Missouri Valley Conference 2006-07 Preview
by Neal Heston
As if the upper half of the Missouri Valley Conference weren’t crowded enough. This season, two more teams, the Drake Bulldogs and Evansville Aces, will compete with the perennial contenders. Both squads return a large part of their talented 2005-06 rosters, which will make for an even more competitive MVC this season.
Let’s begin with Drake, which returns most of its starting cast. Junior forward Klayton Korver makes his return after sitting out last season with a knee injury. Joining Korver will be junior forward Ajay Calvin, senior guard Al Stewart, junior guard Chris Bryant and sophomore forward Jonathan Cox. Those four combined for nearly 35 points and 15 rebounds per game last season. In addition to the starters, the Bulldogs’ bench scored 21 points and grabbed 13 rebounds per game. The bench has solid experience, led by senior guard Nick Grant and senior center Aliou Keita. This team lost eight games by a combined 19 points last season, so the Bulldogs’ 12-19 record was misleading. Drake is capable of posting a 20-win season and punching a long-awaited ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Following closely behind the Bulldogs will be Evansville, which returns its whole starting lineup. A whopping 53 points and 21 rebounds per game will come back to Evansville this season. The Purple Aces finished the last campaign on a strong note with three wins in four games and will be a force in the MVC. Look for a postseason berth.
Drake and Evansville will join the other “Fab Five” that seem to clutter the top of the MVC year-in, year-out. Creighton will be the favorite, as Nate Funk returns from injury along with four other starters. Wichita State will bring back its starting cast from last March’s Sweet 16 team, and Southern Illinois also welcomes back all its starters from last season’s conference championship squad. Missouri State will have its eyes on an NCAA berth again because seven of its top nine scorers are back, and first-year Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobson will have his squad near the top again with the Panthers’ inside dominance of Grant Stout and Eric Coleman and an exceptional recruiting class.
Indiana State, Bradley and Illinois State don’t look strong enough to punch postseason berths, but none of those squads will be doormats. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see eight or nine Valley squads finish with overall records better than .500.
Here is my shot at calling this unpredictable conference.
Hoopville’s Missouri Valley Predictions
1. Creighton Bluejays
2. Wichita State Shockers
3. Southern Illinois Salukis
4. Missouri State Bears
5. Northern Iowa Panthers
6. Drake Bulldogs
7. Evansville Aces
8. Indiana State Sycamores
9. Bradley Braves
10. Illinois State Redbirds
Preseason Awards
1st Team All-MVC
Nate Funk, Creighton
Jamaal Tatum, Southern Illinois
Grant Stout, Northern Iowa
Blake Ahearn, Missouri State
Matt Webster, Evansville
Player of the Year: Nate Funk, Creighton
Coach of the Year: Dana Altman, Creighton
The top 10 MVC games
1. (Tie) Jan. 20: Creighton at Southern Illinois and Feb. 10: Southern Illinois at Creighton: Anyone who has watched the Missouri Valley Conference the last several years doesn’t need to be told why these two games are at No. 1, especially given the circumstances this season.
2. Feb. 24: Creighton at Wichita State: The regular season crown could come down to this finale.
3. Feb. 13: Creighton at Northern Iowa: The Bluejays have narrowly escaped Cedar Falls with upsets in their last two trips.
4. Jan. 30: Northern Iowa at Wichita State: Northern Iowa easily took care of the Shockers last season and stunned Wichita State in Charles Koch Arena in 2005 after Ben Jacobson sunk a late three-pointer, pretty much ending any hopes of a Wichita State NCAA Tournament bid. This game should come down to the final minutes again, with the Shockers having the right ingredients this time.
5. Jan. 1: Southern Illinois at Wichita State: Wichita State won’t have much opportunity to celebrate the new year. Two days before this contest, the Shockers travel to Northern Iowa.
