Atlantic Coast Conference Notebook
As conference play reaches the one-quarter mark, the ACC is off to a chaotic start. More than half of the conference is tied for fourth or within a game of the upper tier. Just about every team has an inexplicable loss to scar its résumé. At this point, only Duke and North Carolina should feel safe about their NCAA Tournament prospects.
When the season started, North Carolina State appeared to be the third-best team in the conference. The Wolfpack had four returning starters, better depth and a strong recruiting class. However, the Wolfpack are a disappointment so far at 12-5 with losses to New Orleans and East Carolina and blowouts at North Carolina and Clemson.
Although North Carolina State appeared stronger entering this season, the team did not have anyone ready to fill point guard Engin Atsur’s shoes. After looking at the Wolfpack’s offensive efficiency statistics, Atsur’s graduation has clearly left this team stumbling on offense. According to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings, the Wolfpack finished last season with the No. 46 most efficient offense among 336 Division I teams. In 100 possessions, the Wolfpack would score 113.4 points, which was tied for eighth in the ACC.
This season is a different story. Without Atsur leading the offense, the Wolfpack are No. 153 in offensive efficiency. The team would score 102.3 points in 100 possessions, which is an 11.1 point drop compared with last season. The Wolfpack have plummeted to the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency.
Sophomore point Farnold Degand is out for the season with a torn ACL, but he did not played consistently when he was in the lineup. He averaged 2.9 assists and 1.9 turnovers per game. His backup, freshman Javier Gonzalez, is even more turnover prone, averaging 1.1 assists and 1.5 turnovers per game. Neither player is a scoring threat, combining to average 8.8 points per game.
Coach Sidney Lowe, North Carolina State’s point guard on the 1983 championship team, needs Gonzalez to make major strides or someone else to step up in the second half of this season or else the Wolfpack’s offense will continue to languish and the team will miss the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive season.
Team Updates
Duke Blue Devils (15-1, 3-0)
After North Carolina’s loss to Maryland, Duke is atop the ACC. The Blue Devils are playing vintage Duke basketball – fast-paced, high intensity, high-flying. Although Duke does not have any regular contributor taller than 6-8, the Blue Devils are dominating at both ends of the court. The only loss this season was a one-point, neutral court game against Pittsburgh. If Duke maintains this pace, the Blue Devils will return to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed and ACC champion.
Up Next:
Jan. 24 at Virginia Tech
Jan. 27 at Maryland
Jan. 31 vs. North Carolina State
Feb. 2 vs. Miami
North Carolina Tar Heels (18-1, 3-0)
Entering last week, media pundits were seriously discussing whether North Carolina could run the table and finish with an undefeated regular season. Maryland ended that talk with an 82-80 victory in Chapel Hill. One loss is not a reason to sound the alarm, but the Tar Heels need to find an answer to their defensive concerns. Coach Roy Williams relies on a high-octane tempo that is one of the fastest in the nation. However, North Carolina allows teams to shoot well. If the Tar Heels cannot force a lot of turnovers or hit shots consistently, opponents have an opportunity to knock off North Carolina. The Tar Heels have a good test this week against Miami, which holds opponents to 62.8 points per game. Despite the defensive concerns, North Carolina should remain at the top of the conference and battle Duke for the ACC title. A No. 1 seed is likely at stake.
Up Next:
Jan. 23 at Miami
Jan. 31 vs. Boston College
Feb. 3 at Florida State
Boston College Eagles (12-5, 3-1)
Eagles fans are learning that life without Jared Dudley is unpredictable. In the past few weeks, Boston College has obliterated Wake Forest and beat a ranked Miami squad while also losing by 25 to Kansas, by 18 at Virginia and by six at home against Robert Morris. Boston College has started conference play quickly with a 3-1 record, but the Eagles probably need to finish with at least 10 wins to have a legitimate shot at an NCAA Tournament bid. The best wins this season are Rhode Island and Maryland. Junior guard Tyrese Rice continues to carry the team as one of the ACC’s best players. He averages 19.6 points, 5.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game.
Up Next:
Jan. 26 vs. Virginia Tech
Jan. 31 at North Carolina
Feb. 2 at Clemson
Clemson Tigers (14-4, 2-2)
The Tigers failed its two biggest tests of the season against North Carolina and Duke, although Clemson played well against the Tar Heels, who needed a last-second three-pointer to escape Littlejohn Coliseum with the win. Despite those defeats and a lackluster effort in a 10-point home loss to Charlotte, the Tigers look like the No. 3 team in the ACC. The team’s non-conference schedule lacks significant accomplishments, with the best win coming at Mississippi State, which is ranked No. 75 in the RPI. The Tigers enter a mid-season crossroads with winnable games against Wake Forest, Miami, Boston College and Virginia. Clemson needs to win all four to solidify an NCAA Tournament bid. The Tigers play four of their final six games on the road, and they don’t want to put themselves in a situation in which they need to win a handful of those road games.
Up Next:
Jan. 22 vs. Wake Forest
Jan. 27 at Miami
Feb. 2 vs. Boston College
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (12-5, 2-2)
The Demon Deacons are playing better than many people thought they would following the death of coach Skip Prosser last summer. Coach Dino Gaudio has Wake Forest playing hard every game. The Demon Deacons don’t have any spectacular wins so far this season. The best non-conference victory is against BYU, which is No. 74 in the RPI. Like several other ACC teams, Wake Forest needs to finish with at least 10 or 11 conference wins to receive serious NCAA Tournament consideration. But Gaudio and the Demon Deacons deserve credit for remaining competitive. Wake Forest has a candidate for ACC Rookie of the Year in forward James Johnson. The freshman averages 15.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. With no seniors on this team, Wake Forest is probably a year away from returning to the ACC’s top tier.
