Atlantic Coast Conference Notebook
Entering the second week of 2007, the ACC is diving head-first into conference play. Some teams are looking to make a big splash, while others hope they aren’t in over their heads.
Clemson appears ready and willing to swim with the big boys. The Tigers have started the season 16-0 and have wins against Florida State and Georgia Tech in the team’s first week of conference play. Put your hand up if you thought the Tigers would be the last remaining undefeated ACC squad. No hands? I didn’t think so.
On the flip side, Georgia Tech – picked second by Hoopville in the preseason – is barely treading water right now. The Yellow Jackets now have conference losses to Miami and Clemson, which hurts the team’s NCAA Tournament aspirations. Based on recent setbacks, Georgia Tech’s on-court inconsistency is producing some bad karma. Within the past two weeks, the Yellow Jackets have lost freshman center Zach Peacock to a cheekbone injury and sophomore guard Lewis Clinch to a suspension. Peacock returned after one game, but Clinch could be done for the season after violating an unspecified school rule.
Although Clemson and Georgia Tech are heading in opposite directions, conference play could reverse the direction of each. The new year brings a new season with the ACC schedule hitting full throttle. Most ACC teams remain in the discussion as viable NCAA Tournament candidates, but some have more work to do than others to earn a bid. Let’s take a look.
Team Reports
Clemson Tigers (16-0, 2-0)
Dating back to last season, the Tigers have won 27 consecutive games with junior forward James Mays in the lineup. He missed the last half of 2005-06 because he was academically ineligible. Most of those wins, however, were not against elite teams. Clemson’s best win to date is a two-point squeaker at Florida State. The team’s best non-conference win was a blowout at in-state rival South Carolina.
The Tigers are off to a surprising start this season, but they are mostly taking care of business against weaker teams. According to Kem Pomeroy’s RPI rankings, the Tigers have played only two top 50 teams. After a winnable game at North Carolina State, the Tigers play four consecutive teams in the top 75, including at Maryland and Duke. If Clemson starts losing all their conference games against top opponents, the Tigers will suffer the same fate that Florida State did last season – a solid record without an NCAA Tournament invite thanks to no big victories, especially on the road.
Virginia Tech Hokies (11-4, 2-0)
The Hokies know this story well. Close losses have doomed Virginia Tech early in the season as all four of the team’s losses have come by five points or less. The Hokies are also 3-4 on the road. In non-conference play, Virginia Tech’s best win is a 69-37 shellacking of Appalachian State – an RPI anomaly thanks to the Mountaineers’ road success. Losses to sub-100 RPI teams like Western Michigan and Marshall look bad on the résumé of an ACC team.
But just when Virginia Tech was on the verge of disaster, the Hokies dug deep and found the desire to win close games. The Hokies survived a tough Demon Deacons squad to win their first ACC game in December. Then Virginia Tech grabbed the ultimate résumé-builder: a road win against Duke. The Hokies took care of business in Durham, winning in overtime. Last season, Virginia Tech was a fraction of a second away from a giant upset before Sean Dockery ripped out the hearts of the Hokie nation with a buzzer-beating half-court prayer. With the Duke victory, the Hokies are 2-0 early in conference play with two games apiece against North Carolina State and Miami.
Given the Hokies’ unimpressive non-conference performance, Virginia Tech needs to win at least 10 conference games to have a shot at an NCAA Tournament appearance. The Hokies do not have a particularly daunting schedule, which selection committee members will keep in mind. So games at Florida State and Georgia Tech could become de facto tiebreakers for selecting the last ACC team in the field.
Boston College Eagles (10-4, 2-0)
Boston College presents an interesting case for the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Non-conference losses to Vermont and Duquesne – in Chestnut Hill – look like criminal offenses for a would-be ACC contender. But the Eagles were missing shot-blocker extraordinaire Sean Williams vs. the Catamounts and team leader Jared Dudley vs. the Dukes. How much will the committee excuse their absences in those losses?
The answer to that relies on how the Eagles play during the next two months. Boston College took care of Maryland in December with Dudley and Williams in the lineup. They looked impressive again in the Eagles’ 74-58 victory at North Carolina State. Boston College’s schedule gives the Eagles an opportunity to run up a 5-0 record before playing Clemson, Florida State and Duke in about a week’s time. If the Eagles get on a roll and pass the midpoint of conference play near the top of the standings, expect the selection committee members to forget about those early season struggles.
North Carolina Tar Heels (14-1, 1-0)
There’s no doubt that the Tar Heels are bound for the NCAA Tournament. The only question in Chapel Hill is whether the team will survive a bruising conference schedule with an opportunity to receive a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. The Tar Heels’ only loss came against Gonzaga, which simply outworked the Tar Heels in Madison Square Garden. That loss was a perfect wake-up call for such a gifted squad – they must bring their A game every night.
The Tar Heels responded by winning every game since by at least nine points, including a solid victory against Greg Oden-less Ohio State in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels have tough road games ahead at Arizona, Duke and Maryland that will be good barometers for the maturity of this young bunch of future NBA ballers.
Virginia Cavaliers (9-4, 1-0)
Puerto Rico? No! Virginia’s holiday trip to paradise turned disastrous after Utah and Appalachian State bludgeoned the ill-prepared Cavaliers. Losses to Purdue and Stanford are not anything to lose sleep about in Charlottesville, but the Puerto Rican massacre negates Virginia’s outstanding home wins vs. Arizona and Gonzaga. The Cavaliers have not received votes in the polls in several weeks, which would indicate that Virginia does not place among the top 40 teams or so. Look for Virginia to change that status during conference play.
