Missouri Valley Conference Notebook
by Neal Heston
Valley Tidbits
- Don’t adjust the brackets; you read it correctly. Southern Illinois is not the top seed heading into the MVC Tournament this weekend – the first time in four years. However, No. 2 isn’t so bad – especially this season. Maybe not being No. 1 will give SIU a little more luck in the tourney.
- It is quite possible that by Sunday, six Valley teams will boast 20 wins. The league record is four – reached the last two seasons. Wichita State, Missouri State and Northern Iowa are at 20 wins right now. Southern Illinois and Creighton sit at 19, and Bradley has 18.
- A magical season without its shining star has still kept the Qwest Center full. Even with Nate Funk out, Creighton became the first MVC school ever to record a season attendance of at least 200,000. The Bluejays drew 216,098 for an average of almost 14,500.
Hoopville’s MVC Player of the Week: Marcellus Sommerville, Bradley
Seems smart to pick a player from the hottest team in the league. Sommerville averaged 20.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two blowout victories. His Braves will attempt to claim their first MVC Tournament title since 1988.
Postseason Watch
Heading into St. Louis this weekend, six teams know they will be participating in some sort of postseason. It is just a matter of which one. All six have arguments to demand an NCAA bid, but some resumes need a little touchup. Here are my picks pre-MVC Tourney:
Wichita State: NCAA
Why: Everyone has heard the hoopla about the Valley this season, and the Shockers won the title outright. Even with a one-and-done at the conference tournament, rejecting WSU would be an injustice.
Status: Lock
Missouri State: NCAA
Why: Missouri State has wins at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, at Oral Roberts and at Northern Iowa, and it is 8-2 during the last 10 games – five of those contests against the MVC’s upper division. With a nice 8-5 record away from Hammons Student Center, the Bears will likely get in with a one-and-done in St. Louis, too.
Status: Lock
Northern Iowa: NCAA
Why: Why should a team that has lost four of five games and just got shelled by 20 at home still be in the NCAA Tourney? Easy, the Panthers still have a top 35 RPI, a 7-5 mark away from home and wins over Wichita State (twice – the only MVC team to do so), Bucknell, LSU and Iowa – all teams that will be dancing.
Why Not: A 5-5 record in the last 10 games won’t help, but it is the Panthers’ first slump of the season and half of those contests were against the Valley’s upper division. (Three of the past four losses have come by an average of two points, as well.) Bad losses include at Indiana State and the 71-49 defeat to Bradley last Tuesday.
Status: Slips in
Creighton: NCAA
Why: Creighton owns impressive wins over George Mason, Nebraska, Xavier and Wichita State, and the Bluejays are 6-4 in their last 10 contests – six against the Valley’s upper half. Also add in a No. 32 RPI.
Why Not: Bad losses include struggles at Chattanooga early in the season and at Illinois State. Add a 5-7 record away from the Qwest Center.
Status: Tip-toes in
Southern Illinois: NCAA
Why: Saturday’s defensive win over Northern Iowa was impressive, but the conference tourney will still be important for the Salukis. SIU also owns wins over Murray State and Wichita State and also sits high in the RPI at No. 40.
Why Not: Early season struggles might come back to bite the Salukis now, as bad losses to Monmouth, Alaska-Anchorage, Indiana State and Evansville will hurt. SIU is also 5-5 in the last 10 games – but again, six of those against the conference’s upper half. A bow out in the MVC quarterfinals this year may buy Southern Illinois a ticket to the NIT.
Status: One of last few in
Bradley: NIT
Why Not: The selection committee loves hot teams, and Bradley is 8-2 in its last 10. So why not include the Braves? Only four of the past 10 contests have been against the Valley’s upper half. Prior to this hot streak, the Braves were fighting through a 3-5 struggle, in which they played six games against the top half. Also throw in bad losses at Indiana State and Loyola-Chicago and a 5-8 road record.
Why: When the Braves win, they win. Two impressive victories include a 22-point drubbing of Northern Iowa and a 17-point win over Creighton. A journey to the MVC Tourney finals would probably catapult the Braves into the NCAA – a strong possibility.
