Crystal Basketball

NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball

by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos

February 24, 2006

There are only three weekends left – tick, tock, tick, tock. The NCAA selection committee will convene in less than a fortnight, and many issues remain unresolved.

Two big debates circle the conferences unanimously regarded as the top two, the Big Ten and the Big East. These are the best conferences according to the RPI, Dan Hauptman, Michael Protos and virtually everybody else that has a finger on the pulse of college basketball this season.

The most burning questions about the two leagues are where to seed the five Big Ten teams that are guaranteed to be invited to the Big Dance. And can the Big East really get a record nine teams into the tournament?

Hauptman has been consistent in his Hoops Horoscope. A Big Ten team will earn a No. 1 or 2 seed. He argues that the league has been so good at the top that the selection committee will reward the winner of the regular season and/or the conference tournament.

As for the Big East, Hauptman has swayed between eight and nine teams getting into the field of 65. He believes that nine teams will get in but warns that a few more clunkers and a short stay in the conference tournament in New York could prevent Syracuse and Seton Hall from making the tourney.

Protos does not feel that a Big Ten team will automatically receive a No. 1 or 2 seed. But among Ohio State, Iowa and Illinois, one of those teams is likely to pick up enough big wins down the stretch, especially in the Big Ten Tournament, to earn a No. 2 seed. A No. 1 seed is not going to happen, however, for any teams from the Big Ten unless one of the top four collapses down the stretch. The profiles of Duke, Connecticut, Villanova and Memphis are far stronger than that of any Big Ten team.

Meanwhile, on the subject of the Big East, Protos likewise puts nine teams in the field this week. Ignoring the conference’s overall strong RPI, these nine teams have earned the right to play in the NCAA Tournament. Eight of the nine teams have at least three wins against the RPI top 50. That’s more than Kentucky or Boston College can say. The one team that doesn’t – Syracuse – has beaten only two top 50 squads but has seven of its eight losses to those teams.

The Orange’s victory against West Virginia Feb. 20 likely secures a bid as long as Syracuse avoids a loss at DePaul next week. Cincinnati plays at Seton Hall next week in what has become a bigger game for the Pirates than the Bearcats. The loser likely needs to win one more game in the regular season or conference tournament to feel more secure about an NCAA Tournament bid. If that happens, count on nine from the Big East.

Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope	Protos’ Prognostications
Duke Connecticut Memphis Villanova	Duke Villanova Connecticut Memphis
Texas Gonzaga Ohio State George Washington	Tennessee Ohio State Texas Gonzaga
Tennessee Iowa Pittsburgh UCLA	Pittsburgh George Washington UCLA Iowa
Illinois North Carolina Oklahoma LSU	Illinois North Carolina Kansas Michigan State
Florida Kansas Michigan State West Virginia	Marquette Florida LSU West Virginia
Boston College Wisconsin North Carolina State Wichita State	Oklahoma Washington Wisconsin North Carolina State
Arizona Northern Iowa Georgetown Marquette	Nevada Wichita State Bucknell Georgetown
California Wisconsin-Milwaukee Bucknell Missouri State	Boston College Michigan Alabama Creighton
Washington Michigan Cincinnati Nevada	Kentucky Syracuse George Mason Cincinnati
Kentucky George Mason Seton Hall Creighton	Missouri State Northern Iowa Arizona Arkansas
Colorado UAB UNC-Wilmington Syracuse	UNC-Wilmington UAB Seton Hall Western Kentucky
Air Force Alabama Western Kentucky San Diego State	Utah State Hofstra California San Diego State
Houston Murray State Maryland Kent State	Air Force Wisconsin-Milwaukee Kent State Iona
Iona Penn Winthrop Northern Arizona	Northwestern State Murray State Penn Winthrop
Northwestern State IUPUI Albany Georgia Southern	Pacific Georgia Southern IUPUI Northern Arizona
UC Irvine Lipscomb Fairleigh Dickinson Delaware State Southern	Albany Fairleigh Dickinson Delaware State Belmont Southern
Last four in: Alabama San Diego State Houston Maryland	Last four in: Utah State Hofstra California Air Force
Last four out: Bradley Hofstra Indiana Miami	Last four out: Indiana Southern Illinois Colorado Houston
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 9 Big Ten: 6 ACC: 5 SEC: 5 Big 12: 4 Missouri Valley: 4 Pac-10: 4 Conference USA: 3 Colonial: 2 Mountain West: 2 21 one-bid conferences	Conference Breakdown: Big East: 9 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 6 ACC: 4 Missouri Valley: 4 Pac-10: 4 Big 12: 3 Colonial: 3 Conference USA: 2 Mountain West: 2 WAC: 2 20 one-bid conferences
Shooting Stars: Kansas Nevada North Carolina Missouri State	Shooting Stars: Marquette Kansas Alabama Arkansas
Sinking Ships: North Carolina State Seton Hall West Virginia Florida	Sinking Ships: Southern Illinois Colorado Seton Hall Northern Iowa

After moving toward consensus last week, Hauptman and Protos see more differences in the field this week, although not at the top. Once again, both NCAA field specialists give the top seeds to Connecticut, Duke, Memphis and Villanova, with the Blue Devils taking the top overall spot.

If Duke continues its stranglehold at the top, an interesting battle will occur between Connecticut and Villanova. One of those teams will likely be the top seed in the Washington, D.C., region while the other will be in Minneapolis or Oakland. Hauptman gives Connecticut the nod as the second-best No. 1 seed and the likely owner of the Washington region’s No. 1 spot. But Protos gives it to Villanova and would probably ship the Huskies to Minnesota. Sunday’s encore presentation of the Big East’s best will likely settle this discussion.

Hauptman and Protos continue to agree on most of the top four seeds. They agree on 14 of 16 teams at the top. Hauptman gives Oklahoma and LSU No. 4 seeds, but Protos prefers Kansas and Michigan State. Oklahoma’s numbers are much stronger than Kansas’ – No. 16 vs. 42 in the RPI – but Protos cannot rationalize placing the Sooners ahead of the Jayhawks when Oklahoma trails Kansas by two games in the Big 12 standings.

The Big 12 accounts for another difference in Hauptman’s and Protos’ fields. Hauptman gives Colorado an invitation, but Protos declines to extend the same offer. He takes Utah State, Hofstra and California, while Hauptman selects Houston and Maryland, in addition to the Buffaloes. Houston is rising quickly and has strong early season victories against Arizona and at LSU. Maryland has no losses outside the top 100, which none of Protos’ last few invitees can say. And the Terrapins and Buffaloes have played stronger schedules than any of Protos’ three.

Protos considered those three teams that Hauptman foresees – mostly Houston and Colorado – but opted for teams are season-long winners. Utah State and Hofstra have reached 20 wins, at least three more than Colorado, Houston or Maryland. California and Air Force were the most difficult teams to place. The margin of error for the last five or six teams in the field is so slim because another five or six teams are right behind them and ready to steal a spot.

The agony of choosing the final few teams in the NCAA Tournament may become a moot point in conference tournament play. Invariably, teams that aren’t at-large considerations steal a bid or two by upsetting teams that are more solid at-large squads than the likes of Hofstra, Maryland or Air Force. The latter three – and their bubble brethren – have a self-evident task ahead: just win. And that, of course, is much easier said than done.

Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Protos and Hauptman off target? Send us e-mail to comment on the Crystal Basketball. Then check back each week to follow the evolution of Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the NCAA Tournament.