Atlantic Coast Conference Notebook
The regular season is less than three weeks away now, and several ACC teams are steaming toward the finish. In particular, Duke, North Carolina State and Boston College appear to be the cream of the ACC’s crop.
Although the Blue Devils will continue to garner the most media attention, especially as long as they remain undefeated in conference play, Boston College might be the most interesting team to watch. The Eagles have won eight of nine games, and the only loss is a two-point heartbreaker at home to Duke. They play only one ranked team in the final six games, so the Eagles could enter the ACC Tournament as winners of 13 or 14 in the final 15 regular-season games.
If Boston College continues to take care of business down the stretch, the Eagles still need to advance to the ACC championship to earn an elite seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Eagles have an average non-conference strength of schedule. Average is probably too generous, as Boston College’s non-conference strength of schedule is well below 200. And thanks to the ACC’s imbalanced schedule, the Eagles are only 2-2 against conference opponents that are .500 or better in ACC play.
Ironically, Boston College – one of three recent new ACC programs – will suffer from expansion and the lack of equality in the conference schedule, a byproduct of the addition of the Eagles, Miami and Virginia Tech. Because the conference no longer plays a balanced home-and-home schedule, selection committee members must consider the Eagles’ relatively easy ACC slate in addition to the weak non-conference schedule. Boston College probably won’t draw anything better than a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of the final results.
Eagle fans should hope that the teams above Boston College lose a few bad games. The best way to earn a No. 2 or 3 NCAA Tournament seed is to win out in the regular season – including a tough road game at North Carolina State – and beat Duke at some point in the conference tournament. Those two victories should be good enough to propel the Eagles into a top three seed.
ACC Player of the Week: J.J. Redick, Duke
Once again, Redick proved he’s the best player in the conference. Against the two teams that hate Duke most – North Carolina and Maryland – Redick killed his opponents with back-to-back 35-point games. He hit 21-of-41 shots and 9-of-20 three-pointers. And he played all but two minutes. In comparison, Virginia Tech junior guard Jamon Gordon had a ho-hum week, averaging just 22.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. Any other week, Gordon gets Player of the Week honors and national press for amazing performances from a guard.
ACC Rookie of the Week: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
In the equally anti-climactic award category, Hansbrough claimed another Rookie of the Week honor after scoring 39 points and grabbing 16 rebounds in two games last week. Although he lost the individual battle with Duke’s Shelden Williams, Hansbrough responded with a great game at Miami. Clemson’s K.C. Rivers had a solid week with 24 points and 12 rebounds, and Duke’s Greg Paulus also delivered on call with 22 points and 14 assists.
ACC Coach Watch: Frank Haith, Miami
Entering last week, Miami was this close to second place in the ACC. Two home losses later, the Hurricanes must pack their bags for Duke and Boston College in desperate need of a marquis win. Haith needs to rally the troops and coerce his team to play better defense. Otherwise, Miami will exit the NCAA Tournament discussion as quickly as the Hurricanes entered it as a chic flavor of the week.
Duke Blue Devils (23-1, 11-0)
Last week:
Win: at North Carolina, 87-83
Win: at Maryland, 96-88
Next two:
Feb. 14: Wake Forest
Feb. 19: Miami
At 11-0, the Blue Devils are starting to hear talk about an undefeated ACC season. That’s a bit premature with nearly one-third of the conference schedule remaining, including a rematch against North Carolina and a road trip to Florida State. Perhaps more impressively, Duke could clinch the ACC regular-season title by this time next week with two home victories against Wake Forest and Miami. Duke would be 13-0, and North Carolina State could only tie Duke at 13-3 even if aliens pull a “Space Jam” and rob J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams of their skills. By virtue of the Blue Devils’ win against the Wolfpack in their lone meeting, Duke would still win the conference title.