The Cavaliers have a tough stretch ahead against North Carolina, Boston College and Maryland, but Virginia needs to play with a sense of urgency to become a legitimate NCAA Tournament option. The rest of the conference slate looks more manageable, so Virginia could get to 10 or 11 wins if they can capture two of their next three games.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-5, 1-1)
A pair of home wins with an identical score – 88-78 – against Vanderbilt and Appalachian State highlight the Demon Deacons’ non-conference schedule. That’s not NCAA Tournament-worthy material. Nor is a loss to Big East bottom-feeder South Florida. Wake Forest looks ready to challenge teams sooner than many experts predicted, but this team is far from NCAA Tournament consideration right now.
For Wake Forest to make a run during conference play, the Demon Deacons need to pick up big road wins at Duke, North Carolina, Florida State and Maryland. Wake Forest probably has to win at least two of those games to receive national attention. The opportunity to make noise is there, but the Demon Deacons don’t appear to have the experience necessary to make it happen.
Miami Hurricanes (8-8, 1-1)
Miami’s only hopes for an NCAA Tournament bid rely on what would be a miraculous four-day run in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes had a terrible non-conference performance, losing to the likes of Binghamton and Cleveland State. Miami’s best victory was a shocker vs. Georgia Tech. But the best non-conference win was at Massachusetts, and that’s not going to impress many bracketologists.
Miami plays the ACC’s ranked teams only once, so the Hurricanes must win most of those games if they hope to build a strong résumé during the regular season. More realistically, the Hurricanes must work to position themselves for a run in the conference tournament.
Maryland Terrapins (14-2, 0-1)
The Terrapins have slipped off the national radar since losing to Notre Dame and Boston College in a week’s time. That’s just fine for this Maryland team. The Terrapins are played with a chip on their shoulder, crushing three bad opponents by at least 30 points in their last six games. Maryland’s best non-conference win came at Illinois, one of the toughest places to play in college basketball. The Terps also have victories against Michigan State and St. John’s in Madison Square Garden.
The non-conference schedule isn’t fantastic, but Maryland has had a solid start. The Terrapins must play a complete season and win nine or 10 conference games to solidify a spot in the NCAA Tournament. With a tough slate of ACC games ahead, nine or 10 wins would almost assuredly include two or three victories against ranked foes, which will push the Terrapins into the tournament without bubble concerns.
Duke Blue Devils (13-2, 0-1)
Entering the Jan. 10 game at Georgia Tech, Duke has not played a true road game this season. The Blue Devils have protected their home court 10 times, but they lost a tough overtime game to Virginia Tech. The other loss this season occurred in Kansas City against Marquette. Duke had risen through the rankings mostly because the Blue Devils kept winning, not because they were beating outstanding opponents. Duke’s best victories are against Air Force and Gonzaga, which are solid programs. But those names don’t have the same glitz as Ohio State or Florida.
Duke looks like a safe lock for an NCAA Tournament bid. But the Blue Devils do not want to tempt fate with a long losing streak. Road games at Georgia Tech and Miami are potential wins, and the Blue Devils need to take care of business in at least one game. An 0-3 start to conference play would bring out the doubters. On the other hand, if the young Blue Devils coalesce throughout the season, they will have an opportunity to solidify a top three seed in the NCAA Tournament during a three-game stretch that includes the annual bash in Cameron Indoor Stadium vs. North Carolina and road games at Maryland and Boston College.
Florida State Seminoles (12-4, 0-2)
Florida State has possibly the best non-conference win of any ACC team with a 70-66 upset of defending national champ Florida. The Seminoles can hang their hat on that victory all season, especially as the Gators continue to take care of business. And it’s a good thing the Gators are dominant because no other Florida State victory looks impressive.
All four of the Seminoles’ losses came to ranked teams, mostly on the road. But Florida State has lost badly in the three road games, which could become a trend in conference play if the Seminoles don’t pick up a win at Georgia Tech or Boston College during the next few weeks. Florida State will deserve to make the NCAA Tournament if the Seminoles win 10 conference games, but some of those wins have to come on the road.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-4, 0-2)
As mentioned earlier, the Yellow Jackets are in trouble. Despite the 11-4 record, Georgia Tech does not have many impressive victories. The best non-conference wins are against Purdue and Memphis, but losses to Miami and Vanderbilt erased the memory of those impressive wins. The Yellow Jackets now enter ACC play needing to win at least 10 games to prove that they are the athletically dominant squad from Maui, not the inexperienced lot that lost in Nashville and south Florida.
Georgia Tech will have plenty of opportunities to make up ground in the conference with two games against Duke, North Carolina and Florida State. The Yellow Jackets need big games against big-named opponents now rather than easy victories against weaker squads. The Yellow Jackets have the aura of potential, and the selection committee will reward the team if they show that they deserve the opportunity to play in late March.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (10-5, 0-2)
North Carolina State has one good win vs. Michigan to boast about. And that’s about it. The rest of the non-conference results is filled with cupcakes. None of the Wolfpack’s losses are bad – at Virginia, West Virginia and Cincinnati and at home against Alabama and Boston College. But the Wolfpack need to pick up 11 or 12 ACC wins to have any prayer at an NCAA Tournament bid. That’s not going to happen.
Like the Hurricanes, the Wolfpack will likely play their last game of the season in the ACC Tournament unless they can make a remarkable run. Like Wake Forest last season, North Carolina State could earn an NIT bid if they show signs of life toward the end of the regular season and win a few ACC Tournament games.
