Colonial Athletic Association 2006-07 Preview
The 2005-06 season was one for the books for the CAA. That was true even before the great run of George Mason to the Final Four, which along with Old Dominion reaching the NIT Final Four (defeating fellow CAA member Hofstra to get there) was the icing on a great cake. It was a historic season, with the conference posting six teams in the top 100 of the RPI and four in the postseason.
Now it’s time for the much-awaited follow-up. It’s a new cast, but the expectation is to keep up the success of last season. That doesn’t mean getting two teams to the Final Four in the respective tournaments, but certainly it means keeping up the number of teams in postseason play. There is plenty of confidence among the conference’s administration and coaches that this will happen.
“I think the conference is going to grow and not miss a beat and build off of last season,” Hofstra head coach Tom Pecora said at Media Day.
“It’s not a mid-major league any more. We’re playing a high-major level,” said Georgia State head coach Michael Perry.
A new season brings about change for any conference, but the CAA has that in abundance this time around. The conference sports four new head coaches, and there was plenty of talk that it could have been five or six. There has also been a major player exodus, especially among the league’s elite as only one member of last season’s first team All-CAA returns this season.
But change isn’t all bad, and that will be seen in the CAA this season. The four new head coaches all come with solid track records, and plenty of new talent is ready to shine. Last season’s success will surely pay dividends on the recruiting trail, but the overall effect of it on that end won’t be seen right away. A number of the newcomers also come with a good reputation and will give their teams a good boost either as key reserve role players or filling in for departed starters.
Since the season ended, most have pegged Hofstra as the favorite, and it’s easy to see why when one looks at their star-studded backcourt. But the Pride will have plenty of challengers, from a George Mason team that returns plenty from last season’s team to a Drexel team that lost a number of close games to a Towson team poised to make a real jump in the standings, to name a few. The conference looks strong at the top once again, while the bottom five spots could almost go any way in projecting the finish, as could a few places in the middle.
Preseason Awards
Player of the Year: Loren Stokes, Hofstra
Rookie of the Year: Andre Smith, George Mason
Top Freshman: Danny Sumner, William & Mary
Defensive Player of the Year: Will Thomas, George Mason
Primed to Break Out: Brian Henderson, Old Dominion
All-CAA Team
Antoine Agudio, Jr. G, Hofstra
Dominick Mejia, Sr. G, Drexel
Gary Neal, Sr. G, Towson
Loren Stokes, Sr. G, Hofstra
Will Thomas, Jr. F, George Mason
Hofstra (26-7, 14-4 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Loren Stokes (17.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.6 spg)
Sr. G Carlos Rivera (11.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.5 spg)
Jr. G Antoine Agudio (17.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.7 apg)
So. F Mike Davis-Sabb (1.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg)
So. F Chris Gadley (1.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Pride did manage to get some good non-conference games, although only three games (including their game in the BracketBusters event) are at home. Among the highlights are games at Charlotte and at Syracuse, while they will also be in the Great Alaska Shootout (open with Hawaii, will then play California or Marshall on the second day) and the Panasonic Holiday Festival at Madison Square Garden. In the latter, they play Saint Joseph’s and could then play St. John’s. In CAA play, they catch a break by getting George Mason just once (but on the road). Before what is expected to be a showdown in Fairfax, they have three straight home games.
Outlook: The Pride will surely have a chip on their shoulder after being snubbed from the NCAA Tournament last season, and they have a backcourt they can ride to an NCAA bid. Stokes does a little of everything, including playing bigger than his size, while Agudio can shoot the lights out and continues to improve his game and Rivera is a steady third guard. Sophomore Greg Johnson should be the first guard off the bench.
Head coach Tom Pecora said that his forwards had a good off-season, so they should be as ready as they’ll ever be once the season starts. They’ll need it, because they are the key to this team. Davis-Sabb and Gadley are both capable, but didn’t get much playing time last season behind the solid senior duo of Adrian Uter and Aurimas Kieza. Gadley has the most potential, as he has good size and can run the floor, which is perfect for playing with the guards. Sophomore Arminas Urbitus and talented but thin freshman Greg Washington could be factors as well as each gives them some size. The Pride are a good bet to lead the conference in scoring, but repeating the third-best rebounding margin may be their most crucial statistic.