As Duke cruises to another ACC title, the Blue Devils are tuning up for a deep NCAA Tournament run. With Redick and Williams guiding the attack, the Blue Devils are probably easy bets to reach at least the Sweet 16. But players like freshman point guard Greg Paulus will have an important role in lifting Duke to a championship. Although Paulus likely won’t be responsible for hitting many clutch shots, his ability to force opponents to respect his shot is important. Against Maryland, Paulus drained four three-pointers, scoring 16 points. He also dished out seven assists in both games last week. Coach Mike Krzyzewski knows he must keep a careful eye on Paulus’ performance when he meets more seasoned point guards. But if Paulus can lift his assist-to-turnover ration to 2-to-1 – it’s currently about 1.6-to-1 – and drain open three-pointers, he could wreak havoc on opponents’ game plans.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (19-5, 8-3)
Last week:
Win: at Miami, 86-77 (2 OT)
Loss: at Georgia Tech, 71-68
Next two:
Feb. 15: Florida State
Feb. 18: at Virginia Tech
The final 10 seconds of the Wolfpack’s loss to Georgia Tech prove that North Carolina State has an unanswered question that continues to loom over Raleigh. Who wants to take the big shots when the Wolfpack need points? For the past four years, Julius Hodge willingly donned the Superman cape for the Wolfpack when they needed a miracle at the end of games. But Hodge has moved on to the NBA – or at least the NBA’s Development League for now – and North Carolina State cannot figure out who should take the big shots.
Trailing 71-68 against the Yellow Jackets, senior guard Cameron Bennerman took a contested three-pointer with nine seconds remaining and missed the shot. Bennerman seems to be the best candidate to handle the ball in closing games as he has demonstrated the most chutzpah in late-game situations. The shot missed, but the Wolfpack collected the rebound. Evtimov retreated behind the arc, followed by defensive-minded Yellow Jackets. As a senior sharpshooter, Evtimov needed to find a screen or shake a defender to the side. Instead, he dished to sophomore forward Gavin Grant, one of the few Wolfpack players who’s not a three-point threat. Grant acted clueless and drove toward the basket as time expired. Even if his floater had fallen, North Carolina State would have lost.
Why didn’t Evtimov shoot a three-pointer as soon as he got behind the line? Why didn’t Bennerman come to Grant to offer help when his teammate was trapped in the corner? Where was Engin Atsur? North Carolina State needs these key players to step forward, especially Bennerman and Evtimov. North Carolina State is running out of time to find a reliable leader at the end of games, and the NCAA Tournament does not offer second chances for indecisive play at clutch time.
Boston College Eagles (19-5, 7-4)
Last week:
Win: at Wake Forest, 72-66
Win: Clemson, 67-61
Next two:
Feb. 13: Stony Brook
Feb. 16: Miami
This article has already documented the rise of the Eagles and their scheduling difficulties – or lack there of – down the stretch. Like Duke and North Carolina State, Boston College is one of the few ACC squads that can feel comfortable about its ability to earn an NCAA Tournament invitation. But the Eagles must have concerns about their ability to advance in the NCAA Tournament.
Using basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy’s work as a baseline, Boston College has a troubling defense ineptitude. Despite recent success, Boston College does not win big often. The Eagles haven’t won by more than 10 points since the first game of 2006 when they beat Massachusetts by 29. One reason that Boston College doesn’t blow out teams is that the Eagles play a slow tempo but don’t shut down opponents on defense. Boston College allows more points per possession than any other team, which means that opponents score more often when they have the ball. But Boston College plays at a slower pace and doesn’t commit many turnovers, so opponents have fewer opportunities to score in 40 minutes than against teams that play faster, such as Maryland.
