Is the Missouri Valley Seen Differently Now?
Generally speaking, perceptions don’t change quickly. That goes for a number of things in life, including college basketball. Enter the Missouri Valley Conference now that a week of hot debate is upon us.
The conference tournament is in the books. The next few days will have a great deal of discussion about who is in and who is out of the NCAA Tournament. The Valley is one conference that will be in the middle of much of it, especially a member that was in the middle of it all last year. Missouri State was arguably the most notable snub from last season’s NCAA Tournament, and after they lost in Saturday’s semifinal to Creighton in what some felt might be an NCAA elimination game, they again have to sweat out the next week regarding their postseason status.
Indeed, entering the conference tournament, several teams felt they had to win it to feel remotely safe about their NCAA chances. Only Southern Illinois could be considered a lock coming in, while Creighton and Missouri State looked like they had a chance with a couple of wins and Bradley might have a remote chance at an at-large bid if they made it to the final. Four teams were in play, but most discussion has the conference getting no more than three teams. The Bluejays are now in by virtue of their win on Sunday, so Missouri State and Bradley remain to be discussed.
The Missouri Valley at one point was ranked No. 1 in RPI this season, and was in the top 5 for much of the season. Entering this past weekend, it was No. 6, ahead of the Big 12, and it has been ahead of the Big East at times this season as well, which is fitting since Valley schools were a perfect 5-0 against Big East members with three games being true road games.
Intuitively, one would think that finishing second (Creighton at 13-5) or even third (Missouri State at 12-6) in a conference rated that highly would have analysts believing they are in good shape for an NCAA Tournament bid. But that’s not the case, and one has to wonder if it’s a sign that even with the Missouri Valley’s success, the perception of the conference hasn’t changed much.
It has proven itself against the BCS conferences rated ahead of it – this season Valley schools went 15-12 against members of the BCS conferences, the first time it posted a winning record since the Big 12 was formed 10 years ago. But the talk is that the Valley will be lucky to get three teams in the NCAA Tournament. The third place team in, say, the Big 12 or Big East, on the other hand? They’re almost surely a lock.
What’s wrong with this picture?
It has to be perception. The Valley is simply not seen the same way as the BCS conferences. There are understandable reasons why, not the least of which is that many of the BCS conferences have a lot of teams in major metropolitan areas while Missouri Valley schools are mostly in medium-sized cities. There is also history, as the Valley doesn’t have a long history of sending four and five teams to the NCAA Tournament as conferences like the Big East and Big 12 have.
“If we were the third-best team in the Big 12, we wouldn’t be having this conversation,” said Missouri State head coach Barry Hinson. “It’s sad that we have to have it today, but I do believe that this league deserves three teams.”
Keep in mind, this isn’t about the NCAA Selection Committee. We won’t know their opinions on all teams until Sunday, and it is known that they don’t take conference affiliation into consideration. The recent exercise by the USBWA to do a mock selection show was a fantastic event that shed a lot of light on how this proceeds, even if there are still some areas for improvement. (As one example, it is this writer’s opinion that busy athletic directors and conference commissioners shouldn’t comprise the committee because they already have plenty to do and this job is so important. But that’s another column.) This is about what has been out there in the media of late, from those who project brackets to those simply talking about the Missouri Valley’s place in college basketball.
Although the perception doesn’t seem to have changed in some respects, MVC commissioner Doug Elgin thinks it has. The success the conference and others like it, such as the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA), has added to the respect people have for the conference.
“There is a changed perspective on our league, with a change factor like upsets in the NCAA Tournament that have had a cumulative effect,” said Elgin, who has served on the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
One thing this points to is using the number of teams in the NCAA Tournament to evaluate a conference’s success. That, along with the number of teams in the NIT, is often used as an indicator of how good a conference is and how successful a season is. Where the Missouri Valley may well have fewer teams in the NCAA Tournament this year, a season where they were better in non-conference play with an 87-32 mark, it may fall victim to this. One key reason for its overall success this year is that the bottom of the conference is better, as no team is outside the top 140 in RPI. Last season, the bottom four teams were outside the top 160 in the RPI.
“I don’t know if being better necessarily means more NCAA Tournament bids,” said Elgin, who is among those who thinks the conference is better this year. He did note that the conference may not have four teams better than the four they had at the top last year, even if the conference is better overall. That goes along with the improvement of the bottom of the conference as a key reason for their success.
At the end of the day, the Valley will likely have six postseason teams, as Northern Iowa and Wichita State should have good enough resumes for the NIT. That will match last season’s total, which was a conference record. Whether the perception of the conference changes much in the public eye is up for debate. One thing that is for certain is that it should call into question the notion of evaluating a conference by the number of NCAA Tournament teams it has.
