Atlantic Coast Conference 2006-07 Preview
Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen, to the heart of college basketball. When we last checked in with the ACC, every team had lost in the NCAA Tournament by the end of the Sweet 16. You can take it to the bank that this season will be different.
Entering the 2006-07 campaign, the North Carolina Tar Heels are the clear favorite to win the conference and are one of a handful of national championship contenders. One of the top recruiting classes joins one of the most talented lineups from last season. That’s a winning combination, especially when you throw in the magic of coach Roy Williams.
North Carolina is one of several ACC teams sporting a wealth of talent. But most people expect the Tar Heels to have a stable full of future NBA ballers. That’s not the case with Georgia Tech and Virginia, which are more sporadic ACC heavyweights rather than perennial contenders. Georgia Tech is only three years removed from its run to the national championship game. And this year, the Yellow Jackets will remind the country that under the tutelage of coach Paul Hewitt, Atlanta is a hotbed for college basketball excellence.
Many readers may strongly disagree with the prediction that Virginia will finish third in the conference. But let’s get one thing clear right now – with 12 teams and an unbalanced schedule, the ACC joins many other conferences in which the final standings will not necessarily reflect the talent pecking order. The Cavaliers will benefit from an easier schedule than Boston College’s or Duke’s, even though the Eagles and Blue Devils are probably at least equal to Virginia in the talent category. But go look at the schedule and tell me how Duke can win more games than the Cavaliers – who get Miami, North Carolina State and Wake Forest twice – when the Blue Devils draw North Carolina, Boston College, Maryland and Georgia Tech twice.
While discussing Duke, many college basketball observers will wax nostalgic nearly every game when remembering the tremendous personal success of J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams. But by mid-season, the pundits will turn their attention to the youngsters – Josh McRoberts, Gerald Henderson and Greg Paulus. Duke will have to take its lumps this season, but the future is bright, so teams better make their move on the Blue Devils before they return to the top.
This year’s media darlings – outside Chapel Hill – will include Florida State’s Al Thornton and Boston College’s Jared Dudley, two seniors who are nearly polar opposites. Thornton is a high-flying powder keg who can ostentatiously dominate stretches of a game yet disappear in others. Dudley, in contrast, is a subtler workhorse who grinds down opponents while quietly building solid statistics. But don’t think Dudley is a bore. When the game is on the line, Dudley’s contagious passion often fuels the Eagles to hard-fought victories.
Dudley and Thornton are the type of players that North Carolina State, Wake Forest and Miami lack. Those three teams almost certainly will form the ACC’s basement. All three lost significant contributors from last season. Beguiled by uncertainty, the Wolfpack, Demon Deacons and Hurricanes will likely experiment with different lineups in search of the most potent attack and effective defense. But with so many strong teams this season, they’ll be hard pressed to crack the ACC’s top 10.
So without any further ado, here is your preseason look at the ACC.
Predicted finish
1. North Carolina
2. Georgia Tech
3. Virginia
4. Boston College
5. Duke
6. Maryland
7. Florida State
8. Virginia Tech
9. Clemson
10. Miami
11. Wake Forest
12. North Carolina State
All-ACC Team
Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
Al Thornton, Florida State
Josh McRoberts, Duke
Sean Singletary, Virginia
Jared Dudley, Boston College
10 Honorable Mentions
Vernon Hamilton, Clemson
DeMarcus Nelson, Duke
Gerald Henderson, Duke
Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech
Ekene Ibekwe, Maryland
Anthony King, Miami
Tywon Lawson, North Carolina
Reyshawn Terry, North Carolina
J.R. Reynolds, Virginia
Zabian Dowdell, Virginia Tech
ACC Player of the Year: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
North Carolina has a stacked lineup with plenty of youthful energy and depth. But Tyler Hansbrough is the type of hard-nosed fighter who will lead the Tar Heels throughout the season. Hansbrough can do everything well – collect rebounds, finish in the paint, hit midrange jumpers and sink clutch free throws. With plenty of preseason hype and the name North Carolina across the jersey, every opponent will be gunning to take down the Tar Heels, so Hansbrough must lead this team from tip-off to the final horn.
Freshman of the Year: Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech’s Thaddeus Young is one of the best swingmen to come through Atlanta ever. The Yellow Jackets will be fortunate if he stays at Georgia Tech longer than one season. Despite the team’s depth, coach Paul Hewitt will likely play Young early and often, and he promises to have a monumental impact. Young has not received the same attention that his fellow rookies at North Carolina and Duke have, but that will change once the teams start playing the games.
Defensive Player of the Year: Sean Williams, Boston College
Sean Williams blocked two shots per game last season, and he figures to be an even more dominant post defender this season. Williams will remind many ACC observers of another recently departed Williams – Duke’s Shelden Williams, who terrorized opponents in the paint for the past four years.
Coach of the Year: Paul Hewitt, Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech coach Paul Hewitt deserves praise simply for recruiting two of the best players in the country in Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton. Hewitt has a ridiculous amount of talent and depth on this roster. Once he finds the most lethal rotation, the Yellow Jackets will become one of the surprising teams in the country.
