Atlantic 10 Conference 2008-09 Preview
Last season was perhaps one of what could have been for the Atlantic 10. The season started with tremendous promise in non-conference play, as conference teams scored a number of great wins. As January began, there was much discussion that the conference could get four or even five teams in the NCAA Tournament. The end result, however, wasn’t quite what was hoped for: three teams, plus four in the NIT.
The conference looks to follow that up with something better this season, and there is reason to believe it can do that. A look around the conference shows plenty of depth, although there doesn’t appear to be one team that is clearly above the rest like last year. While Xavier may be our pick to win, they aren’t seen as a prohibitive favorite at all. There are plenty of challengers lining up, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Saint Joseph’s, Temple, UMass, Charlotte, La Salle, or a healthy Dayton team were to come out on top.
While seniors carried the conference last season and have thus departed, 2008-09 looks to be far from a wash-out. Though no team returns every starter, the majority of starters return from last season and five schools return four starters. The projected top half of the conference figures to start a total of no more than five freshmen or sophomores, with one of them being a redshirt sophomore. A few schools had banner recruiting years as well, so they will be well-stocked for the future.
In a sign of stability, only one school had a coaching change in the off-season. After taking his name out of consideration for openings at LSU and Providence, former UMass head coach Travis Ford left Amherst to take the head coaching job at Oklahoma State. Replacing him is former Minuteman star Derek Kellogg, who was given a hero’s welcome and is happy to be close to his native Springfield. He was a key component of the teams of the mid-1990s, when the program had national prominence under John Calipari, Kellogg’s former boss at Memphis.
Preseason Awards
Player of the Year: Dionte Christmas, Temple
Top Newcomer: Melquan Bolding, Duquesne
Defensive Player of the Year: Chris Lowe, Massachusetts
Best NBA Prospect: Kenny Frease, Xavier
All-Atlantic 10 Team
Derrick Brown, Jr. F, Xavier
Dionte Christmas, Sr. G, Temple
Rodney Green, Jr. G, La Salle
Chris Lowe, Sr. G, Massachusetts
Ahmad Nivins, Sr. C, Saint Joseph’s
Xavier Musketeers (30-7, 14-2 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Terrell Holloway
Sr. G-F C.J. Anderson (10.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Sr. G-F B.J. Raymond (9.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg)
Jr. F Derrick Brown (10.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.7 apg)
Jr. F-C Jason Love (6.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Musketeers’ non-conference schedule is once again a tough one, and it features seven home games. Visiting Cincinnati will be MAC contender Miami, Auburn, and a reloading Butler team. The Musketeers will play Missouri, then could play Virginia Tech, in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, and also travel to play arch-rival Cincinnati, Duke, Virginia and LSU. After opening Atlantic 10 play at home against Saint Louis, three of the next four are on the road before the LSU game and a difficult three-game homestand against Charlotte, UMass and Temple. They will take on Charlotte, Dayton and Fordham twice.
Outlook: The Musketeers lost a lot from last season, as their seniors were a tremendous group that did a lot of winning. In particular, Drew Lavender will be tough to replace since the only point guards are freshmen, but there’s no lack of talent. Anderson, Raymond and Brown lead a balanced attack, with Brown looking every bit the part of a future star and capable of having a breakout season. Love has solidified the inside nicely, and he’ll have more help from freshman Kenny Frease, a steal for the Musketeers, and Tulsa transfer Jamel McLean. It wouldn’t be a shock if Frease starts before long. While sophomore Dante Jackson is likely the first perimeter player off the bench, Holloway looks to be the best of the freshmen guards. But Brad Redford is plenty capable and can shoot it, Mark Lyons is very athletic and Brian Walsh is very versatile and plays so well within the team concept, so all of them should see minutes. Sean Miller continues to do a terrific job leading this program, and there’s no reason to expect them to slip much despite the personnel losses.