Up Next:
Jan. 22 at Clemson
Jan. 29 vs. Miami
Feb. 3 at North Carolina State
Maryland Terrapins (12-7, 2-2)
The Terrapins picked up the biggest win of the season by an ACC team when they beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill. It will keep Maryland in the NCAA Tournament conversation for a few more weeks. But the Terrapins have a long way to go to make committee members forget a three-game home losing streak against Boston College, Ohio and American. Maryland’s best non-conference win is against Charlotte, ranked No. 86 in the RPI, so the Terrapins need to keep winning big conference games. Senior forwards Bambale Osby and James Gist are the emotional and physical leaders of this team. They lead this young team at both ends of the court, combining to average 25.8 points, 14.3 rebounds and 4.7 blocks per game. If Maryland’s young backcourt matures around Osby and Gist, Maryland might continue to make noise in the ACC.
Up Next:
Jan. 27 vs. Duke
Jan. 30 vs. Virginia
Feb. 2 at Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech Hokies (11-7, 2-2)
Virginia Tech has played inconsistently this season, with ACC wins against Maryland and Virginia and losses to Richmond and Old Dominion. The best non-conference win is against UNC-Asheville, which will not impress selection committee members. Virginia Tech must get to 20 wins to even begin to hope for an NCAA Tournament bid, which would mean a 10-win conference season and a run in the ACC Tournament. That task will be more difficult with freshman Jeff Allen suspended for the next two games. Allen is second on the Hokies in scoring and leads the team in rebounding, averaging 12.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Allen elbowed an official after fouling out against Georgia Tech Saturday.
Up Next:
Jan. 24 vs. Duke
Jan. 26 at Boston College
Jan. 29 vs. Florida State
Feb. 2 vs. Virginia
Miami Hurricanes (14-3, 1-2)
The Hurricanes continue to appear in the polls on the strength of an 11-0 start against a soft non-conference schedule. Miami played the second easiest non-conference slate in the ACC. Losses at Boston College and North Carolina State are an indictment of that soft schedule and could send this team into a tailspin. Miami has a tough slate ahead with games against North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke. If the Hurricanes lose three of those, they will have lost five of six games and could be nearly out of NCAA Tournament consideration. Miami’s strength is its backcourt duo of junior guard Jack McClinton and sophomore guard James Dews. The two combine to average 27.9 points per game. They both shoot better than 43 percent from three-point range.
Up Next:
Jan. 23 vs. North Carolina
Jan. 27 vs. Clemson
Jan. 29 at Wake Forest
Feb. 2 at Duke
North Carolina State Wolfpack (12-5, 1-2)
As mentioned earlier, North Carolina State is off to an inconsistent start. Despite the troubles, North Carolina State has good wins against Villanova and Seton Hall, both away from the RBC Center. The Wolfpack are still in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid and have three games in the next two weeks against teams that are also in the middle of the pack. North Carolina State is 1-4 in true road games and needs to improve that mark to rise to preseason expectations.
Up Next:
Jan. 23 vs. Georgia Tech
Jan. 26 at Florida State
Jan. 31 at Duke
Feb. 3 vs. Wake Forest
Virginia Cavaliers (11-5, 1-2)
Virginia has an ACC Player of the Year candidate in senior point guard Sean Singletary, who is averaging 18.9 points, 6.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game in addition to shooting 41.3 percent from three-point range. Virginia’s problem is that it relies heavily on three-point shooting and does not get consistent production from other players. The team stepped up in the desert to beat Arizona, which should remain an impressive win on the résumé. However, the Cavaliers don’t have much else to brag about. Virginia needs to win some ACC road games to come close to an NCAA Tournament bid. Games against Florida State, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in the next two weeks are good opportunities.
Up Next:
Jan. 23 at Florida State
Jan. 27 vs. Georgia Tech
Jan. 30 at Maryland
Feb. 2 at Virginia Tech
Florida State Seminoles (12-7, 1-3)
After a strong start to the season, Florida State has hit a rut, losing three consecutive ACC games to fall to 1-3 in the conference. The Seminoles have struggled offensively, putting up only 57 points against Duke and Wake Forest. Florida State must quickly turn around its slow start in conference play to remain in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid. Despite a strong strength of schedule, Florida State’s best win is against Florida, ranked No. 70 in the RPI. The win against the Gators will sound good because they’re the two-time defending national champions, but beating Florida this season is far less impressive than it would have been the past two years. With three home games in the next two weeks, Seminole fans will quickly find out whether their team can end a 10-year NCAA Tournament dry spell.
Up Next:
Jan. 23 vs. Virginia
Jan. 26 vs. North Carolina State
Jan. 29 at Virginia Tech
Feb. 3 vs. North Carolina
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-9, 1-3)
Georgia Tech has played the most difficult schedule in the ACC, and the results are an 8-9 record after four conference games. The Yellow Jackets have remained close in all of their games, losing only one game by more than 10 points. However, close losses won’t get your team into the NCAA Tournament. Georgia Tech needs to make a move immediately if the Yellow Jackets want to have any hopes for post-season play. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech has five road games in its next six games. If the Yellow Jackets can improve their porous defense, they should start winning close games and move toward the middle of the ACC pack.
Up Next:
Jan. 23 at North Carolina State
Jan. 27 at Virginia
Feb. 2 vs. Maryland