Most Improved Player: Sean Williams, Boston College
Sean Williams was mostly a defensive stopper last season. Now that Craig Smith has graduated, the Eagles need Williams to become a force on offense, too. Because Williams missed the first half of last season during a suspension, he did not practice with the team to develop a solid chemistry. Look for Williams’ scoring to jump from 3.4 points per game last season to double-digits this season.
Team Capsules
North Carolina Tar Heels
Last season: Second (23-8, 12-4)
Projected starting five:
Sophomore forward Tyler Hansbrough
Freshman forward Brandan Wright
Senior forward Reyshawn Terry
Sophomore guard Bobby Frasor
Freshman guard Tywon Lawson
Schedule highlights: The Tar Heels will open the season in the NIT Season Tip-Off with an opportunity to play Gonzaga, Indiana or Tennessee in Madison Square Garden. In addition to playing two of those three, North Carolina will host Ohio State and Kentucky and travel to Arizona. That’s a schedule befitting a championship contender, and the Tar Heels will have plenty of opportunities to prove they deserve that title.
When conference play begins, the Tar Heels can look forward to two games against Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Tar Heels face tough road games at Boston College and Maryland without an opportunity to see those squads in Chapel Hill. But the overall draw is good for a team that everyone figures will romp to the ACC title.
Outlook: Last season, North Carolina needed to replace seven of its top eight scorers. Many predicted a long, difficult season. Instead, a fresh batch of young Tar Heels led North Carolina to a second-place finish. This season, North Carolina is the odds-on favorite to win the ACC title and is a strong national championship candidate. That’s largely because the Tar Heels return six of their top seven scorers. They must replace David Noel, who finished third on the team with 12.9 points per game. Noel was the team’s stabilizing leader, adding 6.8 points and 3.5 assists per game – both good for second on the team. The only other noteworthy loss was Byron Sanders, a frontcourt role player who averaged 2.5 points and 2.4 rebounds per game.
On a team loaded with young talent, senior swingman Reyshawn Terry will become the team’s seasoned veteran leader. Terry was the conference’s most improved player last season, averaging 14.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. He is a long, athletic player who has the potential to wreak havoc on defense. He will be the cornerstone of a lineup that will likely feature four freshmen and sophomores. Coach Roy Williams has so much young talent that the starting lineup will likely evolve as players earn playing time.
In the frontcourt, sophomore Tyler Hansbrough anchors the Tar Heels. As a freshman, Hansbrough dominated his peers in the paint, finishing with 18.9 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. He established himself as the hardest working player in the conference, the kind of guy whose proverbial motor just doesn’t stop. Unlike last year, Hansbrough will have plenty of talent to join him down low. Freshmen Brandan Wright, Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson have the tools necessary to dominate. Williams will need to train them to overcome rookie mistakes, but they promise to form an athletic and explosive rotation. In addition to the newbies, North Carolina returns sophomore Mike Copeland, who played only 46 minutes last season but will likely see a bigger role, at least early in the season.
As solid as the frontcourt looks, the Tar Heels’ backcourt is even more impressive. The Tar Heels return senior Wes Miller and sophomores Danny Green, Marcus Ginyard and Bobby Frasor, all of whom saw significant playing time last season. Coming off the bench, Green averaged 7.5 points and 3.7 rebounds per game while averaging only 15 minutes per game. He provides instant energy and production at both ends of the court and could be one of the most valuable sixth men in the country. In addition to those four, Williams has recruited two of the most talented guards in the country, shooting guard Wayne Ellington and point guard Tywon Lawson. Lawson fits the mold of Raymond Felton, and Tar Heel fans will expect him to lead this team to a national championship like his predecessor did. Ellington is a scoring machine. The Tar Heels have six backcourt players who would compete for starting positions on most other teams in the country. The only question is how Williams will divide the playing time to keep everyone happy.
Prediction: First.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Last season: 11th (11-17, 4-12)
Project starting five:
Junior forward Ra’Sean Dickey
Junior forward Jeremis Smith
Freshman forward Thaddeus Young
Senior guard Mario West
Junior guard Anthony Morrow
Schedule highlights: The Yellow Jackets will first make waves in Maui when Georgia Tech plays Purdue, then either Oklahoma or Memphis in the EA Sports Maui Invitational. A run to the Maui championship would mean the Yellow Jackets likely beat UCLA or Kentucky, which would certainly garner national attention. The rest of the non-conference schedule isn’t threatening, although a Dec. 22 date with in-state rival Georgia could be interesting. A Feb. 11 win against Connecticut would boost the Yellow Jackets’ NCAA Tournament stock.
In the ACC, Georgia Tech draws two games with Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina and Wake Forest. The Duke and North Carolina set will give coach Paul Hewitt an opportunity to prove that his team belongs among the ACC’s elite. If Georgia Tech can’t win any of those games, Yellow Jackets would show that they are a year away from contending in the conference.
Outlook: Georgia Tech fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this season. The Yellow Jackets lost only Theodis Tarver to graduation. Tarver was a solid four-year role player who averaged 3.1 points and 3.0 rebounds per game in his senior year. In addition to Tarver, Georgia Tech lost sophomore guard Zam Fredrick, who transferred to South Carolina after the season. Although Fredrick was fourth on the team with 10.6 points per game, he was an error-prone point guard, committing 3.5 turnovers per game.