Saint Joseph’s Hawks (21-13, 9-7 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Darrin Govens (9.8 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.3 spg)
Sr. G Tasheed Carr (10.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.6 spg)
Jr. G Garrett Williamson (5.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.1 spg)
So. F Idris Hilliard (1.2 ppg, 1.0 rpg)
Sr. C Ahmad Nivins (14.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.2 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Hawks will play all their home games at the Palestra while renovations are ongoing at Alumni Memorial Fieldhouse. Six of them come in non-conference play, with their season opener against Rider coming at the Wachovia Center. They will host Creighton, Ivy League favorite Cornell, MAAC favorite Siena, Drexel and Penn (which may as well be a home game for the Quakers). The Hawks will open with Texas in the EA Sports Maui Invitational, and also travel for road date with arch-rival Villanova. Three of their first four Atlantic 10 games are at home, and near the end of the season they have what could be a crucial three-game homestand that begins with visits from UMass and Xavier. The Hawks will play UMass, Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure twice.
Outlook: The Hawks took a big hit in terms of size with the graduation of Pat Calathes and Rob Ferguson, but look like they will have enough to contend once again. The perimeter is once again the strength of this team, though they took a hit there with D.J. Rivera’s transfer (although he had trouble staying eligible). Carr settled the point guard spot nicely, while Govens can play both guard spots and is a good defender and Williamson’s value is mainly on the defensive end. The reserves aren’t long on experience, as senior Edwin Lashley has played sparingly in his career and Charoy Bentley has potential but didn’t play much as a freshman. Chris Prescott could see a lot of minutes right away and is another who can play both guard spots. Up front, Nivins could be the best post player in the conference, but he has to rebound better given his size and athleticism. Hilliard was a bit player last season but was in every game and has the talent to be a fine complement. There’s not a lot of depth here, so an injury or serious foul trouble could put them in a bind.
Temple Owls (21-13, 11-5 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Luis Guzman (3.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Jr. G Ryan Brooks (8.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Sr. G Dionte Christmas (19.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.3 spg)
So. F Lavoy Allen (8.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.5 bpg)
Sr. C Sergio Olmos (5.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.4 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Owls will play just three home games in their non-conference schedule, which hasn’t become lighter in the post-John Chaney era. They open the season with three games in the Charleston Classic, and the home games are all tough ones: MAC contenders Miami and Kent State, as well as Tennessee, visit the Liacouras Center. The toughest road games are at Kansas and in the Big Five, including Villanova. After opening Atlantic 10 play at UMass, three of their next four games are at home. The Owls get La Salle, Rhode Island and Saint Joseph’s twice.
Outlook: Four starters return for the Owls, and they have a few others waiting in the wings to support them. It starts with Christmas, who led the conference in scoring last season and could certainly do it again. Brooks could be the player to move into the starting lineup, and if Guzman and reserve Semaj Inge can improve at the point, the Owls will be in good shape on the perimeter despite losing do-everything wing Mark Tyndale. Allen and Olmos lead an unspectacular but improving frontcourt, and redshirt freshman Michael Eric should get some minutes in the middle as well. A key area for improvement is rebounding, as the Owls were out-rebounded last year. Quietly, Fran Dunphy has rebuilt this program quickly, as the Owls had gone seven years between NCAA Tournament appearances before last season. This season, they should keep their new streak going.
Charlotte 49ers (20-14, 9-7 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G DiJuan Harris (3.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 3.2 apg)
Jr. G Ian Andersen (5.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg)
Jr. F An’Juan Wilderness (8.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg)
Sr. F Charlie Coley (8.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 1.3 spg)
Sr. F Lamont Mack (12.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.4 apg)
Schedule Highlights: The non-conference slate has seven home games and is full of challenges. The 49ers open with two straight at home, including Colonial contender Old Dominion, and later host Clemson, Tulsa and Winthrop. They will play in the loaded 76 Classic in Anaheim, where they first play Arizona State and either Providence or Baylor in their second of three games. Later road games are at Mississippi State, Southern Illinois and Maryland. After they open Atlantic 10 play at Duquesne and host Tulsa, the next five conference games are tough ones: La Salle (home), Saint Joseph’s (road), UMass (home), and trips to Temple and Xavier. The 49ers get George Washington, Richmond and Xavier twice.
