Crystal Basketball

NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball

by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos

February 17, 2006

In the final four weeks, the NCAA Tournament dance card is becoming a tad clearer than it was just a few weeks ago. The fuzziness will continue to fade when the conference tournaments begin in a couple of weeks, as the smaller conference bids will be clear-cut and teams from the major and mid-major conferences will battle for the remaining at-large berths.

The hottest bracket topic right now is the issue of seeding George Washington. With one loss and en route to an unbeaten, landslide Atlantic 10 championship, the Colonials are in the discussion for a No. 1 seed – though few lean this way – or a No. 2, 3 or 4 seed.

If Pops’ squad wins all their remaining games and takes home the Atlantic 10 Tournament title in Cincinnati, Dan Hauptman sees the Colonials as no worse than a No. 2 seed. Hauptman assigns George Washington this seed by examining the résumé of another one-loss team from the A-10, the 2004 Saint Joseph’s Hawks. According to the committee, Jameer Nelson, Delonte West and the other high-flying Hawks were good enough to be the top seed in their region. Hauptman argues that if that was the case, then two years later, the Colonials deserve to be at least a No. 2 seed.

Michael Protos cites the much tougher schedule that Phil Martelli’s team played compared with the slate of opponents that Karl Hobbs’ Colonials have faced this season in pitting George Washington as a No. 3 seed. He grants the Colonials a No. 3 seed because they just keep winning, although he believes any of this week’s No. 4 seeds could finish strong enough to steal George Washington’s No. 3 seed.

Protos shows less love for the Colonials because of their non-conference strength of schedule, among the 20 easiest slates of all 334 Division I teams. He thinks that’s embarrassing for a potential NCAA team. Although George Washington reminds folks of the 2004 Hawks because they’re both in the Atlantic 10, the Colonials better resemble last season’s Pacific Tigers, seeded No. 9. The Tigers finished 26-3 with an outstanding run, but the team’s overall strength of schedule was only ranked 134 – and Pacific beat four teams ranked in the RPI top 50. George Washington has only one win against this year’s top 50.

Protos does not mean to insinuate that the selection committee will banish George Washington to a No. 9 seed, but the Colonials are no No. 1 seed and probably not a No. 2 in his view.

But George Washington is only one of 65 teams in the field. Here’s what Hauptman and Protos see for everyone else in this week’s Crystal Basketball.

Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope	Protos’ Prognostications
Duke Connecticut Memphis Villanova	Duke Villanova Memphis Connecticut
Texas Gonzaga Illinois George Washington	Texas Tennessee Iowa Pittsburgh
Tennessee Iowa Pittsburgh UCLA	Gonzaga Ohio State UCLA George Washington
Ohio State Florida Michigan State West Virginia	West Virginia Florida Illinois Wisconsin
North Carolina State LSU Oklahoma Boston College	Michigan State North Carolina State Georgetown North Carolina
North Carolina Wisconsin Wichita State Kansas	Kansas Boston College LSU Washington
Georgetown Bucknell Arizona Northern Iowa	Seton Hall Wichita State Oklahoma Marquette
Wisconsin-Milwaukee Marquette Michigan Seton Hall	Northern Iowa Bucknell Michigan Nevada
California George Mason Southern Illinois Cincinnati	George Mason Creighton Kentucky Missouri State
Creighton Nevada Colorado Missouri State	Arizona Cincinnati California Western Kentucky
Indiana Kentucky UAB Washington	Southern Illinois Colorado UAB Syracuse
San Diego State Miami UNC-Wilmington Alabama	Alabama Indiana UNC-Wilmington Air Force
Maryland Akron Western Kentucky Murray State	Wisconsin-Milwaukee Kent State San Diego State Northwestern State
Penn Iona Winthrop Northern Arizona	Iona Murray State Penn Winthrop
IUPUI Northwestern State Davidson Albany	Pacific Georgia Southern Albany IUPUI
UC Irvine Fairleigh Dickinson Lipscomb Delaware State Southern	Northern Arizona Fairleigh Dickinson Delaware State Lipscomb Southern
Last four in: Miami UNC-Wilmington Alabama Maryland	Last four in: Alabama Indiana UNC-Wilmington Air Force
Last four out: Syracuse Utah State Air Force Temple	Last four out: Maryland South Carolina Utah State Iowa State
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big Ten: 7 ACC: 6 SEC: 5 Missouri Valley: 5 Big 12: 4 Pac-10: 4 Colonial: 2 Conference USA: 2 22 one-bid conferences	Conference Breakdown: Big East: 9 Big Ten: 7 Missouri Valley: 5 SEC: 5 ACC: 4 Big 12: 4 Pac-10: 4 Colonial: 2 Conference USA: 2 Mountain West: 2 21 one-bid conferences
Shooting Stars: Kansas Nevada UNC-Wilmington Missouri State	Shooting Stars: Washington Iowa Nevada Missouri State
Sinking Ships: Maryland Indiana Michigan State Northern Iowa	Sinking Ships: Maryland Indiana Michigan State Syracuse

