Conference USA 2006-07 Preview
Conference USA prognosticators will generally agree on a couple of things entering the 2006-07 season, its second since the major changeover in membership. One is that Memphis is the pick to win. The other is that Morris Almond’s return to Rice after testing the NBA Draft waters was a big win for the conference. What the latter means is unclear, aside from it meaning that the Owls may have a shot at postseason play.
Even with Memphis, the picture isn’t clear. They are the favorites, to be sure, but with the heavy personnel losses and only role players from last year’s team remaining, the question is which players will step up and become stars to lead the way. The team has a lot of youth, as they will likely start four sophomores and a freshman, but there’s no denying the talent and athleticism.
The most likely contender, the Houston Cougars, are at a different end of the spectrum. They will likely start three seniors and a junior, though one of those seniors (Lanny Smith) will miss some time after off-season surgery. Another contender, UAB, lost some star power and has a new coach to adjust to as former Indiana head coach Mike Davis takes over for Mike Anderson, who took the head coaching job at Missouri.
Davis is one of three new coaches in the conference this season, and all three enter with some notoriety. SMU welcomes former North Carolina head coach Matt Doherty after one season at Florida Atlantic, while Tony Barbee makes the jump from being Memphis’ top assistant to the head coach at C-USA rival UTEP. Barbee is also the first African-American head coach at the school that first became famous when Don Haskins won the national championship in 1966 with a team that featured five African-Americans in the starting lineup. (At that time, the school was named Texas Western.)
One other thing that is clear is that a couple of teams at the bottom are in full-fledged rebuilding mode. There isn’t much veteran talent at either Southern Miss or East Carolina, the latter of whose roster was gutted during the off-season to start over. It will be a long season in both places, but the plan isn’t about this season.
Preseason Awards
Player of the Year: Morris Almond, Rice
Top Newcomer: Dion Dowell, Houston
Top Freshman: Jeremy Mayfield, UAB
Defensive Player of the Year: Bamba Fall, SMU
Primed to Break Out: Wen Mukubu, UAB
All-Conference USA Team
Morris Almond, Sr. G, Rice
Chris Douglas-Roberts, So. G, Memphis
Robert Dozier, So. F, Memphis
Oliver Lafayette, Sr. G, Houston
Wen Mukubu, Sr. G-F, UAB
Memphis (33-4, 13-1 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Willie Kemp
So. G Chris Douglas-Roberts (8.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.5 apg)
So. G-F Antonio Anderson (7.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.5 spg)
So. F Robert Dozier (5.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.1 bpg)
So. F Joey Dorsey (6.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: It’s another loaded schedule for the Tigers, starting with the EA Sports Maui Invitational, where they begin with Oklahoma. Later, they have Tennessee (road), Mississippi (home), Arizona (road), Cincinnati (home), and Gonzaga (road) in February. No part of the C-USA schedule looks especially daunting, although a late-season stretch with home games against Rice and Houston right after the Gonzaga game could challenge them.
Outlook: The Tigers suffered heavy personnel losses, but don’t feel sorry for John Calipari. They will likely start four sophomores that all have plenty of potential, with Douglas-Roberts looking like the best of them. Anderson will be a key on the perimeter as he can play multiple positions, while Kemp will likely start at the point and share the position with junior Andre Allen. Jeremy Hunt’s reinstatement gives them another guard with experience, while wing Doneal Mack should get a chance. Dozier should get better with more minutes this year, while Dorsey is what he is and will remain a presence inside. There is no shortage of size with mammoth big men Kareem Cooper and freshman Hashim Bailey; the former has already incurred a suspension. Freshman Pierre Niles also has some size at 6’8″ and 285 pounds and should be in the mix.
The non-conference schedule will give the freshmen a fast and furious introduction to Division I, and there’s plenty of talent to keep them atop the conference.
Houston (21-10, 9-5 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Lanny Smith (12.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.7 spg)
Sr. G Oliver Lafayette (15.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.8 apg, 3.4 spg)
Jr. F Sam Anderson (4.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg)
Sr. F Jahmar Thorpe (9.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.5 spg)
So. F Lamar Roberson (5.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: Penders will challenge this team with the non-conference slate, which features road dates with Arizona and Kentucky as well as the Rainbow Classic, where they open with Charlotte and will then play either Valparaiso or a tough Creighton team. A few other road challengers: Rhode Island to open the season, Saint Louis and VCU. Their first two C-USA games are at home, with Memphis as the opener, and in February they have a three-game homestand.
