Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Preview
Maryland and Virginia wrapped up the ACC regular season Sunday night, as the Cavaliers beat the Terrapins, who finish with an 8-8 conference record. The loss gives Maryland the No. 6 seed in the ACC Tournament this week. The Terrapins are in a position in which they must win three tournament games to add another quality victory to the résumé.
With less than a week to Selection Sunday, Maryland and No. 4 seed Virginia Tech have the most to gain in the ACC Tournament. To overcome bad losses and wins against weak teams, the Terrapins and Hokies need to pick up wins against No. 1 North Carolina and No. 2 Duke.
For Maryland, the journey starts against No. 11 Boston College in the opening round. A win would match Maryland with No. 3 Clemson. A quarterfinal victory would give Maryland a third crack at Duke, if the Blue Devils handle No. 7 Georgia Tech or No. 10 Virginia. Three ACC Tournament wins, including ones against the Blue Devils and Tigers, would give the Terrapins 21 wins, though only three against the RPI top 50.
The Hokies might be in a better situation than the Terrapins are because they have a bye in the opening round. If No. 5 Miami takes care of No. 12 North Carolina State, the Hokies could win a big game in the quarterfinals before likely getting a shot at the Tar Heels. Although the Hokies lost by almost 40 in their only meeting with the Tar Heels, Virginia Tech needs to play North Carolina again to get a signature victory. A win would be their first victory of the season against a top 50 opponent. With a weak non-conference slate, that might not be enough to deliver a Big Dance invitation to Blacksburg. The Hokies probably need to win the automatic bid – or at least reach the championship game, play No. 2 Duke and make a good impression by competing with the Blue Devils for 40 minutes. Anything else would probably leave Virginia Tech in the NIT.
Miami has the most to lose this week. The Hurricanes ended the regular season by losing at in-state rival Florida State, the No. 9 seed, in overtime. Miami is 8-8 in ACC play and might be in trouble if North Carolina State pulls an opening-round upset. The Hurricanes have good wins against Duke, Clemson, Mississippi State and VCU. But five losses to the bottom third of the ACC would not help the cause.
Georgia Tech won three out of four games to end the regular season with a 7-9 ACC record. The Yellow Jackets have five conference losses by one or two points, so Georgia Tech can hang with almost any team. Of all the opening-round teams, including Maryland and Miami, Georgia Tech might have the best chance to win four games in four days to deliver an unexpected NCAA Tournament bid. The Yellow Jackets have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and feature a talented and athletic lineup.
At the top, North Carolina will probably get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of what the Tar Heels do in the ACC Tournament. However, the Tar Heels likely need to win their quarterfinal game and at least play well in the semifinals to get the overall No. 1 seed and potentially play in Charlotte during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds.
For Duke, the Blue Devils are on pace for a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they cannot afford to lose in the quarterfinals against Georgia Tech or Virginia. Clemson can do the most to improve its seeding by handling Maryland or Boston College, then beating Duke to move into the ACC championship game. If the Tigers win the ACC title, they have a good shot to move as high as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Schedule
Thursday March 13:
No. 8 Wake Forest vs. No. 9 Florida State, 12 p.m.
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m.
No. 7 Georgia Tech vs. No. 10 Virginia, 7 p.m.
No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Boston College, 9:30 p.m.
Friday March 14
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 8 Wake Forest/No. 9 Florida State, 12 p.m.
No. 4 Virginia Tech vs. No. 5 Miami/No. 12 North Carolina State, 2:30 p.m.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech/No. 10 Virginia, 7 p.m.
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 6 Maryland/No. 11 Boston College, 9:30 p.m.
Saturday March 15
First semifinal, 1:30 p.m.
Second semifinal, 4 p.m.
Sunday March 16
ACC championship, 1 p.m.
