Ohio Valley Conference 2006-07 Preview
2005-2006 saw a changing of the guard in the Ohio Valley Conference during the regular season. Tennessee Tech took the regular season crown for the first time in four seasons, but at the conclusion of the OVC tournament, the old guard once again reigned supreme. Murray State represented the conference in the NCAA tournament after defeating Samford in the title game.
Five months later, the race for the 2007 conference is up for grabs. The defending champion Racers must break in new head coach Billy Kennedy and feature six freshmen on the roster, while Tennessee Tech lost three starters. The coaches picked the Racers to finish fourth this season.
Samford was the preseason pick to take the conference. The Bulldogs have yet to make it out of the first round of the conference tournament in their first two seasons in the conference. Tennessee State was picked at second. They’re a stranger to OVC success as well, having not qualified for the second round of the conference tournament since 1998.
Who will emerge from the conference this season is anyone’s guess. At least five teams have a legitimate shot to represent the OVC at the big dance this March.
Preseason All-OVC
G Anthony Fisher, Tennessee Tech
G Randall Gulina, Samford
F Shawn Witherspoon, Murray State
F Clarence Mathews, Tennessee State
F Shaun Williams, Morehead State
Conference MVP: Shaun Witherspoon, Murray State
Defensive player of the year: Clarence Mathews, Tennessee State
Teams (in projected order of finish)
1. Samford Bulldogs
2005-06 record: 20-7 (14-7, 2nd)
Key games: 11/10 @Florida, 11/22 @Arizona, 12/21 @Murray State, 12/29 @LSU, 2/1 vs. Tennessee State, 2/22 vs. Southeast Missouri
The Samford basketball program isn’t exactly the conference’s best-known program. But Jimmy Tillete’s side looks ready to make a run at the conference title in just their fourth season as an OVC participant.
Four starters are back from last season’s team that finished 20-11 and second in the conference before being upset in the first round of the tournament. An experienced backcourt featuring floor leader Jerry Smith and sharp-shooting Randall Gulina leads the way. Also returning are guard Joe Ross Merritt and 6-10 center Travis Peterson.
But what separates the Bulldogs from the rest of the pack is their depth. Sixth man Curtis West provides an offensive spark in the backcourt, and physically-gifted Jason Black is also back. But the Bulldogs are most excited about their four redshirt freshman. Savoy Fraine, Bryan Friday, Jim Griffin and Trey Montgomery spent last season learning Tillette’s Princeton-style offense, and they’re all ready to contribute.
With the veteran backcourt and the size down low, the Bulldogs are easily most talented team in the conference. They will also be battle tested come conference play after trips to Arizona and defending national champions Florida.
It’s been a while since things have looked so bright for the Bulldogs. But the ability is there, and they will do big things this season.
2. Murray State Racers
2005-06 record: 24-6 (17-3, 1st place)
Key games: 11/10 vs. San Diego State (Shamrock Invitational), 12/1 @Tennessee, 12/21 vs. Samford, 1/29 @ Samford, 1/25 @Tennessee Tech, 2/14 vs. Tennessee State
The Racers qualified for the NCAA tournament for the sixth time in eleven seasons last March. It’s been all downhill since then. Head coach Mick Cronin bolted for Cincinnati, leaving the Racers searching for their third head coach in five seasons. Billy Kennedy took the reigns. One of his first orders of business was the dismissal of talented forward Trey Pearson for a violation of team rules. Mike McCoy and Marqis Wright were also let go for academic reasons.
Fortunately, fifth-year senior Shaun Witherspoon is back. Pearson was supposed to be the focal point of last season’s team, but Witherspoon quickly established himself as the first option by leading the team in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, and blocks.
But after Pearson received his walking orders, it’s unclear who will emerge as the second option. It could be sophomore Tyler Holloway, who showed flashes of greatness during his freshman season. Justin Orr will play alongside Witherspoon at forward and is the second-leading-returning scorer.
The main question facing the Racers is experience. They must rely on JUCO transfer Kevin Thomas to run the point. A multitude of freshman also will get their first college minutes with Tony Easley leading the way after redshirting last season.
Lower expectations are not something that the Racers are used to, so they won’t accept anything other than a second consecutive appearance in the big dance. But it’s also been a while since the Racers have faced this many questions, even if they have faced their share before some seasons. Expect them to mount a serious challenge for the conference championship come March.