Outlook: While winning the conference may be a bit much to expect, the Cougars look like the best challenger to Memphis. The senior backcourt of Smith and Lafayette may be the best in the conference, although Smith will be out at least until December recovering from surgery on the big toe in his left foot. They lead a team with five seniors and a few newcomers who should make an impact. While he is out, junior college transfers like Robert McKiver and Robert Lee will need to make an impact. Anderson is the incumbent on the wing, but he’ll be pushed by players like Marcus Malone and even other forwards who may allow Penders to move Roberson to the wing, where he is capable of playing. Roberson has plenty of talent and could break out this season, while Thorpe is solid and unspectacular. Texas transfer Dion Dowell is sure to give them a good boost once he is eligible in December.
The Cougars can score, but their efficiency could be better as they shot below 41 percent from the field last season. They’ll need to improve there and on the glass, where only UAB was out-rebounded by a wider margin, if they want any chance to compete with Memphis for the top.
UAB (24-7, 12-2 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Andre White (junior college transfer)
Sr. G Paul Delaney (8.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.2 spg)
Sr. G-F Wen Mukubu (9.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.4 apg)
So. F Lawrence Kinnard (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg)
Jr. F Frank Holmes (6.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Blazers open up in the John Thompson Foundation Challenge in Milwaukee, where they will take on Washington State, Radford and UW-Milwaukee. The non-conference slate is not a light one overall: a home-and-home with Wyoming (consecutive games four days apart), at Western Kentucky, Cincinnati, VCU and Old Dominion, and against Florida in the Orange Bowl Classic. Home highlights in the non-conference slate include Minnesota and former C-USA foes DePaul and USF. In C-USA play, their toughest stretch is in early February, when they have three straight home dates with Memphis, UTEP and Rice, followed by a road date with Houston.
Outlook: New head coach Mike Davis inherits a team that lost a couple of key players, but still has pieces in place to contend. Like the teams of his predecessor, this one has plenty of guards, led by Delaney and Mukubu, both of whom could blossom as their roles increase even more. White looks like the favorite to run the show, an area of concern as there is no experienced point guard on the roster. The frontcourt has good starters with Holmes and Kinard, the latter of whom could blossom now that they will need more from him. Freshman Jeremy Mayfield, who originally signed at Oklahoma, will get plenty of minutes, and high school classmates Howard Crawford and Curtis Nickson also bring some size.
The Blazers figure to be even better in another year, when Davis starts to bring in his own players and two potential impact transfers that sit out this season become eligible. But right now, he inherits a team that should be around the top of the conference, although another NCAA bid might be a bit much to expect.
Rice (12-16, 6-8 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Morris Almond (21.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.4 spg)
Sr. G Lorenzo Williams (10.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 6.1 apg, 1.4 spg)
Jr. F Patrick Britton (5.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg)
Jr. F Paulinas Packevicius (2.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg)
Jr. F Marius Craciun (junior college transfer)
Schedule Highlights: The Owls have scheduled for the NCAA Tournament, starting with the NIT Season Tip-Off as they take on Gonzaga. Home games with Oregon and Vanderbilt and road dates with Utah and Princeton could help raise their profile, while North Texas (home) will be a challenge. They will also play in the Shamrock Office Solutions Classic at St. Mary’s, where they open with Belmont and then play either St. Mary’s or Western Carolina. In conference play, they get Memphis on the road only.
Outlook: Many people cheered when C-USA leading scorer Almond returned for his senior season after testing the NBA Draft waters. The cheers from other teams in C-USA were probably a bit muted, though, since he tortured them for 25.1 points a night last season. He combines with underrated floor leader Williams to give them a solid backcourt that could lead this team into postseason play. There is good depth with sophomores Rodney Foster and Cory Pflieger having shown promise last season, and three freshman guards will also be in the mix. The frontcourt isn’t bad, but it could stand some improvement after the Owls were out-rebounded by more than three per night. Britton played internationally over the summer with a team of other college players, so he should be ready to make steady improvement. Other holdovers like Packevicius, senior Greg Killings and sophomores Aleks Parka and Matt Hagen need to improve more. Craciun poised to give them a boost, and he should challenge for minutes or even a starting spot right away given the questions in the frontcourt.
