Pac-10 Conference 2007-08 Preview
The Pac-10 is back with a vengeance.
That just about sums up the conference after a banner year last year and what looks to be another one ahead. Last year followed several down years for the conference, one where it was quite top-heavy and looked at first like it might stay that way for the foreseeable future. But as we enter the 2007-08 season, the conference looks arguably better than ever and very strong from top to bottom.
A look at the preseason projections bears this strength out. Even Arizona State, picked ninth, should be markedly better in year two of the Herb Sendek era, as three key guards are now sophomores after playing a lot of minutes last year and freshman James Harden and Duke transfer Eric Boateng lead a nice cast of newcomers that will give the Sun Devils a boost.
As if that’s not enough, the conference had great success in recruiting to keep this going. This year’s freshman class is tremendous, and already next year’s looks strong as well. The most ballyhooed are UCLA’s Kevin Love and USC’s O.J. Mayo, but they’re hardly alone. Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless is another elite freshman, as is Harden at Arizona State is another, Mayo’s teammates Davon Jefferson and Angelo Johnson, Oregon’s Drew Viney and Washington’s Matthew Bryan-Amaning. The quality doesn’t end there, but those are the big names and many of them will get plenty of minutes right away for their teams.
There were no coaching changes in the off-season, at least among head coaches. All ten from last season are still at the helm entering this year, but there were some notable changes in the assistant coaching ranks.
- Jim Rosborough, the long-time top assistant to Lute Olson, declined a reassignment outside the basketball staff and was replaced by former Tennessee and Northwestern head coach Kevin O’Neill.
- Kerry Keating, previously an assistant at UCLA the past four seasons, became the head coach at Santa Clara.
- In July, Joe Pasternack went home to New Orleans to become the Privateers’ new head coach after four seasons as an assistant at California.
- Another Cal assistant from last year, Dennis Gates, left to go close to home as an assistant on Ricardo Patton’s new staff at Northern Illinois.
Some important names and faces may have changed, but what will stay the same as last season is the Pac-10’s place among the elite conferences – right near the top. In this case, it should be right at the top, as the conference is loaded.
Preseason Awards
Player of the Year: Darren Collison, UCLA
Top Freshman: Kevin Love, UCLA
Defensive Player of the Year: Darren Collison, UCLA
Coach on the Hot Seat: Jay John, Oregon State
Best NBA Prospect: Kevin Love, UCLA
All-Pac-10 Team
Chase Budinger, So. F, Arizona
Darren Collison, Jr. G, UCLA
Lawrence Hill, Jr. F, Stanford
Tajuan Porter, So. G, Oregon
Kyle Weaver, Sr. G-F, Washington State
UCLA Bruins (30-6, 15-3 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Darren Collison (12.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.2 spg)
Jr. G Josh Shipp (13.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.3 spg)
Jr. F Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.7 spg)
Jr. F Lorenzo Mata (6.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 bpg)
Fr. C Kevin Love
Schedule Highlights: UCLA is in the College Basketball Experience Classic early on, hosting Youngstown State and either Weber State or CS San Bernardino. They also host Ivy League contender Yale, George Washington, Texas (Pac-10/Big 12 Series). They go on the road to play at Michigan and play Davidson in Anaheim at the John R. Wooden Classic.
Outlook: Although Arron Afflalo is gone, the Bruins have plenty of pieces returning to get to the Final Four again, especially with the addition of Love. They will remain solid on the perimeter with Collison, the leader and top defender in the conference, and Shipp being joined by Russell Westbrook and designated shooter Michael Roll off the bench. Shipp had arthroscopic surgery on his left hip in April, but should be in good shape for the season. Mbah a Moute will be a three-year starter by season’s end, while Mata is the role player in the bunch and Love will grab one rebound after another. There is plenty of depth up front with Alfred Aboya, Nikola Dragovic, James Keefe and freshman Chace Stanback in the mix. The Bruins will continue to give opponents fits with their defense, and that along with a backcourt that can score will go a long way towards another deep run in March.
Washington State Cougars (26-8, 13-5 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Derrick Low (13.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 spg)
Sr. G-F Kyle Weaver (11.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.6 apg, 1.2 bpg, 2.2 spg)
Jr. F Daven Harmeling (8.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg)
Sr. F-C Robbie Cowgill (8.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Jr. C Aron Baynes (5.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Cougars host the Cougar Hispanic College Fund Classic early on, where they will play Big Sky favorite Montana, Mississippi Valley State, and Air Force. Then they hit the road to play at Baylor (Pac-10/Big 12 Series) and Gonzaga. In Pac-10 play, they have a four-game homestand starting in late January and finish the regular season with three straight on the road.