With that statistic in hand, it should come as no surprise that Boston College’s defensive field goal percentage is one of the worst in the conference. Teams shoot nearly 50 percent in Pomeroy’s effective field goal shooting percentage category, which rewards three-point shots. But the Eagles don’t allow more three-pointers than other teams, they just can’t stop opponents from getting inside. Boston College needs to step up the interior defense to succeed in the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore forward Sean Williams, who missed the first month because he was academically ineligible, has not adjusted well since returning to the lineup. A gifted shot blocker, Williams can’t stay out of foul trouble. As talented as senior forward Craig Smith and junior forward Jared Dudley are, they need Williams to return to last season’s form or else the Eagles could be doomed to disappointment in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina Tar Heels (15-6, 6-4)
Last week:
Loss: Duke, 87-83
Win: at Miami, 80-70
Next two:
Feb. 15: Georgia Tech
Feb. 19: at Wake Forest
To everyone’s surprise, the Tar Heels just won’t go away. North Carolina remains near the top of the ACC, despite losing three home games in the conference. Last week’s win at Miami all but ensured North Carolina a spot in the NCAA Tournament, barring a six-game collapse to end the season. The Tar Heels occupy fourth place in the ACC entering this week with two winnable games against Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest. If North Carolina can move to 8-4 entering next week when they play at North Carolina State and vs. Maryland, the Tar Heels have a good chance of finishing among the top three again this season.
Junior swingman Reyshawn Terry has been a major catalyst for North Carolina’s continued success, but he still has the potential to improve. Terry scored 35 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in two games last week, but he played only 46 minutes because of foul trouble. At that scoring rate, he would have put up more than 30 points if he had been able to play 40 minutes in a full game. Granted, coach Roy Williams is not going to play anyone for a full game without rest. But he probably would like to see Terry remain more poised on the defensive end so that he could stay on the court longer. If Terry can log 30-35 minutes each game, the Tar Heels will be hard to beat down the stretch.
Miami Hurricanes (14-10, 6-5)
Last week:
Loss: North Carolina State, 86-77 (2 OT)
Loss: North Carolina, 80-70
Next two:
Feb. 16: at Boston College
Feb. 19: at Duke
Just when everyone was ready to pencil Miami into the NCAA Tournament as the sixth team from the ACC, the Hurricanes regressed last week. They lost two home games to the North Carolinas – 87-77 in double overtime to North Carolina State and then 80-70 to the Tar Heels. Miami allowed the Tar Heels to shoot better than 55 percent from the field and couldn’t keep North Carolina off the boards. As a team, Miami managed to collect only 17 rebounds. Although the Hurricanes were better on the boards against North Carolina State, they still allowed the Wolfpack to shoot better than 47 percent from the field.
Miami is in the midst of a brutal four-game stretch in which they play four ranked teams. For the Hurricanes to prove NCAA Tournament-worthy, they need to collect at least one win against the ranked squads. After whiffing at home against the Wolfpack and Tar Heels, that means Miami must now go on the road to Duke and Boston College pick up a win. A four-game skid at this juncture in the season could doom any Tournament dreams for the Hurricanes. With a third road game against Maryland on the schedule, the Hurricanes have plenty of opportunities to pick up big wins. Save a win in Chapel Hill, however, this Miami team has not shown any reason to believe that the Hurricanes will win any of those games.
Virginia Cavaliers (12-9, 6-5)
Last week:
Loss: at Maryland, 76-65
Win: Virginia Tech, 81-77 (OT)
Next two:
Feb. 15: Longwood
Feb. 18: at Florida State
Following a split last week against Maryland and Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers remain firmly stuck in the middle of the ACC’s pack. At 12-9, Virginia has a solid chance of remaining above .500 and earning a trip to the NIT. If Virginia can manage to beat Boston College and North Carolina down the stretch, the Cavaliers might become a more realistic option for the NCAA Tournament, especially if they finish with at least 10 ACC wins. But a top-four finish does not guarantee a bid, as Virginia Tech discovered last season when the Hokies finished fourth but missed the tournament. The selection committee opted for North Carolina State, which finished sixth but had a stronger tournament résumé. Virginia could face the same fate as its in-state rival, which the Cavaliers beat last week for the second time this season.