Outlook: The 49ers had a quietly good year in 2007-08, defying expectations without much fanfare. While they lose their best player in Leemire Goldwire, they return the other four starters and have a solid core of upperclassmen to lead the way. Harris runs the show capably, but he won’t have the kind of support it looked like he would have since Michael Gerrity abruptly left school. Anderson is the main holdover alongside Harris and should start, although sophomore Charles Dewhurst will be in the mix as well. All three starters in the frontcourt are versatile, and only Wilderness isn’t a threat from long range in addition to inside. Coley should fill the stat sheet once again, and Wilderness could play a few positions. If junior Phil Jones continues to improve his conditioning, the frontcourt will be even better with his big body, and sophomore Gaby Ngoundjo is also in the rotation. The 49ers had the best turnover margin in the conference last year, aided by forcing more than all but one team. That helped them offset having the worst field goal percentage in the conference, something they’ll need to improve on.
Massachusetts Minutemen (25-11, 10-6 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Chris Lowe (11.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 6.3 apg, 1.7 spg)
Jr. G Ricky Harris (18.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.6 spg)
So. G Anthony Gurley (transfer from Wake Forest)
Sr. F-C Tony Gaffney (3.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.7 bpg)
Sr. C Luke Bonner (3.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Minutemen have six home games on tap in another challenging non-conference schedule, highlighted by visits from Boston College (the annual Commonwealth Classic) and Vanderbilt. They open the season in the 2K Sports Classic in the Carbondale region, where they could play host Southern Illinois in the second game, and also travel to Memphis, Kansas (in Kansas City) and Houston. In Atlantic 10 play, the Minutemen don’t have consecutive home or away games until two straight at home followed by back-to-back road games to open February. The Minutemen get La Salle, Rhode Island and Saint Joseph’s twice.
Outlook: The Minutemen have a new head coach in former star Derek Kellogg, but should still contend as the offense will be similar and they have a group of players well-suited to it. The backcourt of Lowe and Harris will carry this team, with Harris being one of the most improved players in the country last year and Lowe running like he’s shot out of a cannon in the open floor. Gurley should feel at home right away in this offense, as should top recruit David Gibbs, who should be one of the first guards off the bench. Sophomores Gary Correia and Matt Glass are both capable of shooting, and they could figure into the rotation as well. The frontcourt is where the Minutemen are lacking, though Gaffney has been reborn in the role of energy guy and defensive stopper inside. Bonner isn’t a major presence inside, so newcomers like redshirts Tyrell Lynch and Travon Wilcher and little-used sophomores Matt Hill and Trey Lang will need to improve. The thin frontcourt is especially concerning when one considers the Minutemen were out-rebounded last year.
La Salle Explorers (15-17, 8-8 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Rodney Green (13.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.4 spg)
Jr. G Ruben Guillandeaux (7.7 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2.1 apg)
Jr. F Yves Mekongo Mbala (8.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Sr. F Paul Johnson (6.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.6 apg)
So. F Jerrell Williams (9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Schedule Highlights: After a couple of light years, the Explorers have a challenging non-conference slate that features nine home games. Early on, they host Florida State, then later host Villanova (Big Five), Northeast contender Mount St. Mary’s and Ivy League contender Penn (Big Five). The Explorers will play in the Paradise Jam in St. Thomas, opening with Connecticut, and also have road dates with America East contender Hartford and Ivy League favorite Cornell. Six of their first nine conference games are on the road, including a tough early stretch with games at Charlotte, Xavier and UMass after they host Temple. But starting in mid-February, they have a stretch where five of six are at home and the only road game is just down the street at Temple. The Explorers will play George Washington, UMass and Temple twice.