With Fredrick gone, coach Paul Hewitt will need to find a reliable point guard to handle what should become an explosive offense. Junior Anthony Morrow is the most talented guard in the stable, but he will be out until early November with a back injury. If Morrow misses the Yellow Jackets’ games in Maui, he would definitely be available for the team’s December games. Hewitt will be happy to welcome back Morrow, who led the team with 16.0 points per game and 78 three-pointers last season.
But Morrow isn’t the only talented guard. D’Andre Bell, Lewis Clinch, Javaris Crittenton, Paco Diaw and Mario West can hold down the backcourt. Crittenton is an elite freshman point guard who will likely remind the Ramblin’ Wreck of Jarrett Jack because he is a tough, 6-5 guard. If Crittenton doesn’t start the season at the point, he almost certainly will finish the season there.
One freshman who is almost guaranteed to start is swingman Thaddeus Young. One of the top 10 recruits entering this season, he is blessed with a world of talent and athleticism. Young does a little bit of everything, including play solid defense. Hewitt is a stickler for sound, aggressive defense, so Young’s ability to shut down opponents will give him the opportunity to immediately crack the starting lineup.
In the frontcourt, the Yellow Jackets return junior forwards Ra’Sean Dickey and Jeremis Smith, who are both poised for breakout seasons. Last year, Dickey and Smith quietly posted 13.2 points and 11.0 points per game, respectively. They also combined to grab 15.0 rebounds per game. The pair should improve on those numbers to become one of the best low post combinations in the country. Georgia Tech’s only weakness might be a lack of seasoned depth upfront. The Yellow Jackets have sophomore forward Alade Aminu coming off the bench to spell Dickey and Smith. And several youngsters could earn a spot in the rotation to bolster the depth quality as the season progresses.
Prediction: Second.
Virginia Cavaliers
Last season: Seventh (tie) (15-15, 7-9)
Projected starting five:
Junior center Tunji Soroye
Senior forward Jason Cain
Junior forward Adrian Joseph
Senior guard J.R. Reynolds
Junior guard Sean Singletary
Schedule highlights: The highlights of the Cavaliers’ non-conference schedule have a distinctive West Coast flavor, although all three games will be in Charlottesville. Virginia will open the season with a huge game against Arizona and then host Gonzaga and Stanford to start 2007. Virginia has only one true road game – at Purdue – during non-conference play, so the Cavaliers need to win two of the three big home games before starting conference play.
In the ACC, Virginia has a decent chance to make some noise thanks to two games against Maryland, Miami, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. Three of those teams could finish at the bottom of the conference, so the Cavaliers need to take advantage of the favorable schedule to make a push for a finish in the top third. In addition to those home-and-home sets, Virginia hosts Duke, Georgia Tech and Florida State. If the Cavaliers protect their house and take care of business against the weaker teams, a top finish is feasible.
Outlook: The Cavaliers enter their second season under coach Dave Leitao, and the Pete Gillen era is becoming a more distant memory. After this season, Leitao could assert himself as the face of the basketball program because Virginia is poised to make some noise in the ACC. The Cavaliers will open their new arena, the John Paul Jones Arena, against Arizona in a critical non-conference match up that could set up Virginia for a season-long run in the Top 25. The university has spent several years building the arena to make it one of the top facilities in the country. It should give the Cavaliers a better home court advantage than University Hall, in which students seemed – and often sounded – far removed from the action.
And Cavalier fans should have plenty to cheer about this season as Virginia returns all five starters, led by Sean Singletary. The junior point guard averaged 17.7 points and 4.2 assists per game last season. Those are impressive numbers to post while learning a new coach’s system. With a year of Leitao’s game plan under his belt, Singletary should put up even more impressive statistics this season. He has help in the backcourt with senior guard J.R. Reynolds, who averaged 17.0 points per game last season. If Singletary and Reynolds shoot better from the floor – neither shot better than 41 percent – the Cavaliers will boast one of the best starting backcourts in the conference. On the bench, Leitao can turn to sophomore Mamadi Diane and freshmen Will Harris and Solomon Tat. Harris and Tat were scoring machines in high school.
In the frontcourt, Virginia has a talented trio of starting forwards in senior Jason Cain, junior Adrian Joseph and sophomore Tunji Soroye. Joseph was the best scoring option last season, averaging 9.4 points per game, and Cain was the best on the boards, grabbing 7.6 rebounds per game. But Leitao needs all three players to be more productive at both ends for Virginia to reach the top of the conference. Playing alongside Singletary will help, and look for Cain and Joseph to average in double figures throughout the season. Sophomore Laurynas Mikalauskas proved last season that he is a capable sub, and freshmen Jamil Tucker and Jerome Meyinsse will join him in the rotation.
Prediction: Third.