The Owls won’t have a problem scoring, but they won’t be a postseason candidate if they don’t improve their defense. They were last in scoring defense and only Southern Miss allowed opponents to shoot better from the floor.
UTEP (21-10, 11-3 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Kevin Henderson (7.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.7 spg)
So. G Stefon Jackson (8.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg)
Jr. F Victor Ramalho (junior college transfer)
Jr. F Tavaris Watts (junior college transfer)
Jr. C Jeremy Sampson (junior college transfer)
Schedule Highlights: The Miners start out in Syracuse at the BCA Invitational, where they will take on Penn, then possibly Syracuse in the second round. After that, the only road game is at New Mexico State in December, with Texas Tech, New Mexico and a return game with New Mexico State highlighting the home games. The Miners will also take on Jackson State and either Drake or Toledo in the State Farm Sun Bowl Tournament before Christmas. Three of the first four C-USA games are on the road, but they catch a break in having to play Memphis only once, and in El Paso.
Outlook: New head coach Tony Barbee will have quite a challenge on his hands trying to keep a this consistent postseason team this year, as the roster has a very new look to it. The top four scorers have departed, as well as one player who started 21 games, so newcomers will be relied upon for a lot. Fortunately, there is experience in the backcourt starting with steady floor leader Henderson and Jackson, who could break out now that he will be relied upon for more scoring. Off the bench, they will rely on players like junior college transfers Xavier Dawson and Marvin Kilgore, the latter of whom has Division I experience since he started his career at East Carolina, and Saint Louis transfer Darren Clarke. Sophomore forward Maurice Thomas has the only experience in the frontcourt, but junior college transfers Ramalho, Watts and Sampson all figure to get minutes right away. Freshman Franklin Jones could contribute, but his weight has steadily risen to 290 pounds and he could probably stand to lose some of that.
The Miners have some talent, and Barbee has a solid background. This year will be a challenging one to get the newcomers together and get to postseason play again, but the talent is there.
UCF (14-15, 7-7 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Mike O’Donnell (8.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.6 spg)
Sr. G-F Josh Peppers (13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.8 apg)
Fr. F Tony Davis
Jr. F-C Adam Gill (2.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg)
Jr. C Stanley Billings (junior college transfer)
Schedule Highlights: The Golden Knights won’t leave Orlando until December, when they first head to Minnesota, then open with Utah in the San Juan Shootout. They host the UCF Holiday Classic before hitting the road to close out the non-conference slate with games at Colorado and South Dakota State. In conference play, they got a small break by getting Memphis only at home.
Outlook: The Golden Knights began their tenure in C-USA with a pleasant surprise as they went 7-7 in a much tougher conference than their previous one. This year could be a little tougher after the departure of two of the top three scorers and with just two seniors on the team. They start in good shape in the backcourt with their best player in Peppers, who can shoot it, and steady floor leader O’Donnell, who had the second-best assist/turnover ratio in the conference last season. Sophomore Jermaine Taylor should get better and junior Dave Noel is the only other guard with much experience, meaning they could use a little help from newcomers like junior college transfer Chip Cartwright or freshman Taylor Young. The frontcourt doesn’t have much in the way of proven bodies, although Gill and Lavell Payne, the only other senior on the roster, both started more than 10 games last season. Billings, who stands 6’11”, and freshman Davis seem the most likely newcomers to make an impact. Fellow freshman Andre Thornton has a solid frame and should also give them some minutes inside.
It was a good start for the Golden Knights last season. Now they have to build on it and become consistently competitive as they recruit players at the C-USA level.
Tulane (12-17, 6-8 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Andrew Garcia (5.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.2 apg)
So. G Ryan Williams (4.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg)
Sr. G-F Chris Moore (9.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Jr. F Donnie Stith (6.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg)
Jr. F David Gomez (11.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Green Wave has eight home games on tap in non-conference play, including part of an in-season home-and-home with New Orleans and LSU at New Orleans Arena. They’ll hit the road to play at TCU and Richmond. In C-USA play, there aren’t any daunting road stretches, but they play both Memphis and Houston on the road without a home return.
