NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
March 6, 2006
With Championship Week(s) well under way, Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos must consult the Crystal Basketball more frequently to monitor the ever-changing outlook for the NCAA Tournament. Some elements of the field of 65 are becoming clearer, while others remain as foggy as ever.
Since Hauptman and Protos last looked into the Crystal Basketball Friday morning, six teams have won their conference titles and automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament: Belmont, Davidson, Murray State, Pennsylvania, Southern Illinois and Winthrop. None of those teams stole bids from the bubble teams, who need all the help they can get.
With Selection Sunday now less than a week away, Hauptman and Protos are starting to see a similar vision of the NCAA Tournament. They disagree on one at-large team, as Hauptman puts Florida State in the field while Protos has UNC-Wilmington. With the Seahawks playing Hofstra for the CAA championship Monday night, that discrepancy could be inconsequential.
In a weekend filled with bubble movement, the Missouri Valley Conference provided the most compelling story lines as six teams jockeyed for NCAA Tournament bids. But Hauptman and Protos only award the conference five bids. They foresee Creighton in serious bubble trouble as one of four teams just outside the tournament. Because the Bluejays lost to Bradley in the quarterfinals of the MVC Tournament, Creighton can only sit back and hope that selection committee members don’t agree with Hauptman and Protos.
Creighton’s loss was Bradley’s gain. The Braves stormed the MVC Tournament, beating the Blue Jays and top-seeded Wichita State before falling to Southern Illinois in the championship game. That run, coupled with the Braves’ late-season performance, is enough for Hauptman and Protos to give Bradley the edge.
As usual, Hauptman and Protos agree on most of the top 16 teams. Hauptman has Kansas as a No. 4 seed while Protos gives the last top four seed to Boston College. They vary on the specific placement of the teams.
At the top, Hauptman and Protos agree that Duke’s two-game losing streak will cost the Blue Devils a spot among the top two No. 1 seeds. Villanova’s solid week with wins against St. John’s and Syracuse moves the Wildcats into the No. 2 overall slot, sliding Duke to No. 3. The Big East and ACC tournaments figure to have a major impact on the order of these top teams as Hauptman and Protos view in the Crystal Basketball.
Without any further ado, here are the fields as predicted by Hauptman and Protos.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 Connecticut Villanova Duke Memphis |
Connecticut Villanova Duke Memphis |
 Texas Gonzaga Ohio State George Washington |
Texas Ohio State Illinois North Carolina |
 Illinois Tennessee North Carolina UCLA |
Gonzaga LSU UCLA George Washington |
 Iowa LSU Pittsburgh Kansas |
Tennessee Iowa Pittsburgh Boston College |
 Florida West Virginia Boston College Oklahoma |
Kansas Washington Florida West Virginia |
 Wichita State Washington Nevada Michigan State |
Marquette Oklahoma Nevada Michigan State |
 Arizona North Carolina State Wisconsin Georgetown |
Arkansas Wichita State Wisconsin Georgetown |
 Kentucky Marquette Southern Illinois* Missouri State |
Kentucky Southern Illinois* North Carolina State Bucknell |
 UAB Bucknell Cincinnati Northern Iowa |
Northern Iowa Seton Hall Arizona UAB |
 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Seton Hall Bradley California |
Cincinnati Alabama Indiana Michigan |
 Alabama Texas A&M Air Force Hofstra |
George Mason UNC-Wilmington Bradley California |
 Florida State Arkansas Indiana Western Kentucky |
Texas A&M Hofstra Missouri State Western Kentucky |
 George Mason Michigan Murray State* Kent State |
San Diego State Wisconsin-Milwaukee Kent State Iona |
 Iona Penn* Winthrop* Northern Arizona |
Northwestern State Murray State* Winthrop* Pacific |
 Northwestern State Oral Roberts Albany Pacific |
Penn* Oral Roberts Northern Arizona Davidson* |
 Davidson* Fairleigh Dickinson Belmont* Delaware State Southern |
Albany Delaware State Belmont* Fairleigh Dickinson Southern |
 Bubble Trouble:UNC-Wilmington Creighton Colorado Maryland |
Bubble Trouble: Creighton Florida State Air Force Syracuse |
| Bubble Bursting: Syracuse San Diego State Houston UTEP |
Bubble Bursting: Utah State Colorado Brigham Young Maryland |
| Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big Ten: 7 SEC: 6 ACC: 5 Missouri Valley: 5 Big 12: 4 Pac-10: 4 Conference USA: 2 Colonial: 2 22 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big Ten: 7 SEC: 6 Missouri Valley: 5 ACC: 4 Big 12: 4 Pac-10: 4 Colonial: 3 Conference USA: 2 22 one-bid conferences |
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout this final week, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer and clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. The calendar reads March. Madness ensues.
* – denotes won conference’s automatic bid
