Missouri Valley Conference Notebook
by Neal Heston
Competitive weekend ahead
Advancing to the semifinals is a must to even have a view of an NCAA berth. For most teams, reaching the title game would make hearts beat a lot slower come March 11.
Two statements can be made with high confidence about the league going into Thursday: Three Valley schools will make the dance on Selection Sunday, and Southern Illinois will not win the MVC Tournament, with all due respect to the Salukis. The top seed hasn’t won the tourney title in almost 10 seasons, and too many other Valley squads need that automatic bid more than SIU.
Hoopville’s Predicted Tourney Champion: Missouri State
The Bears have been so close the past three seasons, but this will be the year they finally punch the ticket. Doing so won’t be easy, going through Wichita State, Creighton and Southern Illinois, but MSU has the talent to take down the first two and the defense to hang with Southern Illinois.
Where will they be after Arch Madness subsides?
Southern Illinois: NCAA Tournament. This is a no-brainer, even if the Salukis go down in the quarters.
Creighton: NCAA Tournament. Make the quarterfinals, and the Bluejays are in. Creighton might even be able to survive a one-and-out with its 13 league wins.
Missouri State: NCAA Tournament. We saw last year that 12 MVC wins and a top-30 RPI wasn’t enough, but the Bears have the tools and the right path to take the tourney title and breathe easy on Selection Sunday.
Northern Iowa: NIT. Reaching the title game would put UNI back in NCAA conversations, but the Panthers are likely headed to the NIT unless they hoist the trophy on Sunday.
Bradley: NIT. This is a tough pick. If the Braves take down UNI in the quarterfinals, and Missouri State or Wichita State fail to make it past the semis, put the Braves in the dance – or at least in the mix.
Wichita State: NIT. WSU has faltered since climbing back into the race two weeks ago and anything short of a tourney title dooms the Shockers to the NIT.
Drake, Illinois State, Evansville and Indiana State: No postseason, One team out of this group – the Drake Bulldogs – can climb out and reach the postseason. Drake is capable of pulling the upsets and making a strong case for the NIT, or dare we say the auto bid to the NCAA.
(8) Evansville vs. (9) Drake
Don’t pit Drake into the quarters against Southern Illinois so quickly. Evansville crushed the Bulldogs by 19 in late December and almost earned the series sweep last week during an 82-79 defeat. The key for Drake will be reaching the 80-point mark, which has happened three times in the past five games. Winner: Drake
(7) Illinois State vs. (10) Indiana State
This first round matchup pits two squads heading in opposite directions. Indiana State has dropped 13-of-14, while Illinois State has won three-of-four that includes a 10-point victory over Creighton and a near-miss at Northern Iowa. The Redbirds should get another shot against Creighton. Winner: Illinois State
Quarterfinals
(1) Southern Illinois vs. (9) Drake
If a No. 1 seed is to finally win the MVC Tournament again, it is this Southern Illinois team. But Drake is not the first opponent any team would want to see. SIU gets the nod based on the series sweep, but the Salukis have had close calls during their recent winning streak, averaging wins of just more than five points during the past five games. Winner: Southern Illinois
(4) Bradley vs. (5) Northern Iowa
It’s the typical situation for a 4 vs. 5 match in the MVC Tournament: Winner keeps slim hopes for an NCAA berth, while the defeated begins preparing for the NIT. Northern Iowa needs this victory more after going 3-7 since its battle for first place against Southern Illinois on Jan. 23. Two of those three victories came last week though, including a 79-70 win at Bradley. UNI also owns the season series this winter. Winner: Northern Iowa
(2) Creighton vs. (7) Illinois State
Expect a different Bluejay team to appear than the one that lost by 10 at Illinois State last week. Creighton made a nice rebound against Wichita State last Saturday, and the Bluejays just don’t lose very much in the MVC Tourney. CU advances to the semis and clinches its NCAA bid. Winner: Creighton
(3) Missouri State vs. (6) Wichita State
What a familiar situation for Missouri State: twelve league wins in the nation’s sixth-best conference and 21 overall still does not make you a lock in most experts’ brackets. Recall last season, when the Bears reached the 20-win plateau, had a 12-6 conference mark and a top-25 RPI but still missed out on the NCAA after a quarterfinal exit in the MVC Tourney. Expect different results this season from an MSU team that swept Wichita State and has won seven of its last nine. The Shockers, who have been up-and-down all year after a 9-0 start, have dropped four consecutive contests. Winner: Missouri State
Semifinals
(1) Southern Illinois vs. (5) Northern Iowa
Round three. Northern Iowa took the initial match for first place when these two teams met in Cedar Falls, but Southern Illinois took round two in Carbondale during mid-January. Since then, both teams have headed in opposite directions, but we always know that a contest between these two will come down to the final basket. SIU is the pick, but be careful with UNI’s rebound this past week. The top seed could go down in the semis for a fourth consecutive season. Winner: Southern Illinois
(2) Creighton vs. (3) Missouri State
Creighton swept the series with three- and four-point wins, but this is where the Bears finally catch the prey. Both teams have fared well during the last 10 games (going 7-3), but MSU finished the season on a higher note and is aware a victory here would punch a ticket to the NCAA. Winner: Missouri State
Championship
(1) Southern Illinois vs. (3) Missouri State
Sixty is the magic number for Missouri State. The Bears have been limited to less than 60 points three times this season in MVC play (0-3), and Southern Illinois is responsible for two of those. If MSU can fend off that feisty Salukis defense for one game and get close to its 75 PPG, the Bears will finally hoist the tournament trophy. Hoopville believes that happens, as the curse of seed No. 1 continues. Winner: Missouri State