3. Tennessee State Tigers
2006 Record: 13-15 (11-9, tied-5th)
Key games: 11/19 @Western Kentucky, 11/21 @Kansas, 12/2 @Alabama, 1/1 vs. Samford, 2/10 @Tennessee Tech, 2/14 @Murray State
Things are changing at TSU. Last season’s fifth-place finish was the highest finish for the program since 1998. The coaches further raised the bar for this season by picking the Tigers to finish second to Samford in the conference this year.
Clarence Matthews is the main reason for the heightened expectations. He averaged 13.7 points and 8.5 rebounds per gane last season. The senior is the best the conference has to offer and offers the speed and strength to possibly compete at the next level. Also, look for Mississippi State transfer Jerrell Houston to have an impact at forward when he becomes eligible after the fall semester ends.
The Tigers’ chances took a huge hit in a September pick-up game when point guard Bruce Price re-injured his knee. Price had been averaging 19.3 PPG last season before hurting the knee against Ohio State in late December. He is expected to miss the entire season. But the team is holding out hope that he can make a return to the team late in the season if rehab goes well. Captain Ervin Reilly was a decent replacement for Price last season and more of a true point guard. He needs to offer more in the scoring department.
Everyone was excited about Oklahoma transfer Larry Turner last season. The 6-11, 240 pound Turner was eligible to play after the first-semester at TSU last year but didn’t have the effect coaches were hoping for. He’s big enough to be a star, but he struggled on the offensive end and also fouled out in six of the 24 games he appeared in.
Head coach Cy Alexander has done a bang-up job thus far. Having taken a perennial conference doormat to the upper-echelon of the OVC, he might start to see some offers from bigger programs this spring. Until then, he has a team filled with individual ability that will win some games. This program isn’t quite ready for the big-time quite yet, but if things bounce right they will make some noise.
4. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
2006 record: 19-12 (13-7, 3rd)
Key games: 11/26 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 11/29 vs. Bradley, 12/28 @Tennessee, 1/2 @Samford, 1/23 vs. Murray State, 2/10 vs. Tennessee State, 2/22 @Murray State
Being a Golden Eagle fan is not the easiest of tasks. TTU has won the conference regular season seven times, but haven’t won the conference tourney since 1967. Last season featured more of the same. Tech’s relatively successful third-place finish was soured by a semifinal loss to Stanford. This season the Golden Eagles are finally hoping to get over the hump, but they might one year away.
Last season’s top scorer, Anthony Fisher, is back for his junior season. Fisher is the floor leader and has a knack for coming up big at the right time. Fellow guard Belton Rivers is an offensive threat and hard to stop when he’s hitting his shot, but he needs to be more consistent after shooting just 38% last season. If Rivers can reach his potential, he and Fisher will be one of the more dangerous backcourt tandems in the conference.
Size is the main problem for Tennessee Tech. Center Rashun Bryant is the tallest returnee at 6-8 and he struggled last season. The wild card is South Alabama transfer Daniel Northern, who has the potential to be one of the best centers in the conference right away. Amadi McKenzie, Francis Kabore, and Jonathan Jones are all solid forwards. But don’t expect anything spectacular out of them.
The big men will have to mature quickly with trips to Kansas State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Ole Miss, and Tennessee on the non-conference slate. Fisher and Rivers will be able to win games based on their scoring ability alone, but without a consistent inside presence, an appearance at the big dance seems unlikely. If Northern can step in and do the job right away, they will have a fighting chance.
5. Southeast Missouri Redhawks
2006 record: 7-20 (4-16, 10th)
Key games: 11/10 @Arkansas, 12/7 @Tennessee State, 12/9 @Tennessee Tech, 2/8 vs. Morehead State, 2/24 @Jacksonville State
The 2004-2005 OVC semifinal appearance seemed like a long time ago last season. The Redhawks won just four conference games and didn’t even qualify for the conference tournament. But a wealth of returning players and several talented newcomers should get Southeast back in the conference tourney this season.
