Missouri Valley Conference 2007-08 Preview
by Neal Heston
The glass is half full
After unprecedented success the last few seasons, the Missouri Valley Conference will rely on a lot of new faces – both on the bench and the court – to continue its nice run. Twenty six players will occupy starting lineups for the first time in the Valley this winter, and five new coaches will pace the sidelines. Only four teams (Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Illinois State and Indiana State) return the majority of their starting roster. But don’t worry faithful Valley followers; every squad will return a great amount of experience, as they welcome back at least half of their top minute-eaters from last season.
Bottoms Up
Every team that finished in the Valley’s bottom division in 2006-07 replaced their head coach last spring, but thanks to these smart hires, they shouldn’t remain low too much longer. Keno Davis stepped in at Drake to take over the helm for his father, Dr. Tom Davis; Marty Simmons will lead the troops in Evansville; longtime successful assistant Tim Jankovich will take his second opportunity as a head coach as he takes over Illinois State; Kevin McKenna will attempt to bring his success as a Creighton assistant to Indiana State; and Wichita State welcomes an already established head coach in Gregg Marshall.
Keno Davis: Davis joined his father’s staff as an assistant at Drake in 2003 and has been poised to take over the helm since then. Prior to that, he served as an assistant to former Drake coach Gary Carner at Southeast Missouri State and an assistant to Bruce Pearl at Southern Indiana. Davis inherits a Drake squad coming off its most successful season in 20 years, but he will have his work cut out for him in 2007-08.
Marty Simmons: Though this winter will likely be a rough transition year for the Aces, success shouldn’t be too far off. Marty Simmons knows how it feels to make the postseason, as he was an assistant on the last Evansville team to qualify for the postseason (1999). His most recent stint as a head coach was extremely successful as he led Division II SIU-Edwardsville to 48 wins in two seasons.
Tim Jankovich: Don’t be too surprised if Jankovich, who was one of the most sought-after assistants in the nation, leads Illinois State to a postseason appearance this winter. In his last stint as a head coach at the University of North Texas, Jankovich took a team that finished 5-22 the previous season to within one game of the NCAA Tournament.
Kevin McKenna: Enemy has become friend as McKenna takes over the ranks at Indiana State. This former Creighton assistant has the privilege of taking over one of the more experienced teams in the MVC, but also the task of moving the Sycamores out of their longtime spot in the cellar. Good news for Indiana State: McKenna managed a 15-game improvement in his first season as head coach at Division II Nebraska-Omaha.
Gregg Marshall: Out of all MVC hires, Wichita State found the most experienced and established head coach in Gregg Marshall. Marshall spent the past nine seasons at Winthrop, guiding the team to its first NCAA Tournament in 1998 and then six more dances after that. He became the winningest coach in Winthrop history (194-83), averaging about 21.5 victories per season.
Five fearless predictions for 2007-08
1. Southern Illinois will win the regular season title. (It’s just a given the last several years.)
2. Missouri State will finally dance after so many heartbreaking misses.
3. Indiana State will climb out of its comfortable seat in the cellar – and possibly factor in the postseason race.
4. The eighth-place team will finish with an overall winning record. Ninth place won’t be too far under, either.
5. Despite returning just one starter, Creighton will still make the postseason.
How they’ll finish
1. Southern Illinois – Whether they return most of the lineup or bring in an entirely new cast, there is one given for the Salukis each season: they finish at the top. The fact that three starters come back make SIU a lock for the Valley title.
2. Missouri State – This will finally be the season that the Bears qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
3. Bradley – Only two starters return, but that’s OK when they’re named Jeremy Crouch and Daniel Ruffin. The Braves are a lock for the postseason again and will make a nice charge for the NCAA Tourney.
4. Northern Iowa – The Panthers return seven of their top nine players from last season, but two departures were two of the top three scorers (Brooks McKowen and Grant Stout) and one of the best rebounders (Stout). UNI should have itself set for an NIT appearance.
5. Creighton – The top three scorers are gone from last season, and just one starter returns, but the Bluejays should remain good enough to continue their postseason streak.
6. Illinois State – Four starters return for what could be this season’s surprise team.
7. Indiana State – No longer a cellar dweller, the Sycamores should actually be shooting for a winning record this winter.
8. Wichita State – Perhaps taking the biggest hit from departures is the Shockers, who will feel the hit in the standings this season.