Boston College Eagles
Last season: Third (28-8, 11-5)
Projected starting five:
Junior forward John Oates
Junior forward Sean Williams
Senior forward Jared Dudley
Senior guard Sean Marshall
Sophomore guard Tyrese Rice
Schedule highlights: As usual, coach Al Skinner’s Eagles aren’t flying far from home for much of the non-conference schedule. Boston College plays nine of its 12 non-conference games in Chestnut Hill. The highlight of those is a tilt with Michigan State. But the best game will be Dec. 23 at Kansas.
In the conference, the Eagles have a favorable schedule to finish near the top of the ACC. Boston College draws Miami, Florida State, Duke, Virginia Tech and Clemson twice. Of those, only Duke and Virginia Tech figure to compete in the conference’s upper echelon. The Eagles play Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia once at home. If they whiff against Michigan State and Kansas, the Eagles will need to win all three of those conference home games to remain in the conversation of elite teams.
Outlook: Boston College returns most of its lineup from last season’s 28-8 team. The most noteworthy departure is Craig Smith, a dominant forward for four seasons who finished off his career last season with 17.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. While Jared Dudley must step up to replace Smith as the team’s emotional leader, the Eagles will need Sean Williams to help replace Smith’s production in the post.
Williams is a special talent who is a phenomenal leaper at 6-10. That makes him a blocking machine. But his offensive skills were raw last season, partially because he missed the first nine games of the year while suspended for an incident that happened in the previous off-season. Although he practiced with members of the Houston Cougars in his hometown, he clearly was not in synch with his Eagle teammates for much of the season. This year, he has been able to work with Dudley, Sean Marshall and Tyrese Rice all summer and fall.
With Williams’ improvements and Dudley’s reliability, Boston College’s strength remains in the paint. In addition to Dudley and Williams, Boston College returns junior forward John Oates – who started every game last season – and adds junior forward Tyrelle Blair, a transfer from Loyola – Chicago. That’s the best collection of big men in the conference.
In the backcourt, the Eagles must replace graduated point guard Louis Hinnant. Electric sophomore point guard Tyrese Rice will fill Hinnant’s starting position. Rice was a sparkplug off the bench last season, specializing in three-point shooting as he led the team with 63 three-pointers. Rice needs to cut down on his turnovers to become a more effective floor general. The Eagles need Rice, Sean Marshall, Marquez Haynes and two freshmen, Daye Kaba and Tyler Roche, to hit shots and force opponents to respect Boston College’s perimeter game instead of loading up in the paint.
Prediction: Fourth.
Duke Blue Devils
Last season: First (32-4, 14-2)
Projected starting five:
Freshman center Brian Zoubek
Sophomore forward Josh McRoberts
Junior guard DeMarcus Nelson
Freshman guard Gerald Henderson
Sophomore guard Greg Paulus
Schedule highlights: Duke won’t play a true road game this season until the 19th game of the year against Georgia Tech on Jan. 10, 2007. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has his young team playing at home more often than not to open the season. The Blue Devils will almost assuredly play in the championship rounds of the CBE Classic – formerly the Guardians Classic – in Kansas City, Mo., where Duke could play Texas Tech, Stanford or Marquette. Back in Durham, the highlights are Indiana, Georgetown and George Mason.
Duke’s ACC schedule looks brutal with two games apiece against North Carolina, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech and Clemson. The Blue Devils must play rival North Carolina State in Raleigh without a return game. The Wolfpack figure to be down this year, but they will certainly be up for the challenge. If Coach K can’t get his youngsters to jell at home during the early home stand, Duke will have an unusually challenging run through the ACC.
Outlook: For Duke to remain near the top of the ACC, the Blue Devils must win with significant contributions from freshmen, just like North Carolina did a year ago after losing seven of its top eight scorers. Although a conference title seems unlikely, Duke has one of the best coaches in the game in Krzyzewski, who will help his inexperienced players learn quickly. But Blue Devil fans will still likely miss the dominance of J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams for much of the season. Those two combined to average 45.6 points per game.
In addition to losing Redick, Williams, Sean Dockery, Lee Melchionni and Eric Boateng, Duke will start the season without sophomore point guard Greg Paulus, who led the ACC with 5.2 assists per game last season. Paulus injured his left foot during the second day of practice in October and will likely be out until December. Without Paulus, Duke will let others bring the ball up the court and run the offense. Look for Krzyzewski to rely more on sophomore superstar Josh McRoberts, who handles the ball well for a big man. He may need to play away from the hoop more to get the offense in rhythm.
The good news for Duke is that – as always – Krzyzewski has recruited one of the best classes in the country, led by Gerald Henderson, Brian Zoubek, Jon Scheyer and Lance Thomas. That’s three McDonald’s All-Americans for those counting at home. Unlike in years past, these Duke freshmen will play immediately, and they must play well immediately. Henderson gives Duke an explosive swingman who is a threat from anywhere on the court. Zoubek is a 7-1 monster in the paint whose job is to replace Williams, not an enviable task.
But if Duke makes a run toward the top of the conference, junior guard DeMarcus Nelson will likely be the biggest reason. Duke’s most experienced player is the de facto team leader. He plays great defense, perfectly fitting the mold of the full-court pressuring Blue Devil guard. And Nelson is savvy on offense, knowing how to get to the rim and finish. He shot 41 percent from three-point range, which will be critical for a team looking to replace the ACC’s best-ever three-point shooter. If Nelson has one weakness, it’s free throw shooting. He hit less than 65 percent of his free throws, which will be a problem in close games this year if he does not improve.
