NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
March 7, 2008
When the selection committee convenes in an Indianapolis board room next week, the members will have an especially daunting task this season when they must winnow the chaff from the wheat. As conference tournaments progress and bubble teams shift momentum, the committee members will face a constantly evolving landscape from which they must pick the final at-large teams. Every day, several teams pick up big wins or bad losses, which create a cascading effect throughout the RPI numbers and team profiles.
For example, Illinois State went from having four wins against the RPI top 50 on March 4 to having zero on March 5. The Redbirds swept Creighton and Southern Illinois, which were 48 and 50 on the first day but fell to 51 and 52 after New Mexico upset UNLV and Kentucky beat South Carolina on the road to move into the RPI top 50. The committee members have to dig deep into all these teams’ profiles to pick apart the differences when the basic numbers can shift so dramatically from day to day.
Crystal Basketballers Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos gave their best effort to weed through the nitty-gritty details to deliver as accurate a field as possible. Despite their work, Hauptman and Protos remain far apart on the field’s final entrants. Hauptman hands out invitations to Ohio State, Florida, Virginia Tech and Western Kentucky. Meanwhile, Protos prefers Arizona State, Villanova, New Mexico and Mississippi.
Hauptman thinks that as long as the Sun Belt championship game features South Alabama and Western Kentucky, the conference will put two teams into the NCAA Tournament. That would give both teams at least 24 wins on the season. Protos disagrees, citing the Hilltoppers’ anemic schedule that ranks No. 157 in strength and includes a 1-9 record against the RPI top 100. Davidson, of the 0-5 record vs. the top 100 and No. 140 strength of schedule, please take note.
Protos gives the nod to an Arizona State team whose RPI has dipped below 70. Hauptman can’t see the committee giving a bid to a team ranked lower than Florida State, Houston, Temple and Stephen F. Austin. However, Protos likes the Sun Devils’ 5-6 record against the RPI top 50, which is more wins than half of the top 50 has against the others.
Conference tournaments will undoubtedly change the landscape, so check back late next week for an updated Crystal Basketball.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tennessee Memphis UCLA |
Memphis North Carolina Tennessee UCLA |
 Texas Duke Kansas Georgetown |
Texas Duke Kansas Louisville |
 Wisconsin Louisville Stanford Vanderbilt |
Wisconsin Xavier Georgetown Stanford |
 Xavier Indiana Connecticut Washington State |
Notre Dame Marquette Connecticut Vanderbilt |
 Michigan State Notre Dame USC Clemson |
Michigan State Washington State Indiana Purdue |
 Purdue Drake Marquette BYU |
Drake Gonzaga Butler Oklahoma |
 Butler Arizona Kansas State Mississippi State |
Pittsburgh USC Miami BYU |
 Gonzaga Pittsburgh Oklahoma UNLV |
Clemson Kansas State St. Mary’s Arizona |
 Illinois State West Virginia Arkansas Miami |
Baylor Mississippi State West Virginia Massachusetts |
 Ohio State Texas A&M St. Mary’s Kent State |
Kentucky Texas A&M Arizona State UNLV |
 Kentucky Baylor Florida Massachusetts |
Davidson South Alabama Villanova Kent State |
 South Alabama Virginia Tech Davidson Southern Illinois |
VCU Illinois State Arkansas New Mexico |
 Western Kentucky VCU Oral Roberts Stephen F. Austin |
Southern Illinois Mississippi Oral Roberts Cornell* |
 Cornell* Utah State Winthrop Santa Barbara |
Cal State Northridge Boise State UMBC Austin Peay |
 Portland State UMBC Austin Peay Siena |
Belmont Rider Lamar American |
 American Belmont Morgan State Robert Morris Alabama State |
Robert Morris Portland State Morgan State UNC Asheville Alabama State |
 Last 4 In:Massachusetts Virginia Tech Southern Illinois Western Kentucky |
Last 4 In: Arkansas New Mexico Southern Illinois Mississippi |
| First 4 Out: Texas Tech Saint Joseph’s Maryland Syracuse |
First 4 Out: UAB Maryland Florida Saint Joseph’s |
| Shooting Stars: Gonzaga Virginia Tech Louisville Western Kentucky |
Shooting Stars: Gonzaga Massachusetts Miami Virginia Tech |
| Sinking Ships: Kansas State Florida Baylor Southern Illinois |
Sinking Ships: Wake Forest Rhode Island Arizona State Kansas State |
| Conference Breakdown: Big East: 7 Big 12: 6 SEC: 6 ACC: 5 Big Ten: 5 Pac-10: 5 Missouri Valley: 3 Atlantic 10: 2 Mountain West: 2 Sun Belt: 2 West Coast: 2 20 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big 12: 6 Pac-10: 6 SEC: 6 ACC: 4 Big Ten: 4 Missouri Valley: 3 Mountain West: 3 Atlantic 10: 2 West Coast: 2 21 one-bid conferences |
* denotes a team that has won its conference’s automatic bid.
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail us your comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your own NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout the next few weeks, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer. All will be clear soon as Selection Sunday is days away.