Status: Work to do
Previewing the MVC Tournament
Trying to predict the Valley Tournament is worse than trying to guess the NCAA bracket, but here is my shot at it
Play-in: No. 9 Indiana State vs. No. 8 Drake
This is a match featuring two teams that have struggled greatly. Indiana State has gone 4-15 since its remarkable 8-0 start, and Drake has lost 10 of its last 11. The difference maker in this game is how each team has lost. Five of Drake’s losses during its struggle have come down to the wire. Indiana State’s lone down-to-the-wire contest was at Evansville on Saturday. Drake owns a 2-0 record in the season series, but that was versus a Sycamore team without David Moss. Enough said.
Pick: Indiana State
Play-in: No. 10 Illinois State vs. No. 7 Evansville
The only thing keeping Illinois State from a nine-game losing streak is an overtime triumph at home versus Drake – and these losses haven’t been close. Meanwhile, Evansville’s fourth-leading scorer averages almost as much as Illinois States’ top scorer. Add in a 3-2 record during the past five games for Evansville, which includes a stunner over Southern Illinois. A combined 37.1-point average from UE’s Matt Webster, Kyle Anslinger and Jason Holsinger will make the difference.
Pick: Evansville
Quarterfinal: No. 1 Wichita State vs. No. 9 Indiana State
Don’t expect a blowout by Wichita State in this one. The Shockers have gone 3-1 during the past four games – winning the three contests by an average of just more than three points. The presence of David Moss, who scores more than 16 points per game, should keep Indiana State close for a while, but WSU prevails because of depth.
Pick: Wichita State
Quarterfinal: No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 5 Bradley
Aside from Southern Illinois, Creighton has struggled with one other opponent this season – this Friday’s, to be exact. The Bluejays were manhandled at Bradley during early January, losing 86-69, and barely pulled off a home win versus the Braves two weeks later. I mentioned Bradley’s sub-par record against the upper half of the MVC, but the Braves should improve upon that in the Quarters because of two reasons: Patrick O’Bryant and Marcellus Sommerville. The two combine for almost 30 points per game – two of four BU players who average double figures in points.
Pick: Bradley
Quarterfinal: No. 2 Southern Illinois vs. No. 7 Evansville
Can the Aces pull off another stunner? Something says the Salukis won’t let the 64-59 loss to UE on Feb. 21 happen again – especially when a loss will revoke Southern Illinois’ Dance invitation. It would be safe to expect a double-digit win here for SIU.
Pick: Southern Illinois
Quarterfinal: No. 3 Missouri State vs. No. 6 Northern Iowa
Two weeks ago, Northern Iowa was a lock for the NCAA Tourney. Now it must win one, if not two games in St. Louis to feel safe heading into Selection Sunday. Though MSU upset the Panthers in the UNI-Dome a couple weeks ago, UNI made uncharacteristic mistakes. In addition, the Panthers almost pulled themselves out of a slump at Southern Illinois on Saturday. It’s only a matter of time.
Pick: Northern Iowa
Semifinal: No. 1 Wichita State vs. No. 5 Bradley
This should be the game that finally makes Bradley’s case for the NCAA Tournament. The red hot Braves have already notched two strong victories over Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa the past two weeks. To make a nice case for an at-large possibility, they need to pick up two wins in St. Louis as well.
Pick: Bradley
Semifinal: No. 2 Southern Illinois vs. No. 6 Northern Iowa
This should be the game of the tournament. UNI took the first contest during the first meeting in double overtime at Cedar Falls. Southern Illinois used a bucket late in the game to beat the Panthers by one in Carbondale last Saturday. Between two of the Valley’s top defenses, expect both squads to struggle to reach 50 points and a classic finish again.
Pick: Northern Iowa
Championship: No. 5 Bradley vs. No. 6 Northern Iowa
Just reaching this game will send both of these squads into the NCAA Tournament – which would spell disaster for either Creighton or Southern Illinois. Definitely don’t expect to see another 22-point blowout from Bradley again, but do expect another BU victory. We hear the saying over and over that “One of the toughest things to do is beat a team three times in one season.” But the Braves have UNI’s number this year. Again, Patrick O’Bryant should cause headaches for the Panthers and will be the difference maker.
Pick: Bradley