Prediction: Fifth.
Maryland Terrapins
Last season: Sixth (19-13, 8-8)
Projected starting lineup:
Senior forward Ekene Ibekwe
Junior forward James Gist
Senior guard Mike Jones
Senior guard D.J. Strawberry
Freshman guard Eric Hayes
Schedule highlights: Like Georgia Tech and North Carolina, the highlight of the non-conference schedule is a tournament. Maryland will play in the 2K Sports College Hoops Classic – formerly the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament – that includes Michigan State, St. John’s and Texas. The Terrapins will likely play two of those three, in addition to a road game at Illinois and Notre Dame in Washington, D.C.
The Terrapins have a favorable slate in the conference to emerge in the upper third. The teams that Maryland must play twice are Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina State and Virginia. The Terps could pick up seven wins right there. And Maryland hosts North Carolina and Georgia Tech.
Outlook: Maryland fans are ready to move on from a string of two disappointing seasons in which the Terrapins failed to reach the NCAA Tournament. It might be blasphemy in College Park to suggest that Gary Williams is on the hot seat, but athletic boosters have short-term memories. And that 2002 championship is becoming a more distant memory with every season that doesn’t end in an NCAA Tournament appearance. Last season imploded when senior guard Chris McCray was ruled academically ineligible for the second half of the season. The Terps lose McCray, Nik Caner-Medley, Travis Garrison and Sterling Ledbetter from last season’s team. That’s more than 40 points per game gone.
Although the Terrapins have several major players to replace, they have plenty of talent that is ready to step in and perform. Maryland will have a veteran starting lineup with three seniors and a junior. The most talented Terp might be forward Ekene Ibekwe, who flirted with the NBA before deciding to return to College Park for his senior season. Junior James Gist will accompany him up front. Ibekwe averaged 11.1 points and 6.6 points per game last season, while Gist averaged 8.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. Despite the solid numbers, Gist and Ibekwe seemed to disappear at times last season. Williams needs the two to take over the game. Williams is as fiery a coach as they come, so if he can’t spark those two, no one can. Senior Will Bowers, sophomore Dave Neal, and freshmen Jerome Burney and Landon Milbourne provide plenty of depth up front despite a lack of experience among the latter three.
Maryland has potent weapons in the backcourt once again, led by senior Mike Jones. Jones averaged 10.5 points per game last season and led the team in three-point shooting with a 41.5 shooting percentage. Running mate D.J. Strawberry gives the Terrapins one of the best defensive guards in the conference. Strawberry swiped 58 steals last season and will be a critical part of Maryland’s defensive pressure. The arrival of freshmen guards Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes will relieve Strawberry of the point guard duties, allowing him to return to his more natural off-guard spot. Hayes figures to be the critical part of the backcourt. He is a 6-3 point guard with the ball handling skills necessary to make an instant impact. Senior point guard Parrish Brown will come off the bench to give Hayes a break when necessary.
Like past years, the talent is there on Maryland’s roster to finish in the top three. But will the talent play to their potential? Maryland might not reach the top of the standings, but the Terrapins will end the NCAA Tournament drought come March.
Prediction: Sixth.
Florida State Seminoles
Last season: Fifth (20-10, 9-7)
Projected starting five:
Senior forward Al Thornton
Sophomore forward Casaan Breeden
Junior guard Jason Rich
Junior guard Isaiah Swann
Sophomore guard Toney Douglas
Schedule highlights: Last season, Seminole fans cried foul when the selection committee left Florida State out of the NCAA Tournament. One knock was the Seminoles’ weak non-conference schedule. Well, here we go again. Florida State’s tournament aspirations will hinge on a three-game, 10-day stretch in which the Seminoles play at Pittsburgh, at Wisconsin and vs. Florida. The rest of the non-conference slate is forgettable, so Florida State must win at least one of those games.
In conference play, Florida State will play Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland and Miami twice. The Seminoles play Duke and North Carolina on the road with no return game. The ACC schedule will give Florida State a chance to earn a spot in the upper echelon, which still might not be enough to reach the NCAA Tournament.
Outlook: Florida State made noise last season with a victory against Duke in early March as the Seminoles won four of their final five regular-season games. But that push didn’t overcome the lackluster non-conference schedule. So seniors Todd Galloway, Andrew Wilson and Diego Romero graduated without an NCAA Tournament appearance. In addition to those three, Florida State bid adieu to junior forward Alexander Johnson and his 13.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game when he left the school for the NBA Draft. While mentioning the departed Seminoles, now is a good time to add someone who never even played for Florida State. High school recruit Jon Kreft was Florida State’s blue-chip recruit for this season. But he never made it to Tallahassee because the school rescinded his scholarship after he was arrested for possession of drugs and drug paraphernalia.