Outlook: Last season had its share of trials and tribulations even before it started thanks to Hurricane Katrina. In light of that, and the team’s relocation to College Station until December, second-year head coach Dave Dickerson should be commended on the job he did with this team. Now they are in a position to possibly make a good move up in the standings as only one starter is gone from last season’s team. That one starter is leading scorer Quincy Davis, but there is plenty of talent to pick up the slack there with six of the top seven scorers returning. Gomez leads the way, as he has the potential to be an all-conference player, while Stith is a good role player and sophomore Daniel Puckett and senior Kory Castine will also figure into the mix. Junior Robinson Louisme has a big body with some Division I experience as well. Moore and junior Matt Wheaton have the wing in good shape, with Moore possibly set to close his career out on a good note. Garcia and Williams are serviceable guards, but neither is a long range threat and there isn’t great depth among the holdovers.
The Green Wave will defend, as only Memphis was better in field goal percentage defense last season. It’s at the offensive end, where they turned it over more than 18 times a night, that the concerns lie.
SMU (13-16, 4-10 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Dez Willingham (9.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.6 apg)
Jr. G Derrick Roberts (10.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 apg)
Sr. F Devon Pearson (10.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Sr. F-C Donatas Rackauskas (6.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg)
So. C Bamba Fall (5.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.0 bpg in 18 games)
Schedule Highlights: The non-conference slate is a good mix, starting with three games in Tallahassee, the last of which is against host Florida State. They return home for five games, including Dayton, and a trip to Oklahoma is on tap in late December. In conference play, a challenging three-game road swing starting in late January ends at Memphis.
Outlook: New head coach Matt Doherty inherits a team with most of last year’s players back, which may or may not be a good thing since they went 13-16 last season. Willingham and Roberts are a good starting point on the perimeter, with senior Brian Epps and junior John Killen also figuring in the mix. If Fall is healthy, the frontcourt should be in good shape with Pearson and Rackauskas returning; if nothing else, they won’t lack size, especially with senior Ike Ofoegbu and freshman Cameron Spencer also in the mix.
The Mustangs will have to make up for the scoring lost by Bryan Hopkins’ career ending, but if they can do that, they might make a jump in the standings and contend for an NIT bid.
Tulsa (11-17, 6-8 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Brett McDade (10.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg)
Jr. G Roderick Earls (junior college transfer)
So. F Ray Reese (6.1 ppg. 3.1 rpg, 1.2 apg)
So. F Darold Crow (9.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Sr. C Charles Ramsdell (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: 18 home games dot the Golden Hurricane’s schedule, with only three road games (North Texas, Oklahoma State and Arkansas) in non-conference play. The home slate is light, as Oral Roberts is the toughest opponent by a good margin, with Jackson State and Lamar as the next toughest opponents.
Outlook: Second-year head coach Doug Wojcik is building for the future, and that’s certainly evident this season as his team has just one senior and three juniors. The roster has an overall new look about it with three redshirts joining four true freshmen and junior college transfer Earls, who could give them a scorer on the wing. McDade looks to be better suited to playing off the ball, as he turned the ball over too much but shot it well from long range. If a freshman like Mark Hill or Joey Kieval can run the show, they might be better off. Reese will also get time on the wing. Ramsdell anchors a frontcourt that has a little more experience, as Crow also started most of last season and sophomore center Sam Mitchell started 19 games last season. It’s a unit that won’t make headlines, but with some improvement will look serviceable.
The Golden Hurricane was next-to-last in scoring last season, so they’ll need to improve there. One place where they could start is in taking better care of the ball, as they committed over 18 turnovers per game last season; no returning player had more assists than turnovers.
Marshall (12-16, 5-9 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Chris Ross (6.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.9 spg)
Jr. G Mark Dorris (5.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg)
Sr. G-F Tre Whitted (7.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg)
So. F Markel Humphrey (7.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Jr. C Jean Francois Bro Grebe (1.9 ppg in nine games)
Schedule Highlights: After two home games, Marshall heads to Alaska to open with California in the Great Alaska Shootout. More road action follows, featuring games at Ohio and an early C-USA battle at Memphis. Ohio returns the game in Huntington after Wright State, Bowling Green and Virginia Tech head there, and their final two non-conference games won’t be easy ones at George Washington and at West Virginia. In conference play, they have a chance to get some momentum near the end of January with three straight home games.
