Crystal Basketball

NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball

by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos

Feb. 8, 2008

The pursuit of perfection is the ultimate chase in sports, as it is in all walks of life. The New England Patriots came oh-so-close to a perfect season this year, until the zero in the loss column suddenly and shockingly became a one Feb. 3. In college basketball, where a title team plays approximately twice as many games as the 19 that New England played this year, an undefeated season is even more unlikely.

Don’t tell that to the Memphis Tigers. John Calipari’s squad is the only team yet to lose this season, and the Tigers’ weak Conference USA schedule has Memphians thinking perfection. If Memphis continues to beat up conference foes — eight regular-season games remain plus the Conference USA Tournament to be held at Memphis’ home, the FedEx Forum — and defeats in-state rival Tennessee in its lone remaining non-conference game, then the pressure to continue the dream season will increase exponentially by round come NCAA Tournament time. By the way, the last undefeated college hoops team was the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, coached by the recently resigned Bob Knight.

Perfection is also the goal for Hoopville fortunetellers Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos. Their Crystal Basketballs are heating up and sending them many messages these days, as the games rapidly count down until Selection Sunday March 16. In their second go-around this season, they got the message that despite greater agreement on the field, it will never be easy to finalize the last at-large bids.

After their first attempt produced a variation in five at-large bids, Hauptman and Protos see a more similar field. Hauptman gives the nod to Mississippi State, Illinois State and BYU, while Protos picks Syracuse, Creighton and North Carolina State instead. Although the Atlantic 10 continues to fare well with Hauptman and Protos each awarding three bids to the conference, Massachusetts is on the outside looking in.

The Minutemen have a strong case with a No. 28 RPI and No. 18 strength of schedule. However, the selection committee has snubbed at least one RPI top 30 team for each of the past two seasons — Air Force last year and Missouri State and Hofstra two years ago. Massachusetts seems like a prime candidate to have its bubble burst because the team lacks big wins. The only RPI top 50 victories are against Syracuse and Dayton. The win against the Flyers came when Dayton was missing two of its top scorers. The Houston victory is also solid, but losses to Northern Iowa, IUPUI and St. Louis — even though they are all road losses — will hurt. And a 3-4 conference record as of Feb. 8 doesn’t help the cause.

With Massachusetts out, find out who Hauptman and Protos did see in the field.

Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope	Protos’ Prognostications
Memphis Kansas Duke UCLA	Memphis Duke Kansas UCLA
North Carolina Tennessee Georgetown Michigan State	Tennessee North Carolina Georgetown Xavier
Stanford Wisconsin Texas Pittsburgh	Wisconsin Texas Drake Stanford
Vanderbilt Connecticut Kansas State Drake	Michigan State Arizona St. Mary’s Connecticut
Arizona Xavier Indiana Washington State	Kansas State Butler Louisville Pittsburgh
Clemson Dayton Florida Butler	Washington State Vanderbilt Clemson Marquette
Louisville Baylor St. Mary’s Texas A&M	Indiana Purdue Notre Dame Baylor
Notre Dame USC Marquette Arkansas	Texas A&M Ohio State Mississippi USC
Ohio State Oklahoma Maryland Mississippi State	Rhode Island Gonzaga Arkansas Dayton
Gonzaga UNLV Purdue West Virginia	Maryland Oklahoma West Virginia Florida
Rhode Island Mississippi Illinois State Oregon	South Alabama George Mason BYU Davidson
George Mason BYU Davidson VCU	VCU Oregon Creighton Syracuse
Kent State South Alabama Oral Roberts Utah State	North Carolina State Kent State Oral Roberts Utah State
UNC Asheville Stephen F. Austin Cal State Northridge Lafayette	UNC Asheville Cornell Rider Cal State Northridge
Rider Hampton Portland State Austin Peay	Maryland Baltimore Co. Austin Peay Lafayette Portland State
Cornell Wagner Maryland Baltimore Co. Jacksonville Alabama State	Lamar Morgan State Jacksonville Wagner Alabama State
Last 4 In: Illinois State Oregon BYU VCU	Last 4 In: Oregon Creighton Syracuse North Carolina State
Last 4 Out: Massachusetts Syracuse Creighton Arizona State	Last 4 Out: Massachusetts Illinois State Saint Joseph’s UNLV
Shooting Stars: Connecticut Duke Kansas State Stanford	Shooting Stars: Connecticut Duke Louisville Stanford
Sinking Ships: Oregon Washington State Oklahoma Mississippi	Sinking Ships: Massachusetts Mississippi Oregon Dayton
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 7 Big 12: 6 Pac-10: 6 SEC: 6 Big Ten: 5 ACC: 4 Atlantic 10: 3 Colonial: 2 Missouri Valley: 3 Mountain West: 2 West Coast: 2 20 one-bid conferences	Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big 12: 6 Pac-10: 6 ACC: 5 Big Ten: 5 SEC: 5 Atlantic 10: 3 Colonial: 2 Missouri Valley: 2 West Coast: 2 21 one-bid conferences

Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail us your comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your own NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout the next two months, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. The calendar reads February. In this shortened month, Cinderella has less time to pick out her dancing slippers.