Outlook: A couple of years ago, the Explorers had a team with a lot of youth and a ways to go. Now, things should start to pay off, and during Atlantic 10 play last season they showed signs of what they will be capable of this season. Juniors Green, Guillandeaux, Mbala and Kimmani Barrett have all played significant minutes since arriving on campus, and they’ll help spearhead this team. Green is ready to become a star, while Guillandeaux can really light it up from long range and Barrett and Mbala are solid role players. Johnson is the team’s only senior and provides a steady presence at one forward spot, and Jerrell Williams had a solid freshman season. Mississippi State transfer Vernon Goodridge could easily grab one of the frontcourt starting spots and should make an instant impact, making this team even deeper. As promising as things look, the Explorers won’t take the next steps if they don’t take better care of the ball after leading the conference in turnovers last season, and it wouldn’t hurt if they improve at the defensive end after opponents shot 46.6 percent from the field against them last season, which was worst in the conference in that category.
Dayton Flyers (23-11, 8-8 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G London Warren (4.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.4 spg)
Jr. G Marcus Johnson (10.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg)
So. F Chris Wright (10.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg in 15 games)
Sr. F Charles Little (8.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Jr. C Kurt Huelsman (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: Dayton’s challenging non-conference schedule features ten home games, including two to start the Chicago Invitational Challenge. Among the teams making visits are Marshall, George Mason and Miami (Ohio). The Flyers’ toughest road games are at Auburn, Marquette and Creighton. Three of their first four Atlantic 10 games are on the road, but right after that is a three-game homestand. The Flyers get Duquesne, Saint Louis and Xavier twice.
Outlook: Last season looked like it could be a storybook one for the Flyers when they got off to a great start, before injuries helped derail the effort. They lose star guard Brian Roberts, but the Flyers still have a solid cast returning that includes Wright, who starred early on and whose injury was a major blow to the team. With Wright and Johnson on the wings, the Flyers certainly don’t lack athleticism or scoring punch, and they provide good targets for defensive-minded point guard Warren, who should step into the starting lineup. There’s solid depth on the perimeter if junior college transfer Rob Lowery and freshmen Stephen Thomas, Paul Williams and Chris Johnson contribute right away. Little is solid even if playing as an undersized power forward, and though he would project to start, he’s done so well coming off the bench that they might leave him in that role and start someone else in that spot. Huelsman doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he’s solid defensively and has been a model of stability since arriving on campus as the only player to start every game the past two seasons. With a healthy Wright and taking better care of the ball – only George Washington had a worse assist/turnover ratio in the conference last season – the Flyers could have a chance to contend for the top of the conference.
Richmond Spiders (16-15, 9-7)
Projected Starters:
So. G Kevin Anderson (10.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.8 spg)
Jr. G Ryan Butler (5.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.4 spg)
Jr. G-F David Gonzalvez (11.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg)
Sr. F Jarhon Giddings (3.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg)
Fr. C Josh Duinker
Schedule Highlights: The Spiders will play seven non-conference home games, a couple of which will be major challenges. They will host Colonial favorite VCU and Wake Forest in consecutive games, and Bucknell comes right after them to close a four-game homestand. The Spiders open the season in the CBE Classic at Syracuse, then play three games in Fort Myers. Later, they travel to take on Colonial contender Old Dominion and Virginia Tech. A notable stretch in conference play comes near the end of January, when they host Saint Joseph’s before traveling to play at Temple and UMass. The Spiders will play Charlotte, George Washington and Saint Louis twice.
