2006 NBA Draft: The Night Before
June 28, 2006
The Scene: Hoopville’s secret draft headquarter hideout somewhere in New York City, New York
Holed up here in my own draft foxhole, I notice it’s finally arrived: draft day 2006!
Strategically positioned as the lone web-based talent prognosticator not doing a mock draft, I take great relief in not having to coerce, dream up or otherwise overuse my Ouija board to somehow match wits with some of the more witless mock draft authors out there.
I’ll always tip my hat to the guys (Chad Ford, Jay Bilas, Andy Katz) at legit places like ESPN, and I have personally seen their fine work in progress. But friends, all these tier-Z sites with their crazy scenarios and trade rumors should all be burned at the stake.
Our ratings available here detail as they have all season long, actual player ratings, and we continue to preview the draft that way.
We maintain who the top players are with no regard to where they may get drafted (or not).
Let’s begin with what could perhaps be the biggest top 5 gamble out there: Adam Morrison of Gonzaga. Think I’m nuts? Maybe I am, but hear me out.
Morrison battled Duke’s J.J. Redick all season long for player of the year honors and rightfully so. As a college player Morrison certainly starred throughout the year, but – and the emphasis is on but – for the most part, he trashed the competition in the weak-kneed WCC: West Coast Conference. Morrison ran up 28.1 ppg over the course of the entire regular season, but, even while he had some of his best games against some of the NCAA’s best teams – like 43 against Michigan State, as well as Washington – Morrison, and the team selecting him should not expect the same results when he goes against the world’s best basketball players. We expect to see Morrison struggle when he no longer has three players running interference and setting up his shots and instead must learn to put his pedal to the floor to get back on defense. And on defense Morrison will struggle, and struggle, and struggle. A below average college defender should not be expected to improve once he arrives in the league where they play for pay.
Our analysis: Morrison could be a 22+ scorer in the league, but the guys he’s responsible to guard may go off for 30. If so, then is he worthy of a top 5 selection? Adam Morrison is a solid player, but perhaps the most over-hyped player in this draft.
We love Tyrus Thomas. He’s still a teenager: he’ll turn 20 on August 17th, and his body and his game are both still growing. He played an awful lot of point guard before LSU, and it shows. A force on the wing and a wrecking crew in man-to-man defensive schemes, Thomas is the closest thing to a franchise player this draft has. Now a small forward, expect him to grow in to one powerful power forward in the next few years. He leads all the draft candidates in upside, he will get so much better still.
Patrick O’Bryant is the riskiest pick in this draft. If the team taking him is right, he’s the next franchise center in the league; guess wrong and he could be the next Michael Olowokandi. I don’t believe there’s any middle ground here, but he just turned 20 and the prospect of nabbing the next big thing may be too great for some teams to pass on. Stay tuned.
So while we mock the mocks and polish off our final player rankings, we wait with great anticipation for what will be a long day and a longer night, filled with real and imagined intrigue, solid information and transparent misinformation.
From the anticipated mass protests of disenfranchised New York Knicks fans to the hectic pace of the evening’s festivities, we’ll watch it all from the nerve center chair we have come to occupy every draft night – about 10 feet west of the green room, and 10 feet due south of the stage. And we will bring you a recap of the madness known the NBA Draft 2006 a day or so afterwards.
But first, after wading through the 60 selections, I’ll head for the comfy confines of my Sealy Posturpedic and an annual ritual of mine: post draft meltdown.
Just don’t mock me for crashing!