George Mason (27-8, 15-3 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Folarin Campbell (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.4 apg)
So. G Andre Smith (junior college transfer)
Sr. G Gabe Norwood (3.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.9 apg)
So. F Sammy Hernandez (2.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg)
Jr. F Will Thomas (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.1 apg)
Schedule Highlights: The Patriots have four home games in non-conference play, highlighted by Wichita State (a return from last season’s BracketBusters game), Mississippi State and another home game in BracketBusters. Notable road/neutral site games are at Creighton, against Bucknell in Washington, D.C. (BB&T Classic), at Duke and Patriot League contender Holy Cross. In CAA play, they catch a couple of breaks, getting Hofstra at home only and playing Drexel just once, though in Philadelphia. A tough stretch will be in early January, when they have road games at Old Dominion and Towson sandwiched around UNC-Wilmington at home.
Outlook: In addition to some good veteran players, the Patriots also have winning experience from last season’s great run to the Final Four. Three key starters are gone, but the cupboard is far from bare. Thomas has just begun to become the player he can be at both ends of the floor, while Campbell is one of the conference’s most versatile guards and had an excellent postseason. Junior college star Smith gives them a boost and senior Gabe Norwood is another steady and experienced guard, while Vaughan returns after redshirting last season and figures to be a good player for them as well. Hernandez plays much bigger than his size, and he’ll have additional help from junior college transfer Daryl Monroe and Jesus Urbina, the latter of whom redshirted last season.
The Patriots will be well-tested in conference play and know how to defend, and that along with the intangibles will go a long way for them. If they defend like they did last season, when they were eighth in the nation in field goal percentage defense, they should be right in the thick of the race.
Drexel (15-16, 8-10 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Dominick Mejia (15.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.1 spg)
Sr. G Bashir Mason (11.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.6 spg)
Jr. F Randy Oveneke (2.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg)
Jr. F Frank Elegar (11.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg)
Sr. C Chaz Crawford (6.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Dragons will be challenged in non-conference play, with just three home games, one of which is against MAC contender Toledo. They play Big 5 teams Penn, Saint Joseph’s, Villanova and Temple on the road, and also go to Syracuse and Vermont (return game from last season’s BracketBusters game) and will be on the road in the BracketBusters. In CAA play, they get George Mason at home only, and their toughest stretch may be in late January/early February, when they play Old Dominion and Towson at home before heading to Hofstra.
Outlook: The Dragons were agonizingly close so many times last season, but just didn’t make enough shots (they were last in the CAA in both scoring and field goal percentage) to win a number of the games they lost. Bruiser Flint’s team will defend and stay in ballgames, and now this more experienced team has to finish games and play a little better at the offensive end. Mason and Mejia form a solid backcourt, while Elegar needs to become consistent if he is to become the star he’s capable of being. Crawford is solid in the middle at the defensive end, and there are plenty of candidates coming off the bench to give the starters a rest.
Flint thinks this team is more mature after last season, and if that’s the case, they should win some of the games they lost last season and be right in the thick of the race. His team was young last season, and now that their younger players have experience, they will be ready to capably back up the veterans.
UNC-Wilmington (25-8, 15-3 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G T.J. Carter (13.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.3 spg)
Sr. G Temi Soyebo (3.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.8 apg)
Jr. F Todd Hendley (10.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg)
Sr. F Dejan Grkovic (3.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg)
Jr. C Vladimir Kuljanin (6.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Seahawks open in the NIT Season Tipoff in Nashville, where they play Belmont and could play Tennessee or Fordham. They have a good home slate in non-conference play with Colorado, East Carolina and Missouri State. Good road games include College of Charleston, Toledo and North Carolina State, and they will be on the road in the BracketBusters. In CAA play, they have a tough three-game homestand in late January with Drexel, Old Dominion and George Mason, followed by three straight road games.
Outlook: Amidst everything else that happened with the conference, it was almost easy to forget that the Seahawks were the champions last season. Now they have a new look, as new head coach Benny Moss takes over with a new staff and a new system. There are still quality holdovers, starting with the backcourt. Carter took over the conference title game after a breakout season, while Soyebo will slide right into the starting point guard spot after capably backing up John Goldsberry last season. Daniel Fountain could be poised for a nice improvement, which would add good depth to the perimeter. The frontcourt players are all skilled and unspectacular, with Hendley having the most potential and Kuljanin having a chance for a breakout season.
