NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
Feb. 29, 2008
The Interstate 95 corridor in the Northeast connects several major metropolitan centers, which can claim to be the country’s political and economic nucleus. In the world of college basketball, the Interstate 40 corridor in the South connects several major programs, which hope to prove in March that they are the hub of basketball supremacy.
Within a few miles of I-40, Memphis, Tennessee, North Carolina and Duke have been playing top-notch basketball. All four schools are in the mix for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, though at least one of those schools will probably lose out to the likes of Texas, UCLA or Kansas. For the record, Texas is six hours from one of the few highways that crosses the entire country; Kansas is less than five hours; and UCLA is a mere two hours from I-40’s western endpoint in Barstow, Calif.
Although Tennessee and North Carolina are brethren as the only states I-40 passes through east of the Mississippi, the two are going head to head for the title of college basketball’s most dominant state. In addition to the Tigers and Volunteers, Tennessee has Vanderbilt in the top 25. Austin Peay (in Clarksville), Belmont (in Nashville) and Chattanooga are legitimate contenders for conference championships. Meanwhile, the Tar Heel state has Davidson (near Charlotte) and UNC-Asheville in play for NCAA Tournament appearances. North Carolina has a slew of strong teams that are on the bubble or potential conference tournament spoilers, especially Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Charlotte and UNC-Wilmington.
Given Vanderbilt’s contribution to the strength at the top, Tennessee gets the nod as the top basketball state. But the NCAA Tournament will be the best stage — in terms of bids and length of stay — to judge which state is king. Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos disagree on which state will claim the overall No. 1 seed. Hauptman awards the top spot to North Carolina while Protos has Memphis, Tennessee and Texas ahead of the Tar Heels.
In addition to slight variance at the top, Hauptman and Protos continue to vary widely at the bottom. For example, Hauptman has Maryland as a No. 7 seed, while Protos sees the Terrapins as one of the first teams to miss the field. On the other hand, Protos likes Arizona State to earn a No. 9 seed, but Hauptman thinks the Sun Devils are NIT-bound. Three weeks remain before Selection Sunday, and all these bubble teams need to make a move to solidify a bid.
Here’s the rest of the field, as envisioned by Hauptman and Protos. Check here next week to see how their predictions change.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tennessee Memphis Texas |
Memphis Tennessee Texas North Carolina |
 UCLA Duke Kansas Georgetown |
Duke UCLA Louisville Kansas |
 Wisconsin Xavier Vanderbilt Stanford |
Xavier Wisconsin Georgetown Connecticut |
 Indiana Connecticut Washington State Louisville |
Vanderbilt Stanford Marquette Notre Dame |
 Clemson Notre Dame Kansas State Purdue |
Indiana Purdue Michigan State Butler |
 Drake Marquette Michigan State USC |
Washington State Pittsburgh Clemson USC |
 BYU Maryland Butler Mississippi State |
Kansas State St. Mary’s Gonzaga Texas A&M |
 Pittsburgh Florida Baylor Arizona |
Arizona Drake BYU Miami |
 Texas A&M Miami Kent State UNLV |
Baylor UNLV Arizona State Kentucky |
 St. Mary’s Ohio State Arkansas Gonzaga |
Oklahoma West Virginia Massachusetts Mississippi State |
 Illinois State Oklahoma Massachusetts West Virginia |
Davidson Villanova Kent State Southern Illinois |
 Southern Illinois Wake Forest Kentucky VCU |
South Alabama New Mexico VCU Illinois State |
 Davidson South Alabama Stephen F. Austin Oral Roberts |
Houston Dayton Oral Roberts Boise State |
 Boise State Winthrop Cornell Cal State Northridge |
Cornell Cal State Northridge UMBC Winthrop |
 Portland State UMBC Siena Austin Peay |
Austin Peay Belmont Rider Lamar |
 American Belmont Robert Morris Morgan State Alabama State |
Robert Morris Portland State Morgan State Navy Alabama State |
 Last 4 In:West Virginia Southern Illinois Wake Forest Kentucky |
Last 4 In: New Mexico Illinois State Houston Dayton |
| First 4 Out: Virginia Tech Villanova Arizona State UAB |
First 4 Out: UAB Florida Maryland Saint Joseph’s |
| Shooting Stars: USC Vanderbilt Kentucky Texas |
Shooting Stars: Wisconsin Vanderbilt Kentucky Kent State |
| Sinking Ships: Pittsburgh Oklahoma Ohio State Michigan State |
Sinking Ships: Maryland Arkansas Ohio State Saint Joseph’s |
| Conference Breakdown: Big East: 7 ACC: 6 Big 12: 6 SEC: 6 Big Ten: 5 Pac-10: 5 Missouri Valley: 3 Atlantic 10: 2 Mountain West: 2 West Coast: 2 21 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big 12: 6 Pac-10: 6 ACC: 4 Big Ten: 4 SEC: 4 Atlantic 10: 3 Missouri Valley: 3 Mountain West: 3 Conference USA:2 West Coast: 2 20 one-bid conferences |
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail us your comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your own NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout the next few weeks, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer. Despite the extra day in February, March Madness is nearly here.