Despite those losses, Florida State returns a talented roster, led by senior forward Al Thornton, who is a preseason All-ACC player. Thornton led the team with 16.1 points per game last season. And he’s a fantastic rebounder, grabbing 6.9 rebounds per game from the small forward spot. Jason Rich and Isaiah Swann join Thornton from last season’s starting lineup. The backcourt duo averaged 18.4 points per game and figure to boost those numbers this season. Coach Leonard Hamilton has more depth at guard with senior Jerel Allen, junior Ralph Mims, sophomore Toney Douglas, and freshmen Aaron Holmes and Josue Soto. Douglas is an Auburn transfer who was one of the top 15 freshmen in the country two years ago. In sum, Florida State has easily the most athletic and arguably the best backcourt in the ACC.
With such a strong backcourt, critics can only point to the frontcourt to find a weakness. But how weak it is. Sophomore forwards Casaan Breeden and Uche Echefu will battle for a starting spot. The two combined to score only 5.1 points per game. Neither played more than 7.4 minutes per game, so Florida State will need to cover up that glaring weakness down low. If Breeden or Echefu can develop into a gritty rebounding machine and defensive plug, Florida State will be alright in the post. Otherwise, the Seminoles will need their guards to force turnovers to compensate for the lack of interior fortitude.
Prediction: Seventh.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Last season: 10th (14-16, 4-12)
Projected starting five:
Senior forward Coleman Collins
Junior forward Deron Washington
Senior guard Markus Sailes
Senior guard Jamon Gordon
Senior guard Zabian Dowdell
Schedule highlights: Virginia Tech will go to Disney World to start the season in the Old Spice Classic, which will likely include a date with West Virginia and possibly a game against Arkansas, Southern Illinois or Minnesota. In addition to that respectable field, the Hokies will play Iowa, George Washington, Old Dominion and Seton Hall. Most of those teams are strong but not elite, so Virginia Tech will need to win the lion’s share to make the NCAA Tournament selection committee notice.
Virginia Tech gets Boston College, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Virginia twice. That’s a good mix of strong and weak conference opponents for the Hokies to pick up some easy wins while also getting a chance to contend with the big dogs. Road games at Duke and Georgia Tech will be tough, and Virginia Tech won’t see those two in Blacksburg this season.
Outlook: Virginia Tech’s promising season was derailed last year by a mix of injuries, illnesses and family distractions. In the end, the Hokies, a popular pick to finish in the top half of the standings, ended near the bottom in 10th place. Give the team a mulligan, and let’s try this again. The Hokies return all five starters from last season, and they are the only team in the conference to start four seniors. Coach Seth Greenberg has plenty of experience on this roster, so he just needs to hope that everyone stays healthy long enough to make a splash in the ACC.
Virginia Tech’s recipe for success is a combination of hard-nosed defense, pressure on the ball and controlled offense. No one will confuse the Hokies with the athletic superstars of North Carolina, Florida State or Georgia Tech, but Virginia Tech has one of the hardest working rosters in the country. Last season, the Hokies finished third in steals and first in protecting the ball. The backcourt duo of Jamon Gordon and Zabian Dowdell is one of the best defensive pairs in the conference. In addition, those two fuel the offense. Dowdell led the team with 15.3 points per game, and Gordon added 11.4 points per game. Depth is a concern for Virginia Tech as four out of the five starters averaged at least 31 minutes per game last season. This year doesn’t look like it will be too different. Senior Markus Sailes will join Dowdell and Gordon in the starting lineup, leaving no true guards on the bench who figure to make an impact this season.
The Hokies are in better shape in the frontcourt, which senior Coleman Collins will lead. Collins was good for 14.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game last season. Junior swingman Deron Washington is one of the Hokies’ most athletic players. At 6-7, Washington has a long wingspan and plays with the toughness to match up with bigger players. On the bench, Greenberg can use 7-footer Robert Krabbendam, senior Chris Tucker, sophomores A.D. Vassallo and Cheick Diakite, and freshman Lewis Witcher. That’s a formidable rotation up front, and Greenberg will likely use Vassallo to spell Sailes and go with a bigger lineup. With a solid frontcourt and talented starting guards, Virginia Tech will strive to control the pace of games and win in the closing minutes. But the lack of athleticism and depth in the backcourt will wear down the Hokies in addition to their opponents.
Prediction: Eighth.
Clemson Tigers
Last season: Seventh (tie) (19-13, 7-9)
Projected starting five:
Junior forward James Mays
Junior forward Sam Perry
Sophomore guard K.C. Rivers
Junior guard Cliff Hammonds
Senior guard Vernon Hamilton
Schedule highlights: Clemson’s non-conference schedule does not feature a lot of big names. The highlights are road games at South Carolina and Minnesota and home dates with Mississippi State and Georgia. Anything less than a clean sweep of those four will not make Clemson noticeable on the national radar until conference play.
The Tigers’ ACC schedule will be tough as Clemson must play Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Maryland twice. The only good news for the Tigers is that they don’t visit Chapel Hill this season, so they can’t lose a 53rd consecutive road game to the Tar Heels. That would set an NCAA record currently held by Brown for its futility at Princeton.
Outlook: Clemson loses its two leading scorers in Shawan Robinson and Akin Akingbala. In addition, Akingbala led the team in rebounding, and Robinson hit the most three-pointers last season. But coach Oliver Purnell should not worry too much about those losses because Clemson played a nine-man rotation last season, and all nine players averaged at least 12 minutes per game. No one averaged more than 12.3 points per game, but seven players averaged at least 6.3 points per game.