Once again, Hauptman and Protos see relatively similar visions in the Crystal Basketball. They agree on the top four seeds – Duke, Connecticut, Memphis and Villanova – although they don’t necessarily agree on the order of those seeds. They both reward Duke with the top overall spot following Connecticut’s loss to Villanova. But Protos has the Wildcats leapfrogging the Tigers and Huskies for the second overall No. 1 seed while relegating Connecticut to the fourth overall No. 1 seed. His rationale is that all four teams have two losses or fewer, and Connecticut’s loss at Marquette is the worst loss of all four of the teams.

Near the bottom of the field, Hauptman and Protos welcome mid-major squads UNC – Wilmington and Missouri State to the field this week in favor of at least one well-known Tournament name. Hauptman has Syracuse on the outside looking in for the first time this week. Protos puts Maryland out after the Terrapins once again proved incapable of jumping the Clemson hurdle. Three losses to the Tigers last season doomed Maryland, while one loss this year might be enough for the Terps to suffer a second consecutive NIT fate.

Those two major conference teams account for half of the differences between Hauptman’s field and Protos’. Hauptman also foresees Miami making the NCAA Tournament, while Protos hands his last at-large bid to Air Force. Hauptman has Syracuse and Air Force among his last four out, and Protos has Maryland right on the wrong side of the bubble. But Miami is a bit further off his radar.

Although they don’t agree on the seeds, Hauptman and Protos predict the same 15 of 16 teams to earn the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The similar outlook indicates an emerging class of elite teams that are starting to create separation from the others. One team that has slipped out of the elite is Michigan State, and both Hauptman and Protos noticed the Spartans’ slide. The RPI would dictate that Michigan State receive a No. 3 seed, but neither Hauptman nor Protos has the Spartans higher than a No. 4 seed.

Other sinking ships include Maryland, Indiana – with or without Mike Davis at the helm, the Hoosiers are struggling – Syracuse and Northern Iowa. The Panthers have a huge game Saturday against Bucknell. The winner will earn the title of most likely mid-major squad to reach the Sweet 16 this year. The loser probably won’t earn anything higher than a No. 9 seed, though Northern Iowa will have more opportunities than Bucknell will to rectify a loss.

Half of the shooting stars differ for Hauptman and Protos, but both agree that Nevada and Missouri State are on fire. The two have shot up the RPI charts and are likely to receive equal compensation from the selection committee should they continue their success. Hauptman also gives props to Kansas and UNC Wilmington, while Protos gives a shout out to the resurgent Washington Huskies and the Big Ten’s finest, Iowa.

Speaking of the Big Ten, one of the more interesting elements of this week’s field is the difference in interpretation in that conference’s power spectrum. According to Hauptman, the top four, in order, are Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State. On the other hand, Protos indicates that the order should be Iowa, Ohio State, Illinois and Wisconsin. The standings say that neither is right, with the top four by conference record being Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State.

Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Protos and Hauptman off target? Send us e-mail to comment on the Crystal Basketball. Then check back each week to follow the evolution of Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the NCAA Tournament.