6. Dec. 30: Creighton at Missouri State: Expect a game more similar to the 60-54 Missouri State win late last season, not the 78-56 drubbing Creighton handed the Bears last December.
7. Jan. 9: Creighton at Drake: This could be a major roadblock for the preseason favorites.
8. Jan. 15: Southern Illinois at Drake: Same story as No. 7. Drake will knock down quite a few of the big boys in Des Moines.
9. Jan. 3: Northern Iowa at Evansville: This will be the Aces’ first opportunity to gain respect in the conference race and show that they are for real this winter.
10. Dec. 28: Evansville at Drake: The two squads are expected to make surges this season. They must first battle each other early in the conference race, though.
Team Capsules
Creighton Bluejays (2005-06: 20-10, 12-6; NIT)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 18 at Nebraska
Nov. 25 vs. George Mason
The Creighton Bluejays are a slight favorite to win the conference this season. Only one starter, Johnny Mathies, graduated after last season, and he will be replaced by Nate Funk, who sat out most of the 2005-06 season because of an injury, and the NCAA granted him a medical red shirt. As a result, Creighton is poised for yet another MVC crown and a trip to the Big Dance. Funk, who posted 17 points per game before his injury, will be joined by Anthony Tolliver, Nick Porter, Dane Watts and Josh Dotzler. Junior guards Pierce Hibma and Brice Nengsu will also provide quality minutes off the bench.
Three teams from the Valley have the talent to go deep into the NCAA Tournament, and Creighton is one of them. Barring any significant injuries, the Bluejays have the depth to win two or three NCAA Tournament games next March.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: First.
NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16.
Wichita State Shockers (2005-06: 26-9, 14-4; lost in the Sweet 16 to No. 11 George Mason)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 18 at George Mason
Nov. 25 at LSU
Dec. 2 at Syracuse
Most of the starting cast returns from last season’s defending MVC champions, who played their way to the Sweet 16 in March. And why aren’t they the favorite to repeat as champs? Wichita State will be as strong as last year and could repeat March’s surprising NCAA Tournament run, but Creighton – and maybe even Southern Illinois – are strong enough to edge the defending champs.
Three of the four players who posted double-digit scoring averages return, including Sean Ogirri , Kyle Wilson and P.J. Couisnard. Paul Miller graduated, taking his 13 points per game with him. Matt Brauer and Karon Bradley should round out the starting cast.
The Shockers will be well-tested immediately, as they face half of the 2006 Final Four cast – at George Mason Nov. 18 and at LSU Nov. 25 – and will head to Syracuse Dec. 2. National respect will be on the line early in the season.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Second.
NCAA Tournament: Second-round loss.
Southern Illinois Salukis (2005-06: 22-11, 12-6; lost in the first round of NCAA Tournament to No. 6 West Virginia)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 19 vs. Murray State
Dec. 9 at Western Kentucky
How serious is Southern Illinois about playing well into March 2007? Senior Jamaal Tatum turned down an internship opportunity with one of the most storied NBA franchises so he could work out with his teammates this past summer. Tatum had a chance to work for the Boston Celtics.
The unselfish move by the senior shows how high expectations will be in Carbondale, Ill., this winter, as the Salukis are yet another Valley squad returning all of its starting lineup. That includes three double-digit scorers and last season’s leaders in points, rebounds and assists. A first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament was a letdown after winning the MVC Tournament just to get there. But Southern Illinois has the depth to get back and go deep this season. A strong defense could also give the regular-season crown back to Southern Illinois after losing it last season.
Southern Illinois struggled through its non-conference slate last winter, but that will not be the case in 2006-07. Tatum, fellow senior guard Tony Young, junior forwards Matt Shaw and Randal Falker, and sophomore guard Bryan Mullins will instill fear into opposing lineups. Those five averaged 51.2 points per game – pretty nice for a team that surrendered a mere 56.5 points per game last season. The pieces are there to contend for a third MVC title in four seasons.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Third.
NCAA Tournament: Elite Eight.
