Big Ten Conference Notebook
It’s Big Ten Tournament time. Let the games begin.
First Round
Game 1: No. 8 Iowa (13-18, 6-12) vs. No. 9 Michigan (9-21, 5-13)
Season series: Tied 1-1
Analysis: Both teams won on the opposing team’s home court, a rarity in this conference, especially when you consider Iowa beat both Michigan State and Ohio State in Iowa City. A neutral court, therefore, should feel welcoming to both squads. In a game with little upper-class representation, Iowa has three seniors to Michigan’s one. And one of those Hawkeye seniors is guard Justin Johnson, who may be the most important player in this game. Johnson and backcourt mate Tony Freeman are both in the top four in minutes played in conference games, and they’ll need to stay on the court if Iowa wants their season to continue. Iowa is not a deep team, especially at the guard spots. For Michigan, super-frosh Manny Harris will have to play on both ends of the court to give his Wolverines a fighting chance. Freeman and Johnson will launch open threes if you let them, and they’ll make them. Michigan’s perimeter defense will be the key.
Prediction: This game could stay in the 50s, which will help the thinner Hawkeyes. They hit 70 points only once in the conference season. Michigan must push the tempo and make Todd Lickliter rest his guards. I just don’t see Harris and company being able to win out in style over Johnson and Freeman. Iowa 62, Michigan 55.
Game 2: No. 7 Penn State (15-15, 7-11) vs. No. 10 Illinois (13-18, 5-13)
Season series: Penn State 2-0
Analysis: It’s hard to beat the same team three times in a season? Aren’t we tired of that cliché? You know what they say about clichés, and the Illini have won two of their last three. It’s been that kind of year for the Crush – two out of three is encouraging. Penn State, however, without its two best players, Geary Claxton and Jamelle Cornley, somehow knocked off Indiana in their regular season finale. They’ve won three of four. But. No Claxton, no Cornley. Yet, I can’t get myself excited about an Illinois team that’s burned me two consecutive years (see my last two Big Ten previews). I like PSU’s backcourt of Talor Battle and Stanley Pringle, but I’m not sure why. I guess that’s what you get from two sub-par teams. Not much to like.
Prediction: It’s the lesser of two cliches: hard to beat a team thrice or the fool-me once, fool-me twice do-see-do I’m in with Illini. I’m done letting Illinois tempt me. Penn State 68, Illinois 62.
Game 3: No. 6 Minnesota (18-12, 8-10) vs. No. 11 Northwestern (8-21, 1-17)
Season series: Minnesota 2-0
Analysis: I find it hard to come close to thinking about picking a 1-17 team. When you consider that in the first two matchups, the Gophers averaged 87 points and won by 19 and 20, it makes it even more difficult. But this setting is a little different, and Minnesota has been a poor conference tournament team over the years. Still, Northwestern has little other than Kevin Coble that will scare Tubby Smith and company. And even though the Gophers were ninth in the conference in rebounding, they still hauled down nine more boards per game than the Wildcats. Second-chance scoring and overall athleticism in the backcourt and on the wing will be too much for Northwestern to overcome, even if they play stingier.
Prediction: Should be the breeziest of the first round matchups, but Minnesota’s history scares me enough to think this could be a single-digit game. Even so, Minnesota 75, Northwestern 66.
Quarterfinals
Game 4: No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 1 Wisconsin (26-4, 16-2)
Season series: Wisconsin 2-0
Analysis: Iowa kept both regular season games fairly close, but this Badger team is too well-coached and disciplined for me to think they’re in any danger here. Their depth is a huge concern for Iowa, who rotate seven bodies. While Iowa has some athleticism in the middle with Kurt Looby and Cyrus Tate, they lack the gritty presence that Wisconsin has in Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry and Greg Steimsma. Iowa’s backcourt should be able to stay with Trevon Hughes, Michael Flowers and Jason Bohannon, but the variety of options up front will be too much to handle.
Prediction: Iowa hangs in for a while, but Wisconsin wears them down late. Remember, this will be a back-to-back situation for the Hawkeyes, and the Badgers will be well-rested. Wisconsin 68, Iowa 53.
Game 5: No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 5 Ohio State
Season series: Tied 1-1
Analysis: Ohio State has momentum, and their tournament hopes may hinge on this game. Don’t underestimate that factor, and you know Thad Matta will emphasize the importance of this game all week. Jamar Butler has been tremendous for the Buckeyes all season, and averaged 22.5 points in their two wins over Purdue and MSU. He’ll likely play all 40 minutes. MSU has a little more space in its backcourt; Drew Neitzel is averaging a bit more than 31 minutes a game and can count on Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton and Chris Allen for help. Remember: these teams played Sunday and will have a good idea of what each other will try to do. If Ohio State can limit Neitzel like they did Sunday (6 points, 2 assists, 2-9 shooting) and not get pounded on the boards, I like their chances.
