Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview
No long-winded introduction needed: here’s how the Big Ten Tournament will play out.
First Round
Simply put, these games aren’t worthy of thorough analysis. None of the low seeds – Minnesota, Northwestern or Penn State – have a chance.
Michigan badly needs a win and is on the more talented side of what may be the largest gap between No. 8 and No. 9 seeds in the history of conference tournaments. Seriously, the drop is astronomical, from an 8-8 team to a 3-13 one. The Wolverines crushed the Gophers both times they met this season, and will make it three in a row by early Thursday afternoon. Michigan 76, Minnesota 60.
Michigan State a No. 7 seed? Just typing it feels uncomfortable. That will be the same feeling you’ll have if you tune in to this game. MSU isn’t what you’d call an offensive juggernaut, but their offense is on steroids compared to Northwestern’s snoozer style. When the teams met in February, Northwestern managed only 13 rebounds for the entire game. Wildcat fans, catch up on your soap operas. Michigan State 68, Northwestern 48.
If anyone but Illinois had drawn Penn State, I’d copy the first two paragraphs here. But the Illini don’t present the defensive challenges they once did. PSU, even with the worst defense in the league, will be able to score alongside Illinois’ second-worst offense, but won’t pull off an upset here. The Crush will ride the near-hometown (Chicago) crowd to a victory. Illinois 65, Penn State 61.
Quarterfinals
Ohio State will expose all of Michigan’s flaws, bouncing back from a lackluster performance Sunday in Ann Arbor to destroy the Wolverines and their tournament hopes. It’s going to be bad, people, and there’s no way the selection committee will pick Michigan after this performance. It’s just a hunch, but I don’t think this one’s close. Oden and company swat the Maize and Blue out of the tourney. Ohio State 84, Michigan 66.
In what could be an “elimination game,” No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Purdue square off in the second quarterfinal. Even though both teams finished with 9-7 records and Iowa slaughtered the Boilers in their only meeting, I can’t pick the Hawkeyes. Purdue’s two horses, Carl Landry and David Teague, are seniors. Tyler Smith, Adam Haluska’s wingman, is a freshman. I’ll run with the two seniors. Purdue 70, Iowa 68.
The most intriguing quarterfinal matchup features 2-seed Wisconsin and 7-seed Michigan State. If not for a clutch 3-pointer by Wisconsin’s Kammron Taylor, the Spartans would be riding a road win in Madison into the tourney. As it is, they’ll get their chance for revenge Friday evening. Wisconsin has little to prove and has slumped a bit down the stretch. I see them as no lower than a No. 2 seed in the dance, and that security, combined with the loss of Brian Butch and the determination of a Tom Izzo team in March, creates some upset potential. Michigan State 59, Wisconsin 55.
Indiana backed in as the No. 3 seed, and will face a hostile Chicago crowd against Illinois. The Hoosier guards have been too inconsistent to back, and D.J. White disappears more than any other marquee player in the conference. This game could become a three-point battle between Indiana’s Roderick Wilmont and Illinois’ Rich McBride. I like McBride. Illinois 74, Indiana 70.
Semifinals
Can anyone present a plausible scenario in which Purdue would beat Ohio State? Me neither. Buckeyes roll. Ohio State 77, Purdue 62.
With both Michigan State and Illinois dancing by now, this game is for seeding. In the past, this game would push the speedometer, but this year, things are a little different. Both teams are built on defense and rebounding, and Ohio State will have worn out the track by tip-off. I wouldn’t bet on either team making it out of the 50s, and a big shot by someone (like MSU’s Drew Neitzel?) will determine the game. Sorry, Drew, I like Illinois. Illinois 58, Michigan State 54.
Finals
I’ve skimmed through Ohio State’s first two wins. Let’s give them some ink.
When the Buckeyes dismantled Illinois 62-44 in their only meeting of the season, they won in an unfamiliar way: with defense. It was one of their first games with Greg Oden, and Illinois shot a putrid 24 percent for the game, making a Big Ten season-low fourteen shots. While I don’t expect a repeat performance from OSU, Illinois simply will not have the horses at this point, after playing three games in consecutive days, to run with the Buckeyes. The closeout legs on defense won’t be there to shut down snipers Ivan Harris, Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler and Daequan Cook. Ohio State cements its position as the No. 1 overall seed heading into the dance. Ohio State 74, Illinois 68.