Outlook: The Cougars and national coach of the year Tony Bennett are out to prove that last season was no fluke, as they tied a school record with 26 wins. To that end, four starters return and the team has five seniors and four juniors, led by the solid backcourt of Low and the versatile Weaver, the latter of whom will get a few double-doubles along the way. Harmeling complements them with his touch from long range, and Taylor Rochestie and Nikola Koprivica ensure that there isn’t a drop-off when they go to the bench. Cowgill and much-improved Baynes anchor the inside game, where there isn’t great depth and players like junior Caleb Forrest and senior Chris Henry will need to help as the Cougars were out-rebounded last season. The Cougars allowed fewer points than any other team last season and also turned the ball over less than any other team.
Oregon Ducks (29-8, 11-7 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
So. G Tajuan Porter (14.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Sr. G Bryce Taylor (14.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.0 spg)
Sr. G Malik Hairston (11.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.1 apg)
So. F Joevan Catron (3.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg)
Sr. F Maarty Leunen (10.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg)
Schedule Highlights: The season opens at home for the Ducks as they host the World Vision Invitational with Pepperdine, Pacific and MAC favorite Western Michigan. Later, they plat Utah at the Rose Garden in the Pape’ Jam and host West Coast contender San Francisco. Road highlights include part of a home-and-home with St. Mary’s, Kansas State (Pac-10/Big 12 Series), Nebraska, and Summit League contender Oakland in a homecoming game for Malik Hairston and Tajuan Porter.
Outlook: The experienced Ducks won’t sneak up on anyone this year. They return four starters from last season’s team and add three players who should help right away. At the nerve center of it all will be the perimeter trio of Porter, Taylor and Hairston, much like last season. Porter burst upon the scene early, while Taylor shot the ball more like he’s capable of and Hairston was all the better for not having to score a ton of points for the team to win. Freshmen Kamyron Brown and Drew Viney both add depth and have the talent to contribute something right away. The frontcourt is solid and unspectacular, with Leunen being one of the best hidden gems and Catron the likely new starter, although junior college transfer Frantz Dorsainvil could challenge him. The big key will be a floor leader emerging to replace Aaron Brooks.
Arizona Wildcats (20-11, 11-7 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Jerryd Bayless
Sr. G Jawann McClellan (9.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.7 apg)
So. F Chase Budinger (15.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.2 spg)
So. F Jordan Hill (4.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
Sr. C Kirk Walters (redshirt)
Schedule Highlights: As is usually the case, the Wildcats won’t be laying down in non-conference play. They open with Big Sky contender Northern Arizona at home, then welcome Virginia. In late November, a tough stretch begins: at Kansas, home against Big West contender Cal State Fullerton, home against Texas A&M in the Pac-10/Big 12 Series, and against Illinois at the United Center. It doesn’t get much easier after that: Fresno State and San Diego State at home, at UNLV in between those games, then at Memphis to close out 2007.
Outlook: The past few seasons have been rather non-descript by Arizona standards, and that along with the strength of the conference has lowered expectations for this team. But Lute Olson clearly thinks highly of them with the schedule he has put together, and as usual it’s not like they aren’t lacking in talent. Budinger had an excellent freshman season, while McClellan can be one of the top wings in the conference if he is fully healthy and Hill really came along in the latter part of last season. Bayless and Jamelle Horne lead a talented group of freshmen and should get plenty of minutes right away. Holdovers like juniors Mohamed Tangara and Fendi Onubun need to give this team more, or else they will be very thin inside. Defense has been the subject of much discussion with this team, and rightly so: only Washington allowed more points than the Wildcats last season, and only Stanford forced fewer turnovers.
Stanford Cardinal (18-13, 10-8 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Mitch Johnson (4.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.3 apg)
Jr. G Anthony Goods (12.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.3 apg)
Sr. G-F Fred Washington (8.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.6 apg)
Jr. F Lawrence Hill (15.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.1 bpg)
So. C Robin Lopez (7.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.4 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Cardinal will head on the road four times in non-conference play, and none will be pushovers. They play at Northwestern, MAAC contender Siena, Colorado (in the Pac-10/Big 12 Series) and Texas Tech. Games at Maples Pavilion start with the season-opening Basketball Travelers Classic, concluding that with a game against Big West favorite UC Santa Barbara. Then they host Ivy League contender Yale, West Coast contender Santa Clara and Fresno State.