Missouri State Bears (2005-06: 22-9, 12-6; NIT)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 24 vs. Wisconsin
Dec. 6 vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee
It’s obvious now that if the Bears had won their MVC Tournament quarterfinal game against Northern Iowa in March, they would have punched a long-awaited ticket to the Big Dance. For the past three seasons, hope on a postseason bid has hinged on the MVC Tournament. Three years ago, Missouri State lost the tournament championship and was not invited to any postseason tournament; in 2005, Creighton put the Bears down in the tournament championship again, sending the Bears to the NIT; and last season’s early exit doomed the Bears.
If the Valley’s fourth-worst scoring defense improves even slightly this winter, Missouri State will have its NCAA Tournament berth wrapped up without needing to rely on a strong conference tournament performance. The Bears return seven of the top nine players who logged the most minutes last season, including sharp-shooter Blake Ahearn and his 16.2 points per game, Nathan Bilyeu, Tyler Chaney, Dale Lamberth, Sky Frasier and Drew Richards.
The depth returns from an offense that scored almost 75 points per game last year, and as a result, Missouri State will get that severely overweight monkey off its back.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Fourth.
NCAA Tournament: First-round loss.
Northern Iowa Panthers (2005-06: 23-10, 11-7; lost in the first round of NCAA Tournament to No. 7 Georgetown)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 14 at Washington
Nov. 29 vs. Iowa State (Greg McDermott returns)
Dec. 2 at Bucknell
Dec. 5 at Iowa
For the past four years, Northern Iowa turned to the impressive play of Ben Jacobson on the court. Now the Panthers will turn to a Ben Jacobson on the sideline, no relation. First-year coach Ben Jacobson received his promotion after Greg McDermott departed for the Iowa State job in March. Panther fans can expect little to change in the quality of Northern Iowa basketball.
During his first press conference in March, Jacobson said Northern Iowa will continue to move forward from where McDermott left off, not rebuild. And people believed McDermott’s right hand man. That includes the former coach’s recruits, who chose to honor their commitments after the new coach was announced, even 7-1 giant Jordan Eglseder.
The Panthers have most of the components to continue its school-record run toward a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament berth. Senior forward Grant Stout and junior center Eric Coleman should yet again cause headaches in the post. However, for once, the guards will be a concern. Brooks McKowen had the highest scoring average last season at 5.2 points per game, although his presence on the court last season saved the Panthers in a few games. Other holes could possibly be filled by sophomore Travis Brown, who averaged 3.5 points in just nine minutes per game, and juniors Adam Viet and Jared Josten. The bench won’t have much experience, but that will improve quickly as the season progresses.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Fifth.
NIT
Drake Bulldogs (2005-06: 12-19, 5-13)
Big non-conference matches:
Dec. 3 at Iowa State
Dec. 16 vs. Iowa
Last season was one of those in which Drake could sing a pretty good rendition of the song “Heartbreaker.” Just take a look at some of the losses: 87-84 to Boston College, 78-72 in overtime to Montana, 47-46 to Southern Illinois, 51-49 to Northern Iowa, 69-68 to Evansville, 58-56 in overtime to Illinois State, 60-58 to Wichita State, 70-67 to UC-Irvine and oh yes, even just a five-point defeat at intrastate rival Iowa. Six of those losses were to NCAA Tournament teams. Drake returns four starters and add three-point threat Klayton Korver, so Drake could finally secure a postseason berth. Iowa and Iowa State will have another intrastate MVC rival to worry about on the schedule.
Chaun Brooks is the biggest loss for the Bulldogs, who otherwise return 56 points and 28 rebounds per game – not including Korver – with Ajay Calvin, Al Stewart, Chris Bryant and Jonathan Cox. That quintet will likely form the starting lineup. Aliou Keita, Nick Grant and Brent Heemskerk will provide quality minutes off the bench.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Sixth.
