Big Ten Conference Notebook
Locked up
It’s good to be an Ohio State fan these days. The Buckeye football squad handled nemesis Michigan (a decent consolation prize for a team overrun in the national title game), the women’s basketball team sewed up a Big Ten title, and on Sunday, the men followed suit.
In a 40-minute trip through the meat grinder, the Buckeyes enacted revenge on Wisconsin and outlasted the feisty Badgers 49-48. OSU can cruise through its final game (at Michigan Sunday) knowing the conference crown has been delivered, and begin preparing for a seemingly inevitable third meeting with the Badgers for the Big Ten Tournament title. It seems likely that with Sunday’s win, the Buckeyes also have themselves in an enviable position to grab a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State is closing out the season as well as any team in the nation, considering the recent losses by Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin. And they showed Sunday that they can win half-court, possession-by-possession games. Their 49 points were the fewest they’ve scored all season (by ten points) and they only canned four 3-pointers (they average nearly eight a game). And while they’ve only played five games all season decided by five points or fewer, they improved to 4-1 in those games. They are tournament ready.
Still a lock
Even though Wisconsin‘s Big Ten losses increased by 200 percent this week (from one to three), the Badgers should still feel comfortable as a shoe-in for at least a No. 2 seed. They fell to a surging Michigan State team before Sunday’s loss in Columbus. Alando Tucker had a relatively quiet week, virtually disappearing in the second half against Michigan State, and throwing bricks from downtown against Ohio State. Tucker shot 11-30 in the two contests and attempted only three free throws.
A scarier sight for Badger fans was Brian Butch leaving the floor Sunday in pain, holding an elbow that moved in a direction elbows are not supposed to move. Butch will miss 4-6 weeks with a dislocation and fracture of said elbow. That all but ends his season, barring a speedy recovery, coupled with a Final Four run by his teammates. Wisconsin, without Butch, ends the season at home against Michigan State and will have a chance to regain momentum through the conference tournament. Again, they’re a No. 2 seed at worst, and if things fall correctly, they could vault to a top seed.
Turning the key
It’s clear which team is ready to step up and claim third place in the conference: Michigan State. In their last four contests, all home wins, the Spartans have beaten Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana, all of whom were above MSU in the standings at the time of the game. They close out the conference season with difficult games at Michigan and Wisconsin. While one win would certainly be enough for a bid, an 0-2 finish would still probably leave them in, pending their performance in the conference tourney.
Drew Neitzel has quietly put together a stellar season for the Spartans and should be a lock for first team all-conference. He’s averaging over 18 points per game, and leads the conference in free throw percentage and 3-pointers made. It was hard to tell coming into the season whether or not Neitzel could step up as the number one option. He clearly can. Can we call MSU a lock at this point? Probably not. But the key’s halfway in.
Indiana, while falling behind MSU in the pecking order, still remains solidly in the tournament, but needs to finish strongly to sew up a bid. The Hoosiers have lost 3 of 4 but finish against the conference’s bottom feeders, Northwestern and Penn State. All signs point to a 10-6 finish and likely third-place standing. Michigan State has better wins overall (IU also beat Wisconsin, though) and both will probably receive similar seeds.
The puzzling aspect of Indiana’s slide is a lack of consistent shortcoming. They surrendered 81 points in a loss to Purdue, but gave up only 58 to Michigan and still fell. D.J. White and Roderick Wilmont combined for 33 points to beat Minnesota, but were equally as present in the Purdue defeat. The constant, it appears, is one that afflicts the rest of the league as well: an inability to win on the road. The only win came at home while the three defeats were on unfriendly territory. With that said, Indiana must beat Northwestern on the road to regain their confidence. In all honesty, if I’m on the selection committee, a loss to Northwestern is an automatic eliminator.
At the door
At 9-6 in conference, with an RPI of 31 and the 25th-toughest schedule in the country, Illinois‘ resume looks like one of a tournament team. But this team is as up-and-down as any in the league. Injuries and suspensions have curtailed Bruce Weber’s ability to maintain a consistent rotation, but luckily, those players who avoided such afflictions have played well. Warren Carter is the obvious benefactor of Brian Randle’s bad groin, Rich McBride’s bad decision-making and Jamar Smith’s bad, well, there may not be a word for someone who drives drunk, hits a tree, and leaves a concussed teammate in the car, thinking he had died. Ouch.
Illinois has shown solid resolve since the accident, however, beating Michigan and winning at Penn State. A winnable game at Iowa remains for the Illini, who, with a win, would improve to 4-4 on the road in the Big Ten. That stat alone is good enough for a bid.
Next in line is Purdue, boasting a respectable RPI (47), SOS (28) and conference mark (7-7). And of the teams in the hunt, the Boilermakers have the easiest remaining schedule, with home games against Minnesota and Northwestern. Purdue has also beaten each team around them in the standings, preventing them from being eliminated due to a lack of quality wins. Throw in early-season wins over Virginia and at Oklahoma, and the resume looks better. We’ve seen 9-7 Big Ten teams be left out, and with the mess of teams likely to finish at or around that record, Purdue could be the next squad omitted. A win in the conference tournament would help, and two wins would probably be more than enough. Get to 9-7 first, then we’ll talk.
The most difficult remaining schedule, which in turn presents the biggest opportunity to stake a claim for a bid, belongs to Michigan. The Wolverines will welcome the conference’s hottest two teams, Michigan State and Ohio State, to Ann Arbor, needing at least one win to have a chance. There should be no need for motivation against the rival in-state school, and who knows how hard OSU will play with virtually nothing on the line.
Michigan’s RPI and SOS are markedly worse than the teams mentioned above, so an 8-8 finish probably wouldn’t cut it, save for a deep tournament run. The fact remains that Michigan does not have the quality wins the other contending teams do. They were also embarrassed by both UCLA and Georgetown on national stages, and those losses will be hard to forget. This week gives them a chance to shore up many things.
The only other team with any type of claim is Iowa, who, at 8-6 in conference, is without question the surprise of the year. How have they done it? They’ve defended home court in conference (only loss to Wisconsin) and picked up a couple road wins. They’ll have an opportunity to add a tally to each of those categories this week, with a road test (more like a quiz) at Penn State and a home game against Illinois.
A 10-6 finish would normally equal a tournament bid, but for Iowa, it probably will mean nothing. They played incredibly poorly in their non-conference schedule, losing games to both Arizona State (1-15 in the Pac 10) and Drake (6-12 in the MVC). They were only 8-6 coming in to conference play, and without a signature win, it seems far-fetched that the Hawkeyes will be dancing. They must advance to the conference tournament title game to demand a double-take.