Regardless of where the Cavaliers play in the post-season, coach Dave Leitao should be the coach of the year for getting the Virginia reconstruction project started much faster than anyone anticipated. Last season, Virginia finished 4-12 in the ACC and were generally uncompetitive against most teams. This season, the Cavaliers are a threat to beat any team, anywhere. Sophomore point guard Sean Singletary is a major reason why. He led the team to the overtime victory against Virginia Tech with 23 points and six rebounds. But the emergence of junior guard J.R. Reynolds is equally important, especially as Leitao figures out who he can count on next season. Reynolds had a remarkable game with 19 points and 12 assists against the Hokies, demonstrating he can more than sufficiently handle point guard duties when necessary.
Florida State Seminoles (15-6, 5-5)
Last week:
Win: Georgia Tech, 80-79
Win: Massachusetts, 73-63
Next two:
Feb. 15: at North Carolina State
Feb. 18: Virginia
With two more wins last week, the Seminoles reached 15 wins for the season, guaranteeing a winning season. To accompany the winning season, the Seminoles are likely bound for the post-season. The question is whether Florida State can collect enough wins to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. With a horrid non-conference schedule power rating – Pomeroy ranks them 317 out of 334 – the Seminoles are relying on conference victories to carry them to the promised land. But the best win so far is a road victory against Virginia. That’s not exactly inspiring. The NIT looks far more likely.
The Seminoles are part of the NCAA Tournament discussion because of solid play from the more experienced players and the maturation of the team’s sophomores. With starting point guard Todd Galloway graduating after this season and sixth-year sharpshooter Andrew Wilson finally moving on, Florida State will have some holes to fill next season. But the trio of young guards in Isaiah Swann, Jason Rich and Ralph Mims seem to improve by the week. They all need to improve their shooting strokes in the off-season, but coach Leonard Hamilton must be happy with their improvement. The sophomores collectively average about 25 points per game, and that figure will only increase when Wilson and Galloway move on. Watch how these three finish the season because continuous improvement will help build confidence for next season when the Seminoles could join the ACC’s elite.
Maryland Terrapins (15-8, 5-5)
Last week:
Win: Virginia, 76-65
Loss: Duke, 96-88
Next two:
Feb. 14: at Clemson
Feb. 18: Georgia Tech
Maryland has a tough road ahead for earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Terrapins play four of their final six games on the road, with stops at Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia. All four of those teams are tough outs this season. But the Tigers could once again prove to be Terp killers.
Last season, Maryland stumbled down the stretch after a strong start to the season. Maryland beat Duke twice last season and was the only ACC team to win at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Those two marquis wins couldn’t overcome three losses to Clemson, however, including the death blow in the opening round of the ACC Tournament. This season, Maryland lost senior guard Chris McCray in mid-January after he was declared academically ineligible. Since McCray left the lineup, Maryland is 2-4, with losses to Temple, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Duke. Those losses are not horrible, although the loss to the Owls is not great. But Maryland plays Clemson this week, and a fourth consecutive loss to the Tigers could be a symbol of another Maryland collapse.
Clemson Tigers (14-10, 3-8)
Last week:
Loss: Virginia Tech, 75-74 (OT)
Loss: at Boston College, 67-61
Next two:
Feb. 14: Maryland
Feb. 22: at Wake Forest
After starting the ACC 3-3, the Tigers are now in the midst of a five-game losing streak and falling to the bottom of the conference standings. One reason for Clemson’s recent struggles is poor shooting. Clemson jacks up more three-point attempts than nearly any other ACC team, but they hit less than 30 percent of those attempts. Five players have attempted at least 60 three-pointers this season, but only junior guard Vernon Hamilton and freshman guard K.C. Rivers hit more than 30 percent. Rivers has developed into a more reliable shooter, and he hit 3-of-7 three-pointers against Boston College.
As the Tigers wind down this season, coach Oliver Purnell needs freshman forward Julius Powell to become more assertive in the mix. Powell is one of the few returning forwards for next season, but he doesn’t attack the glass for rebounds like senior Akin Akingbala. Powell has not grabbed more than four rebounds in any ACC game this season. Purnell will rely on suspended forward James Mays in the post next season, but Powell needs to offer some assistance or else the Tigers will encounter the same interior concerns that they have this season.