Transfers Brandon Foust and Michael Rembert are the main reason for the possible resurgence. Foust, a transfer from Oklahoma, has incredible athleticism and raw ability. He was highly recruited out of high school but struggled to get into the rotation in Norman before transferring. Rembert redshirted last season after transferring from Bradley. His strength and ability to hit open jump shots will pay dividends.
Leading scorer Roy Booker is gone at guard, but seniors David Johnson and Terrick Willoughby figure to pick up the slack. True freshman Marcus Rhodes will also get a look.
After suffering through a disastrous 2005-2006 season, fans can look forward to an exciting season. Southeast will be one of the most exciting teams in the conference with Rembert and Foust leading the way. But the overall talent level is not high enough to take home the title.
6. Jacksonville State
2006 record: 16-13 (12-8, 4th)
Key games: 12/27 @Wisconsin Green Bay (Oneida Casino Holiday Classic), 12/7 vs. Samford, 1/4 vs. Austin Peay, 2/3 vs. Murray State, 2/24 vs. Southeast Missouri
With two of the top players in the conference at their disposal, this could be a breakout season for JSU. But a long list of new faces will have to play alongside talented forwards Dorien Brown and Courtney Bradley.
As one of the conference leaders in scoring and rebounding, Bradley is among the top returning players in the entire OVC. Brown has steadily improved over his first two seasons at JSU and now looks primed for a breakout season. Bradley will be the go-to-guy, but Brown’s consistency as the second option will be the key to success. Senior Harold Crow is also a formidable scoring threat.
Other than Brown and Bradley, the Gamecocks face a plethora of questions. The backcourt was decimated due to graduation. Diminutive Sophomore Deandre Bray is the only returnee that has been truly tested. He appeared in all but one game last season, but shot just 20.5 percent from the field. Expect JSU to place their hopes squarely on the back of two JUCO transfers, Will Ginn and Erik Adams. The backcourt also features five more freshmen.
Teams will have to take JSU seriously this season. Brown and Bradley will make sure of that. But someone will have to step up in the most inexperienced backcourt in the OVC. There will be some nice victories, and a few head-scratching losses as well. Expect a finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.
7. Austin Peay
2006 record: 17-14 (11-9, tied-5th)
Key games: 11/13 @Illinois, 12/14 @Memphis, 1/4 @Jacksonville State, 1/13 vs. Southeast Missouri, 2/10 @Samford, 2/22 vs. Eastern Kentucky
It’s been a long fall for the Governors. After being an annual basketball power, Austin Peay has faltered the past two seasons finishing fifth both times. And if that wasn’t worse enough, they must replace their top two scorers from last season.
With no seniors on the roster, youth will be served for Dave Loos’ team. At guard, sophomores Landon Shipley and Kyle Duncan will play key roles. Junior Derrick Wright and Todd Babington will also see major minutes. There will be plenty of contributors, but someone must emerge as the top backcourt option.
In the front court, Drake Reed figures to be the main guy. He was the third-leading scorer on last season’s team as a freshman. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Seven-footer Tomas Janusauskas has never lived up to his potential; he only played in 18 games last season. J.P. Felder saw some minutes as a freshman, and didn’t impress. Expect coaches to throw true freshmen Duran Roberson and Ernest Field into the fire immediately.
With so many young players making up the roster, Austin Peay has a bright future. But this will not be your typical APSU side this season. They will struggle to score and will need someone to emerge as the floor leader. Until that happens, they will be a fixture in the middle of the conference at best.
8. Eastern Kentucky
2006 record: 14-16 (11-9, tied-5th)
Key games: 11/17 @Ohio State, 12/2 @Western Kentucky, 12/7 vs. Murray State, 2/1 @Morehead State, 2/22 @Austin Peay
It’s hard to believe that the Colonels are just two years removed from an NCAA tournament appearance. The outlook is somewhat bleak for this season with the top three scorers all graduating.
In the backcourt, the hope is that sophomores Harrison Brown and Mike Rose can make a smooth transition into the starting lineup. But neither figures to assume a primary scoring role. That will put the pressure on highly recruited Josh Daniel to pick up the slack from day one. Freshman point guards Adam Leonard and Ryan Dillman will also get a look.