Outlook: Last season, the Spiders were better than advertised and looked like they might contend a little earlier than projected. The outlook for this year was excellent, then star forward Dan Geriot tore his ACL in a summer game and will miss the season. But don’t count the Spiders out yet, as they have a lot of good parts and most of the team has good experience in Chris Mooney’s system. Anderson had a solid freshman season and runs the show well, while Butler is a complement to Gonzalvez, who can fill a stat sheet and has plenty of range on his jumper. The frontcourt still has some capable bodies with Geriot gone, though none are quite as good. Duinker appears to be the most likely candidate to move into Geriot’s spot in the starting lineup and could be one of the better freshmen in the conference. Giddings is the lone senior on the roster, while sophomores Kevin Smith and Justin Harper should get good minutes off the bench and contribute more. The Spiders will need to improve on defense after allowing opponents to shoot over 44 percent from the field last season, and they also had the worst rebounding margin in the conference. While they could battle for a top-four spot, more than likely they are a year away.
Rhode Island Rams (21-12, 7-9 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
So. G Marquis Jones (1.7 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1.7 apg)
Sr. G Jimmy Baron (14.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.9 apg)
Jr. F Delroy James (3.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg)
Sr. F Kaheim Seawright (9.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 bpg)
Sr. C Jason Francis (2.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Rams have six non-conference home games on tap as part of a challenging slate. Highlighting the home slate are visits from Colonial favorite VCU and America East contender Hartford, the latter as part of the Philly Classic. The Rams will play two games at the Palestra as part of the Philly Classic, first against Penn State and then either Villanova or Towson. The tough road games are at Duke, Colonial contender Northeastern, arch-rival Providence, and against Oklahoma State in the O’Reilly All-College Basketball Classic. Atlantic 10 play starts off tough, with three of the first four games coming at Saint Joseph’s, home against Xavier and at Richmond. The Rams get Fordham, UMass and Temple twice.
Outlook: Last season started off with a lot of promise before defensive struggles led to a 2-9 finish to the regular season and the NIT. The Rams return a veteran team with a lot of capable players, and as Jim Baron continues his “Runnin’ Rams” style, they’ll need all of them. The point guard spot will be a battle between freshman Stevie Mejia and Jones, a defensive specialist whose offense should improve. Jimmy Baron is one of the best shooters in the country and has improved other aspects of his game nicely. The third guard is junior Keith Cothran, who was part of a unit that came off the bench and changed games often with a lot of energy. James has the inside track at small forward, but the Rams could start Cothran to have three guards and freshman Jamal Wilson figures to be in the mix as well. Seawright anchors the front line with solid rebounding, a good feel for the game and no lack of effort, while Francis runs the floor better than his 280-pound body might suggest. Connecticut transfer Ben Eaves is a live body and freshman Orion Outerbridge is a long and athletic big man who needs to gain strength. Defense is undoubtedly being stressed a great deal by the coaching staff, as only two teams in the Atlantic 10 allowed more points than the Rams and opponents shot nearly 46 percent against them in conference play.
Saint Louis Billikens (16-15, 7-9 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Kwamain Mitchell
Sr. G Tommie Liddell (12.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Sr. G Kevin Lisch (14.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg)
Sr. F Barry Eberhardt (6.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg)
Fr. C Brett Thompson
Schedule Highlights: The Billikens play nine non-conference home games in brand new Chaifetz Arena, including two in the Findlay Toyota Las Vegas Classic before heading to Las Vegas for two more (against DePaul and either Creighton or Fresno State). Among the teams making visits are Kent State, Boston College and America East contender UMBC. The toughest road games are at Nebraska and Southern Illinois. Early Atlantic 10 games in January make up a tough stretch, as their first six games include Xavier (road), UMass (home), Temple (road), Richmond (home) and Dayton (road). The Billikens play Dayton, Duquesne and Richmond twice.
