NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
March 11, 2006
With less than 36 hours until the selection committee reveals the field, the Crystal Basketball has produced a clearer view of the 65 NCAA Tournament teams.
On the bubble, Dan Hauptman foresees Florida State squeaking into the tournament, with Seton Hall, Michigan and George Mason just missing. On the other hand, Michael Protos gives the CAA an unprecedented third bid to George Mason at the expense of Florida State, Seton Hall and Michigan.
Hauptman argues that the Pirates, Wolverines and Colonials don’t have the recent significant win to brag about like Florida State does against Duke last week. All three major conference teams lost early in their tournaments to opponents that aren’t going dancing. George Mason lost to bubble-mate Hofstra in the CAA tournament, and Hauptman gives the edge to the Pride, leaving the Colonials in the cold.
Protos prefers to take a broader view of Florida State’s season, which lacks any oomph outside the recent win vs. Duke. The Seminoles had the weakest non-conference schedule of the bunch, and their best win outside the ACC is against Nebraska. And compared with other ACC teams, the Seminoles had an easier run through the conference. George Mason, on the other hand, hasn’t lost to a team outside the NCAA Tournament discussion since late December. And the win at Wichita State in late February is an excellent boost to a solid résumé.
At the top, Hauptman and Protos also disagree on the top No. 1 seed. Duke rises to the top of Hauptman’s chart, while Protos still has Connecticut, at least until Duke beats an elite ACC team in the conference tournament. The Blue Devils will have an opportunity to do that if they reach the ACC championship Sunday.
Other questions that need answers before 6 p.m. tomorrow:
Here are the full results of the most recent Crystal Basketball projections. Teams with a star next to their name have clinched an automatic bid via a conference title.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 Duke Connecticut Villanova Memphis |
Connecticut Duke Villanova Memphis |
 Texas Gonzaga* Ohio State North Carolina |
Texas Ohio State North Carolina Gonzaga* |
 UCLA Pittsburgh LSU Illinois |
UCLA LSU Illinois Pittsburgh |
 Tennessee Iowa George Washington Kansas |
Iowa Boston College Tennessee George Washington |
 Boston College Florida West Virginia Michigan State |
Kansas Florida Michigan State West Virginia |
 Nevada Oklahoma Washington Wichita State |
Nevada Oklahoma Washington Marquette |
 Arizona Georgetown Kentucky Southern Illinois* |
Wichita State Georgetown Kentucky Southern Illinois* |
 Wisconsin Marquette UAB North Carolina State |
Wisconsin Arkansas Bucknell* UAB |
 Syracuse Missouri State San Diego State Northern Iowa |
Syracuse Arizona Northern Iowa Indiana |
 Bucknell* Texas A&M Indiana Wisconsin-Milwaukee* |
California Cincinnati UNC-Wilmington* San Diego State |
 UNC-Wilmington* Saint Joseph’s Arkansas California |
Texas A&M North Carolina State Bradley Wisconsin-Milwaukee* |
 Bradley Cincinnati Alabama Hofstra |
Alabama Saint Joseph’s Hofstra Missouri State |
 Kent State Florida State Murray State* South Alabama* |
George Mason South Alabama* Kent State Iona* |
 Iona* Penn* Montana* Winthrop* |
Northwestern State Murray State* Montana* Winthrop* |
 Northwestern State Oral Roberts* Albany Pacific |
Pacific Penn* Davidson* Albany |
 Davidson* Monmouth* Belmont* Delaware State Southern |
Delaware State Oral Roberts* Belmont* Southern Monmouth* |
 Bubble Trouble:Seton Hall Michigan George Mason Maryland |
Bubble Trouble: Seton Hall Florida State Michigan Utah State |
| Bubble Bursting: Colorado Creighton Air Force Houston |
Bubble Bursting: Creighton Maryland Colorado Houston |
| Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 6 ACC: 5 Missouri Valley: 5 Big 12: 4 Pac-10: 4 Atlantic 10: 2 Conference USA: 2 Colonial: 2 21 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 6 Missouri Valley: 5 ACC: 4 Big 12: 4 Pac-10: 4 Colonial: 3 Atlantic 10: 2 Conference USA: 2 21 one-bid conferences |
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout this final week, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer and clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. The calendar reads March. Madness ensues.
* – denotes won conference’s automatic bid
