weeks left to correctly predict the 65 teams in the Big Dance, time is ticking and the second half is winding down.
One of the most interesting debates concerns the top spot in the field. According to the polls, most folks tend to slot Connecticut at No. 1. Hauptman falls into that category, liking the Huskies’ dominating performance in every game except a road game to Marquette. The other team jockeying for No. 1 – Duke – lost to a Big East school. So that proves the Big East is more powerful and worthy of drawing the best No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, right?
Not so fast, some say, including Protos. Just look at last season. Illinois was clearly the best team throughout the regular season and earned the top No. 1 team even though the ACC was clearly the best conference. Protos likes Duke’s ability to withstand the best shot of every opponent, regardless of their opponents’ RPI. Speaking of RPIs, Duke holds the advantage over Connecticut by a slim margin. But more importantly, Duke’s strength of schedule, especially during non-conference play, is significantly stronger, thus earning the Blue Devils the top spot in the NCAA Tournament.
But although the debate for the top No. 1 seed won’t be settled for another four weeks, here’s what Hauptman and Protos see in this week’s Crystal Basketball.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 Connecticut Memphis Duke Illinois |
Duke Connecticut Memphis Villanova |
 Villanova Texas Gonzaga George Washington |
Texas Tennessee Gonzaga Michigan State |
 Pittsburgh Michigan State Tennessee UCLA |
Illinois UCLA George Washington Ohio State |
 Florida Ohio State Iowa West Virginia |
Georgetown Northern Iowa Florida Pittsburgh |
 NC State Northern Iowa LSU Georgetown |
Creighton LSU NC State Iowa |
 Boston College Oklahoma Wisconsin North Carolina |
Oklahoma West Virginia Boston College Wisconsin |
 Bucknell Arizona Michigan Creighton |
Seton Hall North Carolina Michigan Indiana |
 Indiana Wichita State Kansas Wisconsin-Milwaukee |
Marquette Kansas George Mason Bucknell |
 Seton Hall Marquette Southern Illinois California |
Wichita State Syracuse California Alabama |
 UAB Maryland Cincinnati Kentucky |
Arizona Kentucky UAB Cincinnati |
 George Mason Alabama Colorado Miami |
Washington Maryland Wisconsin-Milwaukee Nevada |
 San Diego State Utah State Syracuse Nevada |
Southern Illinois Iowa State Western Kentucky San Diego State |
 Akron Washington Western Kentucky Manhattan |
Xavier Miami Kent State Northwestern State |
 Penn Murray State Northern Arizona Winthrop |
Manhattan Murray State Penn UC Irvine |
 Northwestern State Davidson UC Irvine Albany |
Albany Birmingham Southern IUPUI Northern Arizona |
 Fairleigh Dickinson IUPUI Lipscomb Delaware State Southern |
Fairleigh Dickinson Delaware State Southern East Tennessee State Elon |
 Last four in:Miami Syracuse Nevada Washington |
Last four in: Southern Illinois Iowa State Xavier Miami |
| Last four out: Stanford Missouri State Air Force Temple |
Last four out: Utah State Colorado Old Dominion Arkansas |
| Conference Breakdown: Big East: 9 Big Ten: 7 ACC: 6 SEC: 5 Big 12: 4 Missouri Valley: 4 Pac-10: 4 Conference USA: 2 WAC: 2 22 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 9 Big Ten: 7 ACC: 6 |
| Shooting Stars: Kansas Seton Hall California Alabama |
Shooting Stars: California Seton Hall Kansas Alabama |
| Sinking Ships: Washington Kentucky Syracuse Michigan |
Sinking Ships: Xavier Washington Maryland Iowa State |
Not surprisingly, Hauptman and Protos are starting to see a clearer and more similar picture of the NCAA Tournament. This week, they only disagree on two of the at-large teams. Hauptman likes Colorado and Utah State, while Protos gives Iowa State and Xavier the nod. Interestingly, the differences involve a Big 12 school and a team from rising mid-major conferences.
Neither Hauptman nor Protos foresee a change at the top, though they differ on the fourth No. 1 seed. Hauptman continues to see Illinois claiming a top No. 1 spot, rewarding the Big Ten for a spectacular season as the No. 2 conference in the land. But Protos chooses to reward the No. 1 conference with a second No. 1 seed in Villanova. The Wildcats continue to win, though oftentimes in an ugly fashion.
One team that is flying under the radar is Memphis. That’s pretty remarkable for a unanimous No. 1 seed. With the Tigers entrenched in Conference USA play, forgive us for not getting thrilled about games like Memphis at Marshall. Conference USA is near the middle of the conference ratings at 14, trailing the MAAC in the power rankings. The Tigers are a phenomenal young team with enough senior leadership to make some noise in the tournament. It will be a shame if Conference USA’s lone elite team suffers a similar fate as Gonzaga in recent years – spectacular season followed by an early-round flameout.
At the other end of the spectrum, Hauptman and Protos are unanimous on the four teams on the rise: Alabama, California, Kansas and Seton Hall. These major conference squads are hitting their stride at the right time of year. Alabama perhaps deserves the most credit for overcoming a slew of major injuries and the shallowest backcourt in the country. Kansas’ youngsters are maturing at the right time, while the Bears are getting healthy at the right time. Pirate coach Louis Orr is saving his job with a suddenly publicized season at the Hall.
Meanwhile, the bandwagon is getting a lot lighter at Washington, Kentucky, Xavier, Syracuse, Maryland, Iowa State and Michigan. Hauptman and Protos don’t agree on their sinking ships, but all these teams need to turn around their games in the final few weeks to avoid bubble status. All those teams desperately need to finish at or above .500 in conference play and probably need to dodge a lower-seeded, upset-minded squad in the first round of their conference tournaments.
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Protos and Hauptman off target? Send us e-mail to comment on the Crystal Basketball. Then check back each week to follow the evolution of Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the NCAA Tournament.