Outlook: There was no doubt that last year would be a transition year for the Billikens, but it was one of extremes. They had close losses and blowouts where they looked more than over-matched, and they also had a few good wins. Offense was the prime reason for it, as they played an entirely different system than what holdovers like Liddell and Lisch knew. Lisch had a smoother transition since a lot of his game is shooting, while the versatile Liddell was more up and down. Mitchell should solidify the backcourt as one of their top newcomers, and classmates like Femi John and Ruben Cotto are likely to see minutes off the bench. The frontcourt has Eberhardt as its only holdover, but there is good talent as Thompson should start right away and 6’11” classmate Willie Reed should also play a role. The Billikens will be very young and a tale of polar opposites with three seniors and seven freshmen, so the transition-type results may continue this season.
Duquesne Dukes (17-13, 7-9 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Aaron Jackson (9.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.4 spg)
Fr. G Melquan Bolding
Fr. G-F B.J. Monteiro
So. G-F Bill Clark (8.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.4 apg)
So. F Damian Saunders (6.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.3 bpg, 1.5 spg)
Schedule Highlights: The Dukes will play seven home games in non-conference, a slate that has a very difficult stretch starting in late November. The highlight of the non-conference slate is the stretch beginning at Duke, then at Pittsburgh and Big South contender Radford, and home to West Virginia and Colonial contender Old Dominion. They also host MAC sleeper Bowling Green to close out non-conference play. Three of the first four Atlantic 10 games are at home, and in February they will hit a tough stretch of five games: home against Xavier, at Richmond, home against Temple, then at La Salle and UMass. The Dukes will play Dayton, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis twice.
Outlook: With several key players having departed, the Dukes are at the point one might have expected in Ron Everhart’s first or second season as the roster contains just one senior and no juniors. There’s plenty of talent, and they’re suited to Everhart’s running style, but experience is lacking save for Jackson, who could move between both guard spots to make room at times for heralded freshman point guard Eric Evans. Bolding, who had committed to Louisville, and Monteiro are two more wings that can run, score and shoot, and they complement Clark well as he’s also quite strong. After Saunders, who had a nice freshman season, the frontcourt lacks proven bodies, and there are some questions among the newcomers. Shawntez Patterson needs to gain weight, Rodrigo Peggau had knee surgery and Aleksander Milovic is the wild card in the group. (For good measure, Saunders had surgery in May to repair a torn ligament in his ankle, but should be ready to go before the season opener.) Little-used sophomore David Theis could get more minutes, and as one of the most experienced frontcourt players on the roster he will certainly get the chance.
George Washington Colonials (9-17, 5-11 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
So. G Travis King (redshirt)
So. G Xavier Alexander (4.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Sr. F Wynton Witherspoon (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)
Sr. F Rob Diggs (13.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg)
Jr. F Damien Hollis (9.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Schedule Highlights: The Colonials will be challenged in a non-conference slate that includes four home games and another in the nation’s capital, a date with Maryland at the Verizon Center in the BB&T Classic. Home games come against America East contenders Binghamton and UMBC, as well as Ivy League contender Harvard and Patriot League favorite American. The Colonials will hit the road for games at America East contender Boston University, Auburn, and three games in the Rainbow Classic. They get no breaks in conference play, as they get Charlotte, La Salle and Richmond twice, and the only games against UMass, Saint Joseph’s and Xavier are on the road.
Outlook: Everyone knew the Colonials would miss Carl Elliott, but just how much wasn’t apparent until last season. King had to miss the season with a knee injury, and Maureece Rice didn’t work out there before he was kicked off the team late in the season. King should be the incumbent, but walk-on Johnny Lee should get some minutes after starting the last eight games last season. Both will be pushed by freshman Tony Taylor, who is also a good scorer. Alexander and senior Noel Wilmore, who improved his stroke to where he hit 42 percent of his three-pointers last season, will get most of the minutes at shooting guard. The frontcourt is where the Colonials have most of their talent, as Witherspoon, Diggs and Hollis are all athletic, with Diggs being a solid inside player as well. Several players will battle for minutes off the bench, ranging from junior Herman Opoku to sophomore big man Joseph Katuka and redshirt freshman Jabari Edwards, and true freshman Aaron Ware could see minutes right away on the wing as well. The Colonials were fine on defense last season, as only Xavier was better in field goal percentage defense. It was on offense, where only two teams turned the ball over more and only one shot it worse, where they ran into trouble. Having King back should help at that end of the floor.
