Crystal Basketball

NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball

by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos

Feb. 22, 2008

At this time last season, Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos applied the Law of Syllogism to the college basketball RPI rankings to prove that the last would be first — RPI-worst Northern Colorado could defeat RPI-best UCLA. However, for the manipulation of statistics to work, the worst team must win at least one game and the best team must lose at least one game. As of Feb. 22, neither is true.

Memphis, the consensus No. 1 seed for Hauptman and Protos, will strive to clear its last major hurdle to an undefeated regular season against Tennessee. Meanwhile, New Jersey IT is one game away from finishing 0-29. A trip to Utah Valley State in coach Jim Casciano’s final game is the Highlanders’ last stand. Both feats are astounding, in equal and opposite styles.

Of course, last season’s NCAA Tournament demonstrated that the best teams did come first. The worst seed in the Elite Eight was No. 3 Oregon. Every team seeded Nos. 1-5 won in the first round. The only two noteworthy first-round upsets were delivered by hot teams that won their automatic bids from mid-major conferences. No. 11 Winthrop took out No. 6 Notre Dame, while No. 11 VCU stunned coach Mike Krzyzewski and No. 6 Duke. The lack of a single victory by bubble teams seeded No. 11 or 12 demonstrated their weakness. We are heading toward a similar scenario this season.

Hauptman and Protos vary significantly on the bubble teams that make the field. And the differences extend as high as the No. 8 line. Hauptman has Mississippi State and Florida as No. 8 seeds, but Protos puts both teams outside the field. Meanwhile, Protos gives Arizona State the nod as a No. 10 seed, while Hauptman relegates the Sun Devils to the NIT. In addition to those contrasts, Hauptman picks Illinois State, Cincinnati, Wake Forest and Southern Illinois; Protos takes Saint Joseph’s, West Virginia, Syracuse, Dayton and Mississippi.

One of the impending discussions on Selection Sunday is the competition between the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley for bids. Hauptman likes the MVC to put three teams in the field to the A-10’s two. Protos disagrees, with the A-10 getting four bids to the MVC’s one. The Atlantic 10 holds a slight edge in overall RPI at No. 7 compared with the Missouri Valley’s No. 8 rank. Illinois State has more wins than Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph’s and Dayton but has not beat an RPI top 50 opponent. However, those four A-10 teams have collectively beat 12 top 50 teams. Meanwhile, Southern Illinois has three more losses than any of the A-10 bubble teams, but the Salukis have the No. 17 toughest schedule and three top 50 victories. If the selection committee members debate those six teams as much as Hauptman and Protos did, they will have their hands full — without even considering the major conference bubble squads.

Here’s the rest of the field, according to Hauptman and Protos. Check next Friday to see how their picks continue to evolve.

Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope	Protos’ Prognostications
Memphis Tennessee North Carolina Kansas	Memphis Tennessee Kansas North Carolina
Duke UCLA Texas Georgetown	Duke Texas UCLA Louisville
Wisconsin Connecticut Stanford Xavier	Xavier Connecticut Georgetown Wisconsin
Vanderbilt Indiana Louisville Michigan State	Butler Stanford Notre Dame Indiana
Notre Dame Washington State Kansas State Drake	Purdue Marquette St. Mary’s Washington State
Pittsburgh Clemson Purdue Butler	Kansas State Michigan State Vanderbilt BYU
BYU Marquette Texas A&M Arizona	Pittsburgh Clemson Drake Gonzaga
USC Mississippi State St. Mary’s Florida	Texas A&M Oklahoma Arkansas USC
Oklahoma Maryland Arkansas UNLV	Ohio State Arizona Maryland Davidson
Gonzaga Baylor Ohio State Miami	UNLV Baylor Arizona State Miami
Massachusetts Illinois State Cincinnati Wake Forest	Saint Joseph’s Oregon West Virginia Syracuse
Kent State Southern Illinois Oregon Davidson	Massachusetts Dayton Mississippi South Alabama
VCU South Alabama Oral Roberts Winthrop	VCU Kent State Oral Roberts Boise State
Boise State Cal State Northridge Stephen F. Austin Cornell	Cornell American UMBC Cal State Northridge
Portland State UMBC Siena Austin Peay	Niagara Winthrop Belmont Lamar
American Belmont Wagner Hampton Alabama State	Austin Peay Portland State Robert Morris Morgan State Alabama State
Last 4 In: Cincinnati Wake Forest Southern Illinois Oregon	Last 4 In: Syracuse Massachusetts Dayton Mississippi
Last 4 Out: West Virginia Mississippi Dayton Rhode Island	Last 4 Out: Rhode Island Wake Forest Mississippi State Southern Illinois
Shooting Stars: Connecticut Texas Wake Forest BYU	Shooting Stars: Louisville BYU Indiana Texas
Sinking Ships: Duke Pittsburgh Arizona Michigan State	Sinking Ships: Florida Rhode Island Dayton Mississippi
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 7 ACC: 6 Big 12: 6 Pac-10: 6 Big Ten: 5 SEC: 5 Missouri Valley: 3 Atlantic 10: 2 Mountain West: 2 West Coast: 2 21 one-bid conferences	Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Pac-10: 7 Big 12: 6 ACC: 5 Big Ten: 5 Atlantic 10: 4 SEC: 4 Mountain West: 2 West Coast: 2 22 one-bid conferences

Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail us your comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your own NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout the next month, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. Get ready to flip your calendar to March. The Madness starts.