NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
Feb. 23, 2007
Selection Sunday is barely two weeks away, conference tournaments commence next week, and bubble teams throughout the land are getting nervous. It must be late February.
As several conferences wrap up their regular seasons this weekend, the Crystal Basketball is finally beginning to produce a clearer image of this year’s NCAA Tournament. And once again, it’s not entirely pretty. For example, a soft bubble forces choices between teams like Illinois and Clemson. One has only three wins against the top 50. The other has only three wins in the last 10 games. They have nearly identical RPIs and a similar strength of schedule. So who do you pick?
Both Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos foresee Illinois in the tournament. Dan picked the Illini over the Tigers, while Protos needed both teams to fill his field. Hauptman avoided that situation via the West Coast Conference. He sees Santa Clara upsetting Gonzaga for the conference’s automatic bid. By virtue of big early wins, the Bulldogs make the tournament as an at-large bid. But Protos doesn’t see Gonzaga reaching the NCAA Tournament without an automatic bid, so it’s conference championship or bust.
The Crystal Basketball shed light on another quandary for a team representing the West Side. Protos assigned the Wolf Pack a No. 4 seed, while Hauptman placed them at No. 3. Nevada will be an interesting case for the selection committee. Protos considers the Wolf Pack to be a slight upgrade to last season’s George Washington team that stormed through the regular season with only one loss, flamed out in the conference tournament and received only a No. 8 seed in a bracket with Duke. The Colonials played only three teams in the top 50 and had an atrocious strength of schedule, especially in non-conference play. Let’s fast-forward to this season now.
Nevada is 23-2 entering this weekend, but the Wolf Pack are only 1-1 against top 50 teams. They have a strength of schedule ranked No. 119, by far the worst schedule played by any team in the RPI’s top 20. It’s hard to find an elite victory on the schedule – California is probably the best option. That’s not going to impress many selection committee members.
In comparison, Winthrop has two wins against the top 50 – and the non-conference wins at Mississippi State and Old Dominion appear stronger than Nevada’s win against the Golden Bears. The Eagles haven’t lost to any teams outside the top 50 and have played a much stronger non-conference slate. Yet, as of right now, Nevada is a lock for the tournament while Winthrop is mired in a debate about whether a team from a conference as weak as the Big South should ever get an at-large bid. The Crystal Basketball yielded a vision that’s in line with public opinion. Hauptman has Winthrop as a No. 12 seed, and Protos gave the Eagles a No. 11 seed.
Here are the rest of this week’s Crystal Basketball revelations.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 Florida UCLA Ohio State North Carolina |
Ohio State UCLA Florida North Carolina |
 Wisconsin Memphis Texas A&M Washington State |
Wisconsin Kansas Texas A&M Washington State |
 Kansas Pittsburgh Nevada Georgetown |
Pittsburgh Southern Illinois Memphis Georgetown |
 Southern Illinois Virginia Tech Kentucky UNLV |
Virginia Tech Texas Nevada Butler |
 Butler Oregon Marquette Duke |
Indiana Kentucky UNLV Marquette |
 Air Force Boston College Texas BYU |
Duke Air Force Oregon Arizona |
 Vanderbilt Arizona West Virginia Virginia |
Stanford Villanova Tennessee Boston College |
 Tennessee Villanova Indiana USC |
Oklahoma State USC Notre Dame West Virginia |
 Texas Tech Notre Dame Maryland Stanford |
Virginia Maryland Vanderbilt Michigan State |
 Creighton Oklahoma State Georgia Tech Santa Clara |
Texas Tech Alabama Xavier BYU |
 Louisville Michigan State Old Dominion Illinois |
VCU Winthrop Creighton Clemson |
 Alabama Gonzaga Winthrop Xavier |
Georgia Tech Gonzaga Illinois Davidson |
 Missouri State Davidson Akron South Alabama |
Louisville Missouri State Holy Cross Texas A&M – Corpus Christi |
 Holy Cross Long Beach State Oral Roberts Penn |
Akron Oral Roberts Vermont Penn |
 Vermont Austin Peay Marist Weber State |
South Alabama Marist Austin Peay Delaware State |
 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi East Tennessee State Central Connecticut State Delaware State Jackson State |
East Tennessee State Central Connecticut State Cal State Fullerton Jackson State Weber State |
 Last 4 In:Illinois Alabama Gonzaga Missouri State |
Last 4 In: Georgia Tech Illinois Louisville Missouri State |
| Last 4 Out: Syracuse Clemson Kansas State Georgia |
Last 4 Out: Purdue Arkansas Florida State Syracuse |
| Shooting Stars: Georgetown Louisville Michigan State Maryland |
Shooting Stars: UNLV Louisville Michigan State Maryland |
| Sinking Ships: Boston College Oklahoma State Alabama Missouri State |
Sinking Ships: Arkansas Clemson Florida State Oklahoma State |
| Conference Breakdown: ACC: 7 Big East: 7 Pac-10: 6 SEC: 6 Big 12: 5 Big Ten: 5 Missouri Valley: 3 Mountain West: 3 West Coast: 2 22 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: ACC: 8 Big East: 7 Pac-10: 6 Big 12: 5 Big Ten: 5 SEC: 5 Missouri Valley: 3 Mountain West: 3 23 one-bid conferences |
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail us your comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your own NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout the next two months, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. The calendar reads February. In this shortened month, Cinderella has less time to pick out her dancing slippers.