Outlook: No team in the conference brings back as much scoring or rebounding from last season as the Cardinal, which returns their entire starting lineup. However, the season isn’t starting out well already as Brook Lopez has run into academic issues that will keep him out at least until December. The frontcourt is still strong with Hill, one of the conference’s best players, and Robin Lopez, along with seniors Peter Prowitt and Taj Finger off the bench. This unit helped the Cardinal post the second-best rebounding margin and block the most shots in the conference last season. Even without Brook Lopez, the perimeter players are the ones who will tell the tale of how far this team goes. Johnson needs to improve at the point from being just serviceable, while Goods is a good scorer and Washington is a good wing that can score and pass. The perimeter unit needs to play up to complement the frontcourt if this team is to go far. The Cardinal will need to take better care of the ball, as they had the worst turnover margin in the conference.
USC Trojans (25-12, 11-7 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
So. G Daniel Hackett (5.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.8 apg)
Fr. G O.J. Mayo
So. G Dwight Lewis (5.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.1 apg)
So. F Taj Gibson (12.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.9 bpg)
Jr. C RouSean Cromwell (2.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The young Trojans will be tested often in a tough non-conference schedule. They get a couple of early road games, heading to the Citadel and South Carolina. After that, they host the Anaheim Classic at the Anaheim Convention Center, where they play San Diego and either South Alabama or MAC contender Miami (Ohio). After hosting Oklahoma (Pac-10/Big 12 Series) and Kansas, they play Memphis in the Jimmy V Classic in New York and later host Big West contender Cal Poly.
Outlook: There is plenty of young talent on the Trojans’ roster, but it is just that: young. Add to it that the team has been a walking infirmary in the early weeks of practice, and this team could fall off the radar a bit in non-conference play since the schedule is not easy. Mayo will start right away and be a key on the perimeter with Hackett and Lewis, and freshman Angelo Johnson could start while Hackett is out with a broken jaw and not be ready to leave upon his return. Freshmen Marcus Simmons and Davon Jefferson will both have plenty of opportunities on the wing, with Jefferson being an exceptional athlete capable of scoring and rebounding. Inside, Gibson anchors the post fresh off an excellent freshman year, while Cromwell and Keith Wilkinson need to get better with expanded roles. Newcomers Kasey Cunningham, a redshirt freshman, and true freshman Mamadou Diarra both add depth. If the Trojans can repeat their conference-best effort at the defensive end, where opponents shot just 39 percent against them, they could be in the first division in this tough conference.
Washington Huskies (19-13, 8-10 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Justin Dentmon (10.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.2 spg)
Sr. G Ryan Appleby (10.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.2 apg)
So. F Quincy Pondexter (10.7 pg, 4.0 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Fr. F Matthew Bryan-Amaning
Jr. F Jon Brockman (14.2 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.1 apg)
Schedule Highlights: The season begins in the NIT Season Tip-Off, where the Huskies host New Jersey Tech and either Utah or High Point. Road games in the non-conference schedule include trips to Oklahoma State (Pac-10/Big 12 Series) and LSU. A four-game homestand in December features Pittsburgh. In Pac-10 play, they get a four-game homestand starting in late January, and later close out the regular season with three straight road games.
Outlook: With four double-digit scorers returning, offense won’t be a problem for the Huskies, although they did lead the conference in turnovers last season and will need to improve there. While Dentmon is the incumbent at the point, he should be pushed by freshman Venoy Overton. Appleby is the best shooter, with Stanford transfer Tim Morris, redshirt junior Joel Smith and sophomore Phil Nelson also among those who might see minutes at that spot. The latter three will get their chances early, as Appleby fractured his right thumb and will be out until around mid-December. Pondexter had a solid freshman season and will play on the wing, while Bryan-Amaning could see minutes there but is better at the power forward spot and freshman Justin Holiday is another possibility. Brockman is a warrior inside and should average a double-double this season, and he gets help from a healthy Joe Wolfinger and junior Artem Wallace. The Huskies led the conference in rebounding margin last season, but for a repeat of that to help them, they will need to improve at the defensive end, where opponents made over 45 percent of their shots last season, a figure that was even worse in Pac-10 play as teams made almost 48 percent.
California Golden Bears (16-17, 6-12 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
So. G Nicola Knezevic (redshirt)
So. G Patrick Christopher (5.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg)
So. F Ryan Anderson (16.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg)
Sr. F-C DeVon Hardin (10.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg in 11 games)
So. C Jordan Wilkes (redshirt)
Schedule Highlights: The Golden Bears hit the road just twice in non-conference play, and neither will be easy. They go to Nevada in late November, then play at Kansas State 11 days later. They host Missouri in the Pac-10/Big 12 Series, then later close out non-conference play when they host the Golden Bear Classic with Long Beach State, then either Bucknell or North Dakota State.