NIT
Evansville Purple Aces (2005-06: 10-19, 5-13)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 17 vs. Miami (Fla.)
Dec. 3 at Missouri
Three starters return who averaged double-figures in points last season, and a fourth returnee scored 9.6 points per game. The bench will have just as much experience. Needless to say, the Purple Aces will be good, as good as the Valley has seen a team from Evansville since the 1999 NCAA Tournament Aces. If the cards fall right, Evansville’s fortune may feature some dancing next March.
Senior forward Matt Webster is the top returning starter, averaging14.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Jason Holsinger (12.6 PPG), Kyle Anslinger (10 PPG), Bradley Strickland (9.6 PPG) and Shy Ely (6.6 PPG) round out the starting cast. This is a senior-dominated team, with three in the starting lineup and two key bench contributors, so the time to win is now. Five conference victories or less has been the norm for the Aces during the past several seasons, but anything less than seven will be a huge disappointment for this veteran cast.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Seventh.
NIT
Indiana State Sycamores (2005-06: 13-16, 4-14)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 17 at Indiana
Dec. 28 vs. Purdue
Last season, Indiana State got a taste of what the post-David Moss era would look like. The Sycamores began last winter with an amazing eight consecutive victories, including a stunner against then-No. 16 Indiana. Then Moss was sidelined with injury, and the losses piled up. Indiana State slipped from a surprising 8-0 start to a dismal 8-11 – a losing streak from which the team would never fully recover from, even after Moss returned.
The Sycamores must find success without Moss and fellow graduate Tyson Schnitker. With those two departing, two of Indiana State’s top three scorers are not back in the stable this winter, a total loss of 27 points per game. However, a trio that includes junior guard Gabriel Moore, sophomore Jay Tunnell and senior Trent Wurtz will provide a nice nucleus for Indiana State to work with. An inexperienced bench must learn quickly if Indiana State wants to join the MVC madness at all this season.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Eighth.
No Postseason
Bradley Braves (2005-06: 22-11, 11-7; lost in Sweet 16 to No. 1 Memphis)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 11 vs. DePaul
Dec. 3 at Michigan State
Dec. 16 vs. Iowa State (Des Moines, Iowa)
We all knew Bradley was going to be good last year, but maybe not Sweet 16 good. Repeating last March’s sensational run will prove nearly impossible this winter with 80 percent of the starting roster gone to graduation or the NBA. A whopping 50 points per game departed from the MVC’s second-best scoring offense with the losses of Marcellus Sommerville, Patrick O’Bryant, Tony Bennett and Lawrence Wright. All four of those players averaged at least 10 points per contest, so the Braves have several holes to fill.
Junior guard Daniel Ruffin will be the most experienced player returning after averaging 30 minutes per game last season. Senior center Zach Andrews, senior guards Will Franklin and J.J. Tauai, and sophomore guard Jeremy Crouch will also bring back enough experience to instill hopes of at least a winning season in Peoria.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: Ninth.
No Postseason
Illinois State Redbirds (2005-06: 9-19, 4-14)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 13 at Florida State
Who are these guys? Don’t take this question the wrong way. After last season’s not-so-memorable season, the arrival of several newcomers provide some hope of righting a ship that has been slowly sinking for the past two years. Freshmen Osiris Eldridge and Bobby Hill and junior transfer Domintrix Johnson will join the only returning starter and team-leading rebounder, senior Greg Dilligard. The Redbirds also welcome back Roberto Fortes and Michael Vandello, who both scored roughly five points in 13 and 21 minutes per game, respectively.
Illinois State rides into this season with unpredictability. For the most part, the early non-conference slate will provide this lineup the opportunity to mesh before the rugged conference season begins. The ability of these newcomers to quickly make an impact will determine whether the Redbirds remain stuck on the Valley’s floor or make a run for one of the top six seeds in the MVC Tournament.
2006-07 Prediction:
MVC: 10th.
No Postseason