Moss will run a new system with this team, one that will require some depth. That means some help will be needed from their freshmen. There are still enough pieces here for them to contend for the top three, although how they adjust to the new coach is an unknown.
Towson (12-16, 8-10 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Gary Neal (26.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.8 spg)
So. G Tim Crossin (8.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.0 apg, 1.9 spg)
Sr. F Marc Pratt (4.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg)
Sr. F Winston Tubbs (4.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg)
Sr. F Dennard Abraham (12.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Tigers, who have a challenging non-conference slate overall, did well to get five home games in non-conference play, highlighted by Temple and America East contender Vermont. Notable road games include Kansas and Western Kentucky in the Las Vegas Invitational, as well as a tough test at Georgetown and a road game in the BracketBusters. A mid-January road tilt at nearby rival Loyola (Md.) won’t be an easy win. In CAA play, they catch a break by getting George Mason and UNC-Wilmington at home only, though they get Old Dominion only on the road.
Outlook: With the versatile backcourt the Tigers have, led by the star power of Neal, they are a trendy pick to make a jump in the standings from last season. Crossin could slide over to shooting guard if aggressive junior college star C.C. Williams can run the team, while sophomore Velmar Coleman is another good option and freshman Rodney Spruel has shown promise. The frontcourt has a potential star in Dennard Abraham, who clearly got better in the latter part of last season, and if they contribute enough to help the guards, they will have done their job.
The Tigers will be challenged in non-conference play, but it will help prepare them for the conference slate. If they can defend and rebound – they were last in scoring defense and had a negative rebounding margin last season – they will be more than just a sleeper pick. Kennedy has had his teams press before, and he certainly will press with this team, which could help them force more turnovers than the CAA-low 12.9 that they forced last season.
Old Dominion (24-10, 13-5 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Drew Williamson (7.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.7 spg)
Jr. G Brandon Johnson (3.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg)
Jr. G Brian Henderson (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.9 apg)
Sr. F Arnaud Dahi (11.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.0 bpg)
Sr. F Valdas Vasylius (8.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Monarchs open with four straight home games, three of which come in the season-opening Cox Communications Classic with Clemson, Monmouth and Arkansas State. Then it remains challenging: at Georgetown, at Marist, at Virginia Tech before three straight home games to close out the non-conference slate, including UAB and a tough one with Winthrop. In February, they will be in the BracketBusters. When CAA play gets rolling, they get George Mason (home) and Hofstra (road) early on in back-to-back tough games.
Outlook: The Monarchs lost a couple of key starters from last season’s team that will be tough to replace. Still, Blaine Taylor’s team has some veterans capable of leading the way on this experienced team. Dahi had off-season surgery for the second straight off-season, so it’s unknown just how good he will be initially. Vasylius needs to give them more, and they will need some contributions from freshmen off the bench. Williamson is one of the best floor leaders in the conference and an excellent defender, and Henderson improved nicely as last season went along and could break out this year. There is good depth in the backcourt with junior Brandon Johnson and freshman Marsharee Neely likely to get the most minutes.
If they get some contributions from young players, the Monarchs could be contending for a spot in the top four in the conference.
VCU (19-10, 11-7 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G B.A. Walker (11.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.1 spg)
So. G Eric Maynor (4.7 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.2 apg)
Jr. G Jamal Shuler (5.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.1 apg)
Sr. G-F Jesse Pellot-Rosa (9.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.6 spg)
Sr. F-C Eric Davis (6.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: After opening the season across the state at Longwood, the Rams will get tested in the Paradise Jam, where they first get Xavier and will play either Villanova or College of Charleston in the second game. The month of December starts with four that won’t be easy: Houston at home, at Albany and Richmond and at home against UAB, before a conference clash with Delaware. A three-game home slate in mid-January will be tough (Towson, UNC-Wilmington and Old Dominion), but will give them an opportunity to gather some momentum. Two breaks they don’t get: their only meetings with Hofstra and Drexel are on the road.