Outlook: Although they’re talented, the Golden Bears have just two seniors and much of their experience is in the frontcourt. Injuries have taken a bite out of them before the season even gets going, especially in a backcourt already thin on experience. Sophomore Jerome Randle might have had the inside track on the point guard spot, but he’ll miss about a month after undergoing a biopsy on his kidney in late October. Theo Robertson had hip surgery in April and likely won’t play until the start of 2008, and freshman forward Omondi Amoke had surgery for a vascular abnormality in his calf. On the plus side, Hardin is back and could be the conference’s top big man if he stays healthy, while Anderson will combine with him and Wilkes to form a front line that can compete with Stanford’s. Senior Eric Vierneisel and Duke transfer Jamal Boykin will be in the mix as well, with the latter potentially being a very nice addition. The backcourt has been thinned by injury, as Knezevic is left to go with Christopher in the backcourt early on, and there isn’t much depth or experience beyond those two. The Golden Bears must improve defensively if they are to rise in the standings, as opponents shot nearly 50 percent from the field against them last season.
Arizona State Sun Devils (8-22, 2-16 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Jamelle McMillan
So. G Christian Polk (12.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.9 apg)
Fr. G-F James Harden
Jr. F Jeff Pendergraph (12.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg)
So. C Eric Boateng (transfer from Duke)
Schedule Highlights: The Sun Devils open the season in the Maui Invitational, where they’ll play Illinois, then likely Duke in the second game. The only true road game in non-conference is at Nebraska in the Pac-10/Big 12 series, with the rest of the slate highlighted by Big West contender Cal Poly and Atlantic 10 favorite Xavier. Pac-10 play opens with a chance for them to get a nice start, as they play the first three at home.
Outlook: That the Sun Devils are picked ninth serves to illustrate how strong this conference is. Although they will be young, the Sun Devils don’t lack talent and have an excellent coach who will have them making forward strides, and their non-conference schedule could yield a good record heading into Pac-10 play. Pendergraph might be the best player no one knows about and could average a double-double, while Polk heads a good perimeter unit that will only get better with the addition of Harden and McMillan. Harden is the first McDonald’s All-American in the program’s history and should be an impact player right away. Sophomore Derek Glasser is a nice pass-first floor leader and has a chance to start, and Antwi Atuahene, the only senior on the roster, will also contribute in the backcourt. Boateng will give this team a boost inside and keep some pressure off Pendergraph, and he’ll need to since the Sun Devils don’t have much size. With the new additions, the Sun Devils shouldn’t finish last in scoring again this season, which is a good sign since their defense kept them in games last season.
Oregon State Beavers (11-21, 3-15 Pac-10)
Projected Starters:
So. G Josh Tarver (9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 spg)
Jr. G-F Jack McGillis (5.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg)
So. G-F Seth Tarver (2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg)
Sr. F Marcel Jones (15.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.5 spg)
Jr. C Roeland Schaftenaar (3.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Beavers open the season in the Top of the World Classic, where they play Colorado State in the first round. The remainder of non-conference play has three road games, highlighted by a trip to LSU. Notable among the remaining home games is Iowa State at the end of November. The non-conference schedule has plenty of winnable games for the Beavers to build some confidence going into Pac-10 play.
Outlook: The Beavers will be young as head coach Jay John fights for his job, as Jones’ return after declaring for the NBA Draft gives the team one senior on the roster. Jones struggled from long range last year, so the good scoring numbers he posted are a sign he’s more of an offensive threat and could bounce back to shoot it like he’s capable of this year. Josh Tarver is a steady young floor leader, while McGillis and Tarver will get competition from freshmen Calvin Haynes and Lathen Wallace for their spots. The frontcourt will get a boost in December from Kansas transfer C.J. Giles if he can keep his head on straight. Otherwise, the frontcourt is thin as far as proven talent goes. With the lack of proven scorers, the Beavers seem likely to finish near the bottom in scoring again, which means that improving on the conference’s worst defense is a must if they are to win games.
Conference Outlook
The Pac-10 shapes up as the best conference in the land this season with incredible depth. Any of the top eight teams could wind up in the upper division, and Arizona State could improve to be a postseason team as well although they will be young. Indeed, youth is the common theme with the teams picked at the bottom, not a lack of talent, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Arizona State or Oregon State pulled off a few home wins over a contending team along the way. This year’s Pac-10 title will surely be well-earned with what a team will have to go through to get there.