Prediction: I think Ohio State will pull together for one more tournament-bid-sealing win. Butler leads the way. Ohio State 66, Michigan State 65.
Game 6: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Purdue (24-7, 15-3)
Season series: Purdue 2-0
Analysis: Purdue coach Matt Painter is in the mix for national coach of the year, as he should be. He’s taken a team with one contributing senior and made them a Sweet 16 contender for sure. Freshmen E’Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel have been better than advertised. Role players have emerged. It’s a solid team that will be great in years to come. And they’re just way out of Penn State’s league.
Prediction: Purdue in an old-fashioned Big Ten beat-down. Purdue 80, Penn State 61.
Game 7: No. 6 Minnesota vs. No. 3 Indiana (25-6, 14-4)
Season series: Indiana 2-0
Analysis: Indiana stole a win from the Gophers in Minneapolis, and broke away down the stretch to win comfortably in Bloomington. So how come I am extremely tempted to pick Minnesota here? Maybe it has something to do with the Hoosiers’ uninspired play under Dan Dakich. Maybe it’s because Minnesota’s only shot at dancing is to win the conference tournament. Or maybe it’s because these things never work out according to seeding, and I’ve yet to make a bold prediction. These things I know: Indiana has the conference player of the year in D.J. White and the most explosive player in the league in Eric Gordon. Minnesota has a decent group of scrappy guys who lack consistency. What could I possibly be thinking?
Prediction: Minnesota stays in this one until the final minute, but can they win? Naw. Indiana 73, Minnesota 69.
Semifinals
Game 8: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Wisconsin
Season series: Wisconsin 1-0
Analysis: Ohio State will be on a high after knocking off Michigan State, but they’ll also be a bit tired. Wisconsin, presumably, will have had a much easier time taking care of Iowa. Tiredness, however, probably could be thrown out the window here, as another Buckeye win would solidify their NCAA tournament status (pending more outrageous upsets). I would like to see the Buckeyes go inside in this contest with Kosta Koufos and Othello Hunter to try to get Wisconsin’s bigs in foul trouble early. Brian Butch is a pain for defenses, as he gives Bo Ryan an outside scoring threat as well as solid rebounding opportunities. His ability to step outside and lure his defender opens up offensive rebounds for fellow scrappers Joe Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry. If OSU can get him out of the game, they’ll have to contend only with Greg Steimsma, who will snag some boards, but contested ones. Wisconsin has a solid defensive backcourt with Michael Flowers and Trevon Hughes, and Krabbenhoft is as pesky as they come. OSU will have to fight for everything, but I expect Jamar Butler and company to be aggressive. They aren’t a great free throw shooting team, but Butler is at 94%. One place the Buckeyes may have an edge is athleticism on the wing. David Lighty and Evan Turner can turn some heads, and they’ll need some explosiveness to penetrate Wisconsin’s stubborn defense.
Prediction: Wisconsin will come out firing early from all angles, forcing the Buckeyes to up the tempo on the defensive end. I think the Buckeyes will have success creating turnovers and will storm back in the second half, but fall short of pulling off the stunner. Wisconsin 63, Ohio State 61.
Game 9: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Purdue
Season series: Indiana 1-0
Analysis: Indiana is the only Big Ten team Purdue didn’t defeat in the regular season, and they’ll want revenge. Indiana, at the time, was still being coached by Kelvin Sampson, and they haven’t looked nearly as sharp under interim head coach Dan Dakich. In the first meeting, Purdue committed only five turnovers and forced Indiana into 23. The Hoosiers are definitely prone to turning the ball over, and Eric Gordon, despite his brilliance, heads that list. Purdue will have to improve their shooting (34% from the floor, 52 from the line) though, to capitalize on those turnovers. Perimeter defense will be crucial for the Boilermakers. Indiana shot 7-11 from deep in the first meeting, led by Armon Bassett’s 4-4 effort. D.J. White is going to get second-chance points. Eric Gordon will take and make shots and get to the free throw line. But if Purdue can control the role players, they should again be able to create some turnovers and capitalize.
Prediction: I expect Purdue to lead the whole way, though maybe not by a huge margin. Purdue 75, Indiana 66.
Final
Game 10: No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 1 Wisconsin
Analysis: Really, it’s hard to analyze a game that requires nine games to play out according to my predictions before it actually happens. Hence, I won’t bother with analysis for a game that has a high possibility of not occurring. I’m almost sure we won’t see No. 1 vs. No. 2 here, but it’s really hard to see where the upset will occur. Anyway, I like Wisconsin to win it all. Don’t look now, but a strong finish by the Badgers, coupled with some mild upsets in the other tournaments, and Wisconsin may be looking at a No. 1 seed.
Prediction: Wisconsin 64, Purdue 59.