Clemson’s backcourt appears strong again this season, with senior point guard Vernon Hamilton leading the charge. Hamilton averaged 12.0 points per game last season and led the team in steals with nearly three per game. The Tigers led the conference in steals last season, and the team will use its talented guards to pressure opponents again this season. Purnell will also rely on Cliff Hammonds and K.C. Rivers to put up big numbers and lead this team. Hammonds and Rivers averaged a little more than 17 points per game combined, but they need to improve their shooting touch to make Clemson a contender in the conference. Rivers shot less than 38 percent from the field, while Hammonds was a shade better than 40 percent. Clemson does not have much depth at guard, but several players can play multiple positions for Purnell.
In the frontcourt, Clemson lacks bulk and size, which will create problems against some teams. But the Tigers had the same issue last season and responded by jacking up nearly 700 three-point attempts, second in the conference to North Carolina State and the Wolfpack’s three-point happy version of the Princeton offense. For Clemson, junior forwards James Mays and Sam Perry will get the most minutes. Mays had a strong start to last season with 9.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game before the school declared him academically ineligible for the second semester. With Mays back on the court, Clemson will be able to work the ball inside. The Tigers also return sophomore forward Raymond Sykes, a long, athletic forward who needs to make a mark on defense to solidify his spot in Purnell’s rotation.
Purnell recruited three post players, and he needs at least one of them to earn significant playing time. Trevor Booker, Karolis Petrukonis and A.J. Tyler will have to learn on the job, which means Clemson will be vulnerable to teams like Boston College and North Carolina who have a lot of talented big men.
Prediction: Ninth.
Miami Hurricanes
Last season: Seventh (tie) (18-16, 7-9)
Projected starting five:
Senior forward Anthony King
Junior forward Raymond Hicks
Sophomore forward Jimmy Graham
Sophomore guard Denis Clemente
Senior guard Anthony Harris
Schedule highlights: Based on team strength, the highlight of the non-conference schedule is a date with Louisville in Kentucky. But all eyes will be on the Hurricanes Nov. 11 when the Hurricanes open the season against Florida International. The two schools met Oct. 14 on the football field, and a massive brawl broke out after bad blood boiled over. More than a dozen players were ejected and later suspended by their teams. So less than a month later, the two schools meet again, this time on the hardwood. Look for the officials to call an excessively tight game.
In conference play, Miami plays two games against Boston College, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. That seems favorable for a relatively inexperienced squad but promises to be harder than it looks. The Hurricanes host Duke, Georgia Tech and North Carolina State without playing return games.
Outlook: Last season, Miami had one of the most impressive backcourt combinations in Robert Hite and Guillermo Diaz, but the Hurricanes couldn’t surge into the top half of the conference standings. Hite has graduated, and Diaz moved on to the NBA. This season, Miami must find a new identity without the 33.6 points per game that Diaz and Hite provided. Miami also lost an experienced post player in Gary Hamilton.
The rebuilding project will start in the backcourt. Senior guard Anthony Harris is a solid point guard, but he doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well and has a tendency to turn it over. The Hurricanes also have sophomores Denis Clemente and Jack McClinton, a transfer from Siena who averaged 13.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. But none of those guards are taller than 6-2, so coach Frank Haith would create a match up nightmare for his team if he plays all three at once. One of Haith’s better recruits, shooting guard James Dews, is only 6-3.
Despite the lack of height in the backcourt, it is the team’s strength because the frontcourt players aren’t exactly scoring machines. Junior Raymond Hicks and sophomore Jimmy Graham have solid experience after each averaged at least 10 minutes per game last season. But they combined to average only 6.5 points per game. On defense, the Hurricanes have one of the best defensive stoppers in the conference with senior shot blocker extraordinaire Anthony King. Duke’s Shelden Williams overshadowed King last season, despite blocking 65 shots. He will likely be even more dominating this season as teams will challenge Hicks and Graham in the post. King could be one of the few bright spots for a Miami team that will struggle for much of the season.
Prediction: Tenth.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Last season: 12th (17-17, 3-13)
Projected starting five:
Senior center Kyle Visser
Sophomore forward Kevin Swinton
Sophomore forward Cameron Stanley
Senior forward Michael Drum
Sophomore guard Harvey Hale
Schedule highlights: Finding an elite match up on the Demon Deacons’ non-conference slate is difficult. Is the toughest opponent Georgia? Air Force? Bucknell might be the most interesting game, especially because coach Skip Prosser is taking a young, inexperienced group on the road to Lewisburg, Pa. Give Prosser credit for accepting a tough road game against an accomplished mid-major foe, even though a loss would only bring derision from the critics.
In addition to perennial rivals Georgia Tech and North Carolina State, Wake Forest will play Miami, North Carolina and Virginia twice in conference play. The Demon Deacons will travel to Duke, Florida State and Virginia Tech without seeing them in Winston-Salem.