Outlook: New head coach Anthony Grant inherits a team that just might fit what he hopes to do, as it’s full of guards who can shoot the ball. Walker and Shuler are capable shooters, while Maynor played well late last season and should run the show right from the beginning this season. The frontcourt doesn’t have tremendous size or overall talent, but it should work well. Pellot-Rosa is a solid complementary player at both ends of the floor, while Davis has had a few good games but needs to be more of a consistent factor. Arizona State transfer Will Fameni figures to get his share of minutes after a good off-season, and Michael Anderson played well in the conference tournament last season.
The Rams led the CAA in three-point shooting last season and could certainly do it again this season. But they will need to improve on their rebounding after only two teams had a worse margin and they may play a small lineup often.
Northeastern (19-11, 12-6 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Baptiste Bataille
Sr. G Bobby Kelly (8.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
Sr. G Adrian Martinez (5.3 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Sr. F Bennet Davis (8.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg)
So. F Eugene Spates (junior college transfer)
Schedule Highlights: The Huskies will look like they have joined the Big East with their brutal non-conference slate, as they open with Syracuse, then take on Pittsburgh, Louisville and Connecticut later. For good measure, there are also contests at Boston College and against Massachusetts (in Pittsburgh). Their first two CAA games will be at home, but will also be nearly a month apart. In CAA play, a three-game homestand in late January might be a good chance to gather some momentum.
Outlook: The Huskies took a big hit personnel-wise between seniors and transfers from last season’s team and return just three players who have played significant minutes. That means they’ll need to get a lot from newcomers like Bataille, who figures to start right away at the point, thin freshman wing Matt Janning, and junior college transfer Spates, as well as from Bill Coen’s knowledge of the game. The Huskies will need to improve on the defensive end if they are to have a chance, as they certainly won’t lead the CAA in scoring again.
None of the main holdovers has the look of a go-to guy, but Kelly and Martinez are capable of lighting it up from long range and occasionally getting a fast break basket. Janning can light it up from long range, but he needs to get stronger. Davis has steadily improved, and they need him now to become the player he is capable of becoming as they will count on him for a lot since Spates and freshman Manny Adako look like the other key frontcourt players. Among the previously unproven holdovers, junior forward Mark Washington and sophomore wing Matt Smith are the ones they will need the most production from.
Georgia State (7-22, 3-15 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Ron Larris (junior college transfer)
So. G Leonard Mendez (3.0 ppg)
Jr. F Justin Billingslea (7.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg)
So. F Rashad Chase (6.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg)
Jr. C Deven Dickerson (6.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.6 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: A challenging non-conference slate includes six home games, one of which is in the BracketBusters. Three of the first four are at home, including the opener against College of Charleston, and they later host Florida State. Challenging road games include ACC opponents Georgia Tech and Clemson, as well as Charlotte and Iowa. When CAA play begins in earnest in January, they start off with three straight home games and then hit the road for three straight.
Outlook: The Panthers go from being guard-oriented to having just one experienced guard on the roster in Mendez, who started 11 of the last 12 games last season (not starting on Senior Night). He had a good off-season and is ready to go, so the question is how the newcomers, who head coach Michael Perry thinks have the right talent level, fill in. Larris and freshman Trae Goldston are the most likely candidates at the point. The frontcourt is more experienced and has a clearer picture, as Chase leads the way with star potential after a good freshman year and improving in the off-season. Dickerson’s health will be a question mark since he won’t practice much with the team due to recurring knee problems, but he can be a productive player inside, and Billingslea gives them another veteran presence. Lance Perique is another option on the wing and will get his share of minutes.
The Panthers will need their frontcourt to look improved, as they were last in the CAA in rebounding margin by a wide margin last season, which only added to the problem of allowing opponents to shoot over 45 percent from the field.
William & Mary (8-20, 3-15 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Adam Payton (7.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.6 spg)
Jr. G Nathan Mann (7.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Sr. F Corey Cofield (10.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg)
Jr. F Laimis Kisielius (7.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.5 apg)
So. F-C Peter Stein (4.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Tribe has a non-conference schedule that will help, as they play seven home games including two in the W&M Tip-Off Classic. Richmond is the most notable home opponent. Notable road games are at Kansas State and Holy Cross, as well as a road game in BracketBusters. CAA play doesn’t feature any long home or road stretches, but one three-game stretch in January will be a tough one: home against George Mason followed by road games against Hofstra and Old Dominion.
