Atlantic 10’s Developing Teams Hurt NCAA Chances
Back in January, many were projecting the Atlantic 10 to get at least four and possibly five bids to the NCAA Tournament. Some thought six would be possible if a few things fell right. Like many projections, they were based on most of the teams generally continuing what they had shown up to that point. Things always change, and the outlook come Selection Sunday for the Atlantic 10 is not immune from that.
As we reach the end of February, the conference looks more and more like it might be hard-pressed to get more than two unless Xavier, the only team that can be considered a lock, loses in the Atlantic 10 Tournament – and not necessarily in the title game. The chances of that happening are very slim since the Musketeers are a sleeper Final Four contender and playing about as well as anyone right now.
The big reason is the emergence of several teams into the top of the standings after Xavier and second-place Saint Joseph’s. The Hawks are sure to be in play if they continue what they have shown so far, but after that it gets to be a big question mark. The next best contenders for at-large bids have been thought to be UMass, Dayton, Rhode Island and Charlotte, but each has a significant amount of work to do or is basically eliminated from at-large contention. Part of what they must do is bypass three teams that are tied behind Saint Joseph’s in the standings.
While some who politick for bids will say the tried-and-true line of how this is a sign of the conference’s depth and that even the teams further down the standings are good teams, that argument won’t hold water when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. The reality is that some of the teams knocking off the projected NCAA Tournament teams don’t have the same body of work, and the 65-team field is not selected based on potential. Indeed, the next three teams behind Saint Joseph’s don’t really have a chance at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
For one, there is Temple. The Owls have shown well in the second year of Fran Dunphy’s tenure, as they are 8-5 and have been aided by a tough non-conference schedule. Quality wins there are lacking, but they have knocked off conference foes Xavier, Charlotte, UMass and Rhode Island, the latter two in overtime. They continue to ride the excellent backcourt play of Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale.
There is also Richmond. The Spiders were thought to be at least a year away from possibly contending, but they are currently in the mix for third place at 8-5 in the Atlantic 10. Along the way, they have won against Dayton and swept Charlotte. They have a good young nucleus and certainly look better than advertised.
Lastly, there is La Salle. John Giannini’s team has a lot of youth and is fresh off a season where they finished in last place, but his young players appear to be coming around. The young Explorers are 8-5 in Atlantic 10 play and are riding a five-game winning streak after winning at Fordham on Wednesday. Recently, they won at Saint Joseph’s and then knocked off Dayton at home. Rhode Island and UMass are still ahead on their schedule, the latter a road game.
Saint Louis, while behind others in the standings, has made a couple of their wins count. While the Billikens have struggled mightily at times this season, they have knocked off Rhode Island and UMass at home.
In recent weeks, a few spoiler losses have occurred with other schools as well. In the middle of February, Fordham knocked off UMass and Charlotte three days apart. Duquesne beat Saint Joseph’s (although the Hawks were without Ahmad Nivins) and won at Dayton a week later.
While some of the key losses come with asterisks of some sort – Dayton’s personnel losses due to injury are well-documented – teams still need to win games if they are NCAA Tournament-worthy. No matter how many injuries a team may have, if they are to get to the NCAA Tournament, they must put together a good record. So while Dayton has been without star freshman Chris Wright for much of Atlantic 10 play, the Flyers still have had to win games but have not done so.
It’s unfortunate, considering the non-conference resume to the Flyers have, as their 5-8 record in Atlantic 10 play is the primary knock on them. The Flyers’ lone non-conference loss was at George Mason, as they have wins at Louisville and at home against Pittsburgh, and their win over American at home might look even better if the Eagles win the Patriot League. But that would all be moot if the Flyers don’t start winning, as they are currently in a three-way tie for 11th place in the conference. That means they might struggle just to make the Atlantic 10 Tournament, given that their final three games are at Fordham, at St. Bonaventure and at home against Saint Joseph’s.
Wednesday night brought more carnage to the at-large contenders, as George Washington beat Rhode Island by 17. With their fifth straight loss, the Rams are now 6-8 in Atlantic 10 play, and at best they can finish 8-8.
UMass is 7-6 and swept Rhode Island, and they have a couple of good non-conference wins that give them good computer numbers. But the Minutemen were swept by Saint Joseph’s, so they likely have some work to do in the last week and a half of the regular season and the conference tournament.
Barring a sudden winning streak by a few teams, the Atlantic 10 now looks to be at most a three-bid conference, and even that may be a stretch. That’s certainly not what many projected over a month ago.