Virginia Tech Hokies (13-11, 3-8)
Last week:
Win: at Clemson, 75-74 (OT)
Loss: at Virginia, 81-77 (OT)
Next two:
Feb. 18: North Carolina State
Feb. 22: at Miami
The Hokies are not going to finish near the top of the ACC standings this season like they did last season, but they certainly are playing like they belong there. Virginia Tech needed seven games to win its first conference game and picked up two more wins since then. Although eight losses in 11 ACC games sounds ugly, seven of those losses were by less than 10 points. The Hokies have been so close so many times. The absence of a finisher is one reason for the tight losses.
Last season, the Hokies relied on the services of senior guard Carlos Dixon to deliver knockout punches late in games. With Dixon gone, the Hokies don’t have someone who will consistently hit winning shots. Junior guards Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon are the most likely options, but Dowdell has not shot well this season. He is hitting less than 42 percent of his shots, although he’s a better long-range shooter than Gordon, who shoots only 31 percent from three-point range. And neither is automatic from the free-throw line. The good news is that the future game changer may already be on the roster. Freshman swingman A.D. Vassallo is becoming more confident and earning more playing time. He’s a 44.5 percent shooter from the field, including 37 percent from three-point range. And he’s more consistent from the free-throw line, shooting 74 percent. ACC foes better take advantage of Vassallo’s youth now because he promises to deliver a handful of memorable moments for Hokie fans in the near future.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-12, 3-8)
Last week:
Loss: at Florida State, 80-79
Win: North Carolina State, 71-68
Next two:
Feb. 15: at North Carolina
Feb. 18: at Georgia Tech
After watching the team’s losing streak stretch to eight games, the Yellow Jackets served notice to the rest of the ACC that Georgia Tech remains one of the tougher places to play. The Yellow Jackets beat North Carolina State 71-68 by hitting 54 percent from the field and three-point range. Georgia Tech is 3-3 in Atlanta during ACC play, effectively holding down home court despite a sometimes ineffective attack.
Sophomore guard Zam Fredrick put together his best games last week in a tough one-point loss at Florida State and a sizzling 71-68 win against the Wolfpack. In each game, Fredrick hit 3-of-4 three-point attempts. Fredrick scored a season-high 22 points against North Carolina State on 9-of-12 shooting. Despite leading the offensive barrage, he still dished out five assists. If the past two games are an indication that Fredrick has matured into the type of scoring point guard that coach Paul Hewitt knew he recruited, the Yellow Jackets have a bright future. With a franchise shooting guard in sophomore Anthony Morrow, the Yellow Jackets only needed a solid point guard who can hit timely shots to bolster the backcourt. Sophomores Ra’Sean Dickey and Jeremis Smith anchor the low post. Once those four sophomores build chemistry and start to play well simultaneously, Hewitt will have a group as dangerous and explosive as recent Tournament-proven Yellow Jacket teams.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (13-11, 1-9)
Last week:
Loss: Boston College, 72-66
Win: Charlotte, 59-56
Next two:
Feb. 14: at Duke
Feb. 19: North Carolina
It figures that Wake Forest would end a six-game losing streak in a game in which shooting sensation Justin Gray scores only four points. Gray and fellow senior Eric Williams have been the main reasons that the Demon Deacons continue to fill Lawrence Joel Coliseum. That and team loyalty from a rabid fan base. But the team’s utter failure to win big games has tested the faith of that fan base. So when Gray hits only 2-of-11 shots, the odds of the Demon Deacons winning seems slim to none – unless they hold the opponent to 28 percent shooting.
Wake Forest uncharacteristically won a defensive battle with nearby Charlotte. The regional battle turned ugly as the teams combined to commit 46 fouls but hit only 39 field goal attempts. The made shots outnumbered the turnovers by only two. Despite the bad basketball, Wake Forest played tough and won on the shoulders of Williams, who scored 18 points and grabbed 13 rebounds. Gray’s bad shooting night yielded four points before he fouled out in the closing minutes. Gray committed as many turnovers as assists, rebounds and made field goals combined. Ouch.