Outlook: Scoring could be difficult for the Thundering Herd this year unless a few players improve or a newcomer injects scoring into the offense, as the only two double-digit scorers from last season are gone. Humphrey gives them a player to build around after he was a C-USA All-Freshman selection last year. He’ll need help in the frontcourt from players who are either unproven or have been hit by the injury bug. Newcomers who could help there are freshmen Robbie Jackson and Tyler Wilkerson, and they may need to as Bro Grebe and sophomore Jesse Oglesby have size but played very limited minutes last season. The backcourt is in better shape, as Ross is a good floor leader flanked by Dorris, Whitted and Travis Aikens, the leading returning scorer. Sophomore Daryl Merthie could lead the team in scoring after sitting out last season under Prop 48, and junior college transfer Chris Williams could help. Don’t be surprised if Merthie starts before the season is over.
Southern Miss (10-21, 3-11 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G DeWayne Green (junior college transfer)
So. G Courtney Beasley (10.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.3 spg)
Sr. G Kyle Lamonte (4.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.2 apg)
Jr. F Demar Dotson (junior college transfer)
So. C Donatas Visockis (1.2 apg in 17 games)
Schedule Highlights: Clearly a schedule for a team in transition, the Golden Eagles won’t leave home until they take on Alabama in Tuscaloosa in mid-December. Four non-Division I teams dot the schedule, whose only other road non-conference games are at Bradley and Savannah State (part of a home-and-home this year). The home slate is highlighted by a January 2 meeting with Auburn.
Outlook: The future is the main idea in Hattiesburg after an exodus of veterans in the off-season leaves this team with a lot of youth. Lamonte is the only senior and there are just three juniors (all of whom are junior college transfers), so there isn’t a ton of Division I experience on the roster. Green should start right away at the point, and Beasley should improve on a good freshman season that saw him post better numbers once C-USA play got going. Lamonte is another experienced guard, but that unit will generally lack experience as six freshmen guards are on the roster. Dotson and fellow junior college transfer Gijo Bain should get minutes early, while Visockis is the only frontcourt player with Division I experience.
The Golden Eagles will need time before they can contend. That means this isn’t their year to contend, but it’s an important developmental season for the seven freshmen and three sophomores.
East Carolina (8-20, 2-12 C-USA)
Projected Starters:
So. G Sam Hinnant (10.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.9 apg)
Jr. G Jeremy Ingram (10.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.4 spg)
Sr. G Courtney Captain (8.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Fr. F Hillary Haley
Fr. F John Fields
Schedule Highlights: The non-conference slate won’t be easy, but then, the conference slate won’t be, either. Two early road games, Richmond and UNC Greensboro, won’t be easy, and a later road game at UNC-Wilmington figures to be a tough one as well. Home dates with USF and Winthrop, as well as road dates with North Carolina State and Wake Forest, will all combine to make December a challenging month. They have a chance early in conference play to get momentum going with three early home games in a row, but all are difficult: Rice, Tulane and Memphis.
Outlook: Fans need to get a program, as the Pirates saw eight players leave who still had some eligibility. The remaining pieces feature some talent in the backcourt, where Hinnant had a nice freshman season, Ingram can score and Captain gives them an experienced wing. Junior college transfer Darnell Jenkins will also get minutes at the point and Corey Farmer should contribute, ensuring that the perimeter will be the team’s strength. The frontcourt has an entirely new look, making it a great unknown, but it isn’t lacking in size as four freshmen are 6’8″ or taller. Haley was one of the better prospects in the nation’s capital and may be the best of the newcomers.
Conference Outlook
New season, same old result: Memphis should win the conference. They might not roll to the title like they did last season with a 13-1 mark, but they are still the favorites with all their talent. Houston and UAB are the veteran teams that could compete, while Rice is a dark horse with Morris Almond’s return. How the middle shapes up will be interesting since that could go a few ways depending on things like injuries.
The conference looks good to get at least four teams in postseason play again this time around, and it wouldn’t be a shock if a fifth made it. But for any more, some of the middle teams will have to make good steps forward.