Fordham Rams (12-17, 6-10 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Jio Fontan
Jr. G Brenton Butler (11.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.2 apg)
So. G-F Mike Moore (5.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg)
Sr. F Chris Bethel (3.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg in 11 games)
Sr. C Luke Devine
Schedule Highlights: The Rams have seven home games in a lighter non-conference slate, all of which come in a nine-game stretch before they head to Miami for the FIU Holiday Tournament that includes Ohio Valley contender UT-Martin. They travel to Villanova and MAC sleeper Bowling Green, while hosting MAAC contender Fairfield and America East contender New Hampshire. In conference play, they get Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure and Xavier twice.
Outlook: This team was one of the bigger disappointments last season, as the Rams were a senior-laden team from which much was expected. While it’s back to the drawing board, there is good talent here, and the youthful exuberance might be just what the doctor ordered. Fontan should run the show from day one, as he’s a solid floor leader who has done plenty of winning from his days at powerhouse St. Anthony’s and traveling with the Playaz in the offseason. Butler is the top returning scorer, and there’s experience in junior Herb Tanner and more talent and intangibles in Fontan’s high school teammate, freshman Alberto Estwick, as well as fellow freshman Trey Blue. Moore had a nice freshman season and should be ready for a better season. The Rams might have to play small often because the frontcourt is thin and full of question marks. Bethel is a warrior, but has had trouble staying eligible, so someone else will have to help West Virginia transfer Jacob Green up front once he is eligible in December. There’s plenty of talent on the perimeter, but the lack of bodies inside and experience on the perimeter are reasons why the Rams aren’t likely to contend this season.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies (8-22, 2-14 Atlantic 10)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Ray Blackburn (junior college transfer)
Jr. G Lewis Leonard (junior college transfer)
Sr. F Tyler Benson (5.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.2 apg)
Jr. F Maurice Thomas (transfer from UTEP)
Sr. C D’Lancy Carter (6.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: Six home games are on tap in non-conference play, including the season opener against Mark Schmidt’s former school, Robert Morris, as part of the Garden State Tip-Off that concludes with two games at Rutgers. The Bonnies will also host Mississippi State and MAAC contender Niagara. The toughest road/neutral games look to be at Rutgers against Colonial contender Delaware and the Scarlet Knights, while they also travel to Bucknell. In Atlantic 10 play, the Bonnies will play Duquesne, Fordham and Saint Joseph’s twice.
Outlook: Second-year coach Mark Schmidt continues the rebuilding project with a team that should start three newcomers after the top three scorers departed. The perimeter has more talent now, with a quick floor leader in Blackburn and good wings in Leonard and Jonathan Hall, who could also snag a starting spot after winning a junior college national title last year. Washington State transfer Chris Matthews should also be in the mix. Thomas should join Carter in the frontcourt, which has a lot of unproven bodies after them that include freshmen Da’Quan Cook (redshirt) and Marquis Simmons. Schmidt has improved the talent level, but there’s always an adjustment from junior college to Division I, and there’s also the challenge of blending everyone together.
Conference Outlook
The Atlantic 10 might not have a lot of big names nationally, but there is plenty of talent and the conference could certainly surpass last season’s showing. Most importantly, there is excellent depth; Xavier is not a lock to win, and any of the next four teams could certainly top them. It says something about this conference that La Salle, Dayton and Richmond are picked sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively. The bottom four teams are all rebuilding, but all could be capable of knocking off a contending team come February or being better than advertised, as was the case with La Salle and Richmond last season.