9. Drake – The Bulldogs may have a tough time building on their most successful campaign since the 1986-87 season.
10. Evansville – Three of the top four scorers are gone from last winter, as well as the Aces’ top rebounder.
Preseason All-MVC Team
Randall Falker, Southern Illinois
Jeremy Crouch, Bradley
Daniel Ruffin, Bradley
Eric Coleman, Northern Iowa
Deven Mitchell, Missouri State
Player of the Year – Randall Falker, Southern Illinois
Touring the Valley
Southern Illinois Salukis
2006-07: 29-7 (15-3 MVC), No. 4 seed Sweet 16
2007-08 Prediction: First, MVC and NCAA Tournament
Notable games: Dec. 8 at Charlotte, Dec. 11 vs. Saint Mary’s, Dec. 18 at Western Michigan, Dec. 22 vs. Western Kentucky, Dec. 28 vs. Butler
There usually is some preseason debate as to who is going to hoist the Valley crown, but the Salukis make that so difficult right now. SIU returns three starters and seven of its top nine from a ridiculously good defense (56.2 points allowed per game). Scoring leader Jamaal Tatum will be missed, but the Salukis are poised to continue their run from last spring. They are locks for the Valley title and an NCAA berth. Shall the unthinkable collapse happen late in the season, though (look up last season’s Wichita State), SIU has the early opportunity to separate itself from other possible bubble teams with its non-conference slate.
Missouri State Bears
2006-07: 22-11 (12-6 MVC), NIT First Round
2007-08 Prediction: Second, MVC and NCAA Tournament
Notable games: Nov. 25 at Winthrop, Dec. 3 at Arkansas, Dec. 5 vs. UNC-Wilmington, Dec. 15 at Utah, Dec. 23 vs. Purdue and Iowa State (at Las Vegas, Nev.)
The look was evident on head coach Barry Hinson’s face last season as he was interviewed on CBS during the selection show. With only one region left to be unveiled, the disappointing look showed he knew that his MSU squad was once again going to get shorted out of an NCAA berth. MSU has basically been within one more win of the NCAA Tourney the last four seasons, but just hasn’t crossed that threshold.
Though sharpshooter Blake Ahearn, Tyler Chaney and Nathan Bilyeu departed from last season (a total of 35 PPG – or 47 percent of the scoring), the Bears do return a wealth of experience from their NIT squad last season. With seniors Deven Mitchell, Drew Richards, Dale Lamberth and Shane Laurie returning from a defense that lives on forcing turnovers, MSU is set for its first NCAA appearance since 1999.
Bradley Braves
2006-07: 22-13 (10-8 MVC), NIT Second Round
2007-08 Prediction: Third, MVC and NIT
Notable games: Nov. 14 vs. Iowa State, Nov. 23 vs. Iowa (at South Padre Island, Texas), Nov. 24 vs. Vanderbilt or Utah State (South Padre Island, Texas), Dec. 4 vs. Michigan State, Dec. 19 at Butler, Dec. 22 vs. VCU
Bradley arguably has the toughest non-conference schedule out of any MVC squad, but there is no reason to believe the Braves won’t be able to handle it successfully. Senior guards Jeremy Crouch and Daniel Ruffin will be vital parts determining how far Bradley goes in ’07-’08. They alone return nearly 27 points per game and will be looked at to lead a bench that includes sophomores Matt Salley, Andrew Warren and a freshman class that is top rated in the Valley.
Success will also depend on whether or not the Braves can have any big men step up on the boards. BU was dead last in rebounding margin (-6.8) last season. That, along with scoring defense (70.7 points allowed per game) was the Achilles heel that made the small difference in an NIT appearance and a possible NCAA berth.
University of Northern Iowa Panthers
2006-07: 18-13 (9-9 MVC)
2007-08 Prediction: Fourth, MVC and NIT
Notable games: Nov. 18 at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Nov. 27 at Iowa State, Dec. 5 vs. Iowa, Dec. 22 vs. Nevada
UNI enters the season as one of the mysterious teams in the conference. With Grant Stout and Brooks McKowen taking more than one-third of the team’s scoring away with them (as well as a great deal of rebounds), the Panthers will need some key bench assets from last year to step up. Senior guard Jared Josten and junior Travis Brown will need to contribute slightly more than the eight points per game they racked up last season, and sophomore giant Jordan Eglseder will have tough shoes to fill in the rebounding department.
Senior center Eric Coleman should have some pressure taken off of him with Stout gone, as teams won’t have to prepare as much to face that fearsome duo, but victories for UNI will depend on holding onto the ball. The Panthers were by far the worst in the MVC for turnover margin, and you can’t just give the ball away when there are the Missouri States and Southern Illinois taking it from you already.
Creighton Bluejays
2006-07: 22-11 (13-5 MVC), No. 10 Seed, lost in NCAA first round to Nevada
2007-08 Prediction: Fifth, MVC and NIT
Notable games: Nov. 9 vs. DePaul, Nov. 24 vs. Nebraska, Dec. 1 at Drexel
Korver is back – Kaleb Korver that is. Creighton welcomes the latest of the Korver brothers along with five other freshman. The Bluejays are young this year and lost four starters (only forward Dane Watts returns), which usually sets the stage for disaster. But Dana Altman knows how to work with that handicap. He led a Creighton team facing a similar situation to the NCAA Tourney three years ago.
Don’t expect an NCAA berth, because nearly three-fourths of the scoring offense left with Nate Funk, Anthony Tolliver, Nick Porter and Isacc Miles. However, the Bluejays still have the talent and certainly the coaching to keep their postseason boat floating.