Outlook: There is some potential on this team, though Calvin Baker’s transfer didn’t help the talent level. But he also took a lot of shots, some of which were ill-advised and not in the flow of the offense, so the offense might flow better without him. There isn’t much concern on the wings, where Mann can shoot it well and Kisielius is a versatile forward who plays very well within the team concept, and freshman Danny Sumner should make an immediate impact at small forward and could start early on. Corey Cofield can score, but he might be slowed initially after some off-season surgery. Stein had a good off-season and gives them some size, so he appears to be the incumbent in the middle.
The biggest concern may be at the point, where the Tribe will most likely play a freshman or Payton. But they would be better off with Payton on the wing, and they had trouble with turnovers last season as only two teams turned it over more. The defensive end is also a concern after opponents shot nearly 46 percent against the Tribe last season.
James Madison (5-23, 2-16 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
So. G Joe Posey (3.0 ppg, 1.4 rpg)
Jr. G-F Terrance Carter (junior college transfer)
So. F Kyle Swanston (5.9 ppg, 2.4 rpg)
So. F Juwann James (12.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.1 apg)
Jr. C Gabriel Chami (2.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The non-conference schedule features five games and isn’t as challenging as some others in the league, which can give the team a chance to get some wins. Notable games are at Wake Forest, at Georgetown and playing in the UCF Holiday Classic. In CAA play, they have three straight home games early on, and starting at the end of that is a brutal four-game stretch: home against Drexel, at UNC-Wilmington and George Mason, and home against Old Dominion.
Outlook: Last season didn’t have many bright spots for the Dukes, but two were freshmen James and Swanston, both of whom will be keys as Dean Keener builds this program. There is a big question about the point guard spot and inside, where they lack proven size. Colby Santos could grab the point, although a couple of freshmen have a chance as well. Either way, they will be young at this key position. The wings are the only places where there aren’t many questions, as Carter can score, Swanston has potential but needs to play like it all the time and get stronger, and Posey can shoot it.
Keener thinks he has the right core to start moving this team forward. That was a problem last season, when suspensions were included with injuries in hurting the team’s already low numbers.
Delaware (9-21, 4-14 Colonial)
Projected Starters:
So. G Zaire Taylor (6.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.7 apg, 2.3 spg)
Sr. G Calvin Cannon (9.0 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.4 apg)
Jr. G-F Sam McMahon (3.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg)
Jr. F Herb Courtney (6.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg)
Sr. C Raphael Madera (4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Blue Hens have a relatively light non-conference slate that features five home games, one of which is in the BracketBusters. Notable opponents include Marist and Vermont at home, with road games at Albany and Loyola (Md.). They will also play in the La Salle Classic, where they get La Salle (host), Niagara and Holy Cross. In CAA play, the schedule does them no favor early on, as four of the first five games are on the road just like last year.
Outlook: The Blue Hens struggled mightily last season and lost their best players, notably starters Harding Nana and Rulon Washington. Left over are a hodgepodge of role players, some of whom have been beset by injuries in their career. Taylor is a good building block after a solid freshman campaign, as he can run the show and defend. Cannon may be the leading scorer, although Herb Courtney has plenty of potential he has yet to live up to. Now that Courtney is fully healthy, he may begin to play to his potential. There isn’t much in the way of inside scoring threats among the holdovers, which could hurt the perimeter players if opposing teams key on them.
New head coach Monte Ross needs time to get this program going, and he will once he starts to use his recruiting prowess to bring in talent. He knows the program won’t contend overnight, but he’s a solid young coach and the program has plenty in place – facilities, campus, academic reputation – to attract quality players as it has in the past.
Conference Outlook
While Hofstra looks like the favorites, they are by no means prohibitive ones. George Mason and Drexel are both solid contenders, especially the veteran Patriots with their winning experience and the Dragons if they start winning the close games they lost last season. It doesn’t stop there; any of the teams picked fourth through seventh could easily have a say in who comes out on top, as all are capable of playing with the favorites. The bottom five teams could really wind up in just about any order depending on a few things that may transpire during the season.
Plenty of eyes will be on the eyes of the CAA this season to see how they follow up the success of last season. There is reason to believe they can replicate it to a large degree; sending another team to the Final Four isn’t expected, but winning more games in the NCAA and NIT are certainly things that would prove that it is not a one-hit wonder.