Outlook: Despite having two of the ACC’s most talented players in Eric Williams and Justin Gray, Wake Forest had a miserable season last year because they could not replace Chris Paul at point guard. The Demon Deacons were a turnover factory in Winston-Salem, which doomed the season. Despite the team’s struggles, Gray averaged 18.2 points per game, and Williams added 16.3 points per game. This season, Wake Forest must solve its point guard concerns and replace Gray and Williams, not to mention Trent Strickland and Chris Ellis. In sum, more than 70 percent of the scoring has graduated from last season’s last place team.
Although the situation looks dire, Wake Forest returns some formidable talent in the frontcourt. Senior Kyle Visser has the skills necessary to be a top big man for the Demon Deacons, but he has played infuriatingly inconsistently throughout his career. Last season, he averaged 5.0 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. He must improve his offensive game this year. Sophomores Kevin Swinton and Cameron Stanley will also begin the season as starters, although they combined for only 5.4 points per game. If those three do not jell quickly, coach Skip Prosser will likely work freshman Jamie Skeen into the starting lineup.
Prosser’s backcourt has even more question marks. Harvey Hale and Shamaine Dukes faced tremendous pressure in replacing Paul last season, and they struggled. Both players had more turnovers than assists. Prosser found the situation so intolerable that he eventually settled on walk-on Michael Drum, whose best position is forward, to take most of the ball handling duties. Hale and Dukes have had all summer to improve their skills. They also need to improve their shooting because both were terrible last season. They shot well less than 40 percent from the field and less than 30 percent from three-point range. Despite his struggles, Hale is the leading returning scorer after averaging 5.6 points per game. If Hale and Dukes struggle again this season, Prosser has freshmen Anthony Gurley, Ishmael Smith and L.D. Williams ready to try to steal their spots in the lineup.
Prediction: Eleventh.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Last season: Fourth (22-10, 10-6)
Projected starting five:
Sophomore forward Ben McCauley
Junior forward Gavin Grant
Freshman forward Brandon Costner
Sophomore guard Courtney Fells
Senior guard Engin Atsur
Schedule highlights: Despite entering a rebuilding season, the Wolfpack face a daunting non-conference schedule that includes road games at West Virginia and Cincinnati and home dates with Michigan and Alabama. Granted, the rest of the non-conference games are against lesser foes in Raleigh, but North Carolina State will need to win two or three of the tough games to earn any respect entering conference play.
The Wolfpack’s ACC schedule includes two games against Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. North Carolina State will definitely wish that one of their designated rivals wasn’t the Tar Heels. But the Wolfpack do get to play Duke in Raleigh without returning the favor in Durham.
Outlook: North Carolina State is the only team in the conference with a new coach this season after Herb Sendek skipped town for Arizona State. Wolfpack alumni and fans were often critical of Sendek, even though he made the team a perennial NCAA Tournament contestant. North Carolina State has not fared well against rivals Duke and North Carolina in a long time. New coach Sidney Lowe steps into his first collegiate coaching gig after most recently working as an assistant coach for the Detroit Pistons. Lowe was a critical member of the Wolfpack’s 1983 championship team, so alumni, boosters and fans hope that his winning pedigree at the college and professional levels will lead North Carolina State back to a title.
But it won’t happen this season. North Carolina State lost four of five starters last season and does not have a talented or deep recruiting class to step forward. Cameron Bennerman, Ilian Evtimov and Tony Bethel graduated after last season. Cedric Simmons, who averaged 11.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, bolted Raleigh for the NBA. And recently, the Wolfpack learned that senior Andrew Brackman will forgo this season to focus on his budding baseball career. In sum, that’s more than 70 percent of the team’s scoring that won’t be back.
Much of the pressure to replace that production will fall on senior guard Engin Atsur, who averaged 10.8 points and 3.5 assists per game. Atsur doesn’t have much help in the backcourt beyond sophomore Courtney Fells, who averaged only 2.0 points per game last season. Fells is a talented player who could be a candidate for the conference’s most improved player simply because someone has to score for the Wolfpack. For North Carolina State to have any success this season, Atsur needs to focus on running the offense smoothly and let players like Fells, Gavin Grant and Brandon Costner carry the bulk of the scoring load.
The frontcourt has even less to work with. Lowe will need to make do with Grant, Costner and Ben McCauley even though they are better suited for Sendek’s version of the Princeton offense than for hard-nosed post play. Freshman Bartosz Lewandowski is a raw talent, but at 7-3, Lowe might be forced to give him significant playing time. Collectively, the Wolfpack’s returning forwards averaged 13.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game last season. Those numbers can only go up, but they won’t improve enough to get North Carolina State out of the ACC’s basement.
Prediction: Twelfth.
Conference summary
Another wild and crazy college basketball seasons awaits the ACC’s 12. The bottom three look set, and North Carolina is a massive favorite to win the conference championship. But everything in between is up for grabs, and some coaches may need to move their teams north in the standings to avoid the hot seat.
It’s time for the final prediction of this column. Who makes the NCAA Tournament? Look for North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke and Maryland to go dancing. The bubbles of Florida State and Virginia Tech will burst on Selection Sunday, and the Seminoles and Hokies will be two of the favorites to win the NIT.