Illinois State Redbirds
2006-07: 15-16 (6-12 MVC)
2007-08 Prediction: Sixth, MVC
Notable games: Nov. 23 vs. Indiana, Dec. 8 vs. Cincinnati
Tim Jankovich has consistently been surrounded by success. He spent the past four seasons as an assistant at Kansas (enough said) and served the same role for one year at Illinois under Bill Self. Eighteen current or former NBA players have also received his guidance. With that told, don’t be surprised to see the Redbirds, who already return the most starters of any MVC team, reach as high as fourth place after last year’s disappointing finish.
All four returning starters averaged at least nine points per game (seniors Levi Dyer, Boo Richardson, Anthony Slack and sophomore Osiris Eldridge), and senior guard Dominitrix Johnson chipped in another 8.3 per contest. A top or bottom half finish in the conference will be determined by depth and free throw shooting (last in the Valley at 64.5 percent). Assuming Johnson moves into the starting role, no key bench contributors return from last winter.
Indiana State Sycamores
2006-07: 13-18 (5-13 MVC)
2007-08 Prediction: Seventh, MVC
Notable games: Nov. 14 at Butler, Dec. 1 at Purdue, Dec. 4 at Miami (Ohio)
Kevin McKenna inherits a team that returns four starters and four key bench players, but the question is how much experience will play a factor for a team that managed just five conference wins last season while treading the bottom of the league in points per game (10th at 61.5), rebounding margin (9th) and turnover margin (9th).
The starting lineup included three underclassmen last year and is still young this season, but the cellar days should be finished. Gabriel Moore led the team with 11.5 points per game last season, and Marico Stinson, Cole Holmstrom and Jay Tunnell all tacked on at least another nine points per game each. If the Sycamores can control the ball better and find a way to get Tunnell and junior forward Adam Arnold to establish more of a presence on the boards, then the Sycamores will be a force in the MVC race.
Wichita State Shockers
2006-07: 17-14 (8-10 MVC)
2007-08 Prediction: Eighth, MVC
Notable games: Nov. 29 at Appalachian State, Dec. 19 vs. LSU, Dec. 22 vs. UAB
Last season could be divided into four even quarters for Wichita State. And as any team will say, winning doesn’t come easy when only half of the game is played well. The Shockers stormed out to a 9-0 start last winter, which included road wins against several highly ranked teams. The college basketball world had a feeling the Sweet 16 appearance from the previous season would be duplicated. Then the tailspin began that saw WSU drop six of its next seven. Just as everyone jumped off the bandwagon, the Shockers reeled off a 7-3 stretch to get back into postseason conversations, but again stumbled to end the season on a five-game losing streak. End result: No postseason; disappointing campaign.
The good news is that the bulk of the team – and coaching staff – who experienced last year’s disappointment won’t return. Unfortunately, that’s also the bad news. Every team except Drake and Evansville will bring back more of their starters or top performers from last year than Wichita State. Former Winthrop head coach Gregg Marshall will have WSU back to prominence very soon, but with the top scorer gone and senior guard P.J. Couisnard being the only returning starter, this may be another long season in Kansas.
Drake Bulldogs
2006-07: 17-15 (6-12 MVC)
2007-08 Prediction: Ninth, MVC
Notable games: Dec. 5 vs. Iowa State, Dec. 14 at Iowa, Jan. 26 vs. Northern Iowa, Feb. 16 at Northern Iowa
With the top two scorers lost from last season (Ajay Calvin and Nick Grant), Drake may have a difficult time building off of last season’s success. The Bulldogs enjoyed their most successful campaign since 1986-87, racking up 17 wins, earning a winning season and the mythical state of Iowa championship (by defeating Iowa for the first time in 27 attempts, Iowa State and Northern Iowa twice).
Senior forward Klayton Korver and sophomore guard Josh Young both return and will try to keep the ‘Dogs moving up, but it will be tough. With Calvin, Grant, Al Stewart and Chris Bryant all gone, Drake lost 42 of its MVC-best 75 points per game, and its only rebounder who managed more than 4 RPG. Senior Leonard Houston and junior Jonathan Cox will need to contribute more if Drake is to maintain last year’s pace.
Evansville Aces
2006-07: 14-17 (6-12 MVC)
2007-08 Prediction: Tenth, MVC
Notable games: Nov. 17 vs. Butler, Dec. 8 vs. Austin Peay
Evansville hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1999, but its new head coach was a part of that experience. Marty Simmons was an assistant at UE from 1990 to 2002 and was a component of the Aces’ three NCAA runs through the 1990s. Seven consecutive losing seasons have occurred since the last dance, and last year was enough to force former coach Steve Merfield to resign. Simmons will have his work cut out for him in Year 1 of the tenure.
Last year’s top scorer (Matt Webster, 16.9 PPG) and top two rebounders (Webster and Bradley Strickland) are both gone, and junior guard Jason Holsinger is the only player to bring back considerable experience. Junior forward Shy Ely, sophomore guard Darin Granger and sophomore forward Jay Couisnard will all need to step up in the starting lineup.