The frontcourt’s prospects are a little more promising. Junior Darnell Dials is the leading returning scorer and figures to have a more prominent role in the offense. Julian Mascoll is a little undersized, but he is athletic enough to get by. Senior Michael Brock is also back after playing an important role off the bench last season. Junior Jamaal Douglas led the Patriot League in rebounding two seasons ago before transferring to EKU and will start in the frontcourt.
The main question for the Colonels is how they will score. If a newcomer doesn’t step up EKU will have major problems putting the ball in the basket. They will battle just to qualify for the conference tournament this March.
9. Morehead State
2006 record: 4-23 (3-17, 11th)
Key games: 11/10 @Penn State, 12/18 @ UT Martin, 1/9 @Eastern Kentucky, 1/27 vs. Eastern Illinois, 2/13 vs. Jacksonville State, 2/24 @Austin Peay
New head coach Donnie Tyndall will try to turn around a program that has finished 11th and 9th respectively over the last two seasons. He will have four returning starters to work with, but depth is a major hole.
Forward Shaun Williams can match-up with anyone in the conference. He dropped 25 points on UConn last season and is a monster down low. But despite all he brought to the table last season, the Eagles still finished dead last in the conference. He will have to raise his game even more for the Eagles to have any kind of success, which is a lot to ask. Ryan Allen failed to take any pressure off of Williams last season, which he needs to do this year.
Quentin Pryor is the leader in the backcourt, but he needs to become a better creator for his teammates. Cordaryl Ballard and Tyke Cockersham both showed flashes in their freshman seasons and should start alongside Pryor. Sophomores Tristan Rogers, Deron Brown and Stan Januska will also assume larger roles this season.
On paper MSU has a chance to be a competitive team. Four starters are back and Williams might be the best player in the conference. But no one looks ready to become a consistent scorer alongside Williams. With depth and offensive balance such an issue, MSU will struggle to qualify for the OVC tourney.
10. Eastern Illinois
2006 record: 6-21 (5-15, 9th)
Key games: 11/12 @Iowa State, 11/17 @DePaul, 12/18 vs. Eastern Kentucky, 2/1 vs. Jacksonville State, 2/10 vs. UT Martin, 2/22 @Jacksonville State
The good news is that three starters are back. The bad news is that those starters contributed to last season’s dismal 6-21 (5-15) season that placed the Panthers one spot out of the conference tournament last spring.
Guard Mike Robinson is easily the team’s best talent, but he needs to stay focused. He was the second leading scorer as just a freshman and led the team in assists, but he shot a lowly 35% from the field. Fellow guard Bobby Catchings also struggled shooting the basketball last season, but still managed to average over nine points-per-game. He needs to work on his passing after averaging more turnovers than assists last season. JUCO transfers Jon’tee Willhite and Julio Anthony also figure to start in Mike Miller’s four-guard offense.
Centers George Tandy and Jake Byrne were both steady contributors last season. With the lack of scoring options at guard, both will have to become better offensively.
With so much youth on the roster, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel for the Panthers. The light may be far away, as there aren’t enough proven weapons to be a force right now.
11. UT-Martin
2006 record: 13-15 (9-11, 8th)
Key games: 11/11 @Cincinnati, 12/2 @Southeast Missouri, 12/16 @Saint Louis, 1/18 vs. Austin Peay, 1/11 vs. Eastern Illinois, 2/10 @Eastern Illinois
The Skyhawks surprised some people last season by qualifying for the conference tournament. But with high-scoring guards Jared Newson and Jeremy Kelly both gone, similar success is unlikely.
Seniors Zerek Knight, Justin Flatt, and Bubba Tolliver will get the first chance at guard. Despite their experience, none of the trio has been asked to carry the load as they will be this season. Tolliver is the best shooter of the bunch.
Seniors Will Lewis, Cleve Woodfork, and McKale Jones will be the primary threats down low. Look for Woodfork to lead the team in scoring and rebounding.
Another overachieving season seems out of reach for the Skyhawks. With no scoring threat in sight and a lack of defensive presence, they will probably get pushed around in conference play. A finish inside of the top ten would be a success.
Conference Outlook
With the usual suspects all primed for a down year, it’s anyone’s guess who will be representing the OVC on the national stage this March. Will Samford or Tennessee State begin a new era in the OVC? Or will the Racers reclaim their throne despite a multitude of questions? This is one of the more wide-open conferences across the nation.
